地缘政治平衡变化

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亚开行总裁神田真人:不会回到特朗普前的世界
日经中文网· 2025-07-31 02:38
Core Viewpoint - The world has fundamentally changed due to shifts in geopolitical balance and international order, particularly influenced by U.S. policy changes under the "Trump 2.0" era, making a return to the pre-Trump world impossible [1][2]. Group 1: Geopolitical and Economic Context - The current era is characterized by "unprecedented uncertainty," with a need for countries to build more resilient domestic and regional economies in response to over-reliance on external factors [2]. - Discussions with leaders from approximately 20 countries highlight a consensus on using the current crisis as an opportunity for reform [2]. Group 2: Impact on Asian Economies - There is a growing recognition that over-dependence on the U.S. as a final consumer is a lesson learned, prompting a focus on strengthening domestic markets across Asian nations [3]. - Key strategies include diversifying industrial structures, trade partners, and supply chains, as well as enhancing capital markets and regional connectivity [3]. Group 3: Investment Climate - The uncertainty stemming from U.S. tariff policies has led to a slowdown in private sector investment, with increased market volatility and risk of capital outflows [3]. - Despite these challenges, there is an optimistic outlook among global business leaders regarding the potential for new opportunities in supply chain restructuring [3]. Group 4: ADB's Financial Position - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has maintained a strong relationship with the U.S., with positive feedback from U.S. officials regarding ADB's alignment with U.S. national interests [4]. - Since 2009, ADB has not increased its capital contributions but has created a financing capacity of $100 billion, increasing its financing volume by 50% without additional burdens on contributing countries [4]. Group 5: Loan Policies and Global Sentiment - ADB's loans to China have halved in recent years, with a shift towards international public investments that benefit other countries, particularly in environmental and biodiversity areas [5]. - Rising populist sentiments in the U.S. and other countries reflect a broader discontent with the ruling class, influencing international financial dynamics and policies [5].