中国商务部两份公告，瞬间引爆全球高科技和军工产业链。2025年9月，安永、麦肯锡、英国金融时报 等多家权威机构罕见发出相同警告：全球稀土资源流向将迎来历史性大洗牌，国际供应链或将经历"断 层级"冲击。半导体、人工智能、军工、电动汽车等行业的高管，正经历一场前所未有的心理"地震"。 全球高科技产业链的命门 稀土之争，远非单一的资源之争，更是产业链、技术链、价值链的多重对抗。稀土元素在全球范围内的 应用覆盖了电动汽车马达、风电发电机、高性能磁材、智能手机、精密制导武器、雷达系统等数十个关 键领域。表面上看，稀土原料在全球并非独一无二；但真正决定产业高地的，却是稀土分离、冶炼、深 加工，以及衍生技术的掌控权。 权威数据显示，2025年全球稀土产业链的技术壁垒已达历史新高。美国、日本、欧盟虽然自诩"技术储 备雄厚"，但在稀土分离、精炼和磁材制造等环节，仍然无法摆脱对中国的高度依赖。国际能源署 （IEA）和世界银行的最新分析指出，稀土产业的"卡脖子"环节，在全球供应链重构的进程中，地缘政 治风险大幅上升。美国一度高调宣布"突破稀土提纯技术"，可现实是多家企业试图商业化量产时，依然 面临成本高企、环境管控难题、产品一致性 ...

«——【·前言·】——» 中国矿产暂缓跟必和必拓的美元铁矿石订单，消息传开，全球市场直接懵圈，这可不是小打小闹的商业矛盾，分明是战略上的主动表态。 文丨编辑 来科点谱 之前中澳谈了好几轮都卡着不动：必和必拓非要把矿价涨15%，还死抓着美元结算不松口，国内钢厂早被价格、汇率两座大山压得没了利润。 谈不拢就掀桌子，中方敢这么硬气，是早有三根支柱撑着：巴西、俄罗斯的矿能补缺口，人民币结算已铺开，定价权也在抢，这盘大棋早下了。 铁矿供应不再被卡脖子 先说第一根支柱：供应链重构，过去咱们被动得厉害，铁矿石进口差不多八成得靠澳大利亚和巴西，人家一联合涨价，下游钢企就只能吞着，根本没有议价 空间，被人卡脖子的日子谁都不想过。 所以打破这两个大国垄断，实现供应多元化，成了头等大事，这几年布局开始出成果，最亮眼的就是非洲几内亚西芒杜铁矿，这个项目中国主导，被业内称 作铁矿界的"航母"。 预计今年年底第一批矿石就能出海，明年产能直接冲到1.2亿吨，这意味着全球市场上多了一个超大型供应商，直接冲击了原有供给格局。 除了非洲，其他地方也没闲着，北边邻居俄罗斯通过跨境铁路出口的铁矿量，今年同比增长22%，有意思的是，其中约一半用人民币 ...

海风吹过码头，吊车停着，只有水声在金属之间回荡。这是往年不会出现的静。每到新作上市的季节，美国各港常常昼夜装船，车队蜿蜒至公路尽头。如 今，9月的海面像退了温。9月23日，美国农业部公布最新统计，对华大豆出口订单一栏醒目地写着"零"。同一份数据还显示，全国大豆库存已压到4.2亿蒲 式耳，创近五年来高位。换算成重量，大约相当于一千一百多万吨豆子，正躺在仓里吃灰。 冷清的码头与不见的订单 对于美国农民而言，中国不只是一个"重要客户"，而是长年累月稳稳当当地最大买家。订单消失的背后，资金链的声音最刺耳：仓满则款紧，贷款周转难， 设备检修也得往后排。去年此时，爱荷华州的约翰·威尔逊已经卖掉了自家2000英亩大豆产量的八成；今年，他只卖出了15%。他开始盘算改种玉米，可亩 均约200美元的转换成本像一道坎。种植结构不是说改就改，播种、肥料、收割机的设置、与粮仓的交割协议，都要重来一遍。 政策强硬的另一面 几天后，9月27日，美国国土安全部发布文件，把"加征关税的征收工作"划入政府停摆期间的必要职能之列。这意味着就算联邦政府因预算分歧短暂关门， 关税也不会停。关税征收的实际执行者是隶属国土安全部的海关与边境保护局，它在停 ...

Group 1 - U.S. soybean farmers are facing an unprecedented crisis as China's market share for U.S. soybeans has plummeted from a peak of 34% to less than 5% [1] - The American Soybean Association has issued frequent distress signals as soybean prices continue to decline, with former President Trump calling for China to restore large-scale purchases of U.S. soybeans [1][16] - China's Ministry of Commerce has stated that the U.S. must first remove unreasonable tariffs to expand soybean trade, highlighting the core issue of the current U.S.-China trade deadlock [4] Group 2 - The imposition of a 25% retaliatory tariff by China on U.S. soybeans has led to a significant increase in costs, resulting in a projected 28% decline in U.S. soybean exports for 2024 and record-high inventory levels [6] - China has developed a global procurement network with Brazil as the primary supplier, accounting for over 85% of China's soybean imports from January to August 2025 [6][8] - China's self-sufficiency in soybeans has increased by nearly 7 percentage points in 2024, aided by new agricultural cooperation projects and reduced demand for soybeans in animal feed [8] Group 3 - The economic crisis in the U.S. soybean industry is evolving into a political crisis, with a 60% year-on-year decline in U.S. soybean exports to China expected in the second half of 2024, leading to a five-year low in Chicago soybean futures [10] - Bankruptcy applications among farmers in the Midwest have increased by 35%, putting pressure on Republican lawmakers as farmers express dissatisfaction and threaten to change their voting preferences [10][12] - The Trump administration faces a dilemma between maintaining high tariffs to protect U.S. industries and addressing the needs of the farming community, with $12 billion allocated in 2024 as agricultural subsidies [12] Group 4 - The resolution of the U.S.-China soybean trade deadlock hinges on the U.S. government's willingness to remove unreasonable tariffs, as emphasized by China's Ministry of Commerce [14] - The market dynamics suggest that political interventions will lead to mutual losses, and the key to restoring U.S. soybean exports to China lies in rational policy changes from the U.S. [14]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future growth and profitability [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a global innovative manufacturer of disposable materials, focusing on the personal care sector, with significant growth potential driven by the upgrade of hygiene materials in overseas markets [6][7]. - The company has established strong relationships with major clients, which enhances its market position and revenue stability [6][28]. - The financial projections indicate a substantial increase in net profit, with a CAGR of +94% expected from 2025 to 2027, reflecting the anticipated growth in demand for its products [7][9]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1,485 million yuan in 2024 to 2,700 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.3% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 27 million yuan in 2024 to 198 million yuan in 2027, with a significant increase of 119.6% in 2025 [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.08 yuan in 2024 to 0.60 yuan in 2027 [2]. Business Model and Competitive Advantage - The company has a leading position in the production of functional materials for hygiene products, with a focus on innovative product development [16][26]. - It has a strong R&D platform and a global supply chain, which are key competitive advantages that allow it to meet the demands of international hygiene product giants [6][7]. - The company’s unique three-dimensional perforated non-woven fabric technology creates a significant technical barrier, enhancing product value and profitability [6][7]. Market Opportunities - The report highlights a substantial market opportunity in the overseas hygiene materials sector, estimating a replacement market size exceeding 50 billion yuan for hot air non-woven fabrics [6][7]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing restructuring of supply chains by international giants, which will likely lead to increased orders and revenue [6][7]. Financial Quality and Growth Potential - The financial statements indicate a typical pattern of "capacity expansion first, order fulfillment later," suggesting that as production capacity ramps up, profitability will improve [6][9]. - The report anticipates a turning point in financial quality, with expectations of improved profit margins as operational efficiencies are realized [6][9].

Core Insights - JD.com is integrating its supply chain capabilities with artificial intelligence (AI) to drive comprehensive supply chain reconstruction, enhancing operational efficiency and decision-making processes across various industries [3][4]. Group 1: AI Applications in Logistics and Manufacturing - JD's "Wolf Pack" robots utilize advanced models for full-domain perception, enabling proactive decision-making and efficient navigation in over 500 warehouses globally [2]. - The JD Industrial division has developed an intelligent agent capable of processing vast amounts of material information, significantly improving efficiency in product governance by over 10 times compared to traditional methods [2]. - JD's logistics "Super Brain Model 2.0" enhances operational efficiency by 20% through optimal resource allocation and autonomous decision-making capabilities [7]. Group 2: AI Innovations in E-commerce - JD's retail innovation AI architecture, Oxygen, assists brands in strategizing new product launches and streamlining marketing operations, resulting in reduced costs and improved efficiency [2][5]. - The upcoming JD Xi APP will allow users to perform various tasks through natural language, enhancing the shopping experience by providing personalized recommendations based on extensive data analysis [5]. Group 3: AI-Driven Supply Chain Collaboration - AI tools have been integrated into the entire business process for over 300,000 merchants, facilitating more than 30 million operational decisions weekly [7]. - JD's industrial AI model, trained on 57.1 million SKUs, supports over 10,000 industrial enterprises, providing solutions that significantly reduce operational costs and time [8]. Group 4: Future AI Developments - JD plans to invest continuously in AI over the next three years, aiming to create a trillion-dollar AI ecosystem that prioritizes trust and efficiency [4]. - The company is focused on deepening AI applications in various sectors, including digital personas for brand representation and customer engagement [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The sudden closure of the Polish border has led to significant disruptions in the supply chain for automotive parts between China and Europe, prompting Chinese car manufacturers to urgently restructure their operations to mitigate the impact [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Supply Chain - The Central European Railway is a critical channel for transporting precision automotive parts from China to Europe, accounting for approximately 35% of the transport share. The abrupt border closure has caused a "shock" to this vital artery, leading to a deep crisis in supply chain security for the global automotive industry [2]. - The automotive industry's reliance on cross-border transport and precise timing for key components such as control systems, sensors, and battery modules makes it highly vulnerable to disruptions. If transport issues persist, major production bases in Germany, France, Czech Republic, and Slovakia may face production cuts or delays in new product launches [2]. Group 2: Chinese Automotive Companies' Response - In response to the supply crisis, Chinese automotive companies have activated emergency plans focusing on localizing production, diversifying logistics, and enhancing technological independence. BYD's local supply capabilities in Hungary now cover 80% of the Central European market, reducing transportation costs by approximately 25% [3]. - Companies are exploring new logistics patterns, such as utilizing the "China-Southeast Asia-Mediterranean" shipping route to mitigate risks associated with the Central European Railway. This includes leveraging roll-on/roll-off shipping through Vietnam and Thailand to reduce reliance on a single transport channel [3]. Group 3: Long-term Strategic Considerations - The logistics crisis serves as a warning for the entire industry, emphasizing the need for supply chain designs that balance efficiency with security in the context of geopolitical risks. Future supply chains are likely to favor "multi-point distribution" to reduce transcontinental dependencies [4]. - The incident highlights the importance of incorporating historical geopolitical factors into risk assessment mechanisms, as events like military exercises and elections can trigger supply chain disruptions [4]. Group 4: Global Automotive Market Implications - The current situation, while a challenge, also presents an opportunity for Chinese automotive companies to drive industry upgrades and strategic adjustments. The crisis underscores the necessity for supply chains to be resilient against geopolitical risks while adapting to market demand changes [6]. - The experience and strategies of Chinese companies in navigating this crisis may provide valuable insights for global automotive firms, emphasizing the need to find a precise balance between efficiency and security in an uncertain international environment [5].

Core Viewpoint - Liu Qiangdong's recent public appearances and initiatives, particularly the "JD Wine Tasting Event," have significantly increased his visibility, overshadowing other tech entrepreneurs like Lei Jun. This event marks JD's strategic entry into the wine and travel industry, showcasing a new business model that combines hotel stays with wine tasting experiences [2][4]. Company Strategy - JD has officially entered the wine and travel sector, launching the "JD Wine Tasting Event" to explore the potential of combining hotel and wine experiences. The event sold out 100 hotel rooms within 30 minutes, indicating strong market interest [2][4]. - Liu Qiangdong emphasized the importance of maintaining friendly competition with Meituan, suggesting that personal relationships should not be affected by business rivalries. He expressed a desire to resolve misunderstandings through direct communication [5][6][8]. Competitive Landscape - The competition between JD and Meituan has intensified, particularly in the food delivery and travel sectors. JD's entry into these markets is seen as a direct challenge to Meituan's core revenue streams [5][12]. - Liu Qiangdong's strategy involves leveraging JD's supply chain capabilities to optimize costs in the hotel industry, potentially increasing profit margins. He noted that the average gross margin in the hotel industry is 60%, and JD aims to reduce costs by 20% through supply chain efficiencies [14][17]. Financial Insights - The profitability of the wine and travel business is significantly higher than that of food delivery. For instance, Meituan's wine and travel segment reported a net profit margin of 46%, compared to just 6.7% for its food delivery business [16]. - JD's net profit margin has been declining, with projections for 2024 at 3.85%, down from 2.73% in the first half of the year. The company is looking to the wine and travel sector as a potential avenue for improving profitability [14][16]. Market Dynamics - JD's entry into the wine and travel market is expected to invigorate the industry, promoting service upgrades and technological innovations. However, Meituan remains a dominant player in local life services, with a well-established user base and operational efficiency [18]. - The competition between JD and Meituan reflects two distinct operational strengths: JD's supply chain and logistics advantages versus Meituan's deep penetration in instant service networks. This rivalry is likely to benefit consumers through improved services [18].

Core Viewpoint - The global multi-modal transport market is expected to grow significantly, driven by various factors including the Belt and Road Initiative, supply chain restructuring, and advancements in low-altitude economy, impacting port operations and management [4][5][6]. Multi-Modal Transport Market Growth - The global multi-modal transport market is projected to reach $62.25 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 6.6%, and is expected to expand to $103.29 billion by 2032 [4]. - In North America, the multi-modal transport demand is anticipated to grow due to the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement and potential tariffs, with a projected total of 18.084 million units in 2024, reflecting an 8.5% increase [4]. - The European multi-modal transport market is steadily growing, supported by the new TEN-T policy aimed at creating an efficient multi-modal network across Europe [4]. China's Multi-Modal Transport Development - China's multi-modal transport market is significantly driven by the Belt and Road Initiative, with a projected 2024 port container rail-water transport volume of 13.35 million TEUs, marking a 15.4% increase [5]. - The China-Europe Railway Express is expected to operate 19,000 trains in 2024, showing a year-on-year growth of 10.7% [5]. Supply Chain Restructuring Impact - The global supply chain landscape is undergoing profound changes due to geopolitical conflicts and supply chain restructuring, significantly affecting the port industry [9]. - The Red Sea crisis has led to a 56% increase in the diversion of dry bulk vessels and a 90% increase for container ships compared to 2023, disrupting trade and logistics [9]. Low-Altitude Economy and Port Development - The low-altitude economy, particularly low-altitude logistics, is emerging as a key component in enhancing port operations, showcasing advantages in short-distance transport and high-efficiency delivery [13][14]. - The global low-altitude economy market reached 2.08 trillion RMB in 2023, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 11.51% from 2024 to 2029 [14]. Sustainable Port Transformation - Ports are transitioning from traditional logistics nodes to multi-dimensional sustainable hubs, balancing environmental, social, and economic impacts through community collaboration and green technology [17]. - Recent initiatives in Australia, such as the redevelopment of the Darwin waterfront area, aim to enhance community sustainability while preserving ecological spaces [17].

Core Viewpoint - The major shareholders of Zhongji Xuchuang have begun to reduce their holdings after a significant stock price increase, raising concerns about potential market corrections and the sustainability of the company's growth [2][3][5]. Company Summary - Zhongji Xuchuang's stock price surged from under 150 yuan to nearly 450 yuan between July 1 and September 17, with a significant cash-out by shareholders, including a total reduction of 463.41 million shares by a specific shareholder, resulting in a decrease in their holding from 9.417% to 8.9999% [2][3]. - The company reported a revenue of 147.9 billion yuan for the first half of the year, marking a 37.0% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of nearly 40 billion yuan, which is a 69.4% increase compared to the previous year [3][4]. - In the second quarter, the company achieved a revenue of 81.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 36.25% year-on-year growth and a 21.6% quarter-on-quarter increase, with a net profit of 24.1 billion yuan, up 78.8% year-on-year and 52.4% quarter-on-quarter [3]. Industry Summary - The optical module market is expected to maintain strong demand, with growth projections for the next three years, despite concerns about high valuations and potential market corrections due to significant stock price increases [3][4]. - The company faces uncertainties from global supply chain restructuring and geopolitical risks, particularly due to reliance on overseas procurement for key raw materials [4]. - Analysts believe that the company, as a leading player in the optical communication industry, is well-positioned to meet mainstream customer demands and expand its high-end product lines, maintaining its competitive edge [4].