1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industry operation often experiences a temporary deterioration before improvement. The short - term global zinc demand forecast is moderately lowered, but in the medium - to - long - term, the impact of high oil prices on the overseas zinc supply will be significantly greater than the suppression of domestic demand [3]. - The zinc price is approaching the domestic zinc smelting break - even point. Production cuts by major mines such as OZ may lead to a substantial risk of ore shortage, and there may be unexpected production cuts in the second quarter [3]. - The views in the annual report have been verified: the interference rate at the ore end has increased, some ore increments cannot smoothly enter the market, and the复产 progress of overseas smelters has been postponed [3]. - The annual report expectations have been adjusted: the Middle East geopolitical conflict may reshape the global zinc product trade flow, with ore sources concentrated in China and China's export advantage continuously expanding [3]. - The core contradiction in the current zinc market may have shifted from "demand recovery" to "supply transfer and export premium under the reconstruction of the supply chain" [3]. - Trading strategies: - Unilateral: The forecast for the annual high of the zinc price is lowered, but the zinc price is still expected to perform well in the second quarter. Even if the Middle East conflict escalates further and the global "recession" expectation materializes, the zinc price will show a resistant decline rather than a "collapse - like decline" due to the cost support from the smelting end [3]. - Inter - period arbitrage: In the peak season and with the risk of production cuts, pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage opportunities for Shanghai zinc in the second quarter [3]. - Inter - market arbitrage: Given the uncertainty of trade flow changes in the current internal - external price difference, it is recommended to carefully evaluate the applicability of this strategy [3]. - Inter - commodity arbitrage: The zinc - aluminum price ratio has reached a historical low, and short - term regression opportunities should be noted [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Market Focus - At the macro level, since the war between the US and Iran, the Middle East situation has triggered an energy crisis, driving up oil prices and costs. High interest rates have suppressed growth expectations, leading to a tug - of - war between "stagflation" and "recession" expectations. The core logic of the commodity market has shifted from a single "global recession trade" to "deep differentiation under multiple narratives" [5]. - The pricing power of ferrous metals (steel) lies within China, trading on the peak - season demand in China's "Golden March and Silver April" and cost support. Non - ferrous metals are dominated by the game between global macro expectations and geopolitical supply shocks. Chemical products are essentially processed from crude oil, trading on cost transmission. Agricultural products are affected by independent climate cycles and planting areas, and are basically independent of the macro logic of industrial products [5]. - Since the conflict between the US and Iran broke out on February 28, 2026, the market's expectations have changed several times. As of March 19, the market has shifted from worrying about "stagflation" to "recession", and non - ferrous metals have fallen panic - stricken [6]. - From the Polymarket trading data, the market's expectations for the US - Iran cease - fire and the US recession can be observed. As of March 21, the probability of a cease - fire in June has dropped to 50%, and the probability of a US recession within the year is 36%. The current market trading main line is: soaring oil prices → rising inflation expectations → hindered Fed rate cuts (or even rate hikes) → slowing economic growth. There are three possible paths to refute "stagflation" [8]. Industrial Focus Ore End - Many overseas mining companies have significantly lowered their production guidance. The expected overseas zinc ore increment in 2026 is sharply reduced to 24,000 tons, while the domestic expectation remains unchanged. The significant reduction in overseas mine production and the circulation problems of major domestic ore increments may lead to a substantial ore shortage for domestic smelters in the second quarter [17][19]. - The cash cost structure of zinc mines is different from that of copper mines. The energy cost accounts for a relatively moderate proportion in zinc mines, and the TC and transportation costs are the largest cost items. Zinc mines are less sensitive to energy price fluctuations than copper mines [22]. Smelting End - European zinc smelters have been operating at a low level due to power supply shortages and high costs in 2025. Currently, their smelting profits are still in the red. The power cost accounts for 50% - 70% of the total cost. The recent sharp rise in electricity prices in European countries may delay the复产 of European zinc smelters in 2026 or even lead to further production cuts, resulting in a "chronic low - operation" pattern [25][26]. - As of now, 6 European smelters with a total capacity of 924,000 tons (about 7% of the global zinc ingot production) have unclear electricity price agreements. The risk of production cuts in Belgian and French smelters is relatively high [28]. - The proposed Asian zinc concentrate Benchmark TC in 2026 is 85 US dollars per dry ton, with two key terms adjusted. However, the probability of this extreme clause being implemented is low because the smelting end has limited tolerance for the terms, and the supply of raw materials for Asian smelters is expected to be looser [30]. Demand - The consumption structure of zinc terminals is changing. The demand proportion of the real estate sector is decreasing, while that of the new economy is increasing. Due to the significant increase in oil prices, the demand for the automotive sector (especially fuel - powered vehicles) will be affected first, followed by machinery and equipment manufacturing, traditional infrastructure, real estate, and home appliances. The demand for photovoltaics, wind power, and UHV will benefit from the substitution effect. The annual zinc market balance sheet is moderately adjusted, and the domestic terminal demand growth rate forecast is lowered by 0.23 percentage points to 1.40% [31][32]. - In 2025, China's galvanized sheet exports increased by 12.82% year - on - year. Although there are still profit - pressure and trade frictions, the core position of galvanized steel in steel exports is stable. In the long - term, if oil prices remain stable at around 80 US dollars per barrel, China's energy security, low - cost, and full - industrial - chain advantages in the zinc downstream will be re - evaluated globally, and overseas orders are expected to return on a large scale [35]. - The zinc demand growth rates of some overseas countries are lowered. The overall overseas zinc demand growth rate in 2026 is lowered by 1.1 percentage points to 0.7% [36]. Balance Sheet Overview - From the perspective of element circulation, the supply - demand balance sheets of zinc ore, primary zinc, recycled zinc, refined zinc, and zinc elements are constructed and quantitatively calculated [40]. - By analyzing monthly data, it is predicted that the global refined zinc demand growth rate will be slower than the supply growth rate in the first half of 2026, and the zinc price may face downward pressure after the spring market. In the second quarter, the zinc price is expected to rebound strongly due to the increasing risk of production cuts in the domestic zinc smelting end and the low base of zinc demand in the second quarter of last year [45]. - By observing the year - on - year growth rates of supply and demand, it is found that the overseas zinc element dynamic balance is most closely related to the zinc price. In 2026, the overseas terminal demand growth rate is expected to exceed the supply growth rate, so the zinc price center is expected to rise [50]. - In 2026, the global zinc ore balance is expected to be slightly in surplus by 57,200 tons, with the domestic supply increasing by 100,000 tons and the overseas supply increasing by 190,000 tons. The global smelting demand (including losses) will increase by 200,000 tons, mainly from China. The zinc processing fee (TC) is expected to rise slightly, and the operating pressure of domestic zinc smelters will be relieved [52]. - The global primary zinc supply has been in short supply for a long time. The shortage is filled by recycled refined zinc. Based on the prediction of the 2026 domestic primary zinc balance, the zinc price center is likely to rise [56]. - In the overseas recycled zinc market, the supply of high - quality raw materials is in short supply. In the domestic market, the production of recycled zinc elements is expected to grow by about 2.36% in 2026, but the supply of recycled raw materials is limited [57][58]. - After adjusting the data for 2025 and 2026, the global refined zinc balance has changed from surplus to a tight balance in 2025, and this tight balance will continue in 2026. In 2026, the global refined zinc supply growth rate is 1.82%, and the demand growth rate is 1.85%. The domestic supply growth rate is 3.26%, and the demand growth rate is 3.04% [60][61]. - By analyzing the difference between the zinc consumption of the processing end and the terminal, it is expected that the export of domestic zinc primary processing products will increase significantly in 2026, driving the domestic zinc element supply - demand to maintain a tight balance. The overseas zinc primary processing sector may be in a relatively surplus state [63]. Structural Opportunities - According to the monthly supply - demand balance sheet, the zinc market may experience accelerated inventory reduction in the second quarter of 2026. Due to the low zinc price, the expected production cuts by smelters, and the support of the peak - consumption season, the zinc monthly spread is expected to strengthen, and attention should be paid to the positive spread arbitrage opportunities [67]. - The current "loose domestic and tight overseas" supply - demand differentiation in the zinc market has been fully priced. The Middle East geopolitical situation may impact overseas zinc demand, and China's zinc downstream industry advantages will be re - evaluated globally. In the short - term, it is recommended to avoid internal - external positive spread arbitrage [70]. - In the short - term, attention should be paid to the structural opportunity of the zinc - aluminum price ratio repair. Recently, the zinc - aluminum price ratio has dropped to a 15 - year low. After the relevant expectations are realized, the ratio is expected to rebound. In the long - term, the zinc - aluminum price ratio will show a downward trend [73]. Supply - Demand Data Ore End - In January 2026, the global zinc ore production was 1.0104 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.67% or 45,000 tons. From January to February 2026, China's zinc concentrate production was 438,100 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.96% or 39,700 metal tons. It is expected that the domestic zinc concentrate production will increase by 270,000 tons, the overseas production will increase by 24,000 tons, and the global production will increase by 294,000 tons in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 2.52% [77]. - From January to February 2026, China's cumulative zinc concentrate imports were 1.0088 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.53%. The top five import sources were Australia, Peru, Russia, Congo, and South Africa [80]. Smelting End - In January 2026, the global zinc ingot production was 1.1564 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.68% or 19,100 tons. From January to February 2026, China's primary zinc production was 930,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.64% or 97,000 tons, and the recycled zinc production was 102,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 20.75% or 17,600 tons. It is expected that the global refined zinc production will increase by 230,000 tons in 2026, with a year - on - year growth rate of 1.82% [84][86]. - From January to February 2026, China's net imports of refined zinc were 22,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 66.64%. It is expected that the net imports of zinc ingots will recover significantly in the second half of 2026 [89].

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical crisis has prompted a restructuring of supply chains, fundamentally weakening the monopoly of Middle Eastern resource countries in the core chemical materials sector [5]. Group 1 - The military actions by the US and Israel against Iran have significantly disrupted the global energy and chemical supply chain [6]. - Iran's response to these actions includes asymmetric tactics, such as the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global oil and gas exports [6]. - The Strait of Hormuz, despite its narrowest point being only 29 nautical miles, is vital as it facilitates the passage of approximately 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products daily, accounting for 25% of global maritime oil trade and 20% of global daily consumption [6]. Group 2 - The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could eliminate around 20% of global LNG supply, equating to approximately 10.8 billion cubic feet per day, as major exporters like Qatar and the UAE heavily rely on this route for their LNG exports [6].

Core Insights - The launch of the MacBook Neo at a price of $599 represents a strategic shift for Apple, utilizing the A18 Pro chip from the iPhone 16 Pro to reduce costs and target the education market, competing directly with Chromebooks and budget Windows laptops [1][2] - Despite the lower price point potentially impacting Apple's premium brand image, the MacBook Neo maintains high-quality hardware specifications, which are expected to increase Apple's market share and shipment volume in a declining global notebook market [2] Product Strategy - The MacBook Neo aims to penetrate the education sector by offering a discounted price of $499 for students, leveraging the A18 Pro chip's single-core performance to meet the needs of most student tasks and outperforming similarly priced Intel Core Ultra 5 PCs in AI task processing speed by three times [1] - Apple's strategy includes a "high quality at low price" approach, utilizing supply chain negotiation power to pressure competitors' profits, with a projected 7.7% growth in market share and shipments despite an anticipated 9.2% decline in the global notebook market [2] Supply Chain and Production - Apple is restructuring its supply chain, moving most MacBook Air production to Vietnam, which has shown stable production quality, and implementing automation requirements for partners to ensure consistent global product quality [3] - The complex supply chain involves parts from India being assembled in Vietnam or China, allowing Apple to benefit from various government incentives while mitigating geopolitical risks [3] Geopolitical Considerations - The establishment of a Foxconn factory in Houston, Texas, is part of Apple's strategy to address potential tariffs and fulfill its commitment to American manufacturing, producing both Mac mini and AI servers for internal use [4] - Apple is expanding production in India and Vietnam not only to reduce labor costs but also to avoid potential tariff impacts, with CEO Tim Cook engaging with the U.S. government to balance domestic investment and a resilient Asian production system [6] Competitive Advantage - Apple's dominance in hardware is largely attributed to its supply chain management capabilities, allowing it to predict component prices and trade policy shifts accurately, with the MacBook Neo exemplifying its production and cost management prowess [7] - The competition in the PC market is shifting from product specifications to supply chain resilience, chip self-research capabilities, and ecosystem stickiness, where Apple currently leads [7]

Core Viewpoint - The smart terminal industry is undergoing an unprecedented "stress test" due to geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices, leading to a shift from an "efficiency-first" globalization logic to a "security-first" paradigm [2][7]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - Geopolitical black swans, such as the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, are shaking every link in the global supply chain, with oil prices surpassing $90 [7]. - The technological revolution continues unabated, with breakthroughs in display technology, semiconductors, and AI reshaping the form and boundaries of smart terminals [7]. Group 2: Forum Insights - The "聚链成势·智启未来" summit aims to address the future direction of Chinese smart terminal companies amidst these changes [3][6]. - A roundtable forum featuring five top experts from various fields will provide diverse perspectives on the industry's challenges and opportunities [4][13]. Group 3: Key Discussion Topics - **Core Components**: The impact of energy crises on manufacturing costs and the timeline for the commercial use of next-generation displays and chips [14]. - **Supply Chain Reconstruction**: Balancing efficiency and security while preparing for worst-case scenarios in a globalized context [14]. - **Capital Market Logic**: The reshaping of valuation logic in the smart terminal industry amid high inflation and geopolitical conflicts [14]. - **AI and Terminal Integration**: Exploring the commercial viability of new AI-enabled terminal products and their business models [14]. - **Regulatory Dynamics**: Strategies for overcoming patent barriers and adapting to new international rules in a "de-China" technology alliance [15]. Group 4: Expected Outcomes - Attendees will gain insights into the collaborative paths for display and semiconductor technologies, methods for building resilient supply chains, and the evolving valuation logic in the smart terminal industry [16]. - The forum will facilitate a clash of ideas between technology and capital perspectives, as well as discussions on industry and policy interactions [16]. Group 5: Conclusion - In an era of uncertainty, understanding the underlying logic behind changes in the smart terminal industry is crucial for navigating future challenges [17].

Summary of Strategic Minerals Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on strategic minerals including tungsten, antimony, uranium, and germanium, highlighting their resource attributes and price trends expected to rise steadily [1][2]. Key Points on Tungsten - **Price Surge**: Tungsten prices increased by 5.5 times to 919,000 CNY/ton over 8 months, driven by a 6% supply reduction in 2025 and a $500 million strategic reserve plan from the U.S. [1][3]. - **Demand Drivers**: Key demand contributors include photovoltaic tungsten wire and military applications, with military demand accounting for approximately 20% of total demand and growing at double-digit rates [3][4]. - **Supply Constraints**: Domestic tungsten supply is projected at 107,000 tons for 2025, down from 114,000 tons in 2024, marking a significant trend change not seen in over a decade [3][4]. - **Market Dynamics**: The market is relatively small, with a total size nearing 200 billion CNY, and is sensitive to funding, which can create price elasticity [4]. Key Points on Antimony - **Current Pricing**: Antimony ingot prices are at 172,000 CNY/ton, down from a peak of 240,000 CNY/ton in June 2025 [5]. - **Export Controls Impact**: Export controls have led to a significant drop in antimony oxide exports, with current levels at about 1/10 of historical averages [5]. - **Future Catalysts**: Anticipated catalysts include the completion of export approval processes and increased demand from the photovoltaic sector in Q1 2026 [5]. Key Points on Germanium - **Market Size and Pricing**: Germanium prices are currently at 12.7 million CNY/ton, with annual demand around 220 tons, leading to a market size of approximately 3 billion CNY [6]. - **Supply Dependency**: About 70% of global germanium production comes from China, making it a critical resource for U.S. strategic reserves, with the U.S. planning to procure over 20% of its annual demand [6]. Key Points on Uranium - **Supply and Demand Outlook**: The uranium market is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4%-5% over the next decade, with supply recovery nearing completion [7][8]. - **Price Structure**: Current long-term contract prices are at $90 per pound, reflecting true supply-demand dynamics, while spot prices are more volatile [8]. - **Future Catalysts**: The easing of financing costs due to interest rate cuts is expected to boost uranium purchases, with significant procurement planned by North American buyers [8]. Strategic Implications - The current market dynamics are influenced by de-globalization and resource nationalism, with a shift from traditional commodity cycles to a focus on supply chain restructuring [2]. - Companies to watch include Xiamen Tungsten, Hunan Gold, Chihong Zn & Ge, and China General Nuclear Power for potential investment opportunities [1][4][5][6][8].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that while Trump's trade policies aimed at reducing the trade deficit have not succeeded, they have significantly increased tariff revenues for the U.S. government, reaching a historic high of $264 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 234% [1][6][12] - The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services was $901.5 billion in 2025, only slightly down from $903.5 billion in 2024, indicating that the U.S. remains a net importer despite the tariff changes [5][6] - The trade deficit with China narrowed significantly to $202 billion in 2025, the lowest in 20 years, while deficits with Mexico and Vietnam increased, reflecting a strategic shift in supply chains [7][9] Group 2 - The increase in tariff revenues has contributed to a reduction in the U.S. budget deficit, which fell to $1.67 trillion in 2025, the smallest in three years, largely due to the record growth in tariff income [12] - Capital gains tax revenue also rose to $260.6 billion in 2025, benefiting from strong stock market performance, indicating a complementary relationship between tariff revenues and capital gains taxes for U.S. fiscal health [12][13] - Trump's tariff strategy has provided the U.S. with strategic negotiation leverage, leading to significant investment commitments from trade partners, which could potentially support U.S. manufacturing and economic growth [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen significant gains, with the non-ferrous ETF FuGuo (159168) rising by 5.32% at one point, driven by macroeconomic uncertainties and supply chain restructuring concerns [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a substantial increase, with key stocks such as Xiyegongsi, Beifang Rare Earth, and Chihong Zinc & Germanium hitting the 10% daily limit [1] - Over 90% of the stocks in the sector showed an upward trend, indicating strong market sentiment [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - Ongoing tensions between the US and Iran, along with the US government's announcement of a 10% to 15% alternative tariff on global goods, have heightened market concerns regarding policy uncertainty and supply chain restructuring [1] - This macro environment has reinforced the safe-haven attributes of key minerals and the logic of stagflation trading [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Research institutions predict that by 2026, the market will enter a second phase of a bull market characterized by profit-driven growth, supported by domestic demand expansion and anti-involution narratives [1] - The strong cyclical nature of non-ferrous metals is expected to manifest, with financial attributes and industry trends providing opportunities for revaluation [1] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investors looking to enter the non-ferrous metal sector may consider the non-ferrous ETF FuGuo (159168), which closely tracks the Industrial Non-Ferrous Index (H11059.CSI) [1] - The ETF selectively includes 30 listed companies involved in industrial metals such as copper, aluminum, rare earths, lead, zinc, tungsten, and molybdenum, focusing on growth dividends from industrial upgrades [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. trade strategy is undermining its own economic foundation rather than protecting it, leading to increased costs for consumers and strained international relationships [1][2]. Trade Policy Impact - Tariffs have not resulted in a significant return of manufacturing to the U.S., and the trade deficit remains unchanged, with the burden falling on American households [5][9]. - The Peterson Institute estimates that ordinary families are paying an additional $1,300 annually due to tariffs, affecting the prices of household appliances, electronics, and vehicles [2][5]. - Agricultural exports, particularly soybeans, have seen a dramatic decline, costing farmers billions, with some experiencing a 50% drop in income [2][5]. International Relations - The imposition of tariffs has led to retaliatory measures from Canada, Mexico, and the EU, straining relationships with traditional allies and undermining trust [2][5]. - The U.S. has lost its position as a rule-maker in global trade, with allies reconsidering their cooperation and exploring alternative markets [5][10]. Supply Chain Disruption - The trade war has exacerbated supply chain issues, particularly in the technology sector, where reliance on Asian suppliers for chips and rare earth materials remains high [2][7]. - Companies are facing increased logistics costs and longer border crossing times, leading to financial strain [2][5]. Economic Consequences - The economic landscape is characterized by rising prices, stagnant wages, and increased uncertainty, leading to a decline in consumer confidence and spending [7][9]. - The stock market shows volatility, particularly in technology stocks, as companies struggle with supply chain disruptions and fluctuating costs [7][9]. Future Outlook - The ongoing trade policies are expected to have long-term negative effects on the U.S. economy, including slow growth, high inflation, and job losses [10][12]. - The potential for a new round of tariffs under a future administration indicates a continuation of the current approach, which may further damage economic relationships and stability [12][13].

Group 1 - The core issue in the milk tea industry is the safety and consumer experience concerns related to certain ingredients like crushed peanuts, which pose choking hazards for children and the elderly, and high sugar content in red beans and raisins, leading to potential health risks [1][2] - Brands are shifting towards a "tea base + fresh milk" style, reducing the use of heavy toppings and promoting healthier options, indicating a strategic adjustment in response to changing consumer preferences [2] - As of now, there are over 287,000 milk tea-related enterprises in China, with approximately 28,000 new registrations expected by 2025, showing a fluctuating growth trend since 2021 [2] Group 2 - The ability of brands to adapt to consumer preferences is crucial, and assessing the backgrounds of key personnel in product development and quality control can provide insights into their capacity for continuous product optimization [1] - The regional distribution of milk tea enterprises shows Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Guangxi as the leading provinces, with over 39,000, 28,000, and 26,000 enterprises respectively [2]

Core Insights - The Chinese New Year cuisine market is experiencing a significant transformation, shifting from a focus on "surprising abundance" to "certain happiness," with a market size projected to exceed 260 billion yuan by the end of the year, growing at an annual rate of over 38% [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The demand for New Year's Eve dinner reservations has surged earlier this year, with a reported threefold increase in pre-orders on platforms like Meituan, particularly in major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou [2] - The consumer base for dining has shifted from business gatherings to family reunions, leading restaurants to adapt their offerings to more cost-effective options [2] - Supermarkets are becoming the primary battleground for purchasing semi-finished New Year dishes, with various festive products and themed packaging being introduced to attract consumers [3] Group 2: Consumer Preferences - Consumers are increasingly seeking "certainty" in their dining experiences, preferring pre-defined meal packages that eliminate the uncertainty of ordering [4] - The average consumer is now more focused on measurable family experiences rather than traditional social pressures, leading to a demand for transparent pricing and quality [5] - Over 60% of consumers prefer ready-made or semi-finished dishes, indicating a trend towards outsourcing the most complex meal preparations [6] Group 3: Supply Chain and Operational Strategies - Companies are restructuring their supply chains to ensure quality and price stability during peak demand periods, with advanced inventory management practices being implemented [7] - Retail platforms are standardizing regional dishes to ensure consistent quality and flavor, utilizing technology to replicate traditional cooking methods [7] - The integration of cultural elements into meal offerings is enhancing the emotional connection consumers have with their dining experiences, as seen with initiatives like "福禄节" [8]