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宝城期货原油早报-2026-04-01-20260401
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 02:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of crude oil 2605 is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating and bullish, and the intraday view is also oscillating and bullish, with an overall reference view of oscillating and bullish due to lingering geopolitical risks [1]. - The core logic is that the US has been taking actions in the Middle East, and while both the US and Iran have signaled the intention to negotiate, the risk has not been eliminated. After the geopolitical premium was temporarily withdrawn and the domestic crude oil futures prices showed a weak downward trend on Tuesday night, it is expected that domestic crude oil futures will maintain an oscillating and bullish pattern on Wednesday [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle and Viewpoint Summary - For crude oil 2605, the short - term (within one week) view is oscillating, the medium - term (two weeks to one month) view is oscillating and bullish, and the intraday view is oscillating and bullish, with an overall reference view of oscillating and bullish [1]. 3.2 Price Movement and Calculation Rules - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price of the current day to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered bearish, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered bullish, and a rise of more than 1% is considered strong. The bullish/bearish concept only applies to the intraday view, not to the short - term and medium - term views [3][4]. 3.3 Price Driving Logic of Crude Oil - The US has been taking actions in the Middle East, with Trump signaling a one - month cease - fire and peace talks with Iran to discuss a 15 - point agreement to soothe market sentiment. There were military conflicts over the weekend, but as both sides signaled peace talks, the geopolitical premium was temporarily withdrawn, and the domestic crude oil futures prices were weak on Tuesday night. However, risks remain, and it is expected that the market will be oscillating and bullish on Wednesday [5].