投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-03-02 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2604 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 强势 | 强势运行 | 地缘风险扰动，原油强势运行 | 原油（SC） 日内观点：强势 中期观点：震荡 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 参考观点：强势运行 核心逻辑：随着美以向伊朗发动军事袭击，中东地缘风险快速升温，伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡， 原油天然气等能源物资无法从中东向外运输，原油溢价或将大幅升温。尽管 OPEC+产油国宣布二季度 开始重新恢复增产，但 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-06 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 美伊展开和谈，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近期供需基本面的边际改善提供坚实支撑。OPEC+八大主要产油国明确宣布 2026 年 3 月 继续暂停增产，产量维持 2025 年 12 月水平，有效缓解了市场对于供应过剩的担忧。同时，美国冬 季风暴持续影响原油生产，上周原油库存减少 350 万桶，库欣地区库存同步下降 74.3 万桶，库存去 化超预期进一步强化看涨逻辑。由于美伊将在 6 日上 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report Core View - The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and a weak intraday view. The supply - demand surplus dominates, leading to an oscillating and weak trend in crude oil [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price and Market Outlook - The short - term view of crude oil 2602 is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak. It is expected to run weakly [1] - On Tuesday night, domestic crude oil futures maintained an oscillating and weak trend with a slight decline in price. It is expected that on Wednesday, the price of domestic crude oil futures may maintain an oscillating and weak trend [5] Driving Factors - During the New Year's Day holiday, geopolitical risks increased rapidly due to the US military operation in Venezuela and President Trump's threat to other South American countries, which may be an important geopolitical factor for post - holiday oil price increases [5] - The long - term and medium - term logic for the decline in oil prices is the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market. The concern about global supply surplus persists, causing a pessimistic sentiment among investors [5]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures (SC2602) will run weakly in the short - term and mid - term, showing an overall trend of weakening after a period of shock. The short - term and mid - term trends are both "shock", and the intraday trend is "weak", with the reference view being "weak operation" [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Price and Trend - The short - term (within one week) and mid - term (two weeks to one month) trends of crude oil 2602 are "shock", and the intraday trend is "weak". The reference view is that it will operate weakly [1]. Driving Logic - The recent sharp escalation of the US - Venezuela situation is the most direct and powerful driving force for the rebound of oil prices. The US has increased pressure on Venezuela, with an estimated cumulative seizure of about 6 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil. Venezuela exported about 600,000 barrels per day in November, and the number of tankers going to Venezuela has decreased, leading to concerns about a global supply gap and pushing up the risk premium of oil prices. - The attack on Russian refineries by Ukraine has made geopolitical factors dominant in the short - term oil market. - After the short - term positive factors are digested, the domestic crude oil futures prices stabilized in a shock on the night session of Monday, and the futures prices gave back their gains. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures will operate weakly in a shock on Tuesday [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Viewpoint - The report believes that due to geopolitical risks, the domestic crude oil futures (SC) are expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending movement. The short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, and the intraday trend is expected to be on the stronger side [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price Trend and Viewpoint - For crude oil 2602, the short - term trend is volatile, the medium - term trend is volatile, the intraday trend is on the stronger side, and the overall reference view is a stronger - trending movement [1]. - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is on the stronger side, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is a stronger - trending movement [5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The sharp escalation of the US - Venezuela situation is the most direct and powerful driving force for the oil price rebound. The Trump administration in the US has increased pressure on Venezuela, including a "full and complete blockade" of sanctioned oil tankers and plans to seize more Venezuelan oil tankers. Approximately 6 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil have been seized in total. Venezuela exported about 600,000 barrels per day in November. The decrease in the number of oil tankers going to Venezuela has led to concerns about a substantial global crude oil supply gap, pushing up the risk premium of oil prices. Additionally, the attack on Russian refineries by Ukraine has made geopolitical factors dominant in the short - term oil market [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Report's Core View - The crude oil futures contract 2602 is expected to run strongly with short - term and medium - term oscillations and a bullish intraday trend, mainly driven by increased geopolitical risks [1][5]. 3) Summary Based on Related Catalogs Price and Trend - The short - term view of crude oil 2602 is oscillation, the medium - term view is also oscillation, and the intraday view is bullish, with a reference view of running strongly [1]. - It is estimated that domestic crude oil futures may maintain a bullish pattern on Tuesday [5]. Driving Logic - The recent sharp escalation of the US - Venezuela situation is the most direct and powerful driving force for the oil price rebound. The US has increased pressure on Venezuela, including a "full and complete blockade" of sanctioned oil tankers and plans to seize more tankers. About 600 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil have been seized in total. Venezuela is an important oil exporter with an export volume of about 600,000 barrels per day in November. The decrease in the number of tankers going to Venezuela due to US pressure has led to concerns about a substantial gap in global crude oil supply, thus increasing the risk premium of oil prices. Geopolitical factors dominated the short - term oil market, leading to a bullish and oscillating trend in domestic crude oil futures prices on Monday night [5].

Report Summary 1) Reported Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - The crude oil market is expected to run weakly in the short - term and the intraday period, while remaining volatile in the medium - term [1][5] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Market Outlook - The short - term view of crude oil 2602 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is weak, and the reference view is weak operation [1] - It is expected that domestic crude oil futures may maintain a weak pattern on Tuesday [5] Core Logic - Recently, there have been signs of compromise in Ukraine, the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to cool down, and the US is mediating to end the war, weakening the geopolitical premium and the upward momentum of international oil prices [5] - Saudi Arabia has lowered the price of its main crude oil varieties for Asia to the lowest level in five years, and global crude oil inventories are continuously accumulating, increasing supply pressure in the crude oil market [5] - The weakening of the monthly spread in the crude oil market and the crack spread of refined oil products shows a weak supply - demand structure in the oil market [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report [1][5] 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures (SC2602) will run weakly in the short - term, with a weak intraday trend and a volatile trend in the medium - term, mainly due to the prevailing bearish sentiment [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Trend Outlook - The short - term trend of crude oil 2602 is volatile, the medium - term is also volatile, and the intraday trend is weak, with a reference view of running weakly [1] - The domestic crude oil futures are expected to maintain a weak pattern on Monday [5] Core Logic - There are signs of compromise in Ukraine, the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to cool down, and the US is mediating to end the war. The geopolitical premium is weakening, which weakens the upward momentum of international oil prices [5] - Saudi Arabia has lowered the price of its main crude oil varieties for Asia to the lowest level in five years, and global crude oil inventories are continuously accumulating, indicating increasing supply pressure in the crude oil market [5] - The weakening of the crude oil market's monthly spread and refined oil cracking spread shows a weak supply - demand structure in the oil market [5]

Core Viewpoints - The article provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, highlighting key products, market conditions, and potential trading opportunities across different sectors [2][3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Stock Index Futures - Key products include the Shanghai 50 futures (IH), CSI 300 futures (IF), CSI 500 futures (IC), and CSI 1000 futures (IM) [2]. - The market shows a "Good Curve Long" signal for IC and IM, indicating a strong bullish structure for small-cap indices, while IH and IF are in a "Maybe Curve Long" state, suggesting a more moderate outlook [2]. - The overall market is in a "Consolidation" phase, reflecting low volatility and unclear directional breakout [2]. Group 2: Government Bond Futures - Key products include 2-year (TS), 5-year (TF), 10-year (T), and 30-year (TL) government bond futures [3]. - All products exhibit a "Short" signal, indicating strong expectations for rising interest rates [3]. - The short-end bonds show negative rolling returns, reflecting concerns over tightening monetary policy, while long-end bonds are under pressure from inflation and fiscal policy [3]. Group 3: Precious Metals - Key products include gold (AU) and silver (AG) [4]. - Both metals are in a "Maybe Curve Short" state, but the market condition is "Long," indicating high prices with a bearish curve structure [4]. - The annualized rolling returns for gold and silver are negative, suggesting that prices are at historical highs and positions may be overly concentrated [4]. Group 4: Non-Ferrous Metals - Key products include copper (CU), aluminum (AL), zinc (ZN), nickel (NI), and tin (SN) [5]. - Copper and aluminum show no clear curve signals but are in a "Long" market state; zinc is "Maybe Curve Long," while nickel and tin are "Maybe Curve Short" [5]. - The rolling returns for copper and aluminum are negative, indicating strong fundamentals but high prices, while nickel and tin reflect concerns over oversupply [5]. Group 5: Black Metals - Key products include iron ore (I), rebar (RB), hot-rolled coil (HC), coke (J), and coking coal (JM) [5]. - Iron ore shows a "Good Curve Long" signal, while rebar and hot-rolled coil are in a "Maybe Curve Short" state [5]. - Iron ore's rolling return is high at 6.2%, indicating rebound potential, while demand weakness is reflected in negative returns for finished products [5]. Group 6: Energy and Chemicals - Key products include crude oil (SC), low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), fuel oil (FU), asphalt (BU), rubber (RU), plastic (L), and polypropylene (PP) [5]. - Crude oil and related products are in a "Curve Long" state, supported by geopolitical factors and OPEC+ production cuts [5]. - The rolling return for crude oil is positive, indicating an upward trend, while rubber and pulp show significant negative returns due to weak demand [5]. Group 7: Agricultural Products - Key products include soybean meal (M), soybean oil (Y), palm oil (P), rapeseed oil (OI), rapeseed meal (RM), corn (C), live hogs (LH), eggs (JD), white sugar (SR), and cotton (CF) [5]. - Soybean oil and palm oil are in a "Maybe Curve Long" state, while live hogs and eggs are in a "Curve Short" state [5]. - The rolling returns for oilseed products are positive, supported by biodiesel demand, while live hogs and eggs face pressure from oversupply [5].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Sector - Key Products: CSI 500 Futures (IC), CSI 1000 Futures (IM) - Bullish Outlook: Clear bullish sentiment supported by trading volume and open interest structure, but caution is advised for potential high-level pullbacks [1][2] Group 2: Government Bond Futures Sector - Key Products: 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond futures (TS, TF, T, TL) - Market Sentiment: Overall consolidation with a slight bearish bias [3][4] Group 3: Precious Metals Sector - Key Products: Gold (AU), Silver (AG) - Market Sentiment: Bearish consolidation; IC and IM show "Good Curve Long" structure with annualized rolling returns of 7.5% and 10.98%, significantly higher than SSE 50 and CSI 300 [5][6] - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions or add on dips, focusing on long-dated contracts of IC and IM; cross-product arbitrage suggested [5][6] Group 4: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - Key Products: Copper (CU), Aluminum (AL), Zinc (ZN) - Market Sentiment: Significant differentiation; Aluminum shows the strongest fundamentals with tight supply-demand dynamics [9][10] - Trading Strategy: Long Aluminum and short Copper to capitalize on supply-demand gaps; light long positions in Zinc [9][10] Group 5: Black Metals Sector - Key Products: Iron Ore (I), Rebar (RB), Coking Coal (J) - Market Sentiment: Bearish outlook with negative returns for rebar and coking coal, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [13][14] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - Key Products: Crude Oil (SC), Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU), Asphalt (BU), Rubber (RU) - Market Sentiment: Significant differentiation; Crude Oil and Low Sulfur Fuel Oil benefit from geopolitical factors and shipping demand [15][18] - Trading Strategy: Long SC/LU and short RU to exploit energy versus chemical dynamics [15][18] Group 7: Agricultural Products Sector - Key Products: Soybean Meal (M), Soybean Oil (Y), Palm Oil (P), Live Hogs (LH) - Market Sentiment: Overall bullish; soybean oil and palm oil benefit from biodiesel demand and weather disturbances in South America [21][22] - Trading Strategy: Long soybean oil/palm oil and short soybean meal to capitalize on oil-meal ratios; short live hogs due to oversupply [21][22] Group 8: Soft Commodities and Specialty Products - Key Products: Sugar (SR), Cotton (CF), Urea (UR), Industrial Silicon (SI) - Market Sentiment: Mixed; Urea supported by agricultural demand while Industrial Silicon faces supply pressure [27][28] - Trading Strategy: Long Urea and short Industrial Silicon to leverage agricultural demand against industrial supply [27][28] Group 9: Summary of Trading Strategies and Risk Control Recommendations - Long positions recommended in IC, IM, Urea, Aluminum, and oilseeds; short positions in Copper, Rebar, Rubber, Live Hogs, and Industrial Silicon [30]