Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **PX**: Cost continues to support the rise in PX valuation. The unilateral trend is expected to be strong, and the positive spread of the monthly difference should be held. PXN is strengthening [3]. - **PTA**: The unilateral price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to take profit on the positive spread of the monthly difference at high levels. Hold the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA [3]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is strong, but the upside space may be limited. Hedge by going long on PX and short on MEG [4]. 3. Summary by Sections **Fundamental Tracking** - **Daily Price Changes**: On June 20, 2025, compared with the previous day, PX, PTA, and MEG decreased by 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.8% respectively, while PF increased by 0.4%, and SC decreased by 0.8% [1]. - **Monthly Difference Changes**: The daily changes in the monthly differences of PX (9 - 1), PTA (9 - 1), and MEG (9 - 1) on June 20 were -40, -26, and -9 respectively, while PF(7 - 8) increased by 28, and PX - EB07 increased by 11 [1]. - **Inter - Variety Spread Changes**: The daily changes in the spreads of PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, etc. on June 20 showed various trends, such as an increase of 2 in PTA09 - 0.65PX09 and an increase of 28 in PTA09 - MEG09 [1]. - **Basis and Inventory Changes**: The PX basis increased by 18 on June 20, while the PTA basis decreased by 60. The PTA warehouse receipts decreased by 43,123, and the PX warehouse receipts decreased by 5 [1]. **Market Overview** - **Geopolitical Factor**: The Iranian parliament has approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but the highest security agency needs to make the final decision [3]. **Market Views** - **PX**: The core driver of the current market remains on the cost side. Due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, multiple PX plants have shut down for maintenance, tightening the supply in the Middle - East and potentially affecting China's PX imports. Domestic PX operating rates are expected to decline further [3]. - **PTA**: It is still a cost - driven market. The risk of the war between the US and Iran escalating may lead to a rise in crude oil prices, providing strong cost support for PTA. Fundamentally, PTA has entered a pattern of inventory accumulation [4]. - **MEG**: The domestic supply has room for growth. Although the profit margins of some devices have been compressed, the overall load has increased to 70%. Overseas, multiple Iranian plants have shut down, with the impact on China's imports expected to be reflected in the far - month contracts [4]. **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of PX is 2, while that of PTA and MEG is 1 [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2507 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being volatile, volatile, and volatile but on the stronger side respectively [1][5]. - The main reasons are the increasing geopolitical risks, the approaching US debt crisis in June which may trigger a new round of macro negative impacts, and OPEC+ accelerating the production increase rhythm. After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Price and Trend - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of crude oil 2507 are volatile, volatile, and volatile but on the stronger side respectively, with a reference view of strong operation [1]. Driving Logic - With the approaching of the US debt crisis in June, the "gray rhino" effect may trigger a new round of macro negative impacts [5]. - OPEC+ is accelerating the production increase rhythm, with a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day in July. It may completely cancel the remaining 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts by the end of October [5]. - Due to the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and increasing geopolitical risks, international crude oil futures prices rose slightly during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, so the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger after the holiday [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PX/PTA, the upside space for the unilateral price is limited. Be vigilant about the negative impact of polyester production cuts and focus on positions where processing fees are compressed. The supply - demand balance sheet continues to reduce inventory, which is beneficial for near - month positive spread positions. There is a slight recovery in textile and clothing orders from the US during the 90 - day low - tariff window, driving a positive feedback process in the entire industry chain. However, with the rapid rise of raw materials such as PX, PTA, and MEG, polyester profits are quickly compressed. Also, as the PX - N spread rises to $280 per ton and the PX - MX spread rises above $120 per ton, the enthusiasm for PX production increases, and PTA supply also grows with the restart of multiple plants, weakening the upward momentum of the unilateral price and challenging the processing fees [5] - The trend intensities of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG are all - 1 [5] - Investment strategies: Short PX and long SC; long PX and short PTA; long PTA and short MEG [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Closing prices**: On May 21, 2025, the closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 6766, 4788, 4414, 6544, and 3571 respectively. The daily changes were 1.5%, 1.2%, 0.0%, 0.6%, and 0.4% [2] - **Monthly spreads**: On May 21, 2025, the monthly spreads of PX (9 - 1), PTA(6 - 9), MEG (9 - 1), PF(7 - 8), and PX - EB09 were 168, 118, 44, 30, and - 444 respectively, with daily changes of 26, 6, - 3, - 2, and 102 [2] - **Inter - variety spreads**: On May 21, 2025, the spreads of PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, PTA09 - PF09, PF07 processing margin, and PTA09 - LU09 were 390, 374, - 1698, 881, and 1332 respectively, with daily changes of - 8, 55, 8, - 14, and 45 [2] - **Basis**: On May 21, 2025, the basis of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and PX - naphtha spread were 160, 110, 85, 6, and 259 respectively, with daily changes of - 31, - 40, - 14, - 48, and 1 [2] - **Warehouse receipts**: On May 21, 2025, the number of warehouse receipts for PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PX, and SC were 67714, 9775, 2692, 200, and 4029000 respectively. The daily changes of PTA and ethylene glycol warehouse receipts were - 102 and - 2289 respectively [2] 3.2 Market Overview - **PX**: A 400 - million - ton PX plant in East China has basically resumed normal operation after reducing its load due to front - end equipment maintenance around May 13 [4] - **PTA**: A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is restarting and is expected to produce products tomorrow; a 3 - million - ton PTA plant in East China started maintenance today and is expected to last for about 2 weeks; a 1 - million - ton PTA plant in Southwest China has postponed its restart to around this weekend; a 1.2 - million - ton PTA plant in Northwest China has produced products and will maintain a load of 60% - 70% [4] - **MEG**: A 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant ended maintenance yesterday and is currently operating at a 50% load; a 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in East China has recently switched from EG to EO production, and its ethylene glycol production load has dropped to 30% - 40%, with a plan to start full - epoxy production in July [4] - **Polyester**: The overall sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak today, with an estimated average sales volume of about 40% by 4 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved compared to yesterday, with an average sales volume of 69% by 3 pm [5]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 20 日 对二甲苯：单边震荡市，空 PX 多 SC PTA：长丝计划检修，单边转弱，多 PX 空 PTA MEG：长丝计划检修，单边转弱 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-05-19 | 6752 | 4776 | 4475 | 6544 | 3563 | | 2025-05-16 | 6744 | 4774 | 4460 | 6550 | 3572 | | 2025-05-15 | 6762 | 4798 | 4461 | 6570 | 3595 | | 2025-05-14 | 6880 | 4874 | 4506 | 6678 | 3647 | | 2025-05-13 | 6708 | 4750 | 4349 | 6496 | 3541 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Short - term range - bound, recommend calendar spread (long near - term, short far - term), long PX against SC and EB [6] - PTA: Calendar spread (long near - term, short far - term), long PTA against SC. Consider shorting on rallies [7] - MEG: Weak unilateral trend, long PTA against MEG. Avoid chasing high in calendar spreads [7] 2. Core Views - The easing of Sino - US trade tensions and supply disruptions support the rise in PX prices. The recovery of polyester terminal demand and the rebound of crude oil also boost the valuation of the aromatics - polyester chain [4][6] - PTA is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, continuing to draw down inventories. High processing fees delay some device maintenance, so the unilateral trend is hard to turn strongly upward [7] - The supply of MEG will continue to increase. Coal - based and oil - based production will see more restarts, and imports are high, making it difficult to reduce port inventories [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Change**: On May 7, 2025, PX closed at 6288, PTA at 4466, MEG at 4199, PF at 6200, and SC at 3399, with daily changes of 2.6%, 2.4%, 1.7%, 1.0%, and 2.1% respectively [2] - **Calendar Spread**: PX (9 - 1) was 36 on May 7, with a daily change of 40; PTA(6 - 9) was 74, with a daily change of - 12; MEG (9 - 1) was - 22, with a daily change of - 5; PF(7 - 8) was 16, with a daily change of - 14; PX - EB09 was - 506, with a daily change of 54 [2] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: PTA09 - 0.65PX09 was 379 on May 7, with a daily change of 1; PTA09 - MEG09 was 267, with a daily change of 35; PTA09 - PF09 was - 1644, with a daily change of - 8; PF07盘面加工费 was 896, with a daily change of 2; PTA09 - LU09 was 1147, with a daily change of 53 [2] - **Basis and Other Spreads**: PX basis was 83 on May 7, with a daily change of 5; PTA basis was 110, with a daily change of - 10; MEG basis was 50, with a daily change of - 3; PF basis was 20, with a daily change of 28; PX - naphtha spread was 206, with a daily change of 12 [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: PTA warehouse receipts were 98978 on May 7, with a daily change of - 3644; ethylene glycol warehouse receipts were 10189, with a daily change of 5239; short - fiber warehouse receipts were 2587, with a daily change of - 6; PX warehouse receipts were 1311; SC warehouse receipts were 4644000 [2] 3.2 Market Overview - **PX**: On May 7, Asian PX prices rose significantly. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions and a supply disruption at Idemitsu's 210,000 - ton/year PX production line in Tokuyama supported the price. The Platts - assessed average daily price of Asian PX increased by $19.67/ton to $767.67/ton CFR Unv1/China [4] - **PTA**: On May 7, the spot price of PTA rose to 4565 yuan/ton. A 200,000 - ton IPA device in Taiwan, China, was shut down for maintenance, a 300 - million - ton PTA device in East China was restarting, and a 250 - million - ton PTA device in East China started to shut down on May 7 [5] - **MEG**: A 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol device in Shanxi plans to shut down for maintenance on May 14 for about a week. On May 6, the MEG shipments from a major warehouse in Zhangjiagang were about 4640 tons, and those from two major warehouses in Taicang were about 2670 tons [6] - **Polyester**: On May 7, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber factories improved, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 127% in Fujian. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was highly differentiated, with an average of over 60% [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **PX**: Adopt a strategy of going long on PX and short on SC. Short - term rebound is expected, but there is pressure in the medium - term. With low processing fees, overseas device maintenance is increasing, and the Asian PX operating rate has dropped to 68.6%. In May, it will continue to be in the de - stocking phase. In June, new devices are expected to be put into operation, and it is advisable to take long positions in the PX calendar spread when it is low [4]. - **PTA**: Short - term rebound is expected, but there is still pressure in the medium - term. Adopt a strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Terminal demand expectations have improved, polyester sales have improved, and inventory pressure has eased. After factory maintenance, PTA spot supply and demand are tight, and the basis and calendar spread have risen significantly. However, it is not recommended to chase the high basis and calendar spread, and it is advisable to gradually take profits before the holiday [4]. - **MEG**: Adopt a strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Do not chase the high calendar spread. With the exemption of ethane tariffs, domestic supply will be sufficient, and it is difficult to reduce port inventory. Short - term attention should be paid to short positions in the calendar spread when it is high [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Changes**: On April 25, 2025, compared with the previous day, PX, PTA, PF, and SC prices increased by 1.0%, 0.7%, 0.3%, and 0.9% respectively, while MEG decreased by 0.5% [1]. - **Calendar Spread Changes**: The daily changes in the calendar spreads of PX (5 - 9), PTA (5 - 9), MEG (5 - 9), PF(5 - 6), and PX - EB05 on April 25, 2025, were 60, 48, 6, 2, and 176 respectively [1]. - **Inter - variety Spread Changes**: The daily changes in the spreads of PTA05 - 0.65PX05, PTA05 - MEG05, PTA05 - PF05, PF05 processing margin, and PTA05 - LU05 on April 25, 2025, were - 3, 91, 58, - 42, and - 5 respectively [1]. - **Basis and Spread Changes**: The daily changes in the basis of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and the PX - naphtha spread on April 25, 2025, were - 0, 68, - 6, - 28, and 8 respectively [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Changes**: On April 25, 2025, the PTA warehouse receipts decreased by 10,072 compared with the previous day, and the short - fiber warehouse receipts decreased by 86 [1]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Contract Pre - collection**: The May PX contract pre - collection of a major domestic supplier is 6600 yuan/ton on an acceptance basis, and the PTA contract pre - collection is 4600 yuan/ton on an acceptance basis [3]. - **Device Maintenance**: A 225 - million - ton PTA device in the Northeast has stopped as planned, with an expected maintenance period of about 6 weeks. A 30 - million - ton IPA device in East China has stopped for maintenance, with an expected duration of about 1 month [3]. - **Market Transactions**: On April 27, PTA futures were closed. Driven by polyester sales, the PTA spot negotiation atmosphere was fair. The May basis jumped, and some suppliers stopped offering. MEG futures were also closed, and market negotiation was scarce. The average sales rate of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was about 70%, and the average sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber was 70% [3][4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **PX**: Overseas device maintenance is increasing, and the Asian PX operating rate has dropped to 68.6%. Domestic devices such as Zhejiang Petrochemical's PX have restarted, and some domestic devices have maintenance plans. In May, it will be in the de - stocking phase, and new devices are expected to be put into operation in June [4]. - **PTA**: Terminal demand expectations have improved, polyester sales have improved, and inventory pressure has eased. Factory maintenance is concentrated, and PTA spot supply and demand are tight. The basis and calendar spread have risen significantly, but it is not recommended to chase the high [4]. - **MEG**: With the exemption of ethane tariffs, domestic device operating rates may rise, and domestic supply will be sufficient. Import volume is high from April to May, and it is difficult to reduce port inventory. Short - term attention should be paid to short positions in the calendar spread when it is high [5].