1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of crude oil 2605 is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating and bullish, and the intraday view is also oscillating and bullish, with an overall reference view of oscillating and bullish due to lingering geopolitical risks [1]. - The core logic is that the US has been taking actions in the Middle East, and while both the US and Iran have signaled the intention to negotiate, the risk has not been eliminated. After the geopolitical premium was temporarily withdrawn and the domestic crude oil futures prices showed a weak downward trend on Tuesday night, it is expected that domestic crude oil futures will maintain an oscillating and bullish pattern on Wednesday [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle and Viewpoint Summary - For crude oil 2605, the short - term (within one week) view is oscillating, the medium - term (two weeks to one month) view is oscillating and bullish, and the intraday view is oscillating and bullish, with an overall reference view of oscillating and bullish [1]. 3.2 Price Movement and Calculation Rules - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price of the current day to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered bearish, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered bullish, and a rise of more than 1% is considered strong. The bullish/bearish concept only applies to the intraday view, not to the short - term and medium - term views [3][4]. 3.3 Price Driving Logic of Crude Oil - The US has been taking actions in the Middle East, with Trump signaling a one - month cease - fire and peace talks with Iran to discuss a 15 - point agreement to soothe market sentiment. There were military conflicts over the weekend, but as both sides signaled peace talks, the geopolitical premium was temporarily withdrawn, and the domestic crude oil futures prices were weak on Tuesday night. However, risks remain, and it is expected that the market will be oscillating and bullish on Wednesday [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PX is expected to experience a short - term callback and engage in reverse calendar spread trading. PTA will follow the cost - side callback in the short term and focus on reverse calendar spread trading at high levels. MEG should close long positions around 4200 - 4300, with support below 4000. The 5 - 9 calendar spread long positions should be closed. [1][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price and Fluctuation - **Futures**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures on the previous day were 8902, 6200, 4305, 7620, and 666.3 respectively, with price drops of - 126, - 116, - 292, - 160, and - 105.5 and percentage drops of - 1.40%, - 1.84%, - 6.35%, - 2.06%, and - 13.67% respectively. The month - spreads of PX5 - 9, PTA5 - 9, MEG5 - 9, PF3 - 4, and SC2 - 3 also changed, with price changes of 66, 54, - 100, - 40, and - 5.2 respectively. [2] - **Spot**: The spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent on the previous day were 1157.33 dollars/ton, 6360 yuan/ton, 4188 yuan/ton, 841.5 dollars/ton, and 87.94 dollars/barrel respectively, with price drops of - 188.34 dollars/ton, - 425 yuan/ton, - 622 yuan/ton, - 150 dollars/ton, and - 14.9 dollars/barrel respectively. [2] - **Spot processing fees**: The spot processing fees such as PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread also changed. For example, the PX - naphtha spread increased by 17 dollars/ton, while the PTA processing fee decreased by 35.45 yuan/ton. [2] Market Conditions - On March 10, Asian xylene prices fell during the trading session. The PX market lost upstream support and partially reversed the previous day's gains. The upstream ICE Brent futures and Platts - evaluated naphtha C + F Japan index also declined. [3] - In the Asian trading session on the afternoon of March 10, crude oil futures fell as world leaders announced measures to ease supply risks. PTA and PX futures also closed lower than the previous trading day. Some market participants adopted a wait - and - see attitude, and a trader expected the reverse trading structure to continue. [4] Supply - side Changes - For PX, the supply reduction is limited. Ningbo Daxie had a short - term shutdown, and the shipping speed of Japan's ENEOS slowed down. [5] - For MEG, a 1.8 - million - ton/year synthetic - gas - to - ethylene - glycol plant in Shaanxi started partial capacity maintenance today, expected to last about 3 weeks. A 620,000 - ton/year ethylene - glycol plant in Kuwait has recently shut down, and the restart time will be followed up. [4][5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG are all - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific trading strategies are suggested for PX, PTA, and MEG [5][6] Core Viewpoints - The markets of PX, PTA, and MEG are in a high - level volatile state. For PX, in the short - term, with geopolitical conflicts raising costs but no significant further increase in oil prices, it is recommended to exit long positions around 8200 - 8300 and reduce positions in the 5 - 9 month spread on rallies. In the medium - term, supply reduction will gradually materialize due to multiple PX device overhauls. The strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA can be continued. For PTA, the valuation has been restored, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the market's pull - back after a rally. Long positions should be exited around 5700 - 5800, and the 5 - 9 month spread positive arbitrage should be exited. The strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA should be continued. For MEG, long positions should be exited around 4200 - 4300, and there is support below 4000. The 5 - 9 month spread positive arbitrage should be exited. The supply of MEG is tightening, which supports its valuation [5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **PX**: The PX2605 contract closed at 8088 yuan/ton, up 148 yuan/ton from the previous close, with a daily increase of 1.30%. The 5 - 9 month spread was 190, up 92 from the previous day [1][3] - **PTA**: The PTA2605 contract closed at 5694 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton from the previous close, with a daily increase of 1.53%. The 5 - 9 month spread was 98, up 56 from the previous day [1][3] - **MEG**: The MEG main contract closed at 4078 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton from the previous close, with a daily increase of 1.32%. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 7, up 41 from the previous day [1] - **PF**: The PF main contract closed at 7158 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous close, with a daily increase of 1.13%. The 3 - 4 month spread was - 148, up 106 from the previous day [1] - **SC**: The SC main contract closed at 641.1 yuan/ton, up 68.8 yuan/ton from the previous close, with a daily increase of 12.02%. The 2 - 3 month spread was 5.2, up 16.9 from the previous day [1] Spot Market - **PX**: The CFR China price was 1026.83 US dollars/ton, up 7.66 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread was 295.04 US dollars/ton, down 2.13 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - **PTA**: The spot price in East China was 5605 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous day. The processing fee was 285.43 yuan/ton, down 90.45 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - **MEG**: The spot price was 3974 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton from the previous day. The 2026.2.26 - 2026.3.4 MEG monthly settlement reference price was 3791 yuan/ton; the 2026.3.1 - 2026.3.4 MEG monthly average price was 3897.67 yuan/ton [1][4] - **Naphtha**: The MOPJ price was 776.5 US dollars/ton, up 39.25 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread was - 4.34 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - **Brent**: The Dated Brent price was 81.16 US dollars/barrel, down 3.71 US dollars/barrel from the previous day [1] Device and Production - A 770,000 - ton PX device in South Korea started scheduled maintenance on March 4 and is expected to restart in late April [1] - A 260,000 - ton direct - spinning polyester staple fiber device in Suzhou started heating up for restart today and is expected to produce products next week. A 250,000 - ton polyester device in Nantong has restarted and produced products this week. A 400,000 - ton polyester device in Shaoxing has delayed its start - up due to a melt valve failure and is expected to start up this weekend or early next week [4] Market Sales - On March 4, the overall sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang declined, with an estimated average sales rate of around 40% by 4 pm. The sales rates of several factories were 60%, 100%, 0%, 25%, 75%, 40%, 40%, 0%, 10%, 100%, 0%, 40%, 30%, 30%, 60%, 80%, 50%, 80% respectively [5] - On March 4, the sales of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factories were average, with an average sales rate of 52% by 3 pm. The sales rates of some factories were 120%, 40%, 50%, 0%, 60%, 20%, 35%, 80%, 70% respectively [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a neutral trend [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX has a strong unilateral trend, suggesting a long 05 and short 09 hedge, and long PX short PF. Geopolitical issues support the near - end cost, and attention should be paid to domestic PX operating rate changes [9]. - PTA has a strong near - end support. It is recommended to use a long 05 and short 09 hedge and long SC short PTA. Cost - end crude oil and PX are expected to rise, with main valuation disturbances from PX cost [9]. - MEG should be operated in the 3700 - 4000 range with a 5 - 9 positive spread strategy. Iranian partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may reduce marginal imports, and short - covering may drive price recovery [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **PX**: The previous day's closing price of the PX main contract was 7836, up 442 with a daily increase of 5.98%. The PX5 - 9 spread closed at 30, up 56 from the previous day [2]. - **PTA**: The previous day's closing price of the PTA main contract was 5552, up 302 with a daily increase of 5.75%. The PTA5 - 9 spread closed at 14, up 40 from the previous day [2]. - **MEG**: The previous day's closing price of the MEG main contract was 3925, up 222 with a daily increase of 6.00%. The MEG5 - 9 spread closed at - 107, up 25 from the previous day [2]. - **PF**: The previous day's closing price of the PF main contract was 7002, up 350 with a daily increase of 5.26%. The PF3 - 4 spread closed at - 254, down 192 from the previous day [2]. - **SC**: The previous day's closing price of the SC main contract was 527.8, up 39.4 with a daily increase of 8.07%. The SC2 - 3 spread closed at 4.5, up 0.1 from the previous day [2]. Spot Market - **PX**: The previous day's PX CFR China price was 999.33 dollars/ton, up 67.66 dollars from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread was 295.04 dollars, down 2.13 dollars [2]. - **PTA**: The previous day's PTA price in East China was 5345 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan. The PTA processing fee was 285.43 yuan, down 90.45 yuan [2]. - **MEG**: The previous day's MEG spot price was 3750 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan [2]. - **Naphtha**: The previous day's MOPJ naphtha price was 715.5 dollars/ton, up 78.88 dollars. The MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread was - 4.34 dollars, unchanged [2]. Fundamental Data PX - In 2025, the Middle East had 6.1 million tons of PX nameplate capacity, accounting for 7.4% of global output. On March 2, PX prices rose significantly, and the estimated price was 999 dollars/ton, up 67 dollars from last Friday. An East China 2.5 million - ton PX unit is under maintenance, and another 2 million - ton unit is planned to be shut down in mid - March for 30 - 40 days [5]. PTA - An East China 2.5 million - ton PTA unit, a 3.6 million - ton unit, and a South China 1.25 million - ton unit have resumed normal operation. An East China 3 million - ton PTA unit is planned to be shut down for maintenance tomorrow for about 18 days [6]. MEG - An Iranian 450,000 - ton/year MEG unit has shut down, and the restart time is undetermined. The March shipment plan of another 400,000 - ton/year unit has been canceled. On March 2, the MEG port inventory in some main ports in East China was about 1.002 million tons, up 20,000 tons [6]. Polyester Market - On March 2, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 8 - 9%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber plants were partially strong, with an average sales rate of 88%. Over the weekend, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were strong, with an average sales rate of over 300% [7]. - Two East China polyester bottle - chip units totaling 1.2 million tons have restarted. A Henan 150,000 - ton direct - spun polyester staple fiber unit stopped feeding for maintenance on March 2 for 10 days. A Zhejiang 400,000 - ton unit has restarted, and a 200,000 - ton polyester unit in Taicang has restarted [8]. Geopolitical Impact - US President Donald Trump said the war between the US and Iran is expected to last four to five weeks but may last longer. On March 2 afternoon, crude oil futures rose due to the intensification of US - Iran tensions, and the key shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz was affected [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend. The short - term view is oscillating and bullish, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is bullish. The reference view is a strong operation [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle View - For crude oil 2604, the short - term view (within one week) is oscillating and bullish, the medium - term view (two weeks to one month) is oscillating, and the intraday view is bullish [1] 3.2 Core Logic - With the military attacks by the US and Israel on Iran, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has rapidly increased. Iran has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, preventing the transportation of energy supplies such as crude oil and natural gas from the Middle East. The premium of crude oil may increase significantly. Although OPEC+ oil - producing countries have announced an increase in production starting from the second quarter, the short - term geopolitical factors outweigh the weak supply - demand fundamentals of crude oil. Driven by bullish factors, international crude oil futures prices have risen sharply, which may drive the domestic crude oil futures to open sharply higher and operate strongly on Monday [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures on SC will maintain a weak and volatile pattern on Friday, February 6, 2026 [1][5]. 3. Summary of Related Catalogs 3.1 Time Cycle Classification - Short - term: within a week; Medium - term: two weeks to one month [1] - For short - term and medium - term, there is no distinction between strong and weak. Only the intraday view has such a distinction. A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weak - bias, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered strong - bias, and a rise of more than 1% is considered strong [3][4] 3.2 Crude Oil 2604 Outlook - Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weak - bias; Overall view: weak operation. The core logic is that the peace talks between the US and Iran have led to a weak and volatile trend in crude oil [1] 3.3 Crude Oil (SC) Market Analysis - Intraday view: weak - bias; Medium - term view: volatile; Reference view: weak operation - Core logic: The marginal improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals provides strong support. OPEC+ major oil - producing countries will continue to suspend production increases in March 2026, keeping the production at the December 2025 level, alleviating concerns about oversupply. The US winter storm has affected crude oil production, with a 3.5 - million - barrel reduction in crude oil inventory last week and a 743,000 - barrel decline in Cushing inventory. The better - than - expected inventory drawdown strengthens the bullish logic. However, the peace talks between the US and Iran on February 6 have cooled geopolitical risks, leading to a weak and volatile trend in domestic crude oil futures on Thursday night [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report Core View - The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and a weak intraday view. The supply - demand surplus dominates, leading to an oscillating and weak trend in crude oil [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price and Market Outlook - The short - term view of crude oil 2602 is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak. It is expected to run weakly [1] - On Tuesday night, domestic crude oil futures maintained an oscillating and weak trend with a slight decline in price. It is expected that on Wednesday, the price of domestic crude oil futures may maintain an oscillating and weak trend [5] Driving Factors - During the New Year's Day holiday, geopolitical risks increased rapidly due to the US military operation in Venezuela and President Trump's threat to other South American countries, which may be an important geopolitical factor for post - holiday oil price increases [5] - The long - term and medium - term logic for the decline in oil prices is the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market. The concern about global supply surplus persists, causing a pessimistic sentiment among investors [5]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures (SC2602) will run weakly in the short - term and mid - term, showing an overall trend of weakening after a period of shock. The short - term and mid - term trends are both "shock", and the intraday trend is "weak", with the reference view being "weak operation" [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Price and Trend - The short - term (within one week) and mid - term (two weeks to one month) trends of crude oil 2602 are "shock", and the intraday trend is "weak". The reference view is that it will operate weakly [1]. Driving Logic - The recent sharp escalation of the US - Venezuela situation is the most direct and powerful driving force for the rebound of oil prices. The US has increased pressure on Venezuela, with an estimated cumulative seizure of about 6 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil. Venezuela exported about 600,000 barrels per day in November, and the number of tankers going to Venezuela has decreased, leading to concerns about a global supply gap and pushing up the risk premium of oil prices. - The attack on Russian refineries by Ukraine has made geopolitical factors dominant in the short - term oil market. - After the short - term positive factors are digested, the domestic crude oil futures prices stabilized in a shock on the night session of Monday, and the futures prices gave back their gains. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures will operate weakly in a shock on Tuesday [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Viewpoint - The report believes that due to geopolitical risks, the domestic crude oil futures (SC) are expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending movement. The short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, and the intraday trend is expected to be on the stronger side [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price Trend and Viewpoint - For crude oil 2602, the short - term trend is volatile, the medium - term trend is volatile, the intraday trend is on the stronger side, and the overall reference view is a stronger - trending movement [1]. - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is on the stronger side, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is a stronger - trending movement [5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The sharp escalation of the US - Venezuela situation is the most direct and powerful driving force for the oil price rebound. The Trump administration in the US has increased pressure on Venezuela, including a "full and complete blockade" of sanctioned oil tankers and plans to seize more Venezuelan oil tankers. Approximately 6 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil have been seized in total. Venezuela exported about 600,000 barrels per day in November. The decrease in the number of oil tankers going to Venezuela has led to concerns about a substantial global crude oil supply gap, pushing up the risk premium of oil prices. Additionally, the attack on Russian refineries by Ukraine has made geopolitical factors dominant in the short - term oil market [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Report's Core View - The crude oil futures contract 2602 is expected to run strongly with short - term and medium - term oscillations and a bullish intraday trend, mainly driven by increased geopolitical risks [1][5]. 3) Summary Based on Related Catalogs Price and Trend - The short - term view of crude oil 2602 is oscillation, the medium - term view is also oscillation, and the intraday view is bullish, with a reference view of running strongly [1]. - It is estimated that domestic crude oil futures may maintain a bullish pattern on Tuesday [5]. Driving Logic - The recent sharp escalation of the US - Venezuela situation is the most direct and powerful driving force for the oil price rebound. The US has increased pressure on Venezuela, including a "full and complete blockade" of sanctioned oil tankers and plans to seize more tankers. About 600 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil have been seized in total. Venezuela is an important oil exporter with an export volume of about 600,000 barrels per day in November. The decrease in the number of tankers going to Venezuela due to US pressure has led to concerns about a substantial gap in global crude oil supply, thus increasing the risk premium of oil prices. Geopolitical factors dominated the short - term oil market, leading to a bullish and oscillating trend in domestic crude oil futures prices on Monday night [5].