城镇化下半程
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国联民生证券房地产首席分析师杜昊旻:房地产GDP占比将企稳,城镇化下半程都市圈潜力巨大
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-12-03 00:41
Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted the potential for a bull market in A-shares, attracting global capital into the Chinese capital market [1] Group 1: Real Estate Industry Insights - The real estate sector remains a pillar of the economy, even as technology innovation drives development [1] - In developed economies like the US and Japan, real estate contributes approximately 11%-12% to GDP, while in China, it has decreased to around 5% due to cyclical adjustments [2] - The real estate sector's GDP contribution in China is expected to stabilize between 6%-7% as the market gradually stabilizes [2] Group 2: Urbanization and Population Trends - As urbanization progresses, population concentration in major metropolitan areas will increase, following patterns observed in developed economies [2] - Currently, the population in provincial capitals in China accounts for only 11%-14% of the total provincial population, indicating significant potential for urban agglomeration [2] - The Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area are identified as key regions for future population growth and real estate demand [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The real estate industry is expected to integrate deeply into the development of core metropolitan areas, driven by population and industrial concentration [2]
国联民生证券杜昊旻:房地产GDP占比将企稳,城镇化下半程都市圈潜力巨大
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-12-03 00:39
Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted the potential for a bull market in A-shares, attracting global capital into the Chinese capital market [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The real estate sector remains a pillar of the economy in China, even as technology innovation drives economic development [1][2] - The proportion of real estate in China's GDP has decreased to approximately 5%, down from 7%-7.5% due to cyclical adjustments, but is expected to stabilize between 6%-7% as the market stabilizes [2] - The population is expected to concentrate in major urban areas, creating stronger urban radiation groups, similar to trends observed in developed economies [2] Group 2: Regional Development - The Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area are identified as key regions for future population concentration, which will support local real estate market demand [2] - Current population ratios in provincial capitals indicate significant room for growth in core urban areas, with only 11%-14% of provincial populations residing in these cities [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The real estate industry is anticipated to integrate deeply into the development of core urban areas, driven by population and industrial clustering, leading to new and higher-quality growth dynamics [2]