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中国核电(601985.SH):本次政策调整对公司影响可控
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-20 07:44
Core Viewpoint - The policy adjustment has a controllable impact on China Nuclear Power (601985.SH), with specific financial implications outlined for both operational and under-construction nuclear power units [1] Summary by Categories Impact on Operational Units - The value-added tax (VAT) refund policy for the 26 operational nuclear power units remains unchanged and consistent with previous policies [1] Impact on Under-Construction Units - For the 19 approved but not yet operational nuclear power units, due to the input tax deduction during the construction period, there will typically be no VAT payable for the first 5-6 years of operation, resulting in no VAT refunds [1] - For a single Hualong One unit, the comparison with the previous policy indicates that there will be no VAT payable in the first 5 years of operation, and no VAT refunds [1] - From the 6th to the 10th year of operation, the estimated annual impact on the company's net profit attributable to shareholders is approximately 20 million yuan, and from the 11th to the 15th year, it is approximately 56 million yuan annually [1] - The total estimated impact on the company's net profit attributable to shareholders over the lifespan of these units is around 400 million yuan [1] - The effects of this policy change on the company's future operating results are expected to gradually manifest after 2030, with no significant impact during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Future Projects - For new nuclear power units approved after October 31, 2025, there will be no VAT refunds [1]
中国核电20251019
2025-10-19 15:58
Summary of China Nuclear Power Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the nuclear power industry in China, specifically focusing on the impact of recent tax policy changes on China Nuclear Power's operations and profitability. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Existing VAT Refund Policy**: The VAT refund policy for the 26 operational nuclear power units remains unchanged, adhering to the 2008 document, with refunds of 75% for the first five years, 70% for the second five years, and 55% for the third five years, ensuring stable returns for existing units [2][4][6]. 2. **New VAT Policy for Under-Construction Units**: For the 19 under-construction units approved before October 31, 2025, the VAT refund policy is adjusted to a 50% refund over ten years, impacting cash flow during the first decade post-commissioning [2][4][5]. 3. **Impact on Future Projects**: New units approved after October 31, 2025, will not benefit from VAT refunds, potentially lowering future project returns, although the short-term impact on China Nuclear Power's profits is limited [2][4][5]. 4. **Zhangzhou Unit 2**: This unit is expected to miss the VAT refund adjustment window and is projected to commence commercial operation by the end of the year [2][4][6]. 5. **Impact of Wind Power VAT Cancellation**: The cancellation of VAT refunds for onshore wind power is expected to reduce the company's total profit by approximately 75 million yuan annually, with a net profit impact of about 30 to 40 million yuan [2][8]. 6. **Cost Reduction Measures**: The company is implementing measures such as standardization, digitalization, and financial strategies like interest rate swaps to mitigate the financial pressure from VAT adjustments and ensure investor returns [3][9]. 7. **Future Commissioning Schedule**: The commissioning schedule for the 19 under-construction units includes one unit in 2025, two in 2026, five in 2027, and two to three annually thereafter, with a projected net profit impact of about 20 million yuan per unit during the first five to six years post-commissioning [4][7]. 8. **Profitability of Nuclear Projects**: Each nuclear project with an investment of 20 billion yuan is expected to generate a significant input tax balance, with no clear limit on the input deduction period [8][9]. 9. **Supplier Relations**: The company will not pressure upstream equipment suppliers to lower prices in response to the VAT refund cancellation, emphasizing the importance of maintaining quality and sustainable operations in the supply chain [10]. Other Important Information - The company has been actively communicating with relevant government departments regarding the importance of nuclear power for clean energy and has been monitoring policy changes closely [7]. - The overall impact of the new VAT policy on profits during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (ending in 2025) is expected to be minimal, while potential impacts may arise in the 16th Five-Year Plan and beyond as new projects come online [4][5].