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看阳光电源和寒武纪,聊聊估值逻辑
雪球· 2025-05-26 07:42
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the divergence between stock market valuations and company performance, highlighting that market capitalization can significantly outpace actual earnings growth, as seen in the cases of 阳光电源 and 寒武纪 [2][4]. Group 1: Company Performance and Market Valuation - 阳光电源's stock price increased over 20 times from around 6.0 to over 120 within 14 months, reaching a market cap of over 200 billion, despite experiencing a 28% decline in net profit during its peak [2]. - 寒武纪's stock saw a rise to over 800, reflecting a 16-fold increase, while its revenue showed minimal growth and continued losses until a turning point in Q1 2025 [2]. - Both companies' market valuations have led their performance by at least two years, indicating a disconnect between market expectations and actual financial results [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Valuation Logic - The phenomenon of market valuations outpacing earnings is not unique to A-shares; it is also observed in U.S. stocks like Amazon and Tesla, which saw significant market caps despite not generating profits [4]. - The article emphasizes that price-to-earnings (PE) ratios reflect future value creation expectations, while financial reports provide a retrospective view of performance [5][6]. - The relationship between valuation and financial performance varies with industry development stages; in early growth phases, valuations can lead financial performance by a considerable margin [8][11]. Group 3: Industry Development Stages - In stable industries, financial reports can predict future value more accurately, while in rapidly growing sectors, the correlation between financial performance and valuation weakens [8]. - The transition from high growth to stable growth can trigger a shift in valuation logic, as seen with 阳光电源's stock price decline starting in H2 2021 [8]. - Companies like 比亚迪 and 宁德时代 demonstrate a different pattern, where their valuations and financial performance have been in sync during stable growth phases, reflecting market confidence in their competitive positions [9]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Insights - The article concludes that understanding the stage of industry development and a company's competitive strength is crucial for investors, especially in early-stage industries where valuations may not align with current earnings [14]. - The focus should be on both industry development levels and company competitiveness, as these factors are essential for long-term investment success [14].