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药明生物(02269.HK):项目数量创新高 复杂分子驱动景气上行
Ge Long Hui· 2026-01-16 20:41
Company Update - The company participated in the 44th J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, where CEO Dr. Chen Zhisheng updated on the business status for 2025 and provided an outlook for accelerated growth in 2026 [1] - The number of new projects signed in 2025 reached a historical high of 209, surpassing 151 in 2024, with approximately half of the new projects coming from U.S. clients [1] - By the end of 2025, the total number of projects is expected to increase to 945, including 74 Phase III clinical projects and 25 commercial production projects, laying a solid foundation for sustained long-term commercial revenue growth [1] Industry Insights - The complex molecule sector shows high industry prosperity, with about two-thirds of the new projects in 2025 being bispecific antibodies and ADCs, indicating a sustained increase in global outsourcing demand for complex molecules [1] - The bispecific antibody business performed exceptionally well, with the number of projects increasing to 196, contributing nearly 20% of the group's revenue, and a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 120% [1] - The ADC pipeline also maintained strong expansion, with the number of projects increasing by 30% year-on-year to 252 [1] - The company is expected to benefit from structural upgrades in the industry as proprietary technology platforms like CD3 TCE continue to advance, enhancing technical barriers and customer stickiness [1] Commercialization and Global Strategy - In 2025, the company completed 28 PPQ projects, a year-on-year increase of 75%, with 34 PPQ projects scheduled for 2026 based on existing contracts [2] - The acceleration of PPQ projects is anticipated to gradually translate into increased CMO revenue and profit release as the number of Phase III and commercial projects rises [2] - The Singapore WuXi AppTec production base was completed on schedule in June 2025, and a strategic partnership with Qatar was established by the end of 2025 to enhance global operational resilience [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 remains unchanged, while the adjusted profit expectation for 2026 has been raised by 4.8% to 5.85 billion yuan, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 6.55 billion yuan [2] - The current stock price corresponds to adjusted P/E ratios of 29.7x for 2025, 25.5x for 2026, and 22.2x for 2027, with a target price increase of 25% to 45 HKD, reflecting an upward potential of 12.5% [2]