外销业务运营模式调整
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九阳股份(002242):营收持续下滑经营压力不减
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-30 06:34
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and external sales, leading to a downward adjustment in profit forecasts and a rating change to "Accumulate" despite some recovery in profitability [1][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3, the company achieved revenue of 1.598 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 10.99% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 19.58%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 854.6 thousand yuan, showing a year-over-year increase of 101.11% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 95.98% [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.585 billion yuan, a year-over-year decline of 9.66%, and a net profit of 124 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 26.03% [1][2]. Group 2: External Sales Impact - The significant decline in external sales has adversely affected overall revenue performance, with a reported drop of approximately 54% in sales to related parties from January to October 2025 [2]. - The external sales decline is a major factor contributing to the overall revenue downturn, continuing the trend observed in the first half of the year [2]. Group 3: Profitability Improvement - The company's gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 26.92%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to product mix optimization [3]. - The sales expense ratio increased to 16.36%, up 0.74 percentage points year-over-year, attributed to increased promotional efforts for new products [3]. - The gross sales difference for the first three quarters improved to 10.55%, a year-over-year increase of 1.46 percentage points, indicating enhanced profitability [3]. Group 4: Operational Adjustments - The company plans to shift its overseas operational model from self-operated to authorized distribution, leveraging the channel advantages of JS Global and its qualified distributors [4]. Group 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the decline in external sales and increased marketing efforts in the domestic market, the company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, lowering the net profit estimates to 153 million, 306 million, and 372 million yuan, representing reductions of 53.58%, 14.77%, and 8.52% respectively [5]. - The target price has been adjusted to 10.00 yuan, based on a 25 times PE valuation for 2026, down from a previous target of 11.61 yuan [5].