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新宝股份(002705)3Q25业绩点评:外销短期承压 内销温和复苏
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-31 00:39
Core Viewpoint - The company's Q3 2025 performance fell short of expectations due to pressure on export OEM business, influenced by tariffs and a recovering domestic market [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 12.284 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 841 million yuan, an increase of 7.13% [1]. - In Q3 2025, revenue was 4.481 billion yuan, down 9.78% year-on-year, with a net profit of 298 million yuan, down 13.05% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 20.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, impacted by higher costs at the Indonesian factory [2]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 6.7%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Sales Performance - Export sales were affected by tariffs, with year-on-year changes of +15.8% in Q1, -7.7% in Q2, and -11.9% in Q3 2025 [1]. - Domestic sales showed signs of recovery, with year-on-year changes of -4.9% in Q1, -2.6% in Q2, and +1.5% in Q3 2025 [1]. - The brand performance indicates that MoFei is gradually improving, while Dongling continues to perform well, with a 37.5% year-on-year increase in online retail sales in Q3 2025 [1]. Development Trends - Recent US-China summit discussions on trade issues have released positive signals, suggesting that the decline in export sales may narrow in Q4 [3]. - MoFei's revenue is estimated to account for about 40% of the company's domestic sales, and its improving performance, along with Dongling's strong results, is expected to support the continuation of the domestic recovery trend [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to pressure on export sales, the company has lowered its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 3% and 4% to 1.1 billion yuan and 1.18 billion yuan, respectively [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to 11.3 and 10.5 times the projected earnings for 2025 and 2026 [4]. - The target price has been reduced by 3% to 18.10 yuan, implying an 18.1% upside potential from the current stock price [4].