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海澜之家(600398):经营凸显强韧性,H2主业、京东奥莱业务望迎向上周期
Changjiang Securities· 2025-09-01 14:16
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to gradually realize multi-channel growth, with the main brand's offline retail weakness becoming less of a drag on future performance. The new business, JD Outlet, shows high profitability and significant store expansion potential. Coupled with growth from e-commerce, overseas expansion, and the Sporz brand, strong incremental performance is anticipated. The company also has a solid dividend capability, with a projected payout ratio of around 90% in recent years. The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is 2.39 billion, 2.62 billion, and 3.09 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 11%, 10%, and 18%. The corresponding PE ratios are 14, 13, and 11X, with a projected dividend yield of 6.4% in 2025 under the 90% payout assumption [2][4][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 11.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.58 billion yuan, down 3.4% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.57 billion yuan, up 3.8% year-on-year. In Q2 alone, revenue reached 5.38 billion yuan, a 3.6% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 650 million yuan, down 13.9% year-on-year [4][6]. Brand Performance - The main brand's Q2 revenue was 3.75 billion yuan, down 0.9% year-on-year. The offline channel optimization is expected to yield positive same-store growth, while online sales are projected to decline year-on-year. The gross margin for the main brand improved by 1.4 percentage points, attributed to reduced promotional activities. The group purchase segment, Saint Keno, saw a 30% year-on-year revenue increase to 700 million yuan, with a gross margin improvement [4][6]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a high-quality alpha stock within the current market environment, with expectations for the main brand's offline retail challenges to diminish over time. The JD Outlet business is anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue growth, supported by e-commerce and international expansion strategies. The company is also expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, enhancing its attractiveness to investors [2][4][6].