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油价下跌重创美国“多钻井”策略
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-11-18 02:57
Core Insights - Despite the Trump administration's relaxed approval processes and the rollback of climate and export restrictions, the "Drill, baby, drill" strategy has not become the core approach in the U.S. shale oil sector. Most producers are not increasing drilling but are instead focusing on efficiency improvements and activating previously drilled but unfinished wells (DUC wells) to expand production [1][2] - The current regulatory environment for the oil and gas industry is unprecedentedly lenient, with the Trump administration reversing Biden-era policies, restarting federal oil and gas lease sales, opening drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, and lifting the ban on liquefied natural gas export approvals. However, the reality of oil prices around $60 has rendered the "Drill, baby, drill" concept ineffective [1] - The total number of drilling rigs has decreased to 546, down 39 rigs from the same period last year, indicating signs of stagnation in the industry [1] - The $60 price point is seen as a critical threshold for the shale oil industry, with executives from Total Energy and ConocoPhillips indicating that production growth will inevitably slow at this price level. If prices fall to the $50 range, production is likely to decline further [1] - Producers are adopting a "do more with less" strategy, focusing on cost reduction and efficiency to maximize cash flow, rather than blindly increasing drilling activity. Companies are optimizing capital allocation and compressing breakeven points to ensure dividend and debt repayment capabilities [2] - The influence of government policy support is overshadowed by oil price dynamics, with industry experts stating that the "Drill, baby, drill" approach has completely failed, as current price levels do not support expansion [2] - While companies acknowledge the government's regulatory easing, uncertainties related to trade tariffs and presidential price pressure create unease within the industry [3]