Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the CCPI-crude oil price spread is approximately 480 as of the end of August 2025, which is below the 30th percentile since 2012, reflecting high volatility in oil prices due to ongoing global macroeconomic tensions [1] - The downstream chemical products are entering a demand off-season, resulting in low price spreads for chemical products [1] - The main products with price increases in August are those with tight supply and strong overseas demand, suggesting that the petrochemical industry's profitability has reached a bottom [1] Group 2 - Under the guidance of policies such as "anti-involution," supply-side adjustments are expected to accelerate, potentially improving profitability for bulk chemical products [1] - In the medium to long term, the exit of high-energy-consuming facilities in Europe and the U.S., along with economic growth in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, will drive demand increases, making exports a significant growth engine for the domestic chemical industry [1] - Since June 2025, the growth rate of capital expenditure in the industry has been declining, but with accelerated supply-side adjustments, a recovery point may be reached in the second half of 2025, with downstream sectors experiencing cost relief and demand improvement likely to recover first [1]

华泰证券研报表示，2025年8月末CCPI-原油价差约480，处于2012年以来30%以下分位数，全球宏观局 势延续博弈致油价高位波动，且下游多数化工品进入需求淡季，致化工品价差仍处于较低水平。8月提 价产品主要系供给偏紧和海外需求较好的品种，近年来石油化工行业盈利已处底部，在"反内卷"等政策 引导下，供给侧有望加快调整，大宗化工品盈利或迎改善。中长期而言，伴随欧美高能耗装置退出、亚 非拉地区经济增长等需求增量驱动下，出海/出口成为国内化工行业的重要增长引擎；行业资本开支增 速自2025年6月以来持续下降，供给侧加快调整下2025年下半年或迎复苏起点，成本减压及需求改善的 下游环节或率先复苏。 ...