大类资产估值重估

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国泰海通|REIT指数加速下行
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-08-17 12:27
Core Viewpoint - The current REIT market adjustment is primarily driven by pressure from the bond market, with the spread between REITs and government bonds remaining at relatively low levels without significant increases [1][3]. Group 1: REIT Market Performance - In the past week (August 8-15, 2025), three REITs updated their issuance status, including projects from Huaxia Kaide, CITIC Construction Investment, and Guotai Junan [2]. - As of August 15, 2025, there are 73 listed REITs in the domestic market, with a total market capitalization of 217.8 billion and a circulating market value of 102.3 billion [2]. - The overall REIT index declined, with the China REIT Total Return Index dropping by 1.49% to 1080.91 [2]. - The performance of underlying assets showed a general decline, with consumption and energy REITs experiencing smaller drops compared to others [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Valuation - The revaluation of major asset classes remains the main theme in the current REIT market, with increasing divergence in market reactions to short-term positive and negative factors [3]. - The equity market has remained strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 3700 points, while the bond market continues to face pressure, with the 10-year government bond yield approaching 1.75% [3]. - The REIT market, particularly the housing sector, has shown significant weakness, with the gains from recent expansions being largely erased [3]. - Despite the downward volatility in the REIT market since the second half of 2025, the spread with government bonds remains low, indicating limited attractiveness for new capital allocation in the short term [3].