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华润燃气(01193):气量承压毛差修复,分红及回购提供价值
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Gas (01193) [2][7]. Core Views - The company reported a 4.4% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, totaling HKD 49.785 billion, and a 30.5% decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders, amounting to HKD 2.403 billion, which was below expectations [7]. - The retail natural gas sales volume decreased by 0.69% year-on-year, with residential gas volume increasing by 4.2%, while industrial and commercial gas volumes fell by 2.2% and 2.6%, respectively [7]. - The company plans to pay an interim dividend of HKD 0.30 per share, an increase of HKD 0.05 per share compared to the previous year [7]. - The company is focusing on expanding its core city market and enhancing its gas sales margin, which has shown improvement despite the decline in industrial and commercial gas sales [7]. - The company has a strong liquidity position, with cash and bank deposits of HKD 11.24 billion, allowing for share buybacks and maintaining dividends [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the years 2023 to 2027 are as follows: HKD 101.272 billion (2023), HKD 102.676 billion (2024), HKD 99.869 billion (2025E), HKD 104.276 billion (2026E), and HKD 109.483 billion (2027E) [6][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be HKD 5.224 billion (2023), HKD 4.088 billion (2024), HKD 4.213 billion (2025E), HKD 4.963 billion (2026E), and HKD 5.221 billion (2027E) [6][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be HKD 2.30 (2023), HKD 1.80 (2024), HKD 1.85 (2025E), HKD 2.18 (2026E), and HKD 2.29 (2027E) [6][8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 10.3, 8.7, and 8.3, respectively [7].