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天空牌照争夺战:低空电池产业迎来千亿级投资风口
Xiao Fei Ri Bao Wang· 2025-09-15 06:04
Group 1: Policy Breakthrough - The issuance of the first batch of "Sky Licenses" marks a significant policy breakthrough, opening new development space for the low-altitude economy and igniting investment in upstream core supporting industries, particularly eVTOL battery technology [1][2] - The "Sky License" is not merely a management tool but acts as an "amplifier" of industrial value, setting stringent technical and safety thresholds that allow companies with core technologies to gain scarcity premiums [1][2] Group 2: Industry Valuation Logic - The issuance of "Sky Licenses" has reshaped the valuation system in the industry, with companies meeting certification standards seeing their financing valuations increase by 30%-50% [2] - The licensing process has led to the inclusion of technical certification clauses in battery supplier contracts, with high penalties for non-compliance, and brokerages adjusting their rating standards to incorporate "license acquisition capability" into core valuation models [2] Group 3: Battery Technology Revolution - Semi-solid state batteries have become the preferred solution for low-altitude flying vehicles, achieving commercialization milestones that align with the technical requirements of the "Sky License" [3] - Key performance indicators for semi-solid state batteries include safety, energy density, and cycle life, with specific examples of successful developments from companies like Dongfeng Group and Honeycomb Energy [3] Group 4: Capacity Competition - The demand for batteries in the low-altitude economy differs significantly from the automotive industry, focusing on performance rather than cost sensitivity, which alters the competitive landscape [4] - Leading companies are targeting the low-altitude sector with specialized products and capacity expansions, such as Yiwei Lithium Energy and Honeycomb Energy, which are developing high-performance batteries for eVTOL applications [5] Group 5: Market Valuation Effects - The "Sky License" has created a unique commercial value loop, where technical advantages translate directly into market access, reflected in significant changes in valuation models [6] - Companies that obtain licenses see their price-to-sales ratios increase from traditional levels of 1.5-2 times to 3-5 times, indicating a notable valuation premium [6] Group 6: Material Breakthroughs - The core bottleneck for mass production of all-solid-state batteries lies in material costs, which are expected to remain 5-10 times higher than liquid batteries for the next few years, but the performance-first demand in low-altitude applications makes solid-state electrolytes a new investment hotspot [7][8] Group 7: Standardization Competition - The low-altitude economy is entering a phase of intense standardization competition, with Chinese companies leveraging their first-mover advantage in solid-state battery production to transition from "standard followers" to "rule makers" [9][10] Group 8: Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on companies that have obtained "Sky License" pre-approval, those collaborating on eVTOL projects, and firms with patent layouts in solid-state electrolytes and high-nickel materials, as these are critical to the supply chain and will benefit from the growth of the low-altitude battery market [11][12] Group 9: Future Outlook - By 2030, the demand for eVTOL batteries is expected to reach 30 GWh, creating a trillion-level market opportunity, with broader prospects in building the entire low-altitude ecosystem beyond just battery technology [13] - The "Sky License" system is anticipated to evolve, leading to a multi-tiered management system that will create diverse investment opportunities as more companies gain access [13]