央行储备资产结构调整

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央行连续增持,牛市“吹号手”,最新发声
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-10-07 04:17
Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached historic highs, with New York futures hitting $4000 per ounce and spot gold nearing $3980 per ounce, driven by macroeconomic uncertainties and a shift towards hard assets [1][4][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of October 7, New York futures reached $4000 per ounce, marking a new historical peak, although prices later retreated slightly [4]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 to $4900 per ounce, up from a previous estimate of $4300, citing strong demand from emerging market central banks [2][8]. - The continuous increase in gold prices is attributed to a lack of significant sell-offs and sustained demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [6]. Group 2: Central Bank Activities - The People's Bank of China reported a gold reserve of 74.06 million ounces at the end of September, marking the 11th consecutive month of gold accumulation [2][6]. - A survey indicated that over 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019 [9]. - UBS forecasts that central bank demand for gold will remain between 900 to 950 tons in 2025, highlighting the importance of central banks as major buyers in the gold market [9]. Group 3: Market Analysis - Analysts from City Index and FOREX.com noted that macroeconomic uncertainties and a weakening dollar are contributing to the upward trend in commodity prices, including gold [6]. - The shift in reserve asset structures from dollar-denominated bonds to physical assets like gold is seen as a significant global rebalancing [6].