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21世纪经济报道 记者 崔文静 广州报道 "'十五五'规划建议将科技创新与产业体系关系重新定位——技术必须扎根产业土壤，方能避免沦为资 本泡沫。"在南方财经论坛2025年会证券业分论坛上，中国银河证券首席经济学家、研究院院长、中国 银河国际副行政总裁章俊如是表示。 12月5日至6日，以"共识的力量——创新涌动，中国资产重估"为主题的南方财经论坛2025年会在广州召 开。本届论坛由南方财经全媒体集团主办，吸引了众多金融界、学术界和企业界代表参与。 在证券业分论坛上，章俊主持了一场汇聚国内知名券商首席经济学家的圆桌对话，围绕"十五五"开局之 年的经济走势、资本市场前景等关键议题展开深入探讨。 内需驱动与再平衡：2026年全球经济与中国经济发展新图景 章俊在开场中指出，当前正值"十五五"规划建议稿发布之际，2026年作为规划开局之年，其经济走向备 受关注。他引导与会首席经济学家聚焦核心问题：能否就2026年全球经济与中国经济走势达成初步共 识？ 经过深入讨论，与会专家形成三点核心共识： 共识一：内需驱动成为增长主引擎。与会专家一致认为，消费与投资将成为2026年中国经济增长的主要 驱动力。在"十五五"规划建议强调提 ...

风险提示：以上内容仅作为作者或者嘉宾的观点，不代表和讯的任何立场，不构成与和讯相关的任何投 资建议。在作出任何投资决定前，投资者应根据自身情况考虑投资产品相关的风险因素，并于需要时咨 询专业投资顾问意见。和讯竭力但不能证实上述内容的真实性、准确性和原创性，对此和讯不做任何保 证和承诺。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 股票名称 板块名称 ["TMT","顺周期板块","科技成长板块"] A股布局、AI成长主线、顺周期板块 看多看空（看多） 海外扰动加速A股内部"再平衡"，一方面为AI等景气成长主线提供布局窗口， 当前TMT回调后已到短期性价比较高区域；另一方面为顺周期板块提供估值修复契机，可寻找可 持续的估值修复机会。因此对A股看多。 兴业证券11月16日发布报告《全球"再平衡"之后，如何布局？——A股策略展望》。11月以来全球股市 结构"再平衡"，资金从科技板块轮动至低位板块。一方面，美国政府停摆"后遗症"持续，美联储延续鹰 派姿态；另一方面，海外对"AI泡沫"悲观基调发酵。 对A股而言，海外影响更多在结构。布局明年景气 有两条思路：一是海外扰动为AI等景气成长主线提供布局窗口 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the challenges investors face as global central banks enter a rate-cutting cycle, with various asset classes presenting unique dilemmas [1] - The U.S. government debt has reached $38 trillion, diminishing the appeal of sovereign bonds as a safe haven [1] - Corporate bonds are offering insufficient risk compensation due to narrow credit spreads, while U.S. stock valuations are at historical highs, indicating significant correction pressure [1] Group 2 - Despite a cautious outlook, there has been a significant inflow of funds into risk assets, particularly technology stocks and gold, with $24.6 billion flowing out of cash assets in the past week [2][4] - The stock market attracted $28.1 billion, with technology stocks seeing a record inflow of $10.4 billion in a single week [2] - The gold market has experienced a cumulative inflow of $34.2 billion over the past 10 weeks, marking a historical high [4] Group 3 - The Chinese stock market has seen its largest weekly inflow since April 2025, amounting to $13.4 billion, reflecting a strong risk appetite amid rate cut expectations [7] - Global stock market capitalization has surged by $20.8 trillion this year due to the ongoing global rate-cutting trend, although risks are accumulating beneath the surface [9] - Hartnett warns of potential economic deterioration if asset prices decline and impact the wealthy, alongside emerging cracks in the credit market [9] Group 4 - Hartnett's "BIG" strategy emphasizes a focus on bonds, international markets, and gold, maintaining a bullish stance on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds with expectations of yields dropping below 4% [10][11] - The forecast for global earnings per share (EPS) growth is 9% over the next 12 months, surpassing market consensus, with a shift from "American exceptionalism" to "global rebalancing" anticipated [13] - Hartnett remains extremely bullish on gold, predicting prices could exceed $6,000 per ounce by spring next year, despite current high positioning in fund manager surveys [14][16]

Core Viewpoint - The current investment landscape is challenging due to anticipated interest rate cuts by central banks, high government debt levels, narrow credit spreads, and elevated stock valuations, leading to a complex decision-making environment for investors [2][11]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. government debt has reached $38 trillion, diminishing the appeal of sovereign bonds as a safe haven [1][2]. - Credit spreads are at a 20-year low, providing insufficient risk compensation for corporate bonds [2]. - The CAPE ratio for stocks is at a high of 40, indicating significant potential for market corrections [1][2]. Group 2: Fund Flows - There has been a substantial outflow from cash assets, totaling $24.6 billion, with $28.1 billion flowing into the stock market, particularly technology stocks which saw a record inflow of $10.4 billion in one week [3][5]. - The gold market has also experienced a surge, with a cumulative inflow of $34.2 billion over the past 10 weeks, marking a historical high [5]. - The Chinese stock market recorded its largest weekly inflow since April 2025, amounting to $13.4 billion, reflecting a strong risk appetite among investors [8]. Group 3: Global Economic Trends - The global stock market capitalization has increased by $20.8 trillion this year, driven by a wave of liquidity from the global interest rate cuts [10]. - There are emerging risks in the market, with potential impacts on the wealthy class if asset prices decline, leading to economic deterioration [11]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The strategy proposed by Hartnett includes maintaining a long position in long-term U.S. Treasuries, with expectations that the 30-year Treasury yield will fall below 4% [13]. - Hartnett is optimistic about international markets, predicting the Hang Seng Index will rise above 33,000 points, and expects a 9% growth in global EPS over the next 12 months [15]. - For gold, Hartnett maintains a bullish outlook, forecasting prices could exceed $6,000 per ounce by spring next year, despite current high positioning among fund managers [17][19].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached historic highs, with New York futures hitting $4000 per ounce and spot gold nearing $3980 per ounce, driven by macroeconomic uncertainties and a shift towards hard assets [1][4][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of October 7, New York futures reached $4000 per ounce, marking a new historical peak, although prices later retreated slightly [4]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 to $4900 per ounce, up from a previous estimate of $4300, citing strong demand from emerging market central banks [2][8]. - The continuous increase in gold prices is attributed to a lack of significant sell-offs and sustained demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [6]. Group 2: Central Bank Activities - The People's Bank of China reported a gold reserve of 74.06 million ounces at the end of September, marking the 11th consecutive month of gold accumulation [2][6]. - A survey indicated that over 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019 [9]. - UBS forecasts that central bank demand for gold will remain between 900 to 950 tons in 2025, highlighting the importance of central banks as major buyers in the gold market [9]. Group 3: Market Analysis - Analysts from City Index and FOREX.com noted that macroeconomic uncertainties and a weakening dollar are contributing to the upward trend in commodity prices, including gold [6]. - The shift in reserve asset structures from dollar-denominated bonds to physical assets like gold is seen as a significant global rebalancing [6].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is initiating interest rate cuts, leading to a surge in global asset prices and creating a bubble driven by loose monetary policy [1] - As of September 22, gold has risen by 35.4%, Bitcoin by 17.2%, and global stock markets by 14.3%, while the dollar index and oil prices have fallen by 9.3% and 11.4% respectively [1] - Michael Hartnett from Bank of America highlights a "run-it-hot" policy environment supported by tariff cuts, tax reductions, and interest rate cuts, providing implicit guarantees for the economy and stock market [1][4] Group 2 - Current market sentiment reflects a belief that "money is depreciating, and holding it is less favorable than spending or investing," driving funds into risk assets [3] - Fund managers are compelled to chase high-risk, high-beta investments to keep up with market benchmarks as the year-end bonus season approaches [3] Group 3 - Historical data suggests that the current market rally may still have room to grow, with past bubbles averaging a 244% rise from low to peak [4] - The "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks have increased by 223% since March 2023, with a dynamic P/E ratio of 39, indicating potential for further gains [4] Group 4 - Hartnett proposes five trading strategies to navigate the current bubble: 1. Go long on core bubble assets 2. Construct a "barbell" portfolio with bubble assets and undervalued value stocks 3. Short corporate bonds of bubble stocks 4. Short U.S. bonds 5. Go long on bond volatility while shorting stock volatility [6][7][8] Group 5 - The ongoing dollar weakness presents opportunities in international markets, with a theme of "global rebalancing" emerging in the latter half of the 2020s [11] - A notable correlation between the yen and Japanese stocks suggests a potential bull market in Japan, indicating a synchronized rise in the yen and stock market [11]

Group 1 - The article highlights significant trends and changes in the global economy and financial markets, emphasizing the impact of populism, inequality, monetary policy, productivity, valuation, artificial intelligence, protectionism, global rebalancing, dollar depreciation, and the rise of cryptocurrencies [1] - In 2024, 32 political elections are expected globally, with 26 resulting in the ousting of incumbents, indicating a shift in political sentiment [1] - The U.S. government debt has reached a historical high of $37 trillion, surpassing the combined GDP of China, Japan, Germany, and India [1] Group 2 - The average unemployment rate for U.S. college graduates has surged to 8.1%, the highest since July 2021, reflecting potential challenges in the job market [3] - The capital expenditure of the "Big Seven" U.S. stocks has increased to 55% of their operating cash flow, up from 20% in 2012, indicating a shift in investment strategies [3] - The effective import tariff rate in the U.S. has reached 15%, the highest since 1937, suggesting a trend towards protectionism [3]

Group 1 - The article highlights the importance of defining a company's strategy, as illustrated by the examples of Jeff Bezos and Bill Miller, emphasizing that a precise definition can lead to strategic decisions on what to add or subtract in a business [1] - A conversation about Bill Miller's long-term investment in Amazon is recommended, showcasing the insights and details that contribute to understanding his investment philosophy [2] - Warren Buffett's recent activities, including increasing his stake in Mitsubishi and clarifying Berkshire Hathaway's position on railway acquisitions, are noted, reflecting his ongoing engagement in investment decisions [2] Group 2 - The article mentions various investment opportunities and insights from industry experts, such as the potential in Hong Kong stocks and the focus on innovation by companies like CATL [2] - Howard Marks' latest memo discusses the current market conditions in the U.S., indicating a shift towards a more concerning outlook, which investors should be aware of [2] - The article encourages readers to engage with investment wisdom through video content, promoting a deeper understanding of investment strategies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of fundamental research and analysis in investment decision-making, highlighting the insights of Jiang Tong, a partner and fund manager at Jinglin Asset Management, regarding market dynamics and emerging sectors [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Jiang Tong believes that the stock market's fundamentals are consistently better than the average macroeconomic performance, attributing this to the capital market's ability to represent the most dynamic and error-tolerant economic units [7]. - The government is enhancing its ability to address market failures through structured interventions, which aim to create long-term competitive advantages for industries [7][8]. - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a significant indicator of this process, promoting reasonable profit margins for enterprises and reducing irrational pricing in international competition [7][8]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Jiang Tong suggests that investors should start considering GNP (Gross National Product) alongside GDP (Gross Domestic Product) as the economy transitions to a moderate growth phase, with GNP growth outpacing GDP [9]. - There is a growing interest from foreign investors in Chinese assets, particularly in advanced manufacturing and new consumer trends [9]. Group 3: AI and Emerging Technologies - The article discusses the transition of AI from theoretical models to practical productivity tools, enhancing labor efficiency across various sectors [11]. - Jiang Tong identifies two key trends: the peak of capital expenditure in the U.S. due to tax incentives from the "Big and Beautiful" Act, and the increasing role of AI as a productivity tool, which is expected to yield returns for AI model companies [12][13]. - The article highlights the importance of tracking advancements in quantum computing, controllable nuclear fusion, and AI applications, particularly in drug discovery and scientific research [14]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Jiang Tong's investment strategy includes a diversified portfolio across A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. stocks, with a focus on sectors like advanced manufacturing, new consumption, and AI-related assets [15][16]. - The article notes that high-dividend stocks are considered a stable foundation in Jiang Tong's portfolio, with a strategy to reduce holdings in stocks with declining dividend attractiveness while maintaining positions in high-dividend leaders [17]. - To capture opportunities in emerging markets, Jiang Tong emphasizes the need for curiosity, continuous learning, and a systematic approach to research and investment [18].