Core Viewpoint - TrendForce's latest smartphone research indicates that global smartphone production is expected to reach 337 million units in Q4 2025, driven by new Apple models, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.7% [4]. Group 1: Smartphone Production Forecast - In 2025, global smartphone production is projected to be approximately 1.254 billion units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.5% due to subsidies in the Chinese market and seasonal demand in the latter half of the year [7]. - By 2026, due to soaring memory prices, smartphone production is expected to decline by about 10%, dropping to at least 1.135 billion units [7]. Group 2: Brand Performance in 2025 - Apple is anticipated to produce around 87 million units in Q4 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 54% and a year-on-year increase of 9%, totaling approximately 239.8 million units for the year [5]. - Samsung's Q4 2025 production is estimated at 58.2 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 11.1%, with a total production of 239.8 million units for the year [5][7]. - Xiaomi's Q4 2025 production is projected to be 41.5 million units, a decrease of 7% quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, with an annual total of nearly 169.8 million units [5][8]. - Oppo is expected to produce about 39.2 million units in Q4 2025, with a slight year-on-year increase of 7%, totaling 143 million units for the year [5][8]. - Vivo's Q4 2025 production is forecasted at 23.8 million units, a significant quarter-on-quarter decrease of 16%, with an annual total of 102 million units [5][8]. - Transsion's Q4 2025 production is expected to be 21.1 million units, down 28% quarter-on-quarter, with an annual total of 98 million units [5][8]. - Honor is projected to produce 19.8 million units in Q4 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7%, with an annual total of 70.5 million units [5][9]. - Lenovo's Q4 2025 production is expected to remain stable at 16 million units, with an annual total of approximately 61 million units [5][9].

Core Viewpoint - The smartphone panel market is expected to decline in 2026 due to high memory costs and supply shortages, marking the end of a growth cycle that began in 2023, with a projected shipment of 2.14 billion units, down approximately 7.3% from 2.31 billion units in 2025 [4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The procurement of smartphone panels in 2026 will be negatively impacted by weak new device shipment momentum and high memory costs, which hinder the supply of second-hand devices [5]. - The demand in the repair market remains stable but is insufficient to fill the gap left by the new device market due to conservative consumer sentiment [5]. - The smartphone panel market is experiencing a trend where high-end products are strengthening, mid-range products are transforming, and low-end products are stabilizing [5]. Group 2: Technology and Specifications - The share of AMOLED smartphone panel shipments is expected to increase from 41.2% in 2025 to 43.2% in 2026, while the share of LTPS LCD is projected to shrink from 4.4% to 2.5% [5]. - The a-Si LCD, targeting low-end models, is expected to maintain a market share of approximately 54.4% [5]. Group 3: Pricing and Cost Management - Smartphone brands may pass some of the increased costs onto consumers while also engaging in aggressive cost control measures across the supply chain, particularly for LCD panels used in mid to low-end models [6]. - The price decline for LCD panels is expected to be significant due to weak demand and inventory adjustments, while even AMOLED panels may face pricing challenges due to conservative procurement strategies and price wars among panel manufacturers [6]. - The soaring memory prices are identified as the biggest variable affecting the smartphone panel market in 2026, with future industry trends dependent on how brands adjust their product mix and inventory levels, as well as consumer acceptance of price increases [6].