存储景气上行

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 化工周报:“十五五”规划或助力化工高质量发展,26年制冷剂配额方案出台,存储景气持续上行-20251026
 Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-26 14:15
 Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [6][19].   Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to support high-quality development in the chemical industry, with an estimated market space of around 10 trillion yuan over the next five years [6][7]. - The introduction of the 2026 refrigerant quota plan is anticipated to lead to a contraction in R22 supply, while demand in the maintenance market remains [6][7]. - The semiconductor materials sector is expected to benefit from rising storage demand, with companies like Yake Technology and Anji Technology recommended for investment [6][7].   Summary by Sections  Industry Dynamics - Oil supply is expected to increase significantly, driven by non-OPEC production, while global GDP growth is projected at 2.8%, stabilizing oil demand [6][7]. - Coal prices are expected to stabilize at a low level, and natural gas export facilities in the U.S. may accelerate, reducing import costs [6][7].   Chemical Sector Configuration - The report highlights a recovery in manufacturing, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.8% [9]. - The investment analysis suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" policy, including textiles, agriculture, and export-related chemicals [6][7].   Key Material Focus - Emphasis is placed on self-sufficiency in key materials, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, with specific companies recommended for investment [6][7].   Price Movements - Recent price movements include a 5.8% increase in Brent crude oil prices and a 2.7% rise in PTA prices [12][13].
