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申万期货品种策略日报:天胶-20260401
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The natural rubber is in the seasonal low - production stage. The early opening of the domestic Yunnan production area increases the expected pressure of new rubber supply, suppressing the rubber price. However, the domestic production area is still in the early stage of tapping with low output, and the specific output situation needs continuous observation. The Thai production area is still in the low - production season, which usually lasts until May. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, China, continues to accumulate, and the short - term supply elasticity weakens, with the raw material rubber price relatively firm. The demand side has stable all - steel tire production. The rubber price is currently facing the pressure of new rubber supply, and the strong night trading of synthetic rubber drives the natural rubber to stabilize and strengthen. The short - term trend is expected to remain strong [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The previous day's closing prices of RU, NR, and BR were 16400, 13670, and 17350 respectively, with price drops of - 165, - 175, and - 375, and percentage drops of - 1.00%, - 1.26%, and - 2.12%. The trading volumes were 90295, 34036, and 683189 respectively. The open interests were 111032, 45063, and 72237 respectively, with changes of 2228, 2020, and - 14968 [2] - **Spreads**: The current spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - BR are 2730, - 950, and - 3680 respectively, with changes of 10, 210, and 200 compared to the previous values [2] - **Basis**: The current RU basis, basis of mixed rubber - RU, and basis of smoked sheet - RU are - 150, - 620, and 3300 respectively, with changes compared to the previous values [2] Spot Market - **Domestic Spot**: The current prices of whole - milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming are 16200, 16250, and 16250 yuan/ton respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.92%, - 0.91%, and 0.00%. The prices of smoked sheet rubber in Shandong and Shanghai are 19700 yuan/ton, with a percentage change of - 0.51%. The prices of mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan are 15780 and 16185 yuan/ton respectively, with percentage changes of 0.61% and - 0.40% [2] - **Downstream in Thailand**: The current prices of Thai smoked sheet, Thai cup rubber, and Thai latex are 79.55, 60.81, and 80 Thai baht/kg respectively, with percentage changes of 0.76%, - 0.62%, and 0.63% [2]