近期，美联储降息预期升温，加之供应偏紧、需求增长以及原材料价格上涨，多重因素共同推动天胶价 格偏强运行。 8月18日至22日当周，天胶期现货价格震荡下跌，但原料价格依然坚挺。钢联数据显示，8月22日，国际 市场合艾杯胶FOB价为49.5泰铢／千克，周环比下跌0.3泰铢／千克；云南产全乳胶上海市场主流价为 14700元／吨，周环比下跌200元／吨；沪胶主力合约收盘价为15625元／吨，周环比下跌280元／吨。 下游轮胎企业开工率继续回升。钢联数据显示，8月22日，国内全钢胎开工率为64.97%，周环比提升 2.35个百分点，为近五年同期次高水平，山东厂内库存可用天数降至同期最低；半钢胎开工率为 71.87%，周环比提升2.76个百分点，库存水平处于同期高位。 综合来看，当前天胶产区虽处于割胶上量期，但泰国与国内降雨偏多影响割胶进度，原料供应趋紧支撑 胶价；国内天胶库存持续下降，供应整体偏紧；美联储鸽派信号提振市场情绪，汽车与轮胎出口稳步增 长，下游开工率提升，进一步拉动天胶消费。整体上，宏观氛围改善与原料成本上升共同支撑天胶价格 偏强运行。 （作者单位：华安期货） 库存方面，天胶期现货库存周环比均有所下降。根据 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年8月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始增加，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14650，基差-975 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比减少，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比减少，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线走平，价格20日线下运行 偏空 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空增 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，短多交易 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增长不如 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF51)**: The spot price is 5728, the futures price is 5622, the basis is 106, and the basis rate is 1.89% with a historical quantile of 70.60% [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: The spot price is 6020, the futures price is 5836, the basis is 184, and the basis rate is 3.15% with a historical quantile of 56.80% [1] - **Rebar (RB2510)**: The spot price is 3402, the futures price is 3290, the basis is 112, and the basis rate is 5.04% with a historical quantile of 65.70% [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2510)**: The spot price is 3430, the futures price is 3402, the basis is 28, and the basis rate is 0.82% with a historical quantile of 29.10% [1] - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: The spot price is 826, the futures price is 769, the basis is 57, and the basis rate is 7.35% with a historical quantile of 47.10% [1] - **Coke (J2601)**: The spot price is 1678, the futures price is 1624, the basis is 54, and the basis rate is 3.21% with a historical quantile of 32.64% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: The spot price is 1175, the futures price is 1163, the basis is 12, and the basis rate is 1.03% with a historical quantile of 27.90% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2509)**: The spot price is 79100, the futures price is 78890, the basis is 210, and the basis rate is 0.27% with a historical quantile of 67.29% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2510)**: The spot price is 20590, the futures price is 20545, the basis is 45, and the basis rate is 0.22% with a historical quantile of 63.12% [1] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: The spot price is 3245, the futures price is 3120, the basis is 125, and the basis rate is 4.01% with a historical quantile of 66.07% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2510)**: The spot price is 22205, the futures price is 22130, the basis is 75, and the basis rate is 0.34% with a historical quantile of 33.95% [1] - **Tin (SN2509)**: The spot price is 268090, the futures price is 266200, the basis is 1890, and the basis rate is 0.70% with a historical quantile of 10.41% [1] - **Nickel (NI2510)**: The spot price is 120825, the futures price is 120330, the basis is 495, and the basis rate is 0.41% with a historical quantile of 80.00% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2510)**: The spot price is 13270, the futures price is 12885, the basis is 385, and the basis rate is 2.99% with a historical quantile of 77.68% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2511)**: The spot price is 87540, the futures price is 85700, the basis is 1840, and the basis rate is 2.10% with a historical quantile of 27.31% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (212511)**: The spot price is 9250, the futures price is 8390, the basis is 860, and the basis rate is 10.25% with a historical quantile of 57.57% [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2510)**: The spot price is 772.7, the futures price is 769.8, the basis is 2.9, and the basis rate is 0.37% with a historical quantile of 24.00% [1] - **Silver (AG2510)**: The spot price is 9042.0, the futures price is 9022.0, the basis is 20.0, and the basis rate is 0.22% with a historical quantile of 42.80% [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: The spot price is 3160.0, the futures price is 2980, the basis is 180.0, and the basis rate is 5.70% with a historical quantile of 4.20% [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: The spot price is 8500, the futures price is 8414.0, the basis is 86.0, and the basis rate is 1.02% with a historical quantile of 10.70% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: The spot price is 9554.0, the futures price is 9500, the basis is 54.0, and the basis rate is 0.57% with a historical quantile of 7.50% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: The spot price is 2627.0, the futures price is 2610, the basis is 17.0, and the basis rate is 0.65% with a historical quantile of 44.50% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (Ol601)**: The spot price is 9950, the futures price is 9828.0, the basis is 122.0, and the basis rate is 1.24% with a historical quantile of 49.40% [1] - **Corn (C2511)**: The spot price is 2260, the futures price is 2170.0, the basis is 90.0, and the basis rate is 4.15% with a historical quantile of 86.80% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2511)**: The spot price is 2730, the futures price is 2489.0, the basis is 241.0, and the basis rate is 9.68% with a historical quantile of 94.60% [1] - **Live Hogs (H251)**: The spot price is 13850, the futures price is 13775.0, the basis is 75.0, and the basis rate is 0.54% with a historical quantile of 44.00% [1] - **Eggs (JD2510)**: The spot price is 3310, the futures price is 3072.0, the basis is 238.0, and the basis rate is 7.75% with a historical quantile of 51.20% [1] - **Cotton (CF601)**: The spot price is 15080, the futures price is 14055.0, the basis is 1025.0, and the basis rate is 7.29% with a historical quantile of 62.50% [1] - **Sugar (SR601)**: The spot price is 6030, the futures price is 5676.0, the basis is 354.0, and the basis rate is 6.24% with a historical quantile of 6.65% [1] - **Apples (AP510)**: The spot price is 8600, the futures price is 8064.0, the basis is 536.0, and the basis rate is 6.24% with a historical quantile of 42.00% [1] - **Jujubes (CJ601)**: The spot price is 11530.0, the futures price is 8300, the basis is 3230.0, and the basis rate is 28.01% with a historical quantile of 3.00% [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Paraxylene (PX511)**: The spot price is 6894.8, the futures price is 6844.0, the basis is 50.8, and the basis rate is 0.74% with a historical quantile of 40.20% [1] - **PTA (TA601)**: The spot price is 4778.0, the futures price is 4705.0, the basis is 73.0, and the basis rate is 1.53% with a historical quantile of 25.40% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: The spot price is 4515.0, the futures price is 4477.0, the basis is 38.0, and the basis rate is 0.85% with a historical quantile of 72.90% [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF510)**: The spot price is 6504.0, the futures price is 6490.0, the basis is 14.0, and the basis rate is 0.22% with a historical quantile of 40.20% [1] - **Styrene (EB2510)**: The spot price is 7285.0, the futures price is 7275.0, the basis is 10.0, and the basis rate is 0.14% with a historical quantile of 24.80% [1] - **Methanol (MA601)**: The spot price is 2424.0, the futures price is 2300.0, the basis is 124.0, and the basis rate is 5.12% with a historical quantile of 7.40% [1] - **Urea (UR601)**: The spot price is 1776.0, the futures price is 1770.0, the basis is - 6.0, and the basis rate is 0.34% with a historical quantile of 10.70% [1] - **LLDPE (L2601)**: The spot price is 7347.0, the futures price is 7255.0, the basis is 92.0, and the basis rate is 1.25% with a historical quantile of 4.00% [1] - **PP (PP2601)**: The spot price is 7056.0, the futures price is 7050.0, the basis is 6.0, and the basis rate is 0.09% with a historical quantile of 21.60% [1] - **PVC (V2601)**: The spot price is 5008.0, the futures price is 4720.0, the basis is 288.0, and the basis rate is 5.75% with a historical quantile of 8.70% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: The spot price is 2655.0, the futures price is 2625.0, the basis is 30.0, and the basis rate is 1.13% with a historical quantile of 43.60% [1] - **LPG (PG2510)**: The spot price is 4478.0, the futures price is 4354.0, the basis is 124.0, and the basis rate is 2.85% with a historical quantile of 37.80% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2510)**: The spot price is 3530.0, the futures price is 3454.0, the basis is 76.0, and the basis rate is 2.20% with a historical quantile of 66.80% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2510)**: The spot price is 11900.0, the futures price is 11715.0, the basis is 185.0, and the basis rate is 1.58% with a historical quantile of 49.60% [1] - **Glass (FG601)**: The spot price is 1162.0, the futures price is 1072.0, the basis is 90.0, and the basis rate is 8.40% with a historical quantile of 34.03% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: The spot price is 1209.0, the futures price is 1309.0, the basis is - 100.0, and the basis rate is 8.27% with a historical quantile of 5.88% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: The spot price is 15675.0, the futures price is 14600.0, the basis is 1075.0, and the basis rate is 7.36% with a historical quantile of 23.75% [1] Stock Index Futures - **IF2509.CFF**: The spot price is 4271.4, the futures price is 4270.0, the basis is - 1.4, and the basis rate is 0.03% with a historical quantile of 58.30% [1] - **IH2509.CFE**: The spot price is 2851.2, the futures price is 2847.0, the basis is 4.2, and the basis rate is 0.15% with a historical quantile of 80.70% [1] - **IC2509.CFE**: The spot price is 6728.1, the futures price is 6695.2, the basis is - 32.9, and the basis rate is 0.49% with a historical quantile of 37.40% [1] - **IM2509.CFE**: The spot price is 7305.5, the futures price is 7276.0, the basis is - 29.5, and the basis rate is 0.40% with a historical quantile of 46.90% [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **2 - Year Treasury Bond (TS2509)**: The spot price is 102.32, the futures price is 100.26, the basis is 0.02, and the basis rate is 0.02% with a historical quantile of 34.10% [1] - **5 - Year Treasury Bond (TF2509)**: The spot price is 105.45, the futures price is 100.48, the basis is 0.06, and the basis rate is 0.06% with a historical quantile of 36.80% [1] - **10 - Year Treasury Bond (T2509)**: The spot price is 107.94, the futures price is 100.37, the basis is 0.05, and the basis rate is 0.05% with a historical quantile of 21.70% [1] - **30 - Year Treasury Bond (TL2509)**: The spot price is 131.12, the futures price is 116.24, the basis is 0.01, and the basis rate is

天胶早报- 2025年8月21日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始增加，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14600，基差-1075 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比增加，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比减少，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格20日线下运行 偏空 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空减 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，短多交易 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增长不 ...

Report Information - Report Date: August 20, 2025 [2] - Report Title: All-variety Spread Daily Report [2] Core Data Summary Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF51)**: Spot price is 5778, futures price is 5678, with a basis of 100 and a basis rate of 1.76% [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: Spot price is 6070, futures price is 5842, basis is 228, basis rate 3.90% [1] - **Rebar (RB2510)**: Spot price is 3290, futures price is 3126, basis is 164, basis rate 5.25% [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil (HC2510)**: Spot price is 3450, futures price is 3416, basis is 34, basis rate 1.00% [1] - **Iron Ore (12601)**: Spot price is 827, futures price is 771, basis is 56, basis rate 7.21% [1] - **Coke (J2601)**: Spot price is 1709, futures price is 1624, basis is 84, basis rate -4.93% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: Spot price is 1175, futures price is 1195, basis is -20, basis rate -1.63% [1] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2509)**: Spot price is 78890, futures price is 79100, basis is -210, basis rate -0.27% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2510)**: Spot price is 20590, futures price is 20545, basis is 45, basis rate 0.22% [1] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: Spot price is 3245, futures price is 3120, basis is 125, basis rate 4.01% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2510)**: Spot price is 22130, futures price is 22205, basis is -75, basis rate -0.34% [1] - **Tin (SN2509)**: Spot price is 268090, futures price is 266200, basis is 1890, basis rate 0.70% [1] - **Nickel (NI5509)**: Spot price is 120825, futures price is 120330, basis is 495, basis rate 0.41% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2510)**: Spot price is 13270, futures price is 12885, basis is 385, basis rate 2.99% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2511)**: Spot price is 85700, futures price is 87540, basis is -1840, basis rate -2.10% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SI2511)**: Spot price is 9400, futures price is 8625, basis is 775, basis rate 8.99% [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2510)**: Spot price is 775.1, futures price is 772.4, basis is -2.7, basis rate -0.34% [1] - **Silver (AG2510)**: Spot price is 9183.0, futures price is 9187.0, basis is -4.0, basis rate -0.04% [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: Spot price is 3161.0, futures price is 2990, basis is 171.0, basis rate 5.41% [1] - **Soybean Oil (V2601)**: Spot price is 8650, futures price is 8526.0, basis is 124.0, basis rate 1.45% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: Spot price is 9630, futures price is 9640.0, basis is -10.0, basis rate -0.10% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: Spot price is 2650, futures price is 2604.0, basis is 46.0, basis rate 1.77% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (Ol601)**: Spot price is 10040, futures price is 9850.0, basis is 190.0, basis rate 1.93% [1] - **Corn (C2511)**: Spot price is 2310, futures price is 2170.0, basis is 140.0, basis rate 6.45% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2511)**: Spot price is 2730, futures price is 2480.0, basis is 250.0, basis rate 10.08% [1] - **Live Pigs (H2511)**: Spot price is 13850, futures price is 13900.0, basis is -50.0, basis rate -0.36% [1] - **Eggs (JD2510)**: Spot price is 3310, futures price is 3065.0, basis is 245.0, basis rate 7.999% [1] - **Cotton (CF601)**: Spot price is 15080, futures price is 14100.0, basis is 980.0, basis rate 6.95% [1] - **Sugar (SR601)**: Spot price is 6040, futures price is 5661.0, basis is 379.0, basis rate 6.69% [1] - **Apples (AP510)**: Spot price is 8600, futures price is 8300, basis is 300, basis rate 3.61% [1] - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: Spot price is 11550.0, futures price is 8300, basis is 3250.0, basis rate 28.14% [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Paraxylene (PX511)**: Spot price is 6774.0, futures price is 6867.7, basis is -93.7, basis rate -1.38% [1] - **PTA (TA601)**: Spot price is 4734.0, futures price is 4675.0, basis is 59.0, basis rate 1.25% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: Spot price is 4475.0, futures price is 4384.0, basis is 91.0, basis rate 2.08% [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF510)**: Spot price is 6485.0, futures price is 6432.0, basis is 53.0, basis rate 0.82% [1] - **Styrene (EB2510)**: Spot price is 7280.0, futures price is 7226.0, basis is 54.0, basis rate 0.75% [1] - **Methanol (MA601)**: Spot price is 2275.0, futures price is 2391.0, basis is -116.0, basis rate -4.85% [1] - **Urea (UR601)**: Spot price is 1730.0, futures price is 1817.0, basis is -87.0, basis rate -4.79% [1] - **LLDPE (L2601)**: Spot price is 7275.0, futures price is 7307.0, basis is -32.0, basis rate -0.44% [1] - **PP (PP2601)**: Spot price is 7075.0, futures price is 7016.0, basis is 59.0, basis rate 0.84% [1] - **PVC (V2601)**: Spot price is 5001.0, futures price is 4750.0, basis is 251.0, basis rate 5.02% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: Spot price is 2625.0, futures price is 2598.0, basis is 27.0, basis rate 1.04% [1] - **LPG (PG2510)**: Spot price is 4428.0, futures price is 3852.0, basis is 576.0, basis rate 14.95% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2510)**: Spot price is 3550.0, futures price is 3453.0, basis is 97.0, basis rate 2.81% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2510)**: Spot price is 11900.0, futures price is 11840.0, basis is 60.0, basis rate 0.51% [1] - **Glass (FG601)**: Spot price is 1196.0, futures price is 1076.0, basis is 120.0, basis rate 11.15% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: Spot price is 1358.0, futures price is 1235.0, basis is 123.0, basis rate 9.96% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: Spot price is 15875.0, futures price is 14850.0, basis is 1025.0, basis rate 6.90% [1] Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: - **IF2509.CFF**: Spot price is 4223.4, futures price is 4216.2, basis is 7.2, basis rate 0.17% [1] - **IH2509.CFE**: Spot price is 2812.4, futures price is 2815.4, basis is -3.0, basis rate -0.11% [1] - **IC2509.CFE**: Spot price is 6655.3, futures price is 6600.0, basis is 55.3, basis rate 0.84% [1] - **IM2509.CFE**: Spot price is 7242.8, futures price is 7177.4, basis is 65.4, basis rate 0.91% [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **2-year Bond (TS2509)**: Spot price is 102.33, futures price is 100.27, basis is 0.03, basis rate 0.03% [1] - **5-year Bond (TF2509)**: Spot price is 105.54, futures price is 100.54, basis is 0.05, basis rate 0.04% [1] - **10-year Bond (T2509)**: Spot price is 108.05, futures price is 100.46, basis is 0.04, basis rate 0.04% [1] - **30-year Bond (TL2509)**: Spot price is 131.47, futures price is 116.46, basis is 0.11, basis rate 0.10% [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The market has support at the bottom, and short - term long trades are recommended. The overall situation of natural rubber is neutral, with multiple factors affecting supply, demand, and price [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Daily Hints - Fundamental situation: Supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rate is at a high level, overall neutral [4]. - Basis: Spot price is 14,750, basis is - 1,155, showing a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; Qingdao area inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year, overall neutral [4]. - Market: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, showing a bullish signal [4]. - Main positions: The main net position is short, and short positions are decreasing, showing a bearish signal [4]. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand** - Supply is increasing, which is a bearish factor [4][6]. - Downstream consumption is high, which is a bullish factor [6]. - Tire production reached a new high in the same period, which is a bullish factor [29]. - Tire industry exports are falling, which is a bearish factor [32]. - Automobile production and sales are seasonally falling, which is a bearish factor [23][26]. - **Price** - The spot price of 2023 whole latex (non - deliverable) fell on August 15 [8]. - The basis weakened on August 15 [35]. - **Inventory** - Exchange inventory has increased recently [14]. - Qingdao area inventory has changed slightly recently [17]. Multi - empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Bullish Factors** - High downstream consumption [6]. - Resilient spot prices [6]. - Anti - involution in the domestic market [6]. - **Bearish Factors** - Increasing supply [6]. - Qingdao area did not have seasonal inventory reduction [6].

Group 1: Metals and Minerals - 72-silicon ferrosilicon qualified block in Inner Mongolia - Tianjin warehouse receipt has a conversion price of 5744, with a futures price of 5828 and a basis rate of 1.46% [1] - 6517-silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia - Hubei warehouse receipt has a futures price of 6070, a spot price of 6050, and a basis rate of 0.33% [1] - HRB400 20mm rebar in Shanghai has a futures price of 3189, and Q235B 4.75mm hot - rolled coil in Shanghai has a futures price of 3432 [1] - 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) from Vale at Rizhao Port has a conversion price, with a futures price change of - 4.22% [1] - Quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke A13, S0.7, CSR60, MT7 at Rizhao Port has a futures price change and historical quantile data [1] - S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi has a futures price of 1191, a spot price of 1214, and a basis rate of - 1.89% [1] - Copper (CU2509) has a futures price of 79435, a spot price of 78950, and a basis rate of 0.61% [1] - Aluminum (AL2509) has a futures price of 20715, a spot price of 20710, and a basis rate of - 0.02% [1] - Zinc (ZN2509) has a futures price of 22480, a spot price of 22440, and a basis rate of - 0.18% [1] - Tin (SN2509) has a high historical quantile of 87.70% [1] - Nickel (NISE09) has a futures price of 121200, a spot price of 122700, and a basis rate of 1.24% [1] - Stainless steel (SS2510) has a futures price of 13025, a spot price of 13370, and a basis rate of 2.65% [1] - Alumina (AO2601) has a futures price of 3240, a spot price of 3248, and a basis rate of 0.25% [1] Group 2: Agricultural Products - Soybean meal (M2601) has a futures price of 2990, a spot price of 3157, and a basis rate of 7.50% [1] - Soybean oil (Y2601) has a futures price of 8520, a spot price of 8610, and a basis rate of 1.06% [1] - Palm oil (P2601) has a futures price of 9368, a spot price of 9370, and a basis rate of 0.02% [1] - Rapeseed meal (RM509) has a futures price of 2686, a spot price of 2540, and a basis rate of - 5.44% [1] - Rapeseed oil (Ol601) has a futures price of 9840, a spot price of 9940, and a basis rate of 1.02% [1] - Corn (C2509) has a futures price of 2281, a spot price of 2320, and a basis rate of 1.71% [1] - Corn starch (CS2509) has a futures price of 2648, a spot price of 2730, and a basis rate of 3.10% [1] - Live pigs (H251) have a futures price of 13900, and the spot price is the same, with a basis rate of 0.00% [1] - Eggs (JD2510) have a futures price of 3090, a spot price of 3189, and a basis rate of - 3.10% [1] - Cotton (CF601) has a futures price of 15060, a spot price of 14155, and a basis rate of 6.39% [1] - Sugar (SR601) has a futures price of 5659, a spot price of 6040, and a basis rate of 6.73% [1] - Apples (AP510) have a futures price of 8600, and the spot price is related to the delivery theoretical price [1] - Red dates (CJ601) have a futures price of 8300, a spot price of 11460, and a basis rate of - 27.57% [1] Group 3: Energy and Chemicals - Para - xylene (PX511) has a futures price of 6614, a spot price of 6775.2, and a basis rate of 2.44% [1] - PTA (TA601) has a futures price of 4640, a spot price of 4630, and a basis rate of - 0.22% [1] - Ethylene glycol (EG2509) has a futures price of 4367, a spot price of 4450, and a basis rate of 1.90% [1] - Polyester staple fiber (PF510) has a futures price of 6338, a spot price of 6475, and a basis rate of 2.16% [1] - Styrene (EB2509) has a futures price of 7238, a spot price of 7345, and a basis rate of 1.48% [1] - Methanol (MA601) has a futures price of 2340, a spot price of 2350, and a basis rate of 0.43% [1] - Urea (UR601) has a futures price of 1726, a spot price of 1720, and a basis rate of - 0.35% [1] - LLDPE (L2601) has a futures price of 7287, a spot price of 7300, and a basis rate of 0.18% [1] - PP (PP2601) has a futures price of 7085, a spot price of 7080, and a basis rate of - 0.07% [1] - PVC (V2509) has a futures price of 4970, a spot price of 4900, and a basis rate of - 1.41% [1] - Caustic soda (SH509) has a futures price of 2530, a spot price of 2562.5, and a basis rate of 1.28% [1] - LPG (PG2509) has a futures price of 3858, a spot price of 440, and a basis rate of 11.40% [1] - Asphalt (BU2510) has a futures price of 3472, a spot price of 3640, and a basis rate of 4.84% [1] - Butadiene rubber (BR2509) has a futures price of 11645, a spot price of 11800, and a basis rate of 1.33% [1] - Glass (FG601) has relevant price and basis data [1] - Soda ash (SA601) has a futures price of 1284, a spot price of 1400, and a basis rate of - 9.03% [1] - Natural rubber (RU2601) has a futures price of 15635, a spot price of 14800, and a basis rate of - 5.64% [1] Group 4: Financial Futures - IF2509.CFF has a futures price of 4173.3, a spot price of 4163.8, and a basis rate of - 0.23% [1] - IH2509.CFE has relevant price and basis data [1] - IC2509.CFE has a futures price of 6380.2, a spot price of 6429.8, and a basis rate of - 0.78% [1] - IM2509.CFE has a futures price of 6929.2, a spot price of 6976.5, and a basis rate of - 0.68% [1] - 2 - year Treasury bond (TS2509) has a futures price of 102.35, a spot price (adjusted) of 100.29, and a basis rate calculation related to the conversion factor [1] - 5 - year Treasury bond (TF2509) has a futures price of 105.69, a spot price (adjusted) of 100.67, and a basis rate calculation related to the conversion factor [1] - 10 - year Treasury bond (T2509) has a futures price of 108.35, a spot price (adjusted) of 100.73, and a basis rate calculation related to the conversion factor [1] - 30 - year Treasury bond (TL2509) has a futures price of 117.82, a spot price of 133.02, and a basis rate calculation related to the conversion factor [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report No information provided. 3. Summary by Related Categories Ferrous Metals - Silicon iron (SF509): Spot price is 5794, futures price is 5828, with a basis of -34 and a basis rate of -0.07%. The historical quantile is 62.40% [1]. - Silicon manganese (SM509): Spot price is 6070, futures price is 6074, with a basis of -4 and a basis rate of -0.07%. The historical quantile is 24.30% [1]. - Rebar (RB2510): Spot price is 3360, futures price is 3470, with a basis of -110 and a basis rate of -3.17%. The historical quantile is 4.28% [1]. - Hot - rolled coil (HC2510): Spot price is 3451, futures price is 3470, with a basis of -19 and a basis rate of -0.55%. The historical quantile is 25.00% [1]. - Iron ore (I2601): Spot price is 795, futures price is 844, with a basis of -49 and a basis rate of -5.87%. The historical quantile is 6.14% [1]. - Coke (J2601): Spot price is 1635, futures price is 1737, with a basis of -102 and a basis rate of -5.87%. The historical quantile is 12.30% [1]. - Coking coal (JM2601): Spot price is 1191, futures price is 1245, with a basis of -54 and a basis rate of -4.34%. The historical quantile is 17.10% [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2509): Spot price is 79475, futures price is 79380, with a basis of 95 and a basis rate of 0.12%. The historical quantile is 54.79% [1]. - Aluminum (AL2509): Spot price is 20790, futures price is 20760, with a basis of 30 and a basis rate of 0.14%. The historical quantile is 45.20% [1]. - Alumina (AO2601): Spot price is 3248, futures price is 3230, with a basis of 18 and a basis rate of 0.56%. The historical quantile is 35.02% [1]. - Zinc (ZN2509): Spot price is 22600, futures price is 22490, with a basis of 110 and a basis rate of 0.49%. The historical quantile is 25.62% [1]. - Tin (SN2509): Spot price is 270200, futures price is 269820, with a basis of 380 and a basis rate of 0.14%. The historical quantile is 59.58% [1]. - Nickel (NI2509): Spot price is 123150, futures price is 122340, with a basis of 810 and a basis rate of 0.66%. The historical quantile is 86.25% [1]. - Stainless steel (SS2510): Spot price is 13420, futures price is 13130, with a basis of 290 and a basis rate of 2.21%. The historical quantile is 62.44% [1]. - Lithium carbonate (LC2511): Spot price is 85100, futures price is 81000, with a basis of 4100 and a basis rate of 5.05%. The historical quantile is 10.57% [1]. - Industrial silicon (SI2511): Spot price is 9400, futures price is 8600, with a basis of 800 and a basis rate of 9.30%. The historical quantile is 54.90% [1]. Precious Metals - Gold (AU2510): Spot price is 777.7, futures price is 774.7, with a basis of 3 and a basis rate of 0.39%. The historical quantile is 20.90% [1]. - Silver (AG2510): Spot price is 9300, futures price is 9278, with a basis of 22 and a basis rate of 0.24%. The historical quantile is 39.20% [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal (M2601): Spot price is 3163, futures price is 3000, with a basis of 163 and a basis rate of 5.43%. The historical quantile is 10.30% [1]. - Soybean oil (Y2601): Spot price is 8680, futures price is 8576, with a basis of 104 and a basis rate of 1.21%. The historical quantile is 16.20% [1]. - Palm oil (P2601): Spot price is 9480, futures price is 9424, with a basis of 56 and a basis rate of 0.59%. The historical quantile is 26.60% [1]. - Rapeseed meal (RM509): Spot price is 2723, futures price is 2620, with a basis of 103 and a basis rate of 3.78%. The historical quantile is 22.80% [1]. - Rapeseed oil (OI601): Spot price is 10200, futures price is 10064, with a basis of 136 and a basis rate of 1.35%. The historical quantile is 53.70% [1]. - Corn (C2509): Spot price is 2300, futures price is 2279, with a basis of 21 and a basis rate of 0.92%. The historical quantile is 58.10% [1]. - Corn starch (CS2509): Spot price is 2730, futures price is 2651, with a basis of 79 and a basis rate of 2.98%. The historical quantile is 36.50% [1]. - Live pigs (H2511): Spot price is 14045, futures price is 13900, with a basis of -145 and a basis rate of -1.03%. The historical quantile is 40.10% [1]. - Eggs (JD2510): Spot price is 3277, futures price is 3090, with a basis of 187 and a basis rate of 5.71%. The historical quantile is 18.40% [1]. - Cotton (CF601): Spot price is 15057, futures price is 14130, with a basis of 927 and a basis rate of 6.56%. The historical quantile is 48.70% [1]. - Sugar (SR601): Spot price is 6030, futures price is 5657, with a basis of 373 and a basis rate of 6.59%. The historical quantile is 69.20% [1]. - Apples (AP510): Spot price is 8600, futures price is 8158, with a basis of 442 and a basis rate of 5.42%. The historical quantile is 37.90% [1]. - Jujubes (CJ601): Spot price is 11410, futures price is 8300, with a basis of 3110 and a basis rate of 27.26%. The historical quantile is 3.70% [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Paraxylene (PX511): Spot price is 6842.2, futures price is 6720, with a basis of 122.2 and a basis rate of 1.82%. The historical quantile is 58.80% [1]. - PTA (TA509): Spot price is 4692, futures price is 4690, with a basis of 2 and a basis rate of 0.04%. The historical quantile is 51.20% [1]. - Ethylene glycol (EG2509): Spot price is 4485, futures price is 4406, with a basis of 79 and a basis rate of 1.79%. The historical quantile is 87.60% [1]. - Polyester staple fiber (PF510): Spot price is 6495, futures price is 6414, with a basis of 81 and a basis rate of 1.26%. The historical quantile is 65.40% [1]. - Styrene (EB2509): Spot price is 7345, futures price is 7297, with a basis of 48 and a basis rate of 0.66%. The historical quantile is 36.70% [1]. - Methanol (MA509): Spot price is 2375, futures price is 2375, with a basis of 0 and a basis rate of 0%. The historical quantile is 52.40% [1]. - Urea (UR601): Spot price is 1730, futures price is 1726, with a basis of 4 and a basis rate of 0.23%. The historical quantile is 12.60% [1]. - LLDPE (L2509): Spot price is 7313, futures price is 7300, with a basis of 13 and a basis rate of 0.18%. The historical quantile is 17.60% [1]. - PP (PP2601): Spot price is 7107, futures price is 7080, with a basis of 27 and a basis rate of 0.38%. The historical quantile is 17.00% [1]. - PVC (V2509): Spot price is 5016, futures price is 4910, with a basis of 106 and a basis rate of 2.11%. The historical quantile is 52.00% [1]. - Caustic soda (SH509): Spot price is 2500, futures price is 2481, with a basis of 19 and a basis rate of 0.77%. The historical quantile is 50.40% [1]. - LPG (PG2509): Spot price is 4298, futures price is 3828, with a basis of 470 and a basis rate of 12.28%. The historical quantile is 63.90% [1]. - Asphalt (BU2510): Spot price is 3640, futures price is 3503, with a basis of 137 and a basis rate of 3.91%. The historical quantile is 75.60% [1]. - Butadiene rubber (BR2509): Spot price is 11750, futures price is 11700, with a basis of 50 and a basis rate of 0.43%. The historical quantile is 24.60% [1]. - Glass (FG601): Spot price is 1214, futures price is 1088, with a basis of 126 and a basis rate of 11.58%. The historical quantile is 19.95% [1]. - Soda ash (SA601): Spot price is 1383, futures price is 1266, with a basis of 117 and a basis rate of 8.46%. The historical quantile is 3.78% [1]. - Natural rubber (RU2601): Spot price is 15800, futures price is 14800, with a basis of 1000 and a basis rate of 6.76%. The historical quantile is 31.04% [1]. Financial Futures - Stock index futures IF2509.CFF: Spot price is 4176.6, futures price is 4170.8, with a basis of -5.8 and a basis rate of -0.14%. The historical quantile is 46.80% [1]. - Stock index futures IH2509.CFE: Spot price is 2818.8, futures price is 2813, with a basis of 5.8 and a basis rate of 0.21%. The historical quantile is 86.90% [1]. - Stock index futures IC2509.CFE: Spot price is 6508.1, futures price is 6451.8, with a basis of -56.3 and a basis rate of -0.87%. The historical quantile is 15.30% [1]. - Stock index futures IM2509.CFE: Spot price is 7064.3, futures price is 7001.8, with a basis of -62.5 and a basis rate of -0.89%. The historical quantile is 23.80% [1]. - 2 - year bond futures (TS2509): Spot price is 100.30, futures price is 102.37, with a basis of -2.07 and a basis rate of -2.06%. The historical quantile is 32.10% [1]. - 5 - year bond futures (TF2509): Spot price is 100.79, futures price is 105.75, with a basis of -4.96 and a basis rate of -4.69%. The historical quantile is 30.80% [1]. - 10 - year bond futures (T2509): Spot price is 100.72, futures price is 108.46, with a basis of -7.74 and a basis rate of -7.12%. The historical quantile is 14.40% [1]. - 30 - year bond futures (TL2509): Spot price is 133.55, futures price is 118.31, with a basis of 15.24 and a basis rate of 12.88%. The historical quantile is 14.60% [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, the domestic inventory starts to increase, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and short - long trading is recommended [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, the domestic inventory starts to increase, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and short - long trading is recommended [4] 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is high. The spot price is resistant to decline, and the domestic anti - involution situation exists. Automobile production and sales are seasonally declining, and tire production is at a record high in the same period, while tire industry exports are falling [4][6][23][29] - **Inventory**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased week - on - week and year - on - year. The inventory in Qingdao area has decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year. The exchange inventory has increased recently, and the Qingdao area inventory has changed slightly [4][14][17] - **Price**: The spot price of 23 - year full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on August 13th, and the Qingdao Free Trade Zone has US dollar quotes [8][11] 3. Multiple and Short Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot price, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Likely to Fall**: Increasing supply and non - seasonal destocking in Qingdao area [6] 4. Basis - The spot price is 14,800, and the basis is - 1,000, showing a bearish signal. The basis strengthened on August 13th [4][35]

Group 1: Metals and Minerals - The price of silicon iron (SF509) is 5828, down 2 or -0.03% from the previous value, with a historical quantile of 59.10% [1] - The price of silicon manganese (SM509) is 6070, and the reference price for the 6517 variety in Inner Mongolia - Hubei warehouse receipts is provided [1] - The price of rebar (RB2510) is 3250, and the price of hot - rolled coil (HC2510) is 3480, up 15 or 0.43% [1] - The price of iron ore (12601) is 797, up 38 or 4.72%, with a historical quantile of 33.20% [1] - The price of coke (J2601) is 1613, down 68 or -4.02%, and the reference price for quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port is 1681 [1] - The price of coking coal (JM2601) is 1145, down 111 or -8.84%, and the reference price for S1.3 G75 main coking coal in Shaheyi is 1256 [1] - The price of copper (CU2509) is 79020, with a basis of 130 and a historical quantile of 58.33% [1] - The price of aluminum (AL2509) is 20700, with a basis of - 50 and a historical quantile of 29.58% [1] - The price of zinc (ZN2509) is 22590, with a basis of - 42 and a historical quantile of 21.04% [1] - The price of tin (SN2509) is 268380, with a basis of - 380 and a historical quantile of 34.58% [1] - The price of nickel (NISE09) is 122130, with a basis of - 30 and a historical quantile of 54.58% [1] - The price of stainless steel (SS2510) is 13225, with a basis of 145 and a historical quantile of 31.75% [1] - The price of alumina (AO2509) is 3249, with a historical quantile of 50.00% [1] Group 2: Agricultural Products - The price of soybean meal (M2601) is 2930, with a basis of - 142 and a historical quantile of 14.10% [1] - The price of soybean oil (V2601) is 8440, with a historical quantile of 11.50% [1] - The price of palm oil (P2509) is 9218, with a basis of - 18 and a historical quantile of 13.10% [1] - The price of rapeseed meal (RM509) is 2724, with a basis of - 134 and a historical quantile of 11.60% [1] - The price of rapeseed oil (O1509) is 9588, with a basis of 72 and a historical quantile of 32.90% [1] - The price of corn (C2509) is 2262, with a historical quantile of 64.90% [1] - The price of corn starch (CS2509) is 2642, with a basis of 108 and a historical quantile of 52.30% [1] - The price of live pigs (LH2511) is 14140, with a basis of - 290 and a historical quantile of 35.80% [1] - The price of eggs (JD2509) is 3271, with a basis of - 181 and a historical quantile of 18.90% [1] - The price of cotton (CF509) is 13680, with a basis of 1367 and a historical quantile of 89.90% [1] - The price of sugar (SR601) is 5573, with a basis of 437 and a historical quantile of 79.10% [1] - The price of apples (AP510) is 8127, with a basis of 153 and a historical quantile of 31.50% [1] - The price of red dates (CJ601) is 11685, with a basis of - 2185 and a historical quantile of 8.20% [1] Group 3: Energy and Chemicals - The price of p - xylene (PX509) is 6778, with a basis of 56.40% and a historical quantile of 1.58% [1] - The price of PTA (TA509) is 4700, with a basis of - 6 and a historical quantile of 49.50% [1] - The price of ethylene glycol (EG2509) is 4490, with a basis of 76 and a historical quantile of 86.30% [1] - The price of polyester staple fiber (PF510) is 6408, with a basis of 82 and a historical quantile of 65.50% [1] - The price of styrene (EB2509) is 7250, with a basis of 55 and a historical quantile of 38.40% [1] - The price of methanol (MA509) is 2382, with a basis of - 7 and a historical quantile of 30.20% [1] - The price of urea (UR509) is 1722, with a basis of 8 and a historical quantile of 13.50% [1] - The price of LLDPE (L2509) is 7285, with a basis of - 29 and a historical quantile of 13.30% [1] - The price of PP (PP2509) is 7095, with a basis of 25 and a historical quantile of 29.20% [1] - The price of PVC (V2509) is 4890, with a basis of - 120 and a historical quantile of 45.90% [1] - The price of caustic soda (SH209) is 2492, with a historical quantile of 48.60% [1] - The price of LPG (PG2509) is 4298, with a basis of 499 and a historical quantile of 67.00% [1] - The price of asphalt (BU2510) is 3481, with a basis of 199 and a historical quantile of 81.90% [1] - The price of butadiene rubber (BR2509) is 11500, with a basis of - 285 and a historical quantile of 7.70% [1] - The price of glass (FG509) is 1088, with a basis of 20 and a historical quantile of 69.74% [1] - The price of soda ash (SA601) is 1241, with a basis of - 104 and a historical quantile of 4.41% [1] - The price of natural rubber (RU2601) is 15755, with a basis of - 1055 and a historical quantile of 25.62% [1] Group 4: Stock Index Futures and Bond Futures - The price of IF2509 is 4104.8, with a basis of - 17.7 and a historical quantile of 25.00% [1] - The price of IH2509 is 2789.4, with a basis of - 0.5 and a historical quantile of 55.20% [1] - The price of IC2509 is 6391.8, with a basis of - 93 and a historical quantile of 3.80% [1] - The price of IM2509 is 6943.9, with a basis of - 92.7 and a historical quantile of 15.60% [1] - The price of 2 - year bond futures (TS2509) is 100.29, with a basis of 0.03 and a historical quantile of 35.60% [1] - The price of 5 - year bond futures (TF2509) is 100.70, with a basis of 0.03 and a historical quantile of 31.80% [1] - The price of 10 - year bond futures (T2509) is 100.84, with a basis of 0.03 and a historical quantile of 18.90% [1] - The price of 30 - year bond futures (TL2509) is 118.51, with a basis of 0.25 and a historical quantile of 33.60% [1]