申万期货品种策略日报-天胶 申银万国期货研究所 倪梦雪 （从业编号F0264569 投资咨询号Z0002226） | | nimx@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586042 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 期货 | | | | 价差 | | | | NR主力 BR主力 | RU主力 | | | | RU-NR | RU-BR | NR-BR | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 17125 | 13910 | 12770 | 现值 | 3215 | 4355 | 1140 | | 货 | 前2日收盘价 | 17240 | 13980 | 13120 | 前值 | 3260 | 4120 | 860 | | 市 | 涨跌 | -115 | -70 | -350 | 涨跌 | -45 | 235 | 280 | | 场 | 涨跌幅 | -0.67% | -0.50% | -2.67% | | | 基差 | | | | 成交量 | 269900 | 36767 | 117318 | ...

| | nimx@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586042 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货 价差 | | | | | | | | | | | RU主力 | NR主力 | BR主力 | | RU-NR | RU-BR | NR-BR | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 17240 | 13980 | 13120 | 现值 | 3260 | 4120 | 860 | | 货 | 前2日收盘价 | 17030 | 13795 | 13160 | 前值 | 3235 | 3870 | 635 | | 市 | 涨跌 | 210 | 185 | -40 | 涨跌 | 25 | 250 | 225 | | 场 | 涨跌幅 成交量 | 1.23% 272777 | 1.34% 56602 | -0.30% 95999 | | RU基差 | 基差 混合-RU | | | | 持仓量 | 175091 | 45890 | 54835 | 现值 | -190 | -1425 | 烟片-RU 2060 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2026年2月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净多，多增 偏多 6、预期：国内步入季节性偏空时点，建议保持偏空思路 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、现货价格抗跌 • 2、国内反内卷 • 3、海外逐步停割 • 利空 • 1、国内经济指标偏空 • 2、贸易摩擦 • 3、国内逐步开割 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增长不如预期、中美贸易摩擦 现货价格 24年全乳胶，不可用于交割，2月25日现货价格上涨 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差 ...

申万期货品种策略日报-天胶 | | nimx@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586042 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 期货 | | | | 价差 | | | | NR主力 | RU主力 | | BR主力 | | RU-NR | RU-BR | NR-BR | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 17030 | 13795 | 13160 | 现值 | 3235 | 3870 | 635 | | 货 | 前2日收盘价 | 16315 | 13180 | 12590 | 前值 | 3135 | 3725 | 590 | | 市 | 涨跌 | 715 | 615 | 570 | 涨跌 | 100 | 145 | 45 | | 场 | 涨跌幅 | 4.38% | 4.67% | 4.53% | | | 基差 | | | | 成交量 | 245962 | 66703 | 74457 | | RU基差 | 混合-RU | 烟片-RU | | | 持仓量 | 162068 | 47522 | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2026年2月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货16800，基差-230 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比增加，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净多，多减 偏多 6、预期：国内步入季节性偏空时点，建议保持偏空思路 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、现货价格抗跌 • 2、国内反内卷 • 3、海外逐步停割 • 利空 • 1、国内经济指标偏空 • 2、贸易摩擦 • 3、国内逐步开割 • 风险 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced widespread gains on February 24, with the main contract for silver rising over 12% and lithium carbonate increasing by over 10% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1704.50 points, up 56.21 points or 3.41% from the previous trading day [1] - The overall commodity index rose to 2349.89 points, an increase of 77.35 points or 3.40% [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals, particularly silver, showed strong performance post-Spring Festival, with silver surging by 12.84% and lithium carbonate recovering above 160,000 yuan per ton [2] - The rise in precious metals is attributed to increased safe-haven buying due to U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2] - Concerns about U.S. economic stagnation were heightened by a return of the core PCE year-on-year rate to 3% and a slowdown in GDP growth to 1.4% in Q4 [2] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate - The strong rise in lithium carbonate prices is supported by expectations of a tight supply-demand balance, despite concerns over a decline in downstream production [3] - Domestic lithium carbonate production is also expected to decrease, which offsets the negative impact of lower downstream production [3] - The overall sentiment remains bullish for lithium prices, although there are warnings about potential weakening fundamentals in Q2 [3] Group 4: Energy and Chemical Products - The energy and chemical sectors were active, driven by rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which pushed international oil prices to a six-month high [3] - SC crude oil rose by over 6%, while high-sulfur fuel oil increased by over 2% and 5% respectively [3] - The rubber sector also saw collective gains, with 20 rubber, butadiene rubber, and natural rubber all rising around 4% [3] Group 5: Declining Commodities - The main contract for polysilicon fell over 4%, primarily due to high inventory levels and price pressures from declining silicon wafer prices [4] - The supply of caustic soda also increased, leading to a decline of 3.37% in its main contract, as supply remained ample and demand was weak [5] - The operational rates for alumina production decreased, contributing to a lack of demand in the caustic soda market [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2026年2月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货16250，基差-65 中性 3、库存：上期所库存周环比增加，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净多，多增 偏多 6、预期：节后或高开，建议保持偏空思路 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、国内经济指标偏空 • 2、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增长不 ...

| | nimx@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586042 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货 价差 | | | | | | | | | | | RU主力 | NR主力 | BR主力 | | RU-NR | RU-BR | NR-BR | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 16315 | 13180 | 12590 | 现值 | 3135 | 3725 | 590 | | 货 | 前2日收盘价 | 16450 | 13370 | 12780 | 前值 | 3080 | 3670 | 590 | | 市 | 涨跌 | -135 | -190 | -190 | 涨跌 | 55 | 55 | 0 | | 场 | 涨跌幅 | -0.82% | -1.42% | -1.49% | | | 基差 | | | | 成交量 | 165470 | 47212 | 12590 | | RU基差 | 混合-RU | 烟片-RU | | | 持仓量 | 140235 | 47785 | 54867 | 现值 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the natural rubber market showed a slight decline. The domestic production areas have stopped tapping, and the northeastern part of Thailand has gradually stopped tapping, while the southern part is producing normally. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, China, has been continuously increasing, and the short - term supply elasticity has weakened, with the raw rubber prices remaining relatively firm. The demand side supports the stable operation of all - steel tire production. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, it is recommended to control risks and mainly reduce positions [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of RU, NR, and BR were 16450, 13370, and 12780 respectively, with price changes of - 125, - 75, and - 290, and percentage changes of - 0.75%, - 0.56%, and - 2.22% respectively. The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - BR were 3080, 3670, and 590 respectively, with changes of - 50, 165, and 215 [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of RU, NR, and BR were 180678, 46594, and 62549 respectively [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interests of RU, NR, and BR were 12780, 50704, and - 6788 respectively, with changes of - 290, 1663, and 10 [2] Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Prices**: The current prices of whole - milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming were 16150, 16250, and 16100 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.92%, - 0.91%, and - 0.92%. The prices of smoked sheets in Shandong and Shanghai remained unchanged at 18700. The prices of mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan were 15390 and 16150 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.88% and - 0.62% [2] - **Thailand Spot Prices**: The current prices of Thai smoked sheets, cup rubber, and latex were 65.3, 54.87, and 62 respectively, with percentage changes of 2.19%, 0.00%, and 1.64% [2]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2026年2月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货16400，基差-50 中性 3、库存：上期所库存周环比增加，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净多，多增 偏多 6、预期：市场情绪降温，节前或区间波动 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、国内经济指标偏空 • 2、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增长不 ...