Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Bullish with an upward - trending oscillation [1] - Red Dates: Oscillating [4] - Rubber: Oscillating, including natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, and synthetic rubber [5] 2. Core Views - Sugar: The market anticipates a favorable output in the global 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, causing overseas sugar prices to decline. However, there are signs of the raw sugar futures stabilizing. Domestic sugar market has limited impact on Zhengzhou sugar futures, and attention should be paid to the subsequent performance of the external market [1]. - Red Dates: After continuous price drops, the futures have signs of stabilizing and rebounding. The downward space is limited, and future focus should be on capital trends and jujube quality [4]. - Rubber: Natural rubber prices have slightly stabilized, but the raw material price support and the news of state - reserve sales have opposite impacts on the market, and short - term range trading is recommended. Synthetic rubber trading atmosphere has weakened, and it may maintain a narrow - range oscillation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - **Market Review**: SR601 closed at 5497 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.97%, and SR605 closed at 5464 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.98% [1]. - **Important Information**: ICE raw sugar closed at 16.12 cents/pound with a 0.25% daily decrease; Brazil's 2026/27 sugar output is expected to reach 42.1 million tons, a 5.7% increase; Thailand's 2025/26 output is expected to be 11.4 million tons; India's 2025/26 output is expected to be 32.3 million tons; the global sugar supply in 2025/26 is expected to have a surplus of 2.77 million tons [1]. - **Market Logic**: Overseas sugar prices are bottom - seeking, but there are signs of stabilization. Domestic sugar market has limited impact on Zhengzhou sugar futures [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in SR601 and pay attention to whether it can stay above 5500 yuan/ton [1]. Red Dates - **Market Review**: CJ601 closed at 10758 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.05%, and CJ605 closed at 10820 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.28% [4]. - **Important Information**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 74 tons to 9247 tons, a 0.79% decrease [4]. - **Market Logic**: After continuous decline, the futures may stabilize and rebound, and the downward space is limited [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in CJ601 and wait and see [4]. Rubber - **Market Review**: RU2601 closed at 15620 yuan/ton with a 0.61% daily increase; NR2511 closed at 12465 yuan/ton with a 0.56% daily increase; BR2511 closed at 11520 yuan/ton with a 0.79% daily increase [5]. - **Important Information**: Thailand's raw material prices are provided; tire production capacity utilization rates and inventory data in Qingdao are given; prices of various rubber products are reported [5]. - **Market Logic**: Natural rubber prices are slightly stable, affected by raw material prices and state - reserve sales news; synthetic rubber trading atmosphere is weakening, and it may oscillate narrowly [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the activity ranges of RU2601 (15500 - 16370), NR (12200 - 12800), and BR (11300 - 12000) [5].

Report Title - Full Variety Spread Daily Report [4] Report Date - September 25, 2025 [3] Data Sources - Wind, Mysteel, GF Futures Research Institute [5] Key Points by Commodity Category Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF511)**: Spot price 5742, futures price 5758, basis 16, basis rate 0.28%, historical quantile 59.50% [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: Spot price 5916, futures price 6000, basis 84, basis rate 1.42%, historical quantile 41.30% [1] - **Rebar (RB2601)**: Spot price 3280, futures price 3164, basis 116, basis rate 3.67%, historical quantile 54.20% [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: Spot price 3400, futures price 3357, basis 43, basis rate 1.28%, historical quantile 36.80% [1] - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: Spot price 850, futures price 804, basis 47, basis rate 5.82%, historical quantile 39.60% [1] - **Coke (J2601)**: Spot price 1603, futures price 1730, basis -127, basis rate -7.37%, historical quantile 4.57% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: Spot price 1185, futures price 1225, basis -40, basis rate -3.23%, historical quantile 17.20% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2511)**: Spot price 80045, futures price 79960, basis 85, basis rate 0.11%, historical quantile 54.16% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2511)**: Spot price 20680, futures price 20705, basis -25, basis rate -0.12%, historical quantile 48.75% [1] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: Spot price 3008, futures price 2907, basis 101, basis rate 3.49%, historical quantile 56.38% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2511)**: Spot price 21750, futures price 21860, basis -110, basis rate -0.90%, historical quantile 29.37% [1] - **Tin (SN2510)**: Spot price 271400, futures price 271650, basis -250, basis rate -0.09%, historical quantile 40.20% [1] - **Nickel (NI251)**: Spot price 121600, futures price 121450, basis 150, basis rate 0.12%, historical quantile 65.20% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2511)**: Spot price 13270, futures price 12895, basis 375, basis rate 2.91%, historical quantile 75.53% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2511)**: Spot price 73850, futures price 72880, basis 970, basis rate 1.3%, historical quantile 68.72% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SI2511)**: Spot price 9500, futures price 9020, basis 480, basis rate 5.32%, historical quantile 34.75% [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2512)**: Spot price 839.9, futures price 846.5, basis -6.6, basis rate -0.78%, historical quantile 0.20% [1] - **Silver (AG2512)**: Spot price 10243.0, futures price 10317.0, basis -74.0, basis rate -0.12%, historical quantile 0.40% [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: Spot price 2870, futures price 2930.0, basis -60.0, basis rate -2.05%, historical quantile 27.80% [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: Spot price 8230, futures price 8100.0, basis 130.0, basis rate 1.60%, historical quantile 24.30% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: Spot price 9030, futures price 9126.0, basis -96.0, basis rate -1.05%, historical quantile 4.90% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: Spot price 2490, futures price 2395.0, basis 95.0, basis rate 3.97%, historical quantile 63.30% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (OI601)**: Spot price 10120, futures price 9921.0, basis 199.0, basis rate 2.01%, historical quantile 69.60% [1] - **Corn (C2511)**: Spot price 2300, futures price 2164.0, basis 136.0, basis rate 6.28%, historical quantile 94.90% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2511)**: Spot price 2600, futures price 2469.0, basis 131.0, basis rate 5.31%, historical quantile 66.00% [1] - **Live Hogs (H251)**: Spot price 12650, futures price 12730.0, basis -80.0, basis rate -0.63%, historical quantile 39.60% [1] - **Eggs (JD2511)**: Spot price 3530, futures price 3056.0, basis 474.0, basis rate 15.51%, historical quantile 66.20% [1] - **Cotton (CF601)**: Spot price 15024, futures price 13555.0, basis 1469.0, basis rate 10.84%, historical quantile 93.20% [1] - **Sugar (SR601)**: Spot price 5890, futures price 5497.0, basis 393.0, basis rate 7.15%, historical quantile 70.40% [1] - **Apples (AP601)**: Spot price 8600, futures price 8336.0, basis 264.0, basis rate 3.17%, historical quantile 31.10% [1] - **Jujubes (CJ601)**: Spot price 9500, futures price 10785.0, basis -1285.0, basis rate -11.91%, historical quantile 37.60% [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX511)**: Spot price 6652.2, futures price 6602.0, basis 50.2, basis rate 0.76%, historical quantile 37.90% [1] - **PTA (TA601)**: Spot price 4560.0, futures price 4626.0, basis -66.0, basis rate -1.43%, historical quantile 28.60% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: Spot price 4305.0, futures price 4234.0, basis 71.0, basis rate 1.68%, historical quantile 83.80% [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF511)**: Spot price 6415.0, futures price 6296.0, basis 119.0, basis rate 1.89%, historical quantile 72.70% [1] - **Styrene (EB2511)**: Spot price 6925.0, futures price 6928.0, basis -3.0, basis rate -0.04%, historical quantile 25.20% [1] - **Methanol (MA601)**: Spot price 2255.0, futures price 2351.0, basis -96.0, basis rate -4.08%, historical quantile 14.60% [1] - **Urea (UR601)**: Spot price 1610.0, futures price 1673.0, basis -63.0, basis rate -3.77%, historical quantile 2.60% [1] - **LLDPE (L2601)**: Spot price 7150.0, futures price 7142.0, basis 8.0, basis rate 0.11%, historical quantile 24.00% [1] - **PP (PP2601)**: Spot price 6775.0, futures price 6877.0, basis -102.0, basis rate -1.48%, historical quantile 5.60% [1] - **PVC (V2601)**: Spot price 4740.0, futures price 4919.0, basis -179.0, basis rate -3.64%, historical quantile 32.00% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: Spot price 2500.0, futures price 2548.0, basis -48.0, basis rate -1.88%, historical quantile 39.60% [1] - **LPG (PG2511)**: Spot price 4498.0, futures price 4245.0, basis 253.0, basis rate 5.96%, historical quantile 47.00% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2511)**: Spot price 3500.0, futures price 3392.0, basis 108.0, basis rate 3.18%, historical quantile 73.20% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2511)**: Spot price 11700.0, futures price 11520.0, basis 180.0, basis rate 1.56%, historical quantile 47.70% [1] - **Glass (FG601)**: Spot price 1068.0, futures price 1237.0, basis -169.0, basis rate -15.82%, historical quantile 8.57% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: Spot price 1217.0, futures price 1307.0, basis -90.0, basis rate -7.40%, historical quantile 10.04% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: Spot price 14800.0, futures price 15620.0, basis -820.0, basis rate -5.54%, historical quantile 44.90% [1] Financial Futures - **IF2512.CFE**: Spot price 4519.8, futures price 4483.8, basis -36.0, basis rate -0.80%, historical quantile 9.10% [1] - **IH2512.CFE**: Spot price 2919.5, futures price 2925.0, basis 5.5, basis rate 0.19%, historical quantile 85.80% [1] - **IC2512.CFE**: Spot price 7323.7, futures price 7157.0, basis -166.7, basis rate -2.33%, historical quantile 0.10% [1] - **IM2512.CFE**: Spot price 7534.2, futures price 7303.2, basis -231.0, basis rate -3.16%, historical quantile 1.20% [1] - **2 - Year Treasury Bond (TS2512)**: Spot price 99.91, futures price 102.32, basis -0.01, basis rate -0.01%, historical quantile 24.80% [1] - **5 - Year Treasury Bond (TF2512)**: Spot price 99.22, futures price 105.54, basis -0.04, basis rate -0.04%, historical quantile 21.20% [1] - **10 - Year Treasury Bond (T2512)**: Spot price 99.76, futures price 107.62, basis 0.06, basis rate 0.05%, historical quantile 22.10% [1] - **30 - Year Treasury Bond (TL2512)**: Spot price 129.13, futures price 113.99, basis 0.65, basis rate 0.57%, historical quantile 88.10% [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the natural rubber industry [1][4][6] 2. Core View - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot market is strong, and domestic inventories are starting to decrease. The tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with increasing supply, strong spot prices, decreasing domestic inventories, and high tire operating rates. The basis is -820, which is bearish. The inventory shows a mixed trend, the market is below the 20 - day line, the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, and the expectation is to buy on dips [4] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [4][6] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) rose on September 24th, and the US dollar quote in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is available. The spot price is resistant to decline [8][6] - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory has recently decreased, and the Qingdao area inventory has decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year. The inventory in Qingdao area has changed slightly recently [14][17][4] - **Downstream Consumption**: Downstream consumption is high, with seasonal rebounds in automobile production and sales and a record high in tire production. Tire industry exports are also rebounding [23][26][29] 3.3 Basis - The basis strengthened on September 24th, with the spot price at 14800 and the basis at - 820, which is bearish [4][35] 3.4 Multi - empty Factors - **Likely to Rise**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Likely to Fall**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [4][9] Report's Core View - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to decrease, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Supply of natural rubber is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventory is decreasing, and tire operating rates are high The market has support below, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4] 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, while downstream consumption is high [4][6] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 full latex (non - deliverable) fell on September 19, and the spot price is resistant to decline [8][6] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased recently, and Qingdao area inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year [14][4] - **Import**: Import volume has rebounded [20] - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are rebounding [23][29][32] 3. Multi - empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Increasing supply, negative domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6] 4. Basis - The spot price is 14,700, and the basis is - 835, showing a bearish signal The basis weakened on September 19 [4][35]

Report Date - The report is dated September 19, 2025 [3] Core Data Summary Ferrous Metals - Silicon iron (SF511) has a spot price of 5728, a futures price of 5756, a basis of -28, a basis rate of -0.49%, and a historical quantile of 55.60% [1] - Silicon manganese (SM601) has a spot price of 6000, a futures price of 5970, a basis of 30, a basis rate of 0.50%, and a historical quantile of 30.70% [1] - Rebar (RB2601) has a spot price of 3240, a futures price of 3147, a basis of 93, a basis rate of 2.96%, and a historical quantile of 47.30% [1] - Hot - rolled coil (HC2601) has a spot price of 3400, a futures price of 3354, a basis of 46, a basis rate of 1.37%, and a historical quantile of 38.30% [1] - Iron ore (12601) has a spot price of 841, a futures price of 800, a basis of 41, a basis rate of 5.07%, and a historical quantile of 34.80% [1] - Coke (J2601) has a spot price of 1635, a futures price of 1709, a basis of -74, a basis rate of -4.33%, and a historical quantile of 24.76% [1] - Coking coal (JM2601) has a spot price of 1140, a futures price of 1204, a basis of -64, a basis rate of -5.28%, and a historical quantile of 13.70% [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2510) has a spot price of 79990, a futures price of 79620, a basis of 370, a basis rate of 0.46%, and a historical quantile of 80.62% [1] - Aluminum (AL2511) has a spot price of 20780, a futures price of 20785, a basis of -5, a basis rate of -0.02%, and a historical quantile of 56.25% [1] - Alumina (AO2601) has a spot price of 3046, a futures price of 2931, a basis of 115, a basis rate of 3.92%, and a historical quantile of 59.47% [1] - Zinc (ZN2510) has a spot price of 21940, a futures price of 22035, a basis of -95, a basis rate of -0.43%, and a historical quantile of 32.50% [1] - Tin (SN2510) has a spot price of 270200, a futures price of 269100, a basis of 1100, a basis rate of 0.41%, and a historical quantile of 78.95% [1] - Nickel (NI2510) has a spot price of 121900, a futures price of 120940, a basis of 960, a basis rate of 0.79%, and a historical quantile of 90.00% [1] - Stainless steel (SS2511) has a spot price of 13270, a futures price of 12875, a basis of 395, a basis rate of 3.07%, and a historical quantile of 77.46% [1] - Lithium carbonate (LC2511) has a spot price of 73450, a futures price of 72880, a basis of 570, a basis rate of 0.78%, and a historical quantile of 62.55% [1] - Industrial silicon (212511) has a spot price of 9350, a futures price of 8905, a basis of 445, a basis rate of 5.00%, and a historical quantile of 32.79% [1] Precious Metals - Gold (AU2512) has a spot price of 824.5, a futures price of 824.1, a basis of 0.4, a basis rate of 0.05%, and a historical quantile of 96.60% [1] - Silver (AG2512) has a spot price of 9811.0, a futures price of 9835.0, a basis of -24.0, a basis rate of -0.24%, and a historical quantile of 36.40% [1] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal (M2601) has a spot price of 2920, a futures price of 2993.0, a basis of -73.0, a basis rate of -2.44%, and a historical quantile of 25.10% [1] - Soybean oil (Y2601) has a spot price of 8400, a futures price of 8284.0, a basis of 116.0, a basis rate of 1.40%, and a historical quantile of 21.10% [1] - Palm oil (P2601) has a spot price of 9210, a futures price of 9304.0, a basis of -94.0, a basis rate of -1.01%, and a historical quantile of 4.80% [1] - Rapeseed meal (RM601) has a spot price of 2560, a futures price of 2470.0, a basis of 90.0, a basis rate of 3.64%, and a historical quantile of 62.50% [1] - Rapeseed oil (Ol601) has a spot price of 10210, a futures price of 9984.0, a basis of 226.0, a basis rate of 2.26%, and a historical quantile of 73.40% [1] - Corn (C2511) has a spot price of 2280, a futures price of 2177.0, a basis of 103.0, a basis rate of 4.73%, and a historical quantile of 89.90% [1] - Corn starch (CS2511) has a spot price of 2600, a futures price of 2471.0, a basis of 129.0, a basis rate of 5.22%, and a historical quantile of 64.90% [1] - Live pigs (H251) has a spot price of 12900, a futures price of 12830.0, a basis of 70.0, a basis rate of 0.55%, and a historical quantile of 43.10% [1] - Eggs (JD2511) has a spot price of 3600, a futures price of 3132.0, a basis of 468.0 [1] - Cotton (CF601) has a spot price of 15249, a futures price of 13765.0, a basis of 1484.0, a basis rate of 10.78%, and a historical quantile of 93.60% [1] - Sugar (SR601) has a spot price of 5960, a futures price of 5474.0, a basis of 486.0, a basis rate of 8.88%, and a historical quantile of 85.80% [1] - Apples (AP601) has a spot price of 8600, a futures price of 8281.0, a basis of 319.0, a basis rate of 3.85%, and a historical quantile of 33.60% [1] - Jujubes (CJ601) has a spot price of 8300, a futures price of 10620.0, a basis of -2320.0, a basis rate of -21.85%, and a historical quantile of 10.40% [1] Energy and Chemicals - Para - xylene (PX511) has a spot price of 6775.8, a futures price of 6684.0, a basis of 91.8, a basis rate of 1.37%, and a historical quantile of 50.60% [1] - PTA (TA601) has a spot price of 4590.0, a futures price of 4666.0, a basis of -76.0, a basis rate of -1.6%, and a historical quantile of 24.30% [1] - Ethylene glycol (EG2601) has a spot price of 4345.0, a futures price of 4268.0, a basis of 77.0, a basis rate of 1.80%, and a historical quantile of 86.10% [1] - Polyester staple fiber (PF511) has a spot price of 6465.0, a futures price of 6344.0, a basis of 121.0, a basis rate of 1.91%, and a historical quantile of 73.30% [1] - Styrene (EB2511) has a spot price of 7100.0, a futures price of 7062.0, a basis of 38.0, a basis rate of 0.54%, and a historical quantile of 35.10% [1] - Methanol (MA601) has a spot price of 2247.5, a futures price of 2346.0, a basis of -98.5, a basis rate of -4.20%, and a historical quantile of 13.60% [1] - Urea (UR601) has a spot price of 1640.0, a futures price of 1670.0, a basis of -30.0, a basis rate of -1.80%, and a historical quantile of 6.40% [1] - LLDPE (L2601) has a spot price of 7225.0, a futures price of 7188.0, a basis of 37.0, a basis rate of 0.51%, and a historical quantile of 33.10% [1] - PP (PP2601) has a spot price of 6860.0, a futures price of 6926.0, a basis of -66.0, a basis rate of -0.95%, and a historical quantile of 9.70% [1] - PVC (V2601) has a spot price of 4770.0, a futures price of 4923.0, a basis of -153.0, a basis rate of -3.11%, and a historical quantile of 38.30% [1] - Caustic soda (SH601) has a spot price of 2500.0, a futures price of 2580.0, a basis of -80.0, a basis rate of -3.10%, and a historical quantile of 34.80% [1] - LPG (PG2511) has a spot price of 4498.0, a futures price of 4460.0, a basis of 38.0, a basis rate of 0.85%, and a historical quantile of 33.40% [1] - Asphalt (BU2511) has a spot price of 3520.0, a futures price of 3427.0, a basis of 93.0, a basis rate of 2.71%, and a historical quantile of 70.70% [1] - Butadiene rubber (BR2511) has a spot price of 11700.0, a futures price of 11415.0, a basis of 285.0, a basis rate of 2.50%, and a historical quantile of 59.80% [1] - Glass (FG601) has a spot price of 1080.0, a futures price of 1208.0, a basis of -128.0, a basis rate of -11.85%, and a historical quantile of 21.75% [1] - Soda ash (SA601) has a spot price of 1216.0, a futures price of 1306.0, a basis of -90.0, a basis rate of -7.40%, and a historical quantile of 10.04% [1] - Natural rubber (RU2601) has a spot price of 14800.0, a futures price of 15570.0, a basis of -770.0, a basis rate of -5.20%, and a historical quantile of 48.23% [1] Financial Futures - IF2509.CFF has a spot price of 4498.1, a futures price of 4487.2, a basis of -10.9, a basis rate of -0.24%, and a historical quantile of 35.00% [1] - IH2509.CFE has a spot price of 2912.8, a futures price of 2910.8, a basis of -2.0, a basis rate of -0.07%, and a historical quantile of 46.40% [1] - IC2509.CFE has a spot price of 7199.9, a futures price of 7171.6, a basis of -28.3, a basis rate of -0.39%, and a historical quantile of 42.80% [1] - IM2509.CFE has a spot price of 7476.4, a futures price of 7454.8, a basis of -21.6, a basis rate of -0.29%, and a historical quantile of 57.50% [1] - 2 - year bond (TS2512) has a spot price of 99.97, a futures price of 102.41, a basis of -0.03, a basis rate of -0.03%, and a historical quantile of 16.30% [1] - 5 - year bond (TF2512) has a spot price of 99.46, a futures price of 105.82, a basis of -0.05, a basis rate of -0.05%, and a historical quantile of 20.10% [1] - 10 - year bond (T2512) has a spot price of 100.13, a futures price of 108.07, a basis of 0.02, a basis rate of 0.02%, and a historical quantile of 17.70% [1] - 30 - year bond (TL2512) has a spot price of 127.09, a futures price of 115.68, a basis of 0.45, a basis rate of 0.39%, and a historical quantile of 66.00% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Report Core View - The report presents the latest price data and related indicators for various commodities and financial products on September 17, 2025, including futures prices, spot prices, basis, basis rates, and historical quantiles. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF51)**: The futures price is 78, the spot price of 72 silicon iron qualified blocks in Inner Mongolia - Tianjin warehouse receipts is 5778, with a basis of 66.30% and a basis rate of 1.37% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: The futures price is 5944, the spot price of 6517 silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia - Hubei warehouse receipts is 6000, with a basis rate of 0.94% [1]. - **Rebar (RB2601)**: The futures price is 3270, the spot price of HRB400 20mm in Shanghai is 3166, with a basis of 28 and a basis rate of 29.20% [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: Not fully detailed in the given part. - **Iron Ore (12601)**: The futures price is 846, with a daily increase of 5.28% and a historical quantile of 36.40%. The spot price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder at Rizhao Port is 804, with a change of - 5.75% [1]. - **Coke (J2601)**: The futures price has a change of 13.24%, and the spot price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is not fully presented [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: The futures price is 1150, with a change of - 91. The spot price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi is 1241, with a change of 10.80% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2510)**: The futures price is 81120, the spot price of SMM electrolytic copper average is 80880, with a historical quantile of 70.41% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2510)**: The futures price is 20975, the spot price of SMM A00 aluminum average is 20950, with a change of - 25 (- 0.12%) and a historical quantile of 48.75% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2601)**: The futures price is 2979, the spot price of SMM alumina index average is 3056, with a change of 2.58% and a historical quantile of 49.77% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2510)**: The futures price is 22160, the spot price of SMM 1 zinc ingot average is 22255, with a change of - 65 (- 0.43%) and a historical quantile of 32.29% [1]. - **Tin (SN2510)**: The futures price is 272730, the spot price of SMM 1 tin average is 272400, with a change of - 330 (- 0.12%) and a historical quantile of 37.70% [1]. - **Nickel (NI2510)**: The futures price is 122800, the spot price of SMM 1 imported nickel average is 122610, with a change of 190 (0.15%) and a historical quantile of 67.50% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2511)**: The futures price is 13370, the spot price of 304/2B stainless steel at Wuxi Hongwang is 12970, with a change of 400 (3.08%) and a historical quantile of 78.32% [1]. Chemicals and Energy - **Carbonate Lithium (LC2511)**: The futures price is 72850, the spot price of SMM battery - grade carbonate lithium average is 73180, with a change of - 330 (- 0.45%) and a historical quantile of 49.11% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SI2511)**: The futures price has a change of 4.32%, and the spot price of SMM industrial silicon average is not fully detailed [1]. - **PTA (TA601)**: The futures price is 4688, the spot price of PTA in the East China market is 4600, with a change of - 88 (- 1.88%) and a historical quantile of 20.10% [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: The futures price is 4355, the spot price of ethylene glycol in the East China market is 4272, with a change of 83 (1.94%) and a historical quantile of 87.40% [1]. - **Polypropylene (PP2601)**: The futures price is 6970, the spot price of polypropylene in Zhejiang is 6870, with a change of 5.80% and a historical quantile of 19.10% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: The futures price is 3041, the spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang is 2970, with a basis of - 71 and a historical quantile of 25.10% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (V2601)**: The futures price is 8418, the spot price of soybean oil in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang is 8560, with a basis of 142 and a basis rate of 1.69%, and a historical quantile of 27.30% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: The futures price is 9460, the spot price of palm oil at Huangpu Port is 9482, with a change of - 22 (- 0.23%) and a historical quantile of 13.70% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: The futures price is 2518, the spot price of rapeseed meal in Guangdong Zhanjiang is 2600, with a basis of 82 and a historical quantile of 3.26% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (Ol601)**: The futures price is 10053, the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu Nantong is 10220, with a basis of 167 and a basis rate of 1.66%, and a historical quantile of 62.60% [1]. - **Corn (C2511)**: The futures price is 2310, the spot price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2166, with a basis of 144 and a basis rate of 6.65%, and a historical quantile of 96.10% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2511)**: The futures price is 2443, the spot price of corn starch in Jilin Changchun is 2600, with a basis of 157 and a basis rate of 6.43%, and a historical quantile of 75.40% [1]. - **Live Hogs (LH251)**: The futures price is 13160, the spot price of live hogs in Henan is 13300, with a basis of 140 and a basis rate of 1.06%, and a historical quantile of 43.80% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2511)**: The futures price is 3113, the spot price of eggs in Hebei Shijiazhuang is 557, with a change of 17.89% and a historical quantile of 67.90% [1]. - **Cotton (CF601)**: The futures price is 13895, the spot price of cotton in Xinjiang is 15214, with a basis of 1319 and a basis rate of 9.49%, and a historical quantile of 88.00% [1]. - **Sugar (SR601)**: The futures price is 5547, the spot price of sugar at Liuzhou Station is 5970, with a basis of 423 and a basis rate of 7.63%, and a historical quantile of 76.70% [1]. - **Apples (AP601)**: The futures price is 8600, the spot price of apples is 8269, with a change of 4.00% and a historical quantile of 34.00% [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: The futures price is 10805, the spot price of red dates in Hebei is 8300, with a change of - 2318% and a historical quantile of 9.00% [1]. Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: - **IF2509.CFE**: The futures price is 4516.8, the spot price is 4523.3, with a basis of - 6.5, a basis rate of - 0.14%, and a historical quantile of 44.90% [1]. - **IH2509.CFE**: The futures price is 2950.6, the spot price is 2947.8, with a basis of 2.8, a basis rate of 0.09%, and a historical quantile of 73.20% [1]. - **IC2509.CFE**: The futures price is 7165.2, the spot price is 7191.0, with a basis of - 25.8, a basis rate of - 0.36%, and a historical quantile of 45.80% [1]. - **IM2509.CFE**: The futures price is 7483.6, the spot price is 7462.0, with a basis of - 21.6, a basis rate of - 0.20%, and a historical quantile of 92.00% [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **2 - year Treasury Bond (TS2512)**: The futures price is 102.41, with a conversion factor of 0.9765, a basis of - 0.04, a basis rate of - 0.04%, and a historical quantile of 15.70% [1]. - **5 - year Treasury Bond (TF2512)**: The futures price is 105.78, with a conversion factor of 0.9405, a basis of 0.00, a basis rate of 0.00%, and a historical quantile of 26.50% [1]. - **10 - year Treasury Bond (T2512)**: The futures price is 108.01, with a conversion factor of 0.9757, a basis of 0.29, a basis rate of 0.27%, and a historical quantile of 52.60% [1]. - **30 - year Treasury Bond (TL2512)**: The futures price is 130.76, with a conversion factor of 1.1271, a basis of 0.56, a basis rate of 0.48%, and a historical quantile of 80.10% [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [4][9] Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot market is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market has support at the bottom, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory Daily Hints - The fundamental situation of natural rubber is that supply is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rates are at a high level, rated as neutral. The basis is -995 with a spot price of 15,000, rated as bearish. Exchange inventories have decreased both week - on - week and year - on - year, while Qingdao inventories have decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year, rated as neutral. The price is above the 20 - day line with the 20 - day line trending upwards, rated as bullish. The main positions are net short with short positions decreasing, rated as bearish. The market has support at the bottom, and the strategy is to buy on dips [4] Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: The downstream consumption is high, and the spot price is resistant to decline, which are positive factors. However, the supply is increasing, and domestic economic indicators are bearish, which are negative factors [6] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories have been continuously decreasing recently, and Qingdao area inventories have shown small changes [14][17] - **Import**: The import volume has rebounded [20] - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, tire production reached a new high in the same period but decreased month - on - month, and the tire industry's exports have rebounded [23][26][29][32] Basis - The basis weakened on September 15 [35] Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on September 15 [8] Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Positive Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Negative Factors**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年9月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14950，基差-870 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比减少，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比减少，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线走平，价格20日线下运行 偏空 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空增 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，短多交易 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 3、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [4][9] Core Viewpoint - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is relatively strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and short - long trading is recommended [4] Summary by Directory Daily Prompt - The fundamental situation of natural rubber is that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rate is high, with a neutral outlook. The basis is - 930 with the spot price at 15050, showing a bearish signal. Exchange inventories and Qingdao area inventories have recent small changes. The import volume is rising. Automobile production and sales are seasonally falling, tire production is at a record high for the same period but falling month - on - month, and tire industry exports are rising. The basis weakened on September 10th [4][14][17][20][23][26][29][32][35] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [4][6] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) fell on September 10th. The US dollar - quoted price in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also involved [8][11] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories and Qingdao area inventories have recent small changes. The exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao area inventory decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year [4][14][17] - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales are seasonally falling, tire production is at a record high for the same period but falling month - on - month, and tire industry exports are rising [23][26][29][32] Basis - The basis on September 10th was - 930 with the spot price at 15050, and it weakened on September 10th [4][35] Multi - Empty Factors - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Increasing supply and bearish domestic economic indicators [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and historical quantiles of various commodities on September 11, 2025, including ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals, as well as stock index futures and bond futures [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF51)**: Spot price is 5688, futures price is 5628, basis is 60, basis rate is 1.07%, and historical quantile is 64.00% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: Spot price is 5950, futures price is 5854, basis is 96, basis rate is 1.64%, and historical quantile is 43.20% [1]. - **Rebar (RB2601)**: Spot price is 3230, futures price is 3109, basis is 121, basis rate is 3.89%, and historical quantile is 55.70% [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: Spot price is 3380, futures price is 3342, basis is 38, basis rate is 1.14%, and historical quantile is 34.60% [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: Spot price is 844, futures price is 805, basis is 39, basis rate is 4.82%, and historical quantile is 33.70% [1]. - **Coke (J2601)**: Spot price is 1603, futures price is 1581, basis is 22, basis rate is 1.4%, and historical quantile is 46.21% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: Spot price is 1117, futures price is 1114, basis is 3, basis rate is 0.27%, and historical quantile is 23.40% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2510)**: Spot price is 79790, futures price is 79745, basis is 45, basis rate is 0.06%, and historical quantile is 36.87% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2510)**: Spot price is 20790, futures price is 20750, basis is 40, basis rate is 0.19%, and historical quantile is 40.41% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2601)**: Spot price is 3090, futures price is 2933, basis is 157, basis rate is 5.36%, and historical quantile is 69.60% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2510)**: Spot price is 22215, futures price is 22020, basis is 195, basis rate is 0.88%, and historical quantile is 12.50% [1]. - **Tin (SN2510)**: Spot price is 270430, futures price is 270100, basis is 330, basis rate is 0.12%, and historical quantile is 37.70% [1]. - **Nickel (NI2510)**: Spot price is 120850, futures price is 120750, basis is 100, basis rate is 0.08%, and historical quantile is 50.00% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2511)**: Spot price is 13320, futures price is 12915, basis is 405, basis rate is 3.14%, and historical quantile is 79.82% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (212511)**: Spot price is 9100, futures price is 8665, basis is 435, basis rate is 5.02%, and historical quantile is 31.37% [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2510)**: Spot price is 833.4, futures price is 829.7, basis is 3.7, basis rate is 0.44%, and historical quantile is 14.20% [1]. - **Silver (AG2510)**: Spot price is 9796.0, futures price is 9784.0, basis is 12.0, basis rate is 0.12%, and historical quantile is 61.10% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: Spot price is 2980, futures price is 3066.0, basis is - 86.0, basis rate is 2.11%, and historical quantile is 22.60% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: Spot price is 8430, futures price is 8256.0, basis is 174.0, basis rate is 31.30%, and historical quantile is 3.04% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: Spot price is 9250, futures price is 9244.0, basis is 6.0, basis rate is 0.06%, and historical quantile is 20.60% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: Spot price is 2533.0, futures price is 2610, basis is - 77.0, basis rate is 3.04%, and historical quantile is 60.90% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (Ol601)**: Spot price is 10030, futures price is 9770.0, basis is 260.0, basis rate is 2.66%, and historical quantile is 75.00% [1]. - **Corn (C2511)**: Spot price is 2310, futures price is 2197.0, basis is 113.0, basis rate is 5.14%, and historical quantile is 92.40% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2511)**: Spot price is 2600, futures price is 2488.0, basis is 112.0, basis rate is 4.50%, and historical quantile is 56.30% [1]. - **Live Pigs (H251)**: Spot price is 13550, futures price is 13315.0, basis is 235.0, basis rate is 1.76%, and historical quantile is 46.40% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2511)**: Spot price is 3330, futures price is 3020.0, basis is 310.0, basis rate is 10.26%, and historical quantile is 56.40% [1]. - **Cotton (CF601)**: Spot price is 15210, futures price is 13855.0, basis is 1355.0, basis rate is 9.78%, and historical quantile is 89.20% [1]. - **Sugar (SR601)**: Spot price is 5970, futures price is 5535.0, basis is 435.0, basis rate is 7.86%, and historical quantile is 78.00% [1]. - **Apples (AP601)**: Spot price is 8600, futures price is 8130.0, basis is 470.0, basis rate is 5.78%, and historical quantile is 38.70% [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: Spot price is 8300, futures price is 11035.0, basis is - 2735.0, basis rate is - 24.78%, and historical quantile is 7.40% [1]. Energy Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX511)**: Spot price is 6863.7, futures price is 6770.0, basis is 93.7, basis rate is 1.38%, and historical quantile is 51.20% [1]. - **PTA (TA601)**: Spot price is 4698.0, futures price is 4630.0, basis is 68.0, basis rate is 2.69%, and historical quantile is 27.50% [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: Spot price is 4435.0, futures price is 4319.0, basis is 116.0, basis rate is 91.60% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF511)**: Spot price is 6470.0, futures price is 6364.0, basis is 106.0, basis rate is 1.67%, and historical quantile is 70.30% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2510)**: Spot price is 7110.0, futures price is 7065.0, basis is 45.0, basis rate is 0.64%, and historical quantile is 36.80% [1]. - **Methanol (MA601)**: Spot price is 2407.0, futures price is 2290.0, basis is 117.0, basis rate is 4.86%, and historical quantile is 9.40% [1]. - **Urea (UR601)**: Spot price is 1670.0, futures price is 1669.0, basis is 1.0, basis rate is 0.06%, and historical quantile is 13.10% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2601)**: Spot price is 7226.0, futures price is 7220.0, basis is 6.0, basis rate is 0.08%, and historical quantile is 19.90% [1]. - **PP (PP2601)**: Spot price is 6948.0, futures price is 6900.0, basis is 48.0, basis rate is 4.26%, and historical quantile is 12.80% [1]. - **PVC (V2601)**: Spot price is 4857.0, futures price is 4650.0, basis is 207.0, basis rate is 5.54%, and historical quantile is 26.50% [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: Spot price is 2718.8, futures price is 2576.0, basis is 142.8, basis rate is 8.82%, and historical quantile is 73.00% [1]. - **LPG (PG2510)**: Spot price is 4498.0, futures price is 4462.0, basis is 36.0, basis rate is 0.81%, and historical quantile is 33.00% [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2511)**: Spot price is 3540.0, futures price is 3450.0, basis is 90.0, basis rate is 2.61%, and historical quantile is 69.80% [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2510)**: Spot price is 11900.0, futures price is 11720.0, basis is 180.0, basis rate is 1.54%, and historical quantile is 48.60% [1]. - **Glass (FG601)**: Spot price is 1281.0, futures price is 1186.0, basis is 95.0, basis rate is 8.01%, and historical quantile is 34.87% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: Spot price is 1281.0, futures price is 1186.0, basis is 95.0, basis rate is 8.01%, and historical quantile is 34.09% [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: Spot price is 15980.0, futures price is 15050.0, basis is 930.0, basis rate is 6.18%, and historical quantile is 34.09% [1]. Stock Index Futures and Bond Futures - **IF2509.CFF**: Spot price is 4445.4, futures price is 4432.4, basis is - 13.0, basis rate is 0.29%, and historical quantile is 47.70% [1]. - **IH2509.CFE**: Spot price is 2939.6, futures price is 2937.8, basis is - 1.8, basis rate is 0.06%, and historical quantile is 9.00% [1]. - **IC2509.CFE**: Spot price is 6932.1, futures price is 6863.4, basis is - 68.7, basis rate is 1.00%, and historical quantile is 18.70% [1]. - **IM2509.CFE**: Spot price is 7230.2, futures price is 7151.0, basis is - 79.2, basis rate is 1.11%, and historical quantile is 20.30% [1]. - **2 - Year Treasury Bond (TS2512)**: Spot price is 102.35, futures price is 99.92, basis is 0.02, basis rate is 0.02%, and historical quantile is 28.60% [1]. - **5 - Year Treasury Bond (TF2512)**: Spot price is 107.51, futures price is 105.45, basis is 0.42, basis rate is 0.39%, and historical quantile is 64.30% [1]. - **10 - Year Treasury Bond (T2512)**: Spot price is 129.97, futures price is 114.87, basis is 0.50, basis rate is 0.43%, and historical quantile is 73.10% [1]. - **30 - Year Treasury Bond (TL2512)**: Spot price is 129.97, futures price is 114.87, basis is 0.50, basis rate is 0.43%, and historical quantile is 73.10% [1].