Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, crude oil prices showed a trend of stopping decline and adjusting after a sideways consolidation, but were continuously suppressed by the 5 - day moving average on the daily chart. The 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages both declined, forming a bearish arrangement, confirming continuous downward pressure on the market [3]. - The US - Russia meeting did not reach a substantial agreement, but a preliminary consensus on a cease - fire in Ukraine was reached, and the US temporarily withdrew the threat of sanctions on Russian oil. This meeting was more of a "break - the - ice" move, releasing no bullish signals, leading to a lower opening of the overseas crude oil market and an increased risk of a mid - term breakdown [3]. - The expectation of a tri - party meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine is rising. The US may provide security guarantees similar to Article 5 of NATO for Ukraine, and Russia may acquiesce, clearing the obstacles for a cease - fire agreement. Although the agreement has not been finalized, the direction of a rapid cooling of the situation is clear, the geopolitical risk level is decreasing, and the potential support for crude oil is continuously weakening [3]. - If a final cease - fire is achieved, the geopolitical premium since 2022 will face a systematic correction. Coupled with OPEC + turning to increasing production, the core support for the bulls will further erode [3]. - Fundamentally, the seasonal demand inflection point is approaching, and the suppression of crude oil will gradually emerge. The risk of market surplus may become the main trading theme in the later period, and time is unfavorable to crude oil bulls. The current market has not fully reflected the fundamental bearish factors, and attention is still scattered by short - term events, but potential bearish risks need to be vigilant [3]. - In the medium and long term, the fundamental trend is clearly weakening, and the bearish orientation remains unchanged. Overall, the US - Russia meeting brought no substantial benefits, coupled with the weakening of geopolitical support and the accumulation of fundamental bearish factors, the risk of a mid - term breakdown of crude oil prices has intensified. Short - term developments in the Russia - Ukraine situation still need to be tracked, and in the medium and long term, the gradual pricing of fundamental bearish factors needs to be vigilant [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Trends - On the 15th, US President Trump and Russian President Putin held a meeting at the Elmendorf - Richardson Joint Military Base in Anchorage, Alaska. They did not give speeches at the beginning of the meeting. The meeting was expected to last 6 - 7 hours [6]. - US retail sales in July increased by 0.5% month - on - month, showing a significant increase for the second consecutive month, with the previous value revised up to 0.9%. The year - on - year increase in July retail sales reached 3.9%, and the real retail sales after inflation adjustment increased by 1.2% year - on - year, achieving positive growth for the tenth consecutive month [7]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky met with US President Trump in Washington. European leaders were invited to attend the "Trump - Zelensky meeting" next Monday. EU Commission President von der Leyen and German Chancellor Merz confirmed their attendance [7]. - Trump and European leaders discussed providing non - NATO but equivalent to Article 5 security guarantees for Ukraine [7]. - After the Trump - Putin meeting, it was stated that there is currently no plan to impose additional tariffs on China's purchase of Russian oil, but this issue may be considered in two or three weeks [7]. EIA Weekly Inventory - For the week ending August 8 in the US, EIA crude oil inventory increased by 3.036 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 275,000 barrels and a previous decrease of 3.029 million barrels. Strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 226,000 barrels, with the previous increase of 235,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 45,000 barrels, with the previous increase of 453,000 barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 792,000 barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 693,000 barrels and a previous decrease of 1.323 million barrels. Refined oil inventory increased by 714,000 barrels, compared with an expected increase of 725,000 barrels and a previous decrease of 565,000 barrels [8]. - Crude oil production increased by 43,000 barrels to 13.327 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil imports were 6.92 million barrels per day, an increase of 958,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week. Crude oil exports increased by 259,000 barrels per day to 3.577 million barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate was 96.4%, compared with an expected 96.8% and a previous 96.9% [8]. CME Volume and Open Interest Data - The trading volume of WTI crude oil futures was 815,102 lots, a decrease of 84,832 lots compared with the previous trading day. The open interest was 1,975,316 lots, a decrease of 6,284 lots compared with the previous trading day [9]. - The trading volume of Brent crude oil futures was 119,380 lots, a decrease of 22,330 lots compared with the previous trading day. The open interest was 195,944 lots, an increase of 2,902 lots compared with the previous trading day [9].