Workflow
学生达峰
icon
Search documents
小学生人数,开始减少了
虎嗅APP· 2025-11-28 09:55
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that after reaching a peak in population, the number of students in various educational stages will also peak, leading to significant changes in the education sector [4][5]. - In 2023, the number of primary school students reached its peak, with a projected peak for junior high school in 2024, high school in 2029, and higher education by 2032 [6][12]. - The number of students in primary schools is expected to decrease from 108 million to 105.6 million, a reduction of 2.52 million [7]. Group 2 - The decline in the number of students is a delayed response to changes in birth rates, which have dropped from over 18.8 million to a low of 9.02 million in recent years [12][14]. - The number of kindergartens and primary schools has already decreased, with over 20,000 kindergartens and 7,000 primary schools closing in the past year [16]. - The education system will need to adjust to the declining student population, including changes in school and teacher resources [15][19]. Group 3 - The teaching workforce, which peaked at nearly 19 million, is now facing a surplus due to declining student numbers, with a projected surplus of 1.5 million primary school teachers by 2035 [28][32]. - The article suggests that the traditional "iron rice bowl" of teaching positions may not lead to immediate layoffs but will result in hiring freezes and reallocation of teachers to address imbalances [34][36]. - Strategies to cope with the surplus include expanding early childhood education and implementing small class sizes, although financial constraints may limit these options [38][40].