Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that after reaching a peak in population, the number of students in various educational stages will also peak, leading to significant changes in the education sector [4][5]. - In 2023, the number of primary school students reached its peak, with a projected peak for junior high school in 2024, high school in 2029, and higher education by 2032 [6][12]. - The number of students in primary schools is expected to decrease from 108 million to 105.6 million, a reduction of 2.52 million [7]. Group 2 - The decline in the number of students is a delayed response to changes in birth rates, which have dropped from over 18.8 million to a low of 9.02 million in recent years [12][14]. - The number of kindergartens and primary schools has already decreased, with over 20,000 kindergartens and 7,000 primary schools closing in the past year [16]. - The education system will need to adjust to the declining student population, including changes in school and teacher resources [15][19]. Group 3 - The teaching workforce, which peaked at nearly 19 million, is now facing a surplus due to declining student numbers, with a projected surplus of 1.5 million primary school teachers by 2035 [28][32]. - The article suggests that the traditional "iron rice bowl" of teaching positions may not lead to immediate layoffs but will result in hiring freezes and reallocation of teachers to address imbalances [34][36]. - Strategies to cope with the surplus include expanding early childhood education and implementing small class sizes, although financial constraints may limit these options [38][40].

Core Viewpoint - The crisis of teacher surplus in China is rapidly spreading, with projections indicating a potential surplus of 2 million teaching positions by 2035 due to a significant decline in newborns [1][3]. Group 1: Teacher Surplus and Employment Changes - By 2035, there will be a surplus of 1.5 million elementary school teachers and 370,000 middle school teachers, leading to a total of 2 million teaching positions disappearing [1]. - The education system is undergoing major reforms, such as the implementation of performance-based contracts for teachers, which could lead to job losses for those who do not meet performance standards [3]. - In Jiangxi Province, the number of new teacher recruitments is projected to drop from 20,775 in 2020 to just 2,146 by 2025, a staggering decline of 90% [3]. Group 2: School Closures and Teacher Placement - Between 2022 and 2023, a total of 20,400 kindergartens and 5,600 elementary schools were closed nationwide, with the Northeast region being particularly affected [5]. - Suggestions have been made to address the surplus by reducing class sizes, shifting from 50 students per class to 25 or even 15 [5]. Group 3: Proposed Solutions for Teacher Surplus - One proposed solution is to encourage older teachers to retire early or transition to administrative roles, allowing younger teachers to take on frontline teaching positions [9]. - Another suggestion is to facilitate the transfer of surplus teachers to other educational sectors, such as vocational schools and community education, where there is still demand for educators [12]. - Implementing a rotation system for teachers could help alleviate the surplus in urban areas by encouraging teachers to work in underserved rural regions [14].