Report Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report reviews 5 historical instances of bond bull - to - bear market transitions to provide insights for the current bond market [1]. - The main factor for the bond market's bull - to - bear transition is the recovery of real - entity financing demand, and it's crucial to grasp the timing of the central bank's monetary tightening [7]. - The bond market's interest rate fluctuation center is rising, and a defensive - counterattack investment strategy is suitable, waiting for trading opportunities from stock market rhythm changes [8]. Summary by Directory 2002 - 2020 Five Rounds of Bond Bull - to - Bear Market Review - 2003.9 - 2004.12: Rising inflation and tightened monetary policy led to a bond bear market. The central bank raised the reserve requirement ratio to prevent excessive growth of money and credit [2]. - 2006.11 - 2007.11: Over - heated economy and tightened monetary policy caused the bond market to turn bearish. Strong terminal demand drove inflation up, and the central bank tightened policy to curb over - heating [3]. - 2009.1 - 2009.11: Counter - cyclical policies, economic recovery, and monetary tightening led to a bond bear market. The 10 - year treasury bond rate rose from 2.85% to 3.68%, and the market later entered a volatile phase [4]. - 2016.10 - 2017.11: Financial de - leveraging drove the bond bear market. The 10 - year treasury bond rate rose from 2.69% to 3.92%, with strict supervision and tight money as the main factors [5]. - 2020.5 - 2020.11: Premature shift in monetary policy and an economic inflection point brought a bond bear market. The 10 - year treasury bond rate rose from 2.54% to 3.25% [6]. Characteristics of Bond Bull - to - Bear Transition - The recovery of real - entity financing demand, represented by economic upturn and rising prices, is the main cause of the bond market's bull - to - bear transition. The real - estate cycle has a significant impact on bond market interest rates [7]. - Central bank's monetary tightening occurs in all bond bear markets, but the timing varies according to the macro - economic environment, and grasping this timing is key [7]. Investment Strategy - The "see - saw" effect between stocks and bonds is significant this year. Due to changes in inflation expectations, the bond market has declined while stocks have risen since July [8]. - Considering the low long - term interest rates and the possible PPI recovery, there is a risk of long - term interest rate re - pricing, and the interest rate curve tends to steepen [8]. - A defensive - counterattack strategy is recommended. Do not chase when the 10 - year treasury bond rate is below 1.7%, and consider short - term allocation at around 1.75%, waiting for trading opportunities from stock market rhythm changes [8].