1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent trend of non - ferrous metals shows a recovery from a low level, but with the easing of the Iranian situation and the decline in energy prices, non - ferrous metals have also adjusted moderately. There is still long - term demand growth and supply constraints in the non - ferrous metals market. The core concern of investors has shifted from short - term inflation panic caused by soaring energy prices to deep concerns about long - term economic stagnation or recession. The impact of high oil prices on non - ferrous metals may be phased. The main focus of the market in the future will be the assessment and changes of the duration of the geopolitical conflict and the Strait blockade. The change in the Fed's interest rate cut expectation also has an impact on the market [13]. - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different market logics and trends. For example, copper is expected to recover in the medium - to - long term due to factors such as inflation expectations and the entry of downstream consumption into the peak season; zinc is in a state of shock consolidation; the aluminum industry chain has different trends for different products such as aluminum, alumina, and recycled aluminum alloy; tin is in a state of shock and is recommended to be observed or take a long - biased approach; lead is in a state of shock and can be considered to go long at low prices after the macro - impact weakens; nickel and stainless steel are in a state of adjustment, and can be considered to go long at low prices when the macro - sentiment eases [3][5][6][8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: Non - ferrous metals have shown a recovery from a low level, but have adjusted moderately with the easing of the Iranian situation and the decline in energy prices. The market's focus has shifted from short - term inflation panic to concerns about long - term economic stagnation. The impact of high oil prices on non - ferrous metals is phased. The main concerns in the future are the geopolitical conflict and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations [13]. - **Variety - Specific Analysis**: - **Copper**: Powell's dovish statement reduces the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate hike this year, and the rise in gold and silver prices boosts copper prices. However, concerns about the US economic stagflation limit the rebound space of copper. In the medium - to - long term, rising oil prices push up inflation expectations, and copper prices are expected to rise. The supply of copper concentrates is still tight globally, but domestic smelters' production is not significantly restricted. Downstream demand is in the peak season, and the inventory is expected to enter the destocking cycle in April. It is recommended to go long at low prices and use options strategies [3][15]. - **Zinc**: The Iranian geopolitical situation may ease, and energy prices are adjusted. Powell's dovish statement boosts the expectation of an interest rate cut. The import ore TC continues to decline, and the domestic ore TC remains flat. The spot inventory is decreasing, and the downstream starts to show differentiation. It is recommended to go long at low prices and pay attention to the geopolitical situation, inflation expectations, and demand [5][17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum production capacity in the Middle East is disturbed, and the strong US dollar suppresses the non - ferrous metal market. It is recommended to buy on dips. Different products in the aluminum industry chain, such as aluminum, alumina, and recycled aluminum alloy, have different price ranges and strategies [6][7][17]. - **Tin**: The Shanghai tin market is in a weak shock under the pressure of the US dollar. It is recommended to observe or take a long - biased approach, pay attention to the capital sentiment, the situation of the ore end, and the macro - environment. Options can be used for protection [8][18]. - **Lead**: The geopolitical situation is repeated, and energy prices fall. The supply of primary and secondary lead increases, and the downstream demand is weak. The inventory shows a slight decrease. It is recommended to go long at low prices after the macro - impact weakens and pay attention to the demand recovery and inventory changes [9][18]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The Iranian geopolitical situation may ease, and energy prices are adjusted. Powell's dovish statement boosts the expectation of an interest rate cut. The implementation of Indonesia's nickel windfall tax and export tax is delayed. The supply of nickel ore is strong, and the demand is weak. Stainless steel is in a state of adjustment, and it is recommended to go long at low prices when the macro - sentiment eases [10][18][19]. Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review The report provides the closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy [20]. Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis The report shows the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metal sector, including the price changes, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, and changes in net long and net short positions of each variety, as well as the influencing factors [23]. Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market The report provides the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [24][25]. Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain The report presents various charts related to the non - ferrous metals industry chain, including the inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, cast aluminum alloy, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [26][28][31][36][40][42][44][48]. Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage The report shows various charts related to non - ferrous metals arbitrage, including the changes in the Shanghai - London ratio, the basis, and the spread of different varieties such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [50][52][54][59][61][63][64]. Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options The report presents various charts related to non - ferrous metals options, including the historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and position changes of copper, zinc, and aluminum options [66][70][72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, the manufacturing PMI exceeded seasonal expectations and returned above the boom - bust line, with the production index seasonally rebounding, both domestic and external demand improving, and enterprises actively replenishing inventories. The service industry PMI returned to the expansion range, while the construction industry was still in the contraction range, and cost - rising pressure emerged. The subsequent focus should be on international situation changes and promoting various economic - stabilizing policies [1][10]. - The improvement in the manufacturing PMI in March led to some adjustments in the bond market. The current core driving factors of the market are the Middle East situation, inflation expectations, and the increasing allocation power in the bond market. Ultra - long - term interest rates have entered a stage of restorative decline, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and bullish. Future attention should be paid to the persistence of the decline in risk appetite, the situation of fundamental recovery, and the special treasury bond issuance plan in Q2 [4][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 3 - month PMI Data Review - Manufacturing: In March, the manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, a 1.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, returning above the boom - bust line after two months. The production index seasonally recovered, both domestic and external demand improved, the price index rebounded significantly, enterprises actively replenished inventories, and procurement volume returned to the expansion range [10]. - Non - manufacturing: The service industry PMI returned to the expansion range, and the construction industry's contraction slowed down. In March, the service industry business activity index rose 0.5 percentage points to 50.2%, and the construction industry business activity index rose 1.1 percentage points to 49.3%. However, the month - on - month performance of both was weaker than the non - epidemic Spring Festival seasonality [12][15]. 3.2 Manufacturing: Simultaneous Improvement in Production and Demand, and a Significant Rebound in the Price Index - Production: The manufacturing PMI production index in March was 51.4%, a 1.8 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. This was due to the return of employees after the Spring Festival, the recovery of market demand, and the further manifestation of policy effects [16]. - Demand: Both domestic and external demand improved. The proportion of manufacturing enterprises reporting insufficient market demand dropped to below 50% for the first time since July 2022. The new order and new export order indexes increased by 3.0 and 4.1 percentage points respectively. SMEs stabilized, and three key industries expanded rapidly [18][20]. - Price: Affected by rising commodity prices and accelerated corporate procurement, the main raw material purchase price index and ex - factory price index rose by 9.1 and 4.8 percentage points respectively. The ex - factory price index reached a new high since April 2022, indicating that the year - on - year growth rate of PPI in March is expected to turn positive [22]. - Inventory: Enterprises actively replenished inventories, and procurement volume returned to the expansion range. The raw material inventory and finished - product inventory indexes increased by 0.2 and 0.9 percentage points respectively, and the procurement volume index rose to 50.9% [23]. 3.3 Non - manufacturing: Service Industry PMI Returns to Expansion, Construction Industry's Contraction Slows Down - Service Industry: In March, the service industry's prosperity increased slightly by 0.5 percentage points, returning above the boom - bust line. Industries such as railway transportation, telecommunications, and finance were in a high - prosperity range, while consumer - related industries declined due to the high base of Spring Festival consumption [29]. - Construction Industry: In March, the construction industry business activity index rose 1.1 percentage points to 49.3%. The civil engineering construction industry showed a significant increase, while the housing construction industry was still below 50%. The overall recovery was slower than in previous post - holiday periods [32]. 3.4 Impact on the Bond Market - In March, the manufacturing PMI exceeded seasonal expectations, the service industry PMI returned to expansion, but the construction industry was still in contraction, and cost - rising pressure emerged. The bond market adjusted due to the improvement in the manufacturing PMI. The current core driving factors are the Middle East situation, inflation expectations, and the increasing allocation power in the bond market. The bond market is expected to be volatile and bullish, and future attention should focus on risk appetite, fundamental recovery, and the special treasury bond issuance plan in Q2 [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide specific industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical tensions ease [2][4] - Silver: Drops from the oscillation platform [2][4] - Copper: Risk sentiment rebounds, and prices rise [2][7] - Zinc: Shows a relatively strong performance [2][10] - Lead: Decrease in overseas inventories supports prices [2][14] - Tin: Oscillates with a slight upward trend [2][17] - Aluminum: Supply pressure persists [2][21] - Alumina: The oversupply situation remains unchanged [2][21] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21] - Platinum: The situation reverses, and prices rebound [2][24] - Palladium: Rebounds upward [2][25] - Nickel: The marginal increase in inventory slows down, and the cost of pyrometallurgy is pushed up by the ore end [2][29] - Stainless steel: The steel price oscillates due to the game between demand and cost [2][30] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver futures and spot have increased to varying degrees, with trading volumes and positions showing different changes. ETF holdings have decreased, and inventory changes vary. Price spreads also show different trends [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Powell said the Fed's interest rates are in a "favorable position," and the White House and Iran have different stances on the negotiation [4][6]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Shanghai copper futures decreased during the day but increased at night, and the price of LME copper increased. Trading volumes and positions changed, and inventory decreased. Price spreads also showed different trends [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump said he would end the Iran war in "two to three weeks," and China's central bank will strengthen monetary policy regulation. China's refined copper production increased, and Peru's copper production also increased. Codelco expects production costs to rise [7][9]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Shanghai zinc futures decreased slightly, while the price of LME zinc increased. Trading volumes and positions changed, and inventory decreased. Price spreads also showed different trends [10]. - **News**: Trump's "exit roadmap" emerged, and the euro - zone inflation rate soared, increasing the expectation of interest rate hikes [11]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Shanghai lead futures increased slightly, and the price of LME lead also increased. Trading volumes and positions changed, and overseas inventory decreased. Price spreads also showed different trends [14]. - **News**: Trump said he would end the Iran war in "two to three weeks," and China's central bank will strengthen monetary policy regulation [15]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Shanghai tin futures increased, and the price of LME tin also increased. Trading volumes and positions decreased, and inventory changed. Price spreads also showed different trends [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Iranian president expressed the willingness to end the war, Trump said he would end the Iran war in "two to three weeks," China's central bank will strengthen monetary policy regulation, and the euro - zone inflation rate soared [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot showed different trends, with trading volumes, positions, and inventory changing. Price spreads also showed different trends [21]. - **Comprehensive News**: The ECB president questioned the US Treasury Secretary's view on the impact of the Iran war, and the decoupling of US Treasury bonds and oil prices became a key signal [23]. Platinum and Palladium - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot showed different trends, with trading volumes, positions, and inventory changing. Price spreads also showed different trends [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: OPEC's production in March hit a new low since the peak of the COVID - 19 pandemic, and there were various news about the Iran situation [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel futures showed different trends, with trading volumes, positions, and inventory changing. Price spreads also showed different trends [30]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia plans to adjust the benchmark price of nickel ore, a Swiss company plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala, and there are various news about nickel production and sanctions in Indonesia [30][31][34]. - **Inventory Tracking**: The inventory of refined nickel, new energy, and nickel - iron stainless steel showed different trends [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: The geopolitical situation is unclear, and the market is in a fierce tug - of - war between bulls and bears. Crude oil is mainly in high - level volatility. [3][4] - Stock index: The short - term volatility is large. Consider interval operations to seize stage - up opportunities. [5] - Gold: Given the unclear short - term driving factors and high price volatility, wait for clear catalysts at the macro or geopolitical level. [6][7] - Silver: The current price fluctuates extremely violently. Pay close attention to energy prices and global manufacturing PMI data. [8] - Rubber: The Shanghai rubber main contract may have certain support around 16,000 yuan/ton and show a fluctuating trend. [10] - Plastic: It is expected that plastics will fluctuate in a relatively strong range in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. [11] - Methanol: Methanol may continue the high - level fluctuation trend. Pay close attention to the spring maintenance intensity, geopolitical situation progress, and port inventory changes. [13] - PTA: In the short term, continuously pay attention to geopolitical disturbances, and the recovery of downstream demand is still the key. [14] - Ethylene glycol: The ethylene glycol market is currently strongly supported by supply contraction and stable demand. The short - term focus is on cost - side price disturbances under geopolitical factors. [15] - Soda ash: The futures price may enter a bottom - range fluctuation state. Adopt a bottom - range fluctuation thinking in the short term. [16] - Glass: The glass market is expected to continue the interval - fluctuation trend. Adopt an interval - fluctuation thinking in the short term. [18] - Corn: Corn is under pressure to correct in the short term. Pay attention to the support around 2,350 yuan/ton. [19][20] - Peanut: The main peanut contract fluctuates in a wide range. Operate cautiously. [21] - Cotton: Cotton is in high - level volatility. Operate cautiously. [22] - Soybean meal: Soybean meal may be weakly volatile in the short term. [23] - Soybean oil: The biodiesel policy is about to be implemented. Operate cautiously. [24] - Rapeseed meal: For the RM2605 contract, be vigilant against price fluctuation risks in the short term and focus on risk prevention and control. [25] - Rapeseed oil: The OI05 contract may be mainly in shock adjustment in the short term. Pay attention to risk prevention and control. [26] - Live pigs: The spot price is initially stable. Wait for policy signals and operate cautiously. [27] - Eggs: Pay attention to the breeding side's replenishment and elimination in the medium and long term. [29] - Shanghai copper: The sentiment has improved. Conservative investors wait for definite signals, while aggressive ones can participate at an appropriate time. [30] - Shanghai aluminum: Operate cautiously and wait and see in the short term. [31] - Alumina: The expectation of oversupply remains unchanged, and there is still upward pressure. [32] - Cast aluminum alloy: The price is strongly correlated with Shanghai aluminum. Pay attention to the marginal changes in cost and demand. [33][34] - Lithium carbonate: Wait for opportunities to buy at low prices or enter the market after a breakthrough. [35] - Industrial silicon: Cost support is dominant. There may be no trending market in the short term. Wait and see for the time being. [36] - Polysilicon: The trading is sluggish with large fluctuations. It is not recommended to participate for now. [37] - Stainless steel: Affected by macro - sentiment, it fluctuates in the short term. [38] - Rebar: The market sentiment is strong, and steel products fluctuate strongly. [39][40] - Hot - rolled coil: The market sentiment is strong, and steel products fluctuate strongly. [41] - Iron ore: Iron ore may fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to inventory accumulation and demand recovery rhythm. [42] - Coking coal and coke: They may maintain a fluctuating pattern in the short term. Pay attention to the actual purchasing power of steel mills, coal mine capacity release, and policy implementation. [43][44] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Macro and geopolitics: The US - Iran conflict is in a state of "talking while fighting". The uncertainty of geopolitics disturbs the crude oil and chemical sectors, and the energy - chemical sector remains strong before the crisis is completely resolved. The resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the safety of Middle - East oil and gas facilities are the main influencing factors [3]. - Market analysis: The change in the Gulf situation affects the futures market in real - time. The energy - chemical prices are in high - level volatility. If there is no further attack on oil and gas and the Strait of Hormuz is opened orderly, the supply - demand contradiction may be alleviated [3]. Stock Index - Macro information: The market is in an environment with internal support and external pressure. The internal support comes from the improvement of macro - economic data and policy tone, while the external pressure is from the Middle - East conflict [5]. - Market analysis: On March 31, the A - share market declined across the board. Funds flowed from the technology - growth sectors to the large - cap blue - chip sectors. [5] Gold - Macro and geopolitics: The Fed maintained the interest rate in March, with only one expected rate cut this year. The Middle - East conflict continues, and the prospect of a cease - fire negotiation is unclear [6]. - Market analysis: On March 31, the spot gold price rebounded slightly. High oil prices strengthen the Fed's "higher - for - longer" stance, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. However, if the Middle - East situation escalates, the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset may increase [6][7]. Silver - External price: The spot silver price has experienced sharp adjustments and rebounded on March 31. The inventory data shows a tight fundamental situation [8]. - Market analysis: The silver market is in a game between macro - suppression and fundamental support. High energy prices may suppress the price, while low inventory and industrial demand may support it [8]. Chemical Industry Rubber - Market price: The prices of various types of rubber and raw materials are provided [9]. - Market analysis: Due to the off - season of rubber tapping, high raw material prices, and the rising price of BR synthetic rubber, the downside space of Shanghai rubber is limited. Pay attention to domestic rubber - tapping, downstream start - up, inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, and BR rubber premium [10]. Plastic - Spot information: The spot prices in different regions have declined [11]. - Market analysis: The supply has decreased due to device maintenance, the demand is at a low level, and the inventory is at a certain level. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level and is affected by geopolitics and oil prices [11]. Methanol - Spot information: The spot prices in different regions show different trends [12][13]. - Market analysis: The futures price has declined. The port inventory is decreasing, the domestic supply is expected to remain high, and the demand is recovering. The international situation may lead to a structural adjustment in methanol trade [13]. PTA - Spot information: The spot price has decreased, and the basis has also changed [14]. - Market analysis: The PTA industry's operating rate is at a high level, but the downstream polyester industry's sales are sluggish. Pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and downstream demand recovery [14]. Ethylene Glycol - Spot information: The spot price has decreased, and the basis has changed [15]. - Market analysis: The domestic production has decreased, the port inventory is declining, the expected arrival volume is low, and the polyester industry's high - level operation supports the demand. The short - term focus is on cost - side price disturbances [15]. Soda Ash - Spot information: The mainstream prices in different regions are stable [16]. - Market analysis: The supply has decreased, the factory inventory is slightly decreasing, and the social inventory is increasing. The demand is weak. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the bottom range [16]. Glass - Spot information: The prices in different regions are stable [17][18]. - Market analysis: The supply has decreased slightly, the factory inventory is decreasing, and the terminal demand in the peak season may support the market. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range [18]. Agricultural Products Corn - Spot information: The purchase prices in different regions are provided [19]. - Market analysis: The USDA report shows an increase in global corn production and inventory. The domestic supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [19]. Peanut - Spot price: The peanut price is mostly stable, with a decline in the Northeast. The supply is tight in the short term, and the demand is slightly boosted, but the price may decline later [21]. - Market analysis: The peanut market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the supply rhythm and oil - mill procurement mentality [21]. Cotton - Spot information: The spot prices at home and abroad have changed, and the basis and price difference have also changed [22]. - Market analysis: The international cotton price is rising. The domestic supply is expected to decrease, the demand has some resilience, and the commercial inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [22]. Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot price is continuously decreasing [23]. - Market analysis: The market is waiting for the US soybean planting intention report. The cost support is weakening, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, and the inventory may increase in the future [23]. Soybean Oil - Spot information: The spot price has slightly increased [24]. - Market analysis: Globally, it is affected by the Middle - East conflict and biodiesel policy. Domestically, it is about to enter the off - season. Pay attention to the situation of the US - Iran conflict and the implementation of the biodiesel policy [24]. Rapeseed Meal - Spot market: The basis price is stable [25]. - Market analysis: The US soybean market has no obvious driving factors, waiting for the biodiesel policy. The relaxation of regulations on Brazilian soybeans suppresses the market sentiment. Pay attention to geopolitical conflicts [25]. Rapeseed Oil - Spot market: The basis price is stable [26]. - Market analysis: Brazilian biodiesel producers have the ability to support a higher blending ratio. The supply of non - GMO rapeseed oil is tight. Pay attention to the Middle - East situation, crude - oil trend, and the implementation of the US biodiesel policy [26]. Live Pigs - Spot market: The price is stable in general, with a slight increase in Henan [27]. - Market analysis: The supply is slowing down, the demand is in the off - season, and the policy of purchasing and storing is expected to increase. The spot price is initially stable, and pay attention to the reversal signal [27]. Eggs - Spot market: The price is rising steadily [28]. - Market analysis: The supply pressure of new - laying hens is small, the egg - laying hen inventory is declining, the demand is affected by seasonal factors, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the long - term supply - side changes [29]. Metals Shanghai Copper - Spot information: The spot price has increased [30]. - Market analysis: The domestic inventory is in the destocking cycle, but the global inventory is high. The copper - smelting industry is under pressure, and the price is supported by domestic destocking and new - energy demand but restricted by high inventory and smelting losses [30]. Shanghai Aluminum - Spot information: The spot price has increased [31]. - Market analysis: The attack on Middle - East aluminum factories has increased the price. The domestic supply is rigid, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory has increased. The price is supported in the short term but may be under pressure in the long term [31]. Alumina - Spot information: The average price has increased slightly [32]. - Market analysis: The supply is expected to be excessive due to the increase in production, the demand is mainly for rigid procurement, the import and export have no arbitrage space, and the inventory has increased [32]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Spot information: The average price is stable [33]. - Market analysis: The cost provides some support, the supply is in a state of over - capacity, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory is at a high level. The price is correlated with Shanghai aluminum, and pay attention to cost and demand changes [33][34]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate have decreased [35]. - Market analysis: The social inventory is at a low level, the supply is expected to decrease, the demand from energy - storage batteries is increasing, and the profit is differentiated. The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and pay attention to future supply and demand changes [35]. Industrial Silicon - Spot information: The market prices of different grades are provided [36]. - Market analysis: The supply is decreasing due to cost pressure, the inventory is high and difficult to destock, the demand is weak, and the price is supported by cost. Pay attention to the resumption of production of leading factories and the implementation of emission - reduction policies [36]. Polysilicon - Spot information: The prices of different types have decreased [36][37]. - Market analysis: The market is under the triple pressure of high inventory, deep losses, and serious supply - demand imbalance. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and pay attention to inventory destocking and policy intervention [37]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - Spot information: The spot price is stable [37]. - Market analysis: The adjustment of Indonesian nickel - mine quotas drives the price up, but the weak terminal demand and high inventory may suppress the upward space. The price may fluctuate in the short term [38]. Rebar - Spot information: The spot price is stable [39]. - Market analysis: Affected by domestic policy expectations and overseas macro - factors, the price is in a strong - basis regression and fluctuates strongly. The supply and demand are both weak, the inventory is decreasing, and the cost has resilience. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [39][40]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Spot information: The spot price is stable [41]. - Market analysis: Affected by domestic policy expectations and overseas macro - factors, the price is in a strong - basis regression and fluctuates strongly. The supply is at a high level, the demand is slightly decreasing, the inventory is slightly decreasing, and the cost has resilience. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [41]. Iron Ore - Spot information: The prices of different types of iron ore show different trends [42]. - Market analysis: The iron - ore market is in a game between short - term geopolitical premium support and medium - term supply - demand relaxation. The price is pressured by high inventory but pushed up by policy disturbances. The supply is expected to be loose in the long term, and the demand is recovering slowly. The price may fluctuate in the short term [42]. Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price index of coking coal has decreased, and the average price of first - class metallurgical coke is stable [43]. - Market analysis: For coking coal, the supply is increasing but restricted by inventory, the demand is elastic, and the price is affected by energy prices and supply - demand. For coke, the supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is affected by coking - coal price and geopolitical factors. They are expected to fluctuate in the short term [43][44]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and gives corresponding trend forecasts and analysis of influencing factors for each commodity [1][2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical tensions ease, and the trend strength is 0 [2][5]. - **Silver**: Drops from the trading range, and the trend strength is 0 [2][5]. - **Platinum**: The situation reverses and rebounds, with a trend strength of 1 [2][25]. - **Palladium**: Rebounds upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [2][25]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Risk sentiment improves, and prices rise. The trend strength is 1 [2][8]. - **Zinc**: Runs strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][11]. - **Lead**: Overseas inventories decline, supporting prices. The trend strength is 0 [2][14]. - **Tin**: Oscillates strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: Supply pressure persists. The trend strength is 1 [2][21]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. The trend strength is -1 [2][21]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength is 1 [2][21]. - **Nickel**: Inventory accumulation slows down marginally, and the ore end supports the upward shift of the pyrometallurgical cost. The trend strength is 0 [2][30]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price oscillates due to the game between demand and cost. The trend strength is 0 [2][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The document does not directly cover crude oil, but it mentions the impact of geopolitical factors on energy prices [68][69]. - **Methanol**: Oscillates at a high level. The trend strength is 0 [2][101]. - **Urea**: Oscillates in the short - term. The trend strength is 0 [2][107]. - **Benzene**: Oscillates strongly. The trend strength is 0 [2][110]. - **PTA**: In a short - term oscillatory market. The trend strength is -1 [2][68]. - **MEG**: In a short - term oscillatory market. The trend strength is -1 [2][68]. - **Rubber**: Widely oscillates. The trend strength is 0 [2][76]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Widely oscillates within the day. The trend strength is 0 [2][79]. - **LLDPE**: Supply contraction continues, and the structure is differentiated. The trend strength is 1 [2][83]. - **PP**: The supply is strongly supported by increased cracking and PDH maintenance in April. The trend strength is 1 [2][84]. - **Caustic Soda**: The valuation is at a low level. The trend strength is 1 [2][89]. - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillates. The trend strength is 0 [2][93]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The trend strength is 0 [2][98]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changes little. The trend strength is 0 [2][116]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical risks remain, and supply disruptions occur frequently. The trend strength is 1 [2][121]. - **Propylene**: The fundamentals are supportive, and the trend remains strong. The trend strength is 1 [2][122]. - **PVC**: Widely oscillates. The trend strength is 0 [2][130]. - **Fuel Oil**: Drops at the night session and remains high in the short - term. The trend strength is 0 [2][133]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Relatively stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rebounds overseas. The trend strength is 0 [2][133]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Stimulated by B50 news, it shows a short - term strong performance. The trend strength is 1 [2][161]. - **Soybean Oil**: The sown area is lower than expected, boosting the sentiment of the soybean sector. The trend strength is 0 [2][161]. - **Soybean Meal**: The USDA area report is bullish, and the market may rebound. The trend strength is 1 [2][170]. - **Soybean**: The spot price is stable, and the market rebounds and oscillates. The trend strength is 0 [2][170]. - **Corn**: Oscillates. The trend strength is 0 [2][173]. - **Sugar**: Oscillates within a range. The trend strength is 0 [2][177]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the new domestic crop planting. The trend strength is 0 [2][181]. - **Eggs**: Wait for opportunities to short at high prices in the far - month contracts. The trend strength is 0 [2][185]. - **Hogs**: The L - bottom expectation is recognized, and the central price continues to decline. The trend strength is -1 [2][188]. - **Peanuts**: Pay attention to the purchases of oil mills. The trend strength is 0 [2][192]. Others - **Iron Ore**: The resumption of hot metal production is slow, and ore prices are under pressure. The trend strength is -1 [2][48]. - **Rebar**: The market sentiment is weak, and the price oscillates repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [2][52]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market sentiment is weak, and the price oscillates repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [2][52]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The market trading sentiment fluctuates, and the futures price oscillates weakly. The trend strength is -1 [2][57]. - **Manganese Silicide**: The expected demand from the ore end tightens, and the futures price oscillates weakly. The trend strength is -1 [2][57]. - **Coke**: Oscillates weakly. The trend strength is -1 [2][60]. - **Coking Coal**: Oscillates weakly. The trend strength is -1 [2][60]. - **Log**: The demand improves, and the price oscillates at a high level. The trend strength is 0 [2][64]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot loading is under pressure. The 04 contract oscillates and consolidates, and the far - month contracts fluctuate with geopolitical factors. The trend strength is 0 [2][135]. - **Short - Fiber**: Oscillates at a high level. The trend strength is 0 [2][148]. - **Bottle Chip**: Oscillates at a high level. The trend strength is 0 [2][148]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The trend strength is 0 [2][151].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [7] 2. Core View of the Report - In March, due to the geopolitical conflict driving up oil prices and strengthening inflation expectations, there was a positive impact on black commodities, and market sentiment improved. Demand entered the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season and has been increasing for five consecutive weeks. However, due to weak real - estate demand, the overall release rhythm is still weak. On the cost side, rising raw material prices provide strong cost support for steel prices. In general, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. In April, steel prices lack a basis for a strong rebound and may generally fluctuate, with the price center rising due to cost support and a possible slight increase [6][38] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: The report mentions the daily K - line chart of the main contract of rebar futures, but no specific price analysis data is provided [8][9] - **Spot Price**: As of March 31, 2026, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin, it was 3,190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15] - **Basis and Spread**: The report mentions the rebar basis (active contract), but no specific analysis data is provided [16][17] Important Market Information - In March, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held its first - quarter meeting on March 26, suggesting to give play to the integrated effect of incremental and stock policies, comprehensively use various tools, strengthen monetary policy regulation, and grasp the intensity, rhythm, and timing of policy implementation according to domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial market operation conditions [18] Supply - side Situation - The report mentions the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills, and rebar production, but no specific analysis data is provided [19][23] Demand - side Situation - As of March 2026, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 49.3, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%; the current value of the Lange Iron and Steel: Steel Distribution Industry Purchasing Managers' Index was 53.4, a month - on - month increase of 5.4% [28] Fundamental Analysis - In March 2026, the PMI of the steel industry was 50.6%, up 3.9 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range after running below 50% for 7 consecutive months. It is expected that in April, the steel industry will maintain a stable and positive operation, with market demand recovering and steel mill production increasing steadily. Raw material and steel prices still have room to rise [35] - From January to February 2026, China's pig iron output was 13,770 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%; crude steel output was 16,034 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%; steel output was 22,119 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [6][36] - In February 2026, China exported 783,800 tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%, with an export average price of 729.0 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.7%. From January to February, China's cumulative steel exports were 1,559,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%, with an export average price of 706.4 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year slight decrease of 1.0%. In February, China imported 36,900 tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 19.6%, with an import average price of 1,740.7 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9%. From January to February, China's cumulative steel imports were 82,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.2%, with an import average price of 1,769.5 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year increase of 8.0% [36] - In February 2026, global crude steel output was 141.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%; from January to February 2026, global crude steel output was 298.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5% [6][36] - In mid - March, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 17.91 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons, a growth of 0.6%; a year - on - year increase of 1 million tons, a growth of 5.9% [6][37] 后市展望 - In March, due to the geopolitical conflict driving up oil prices and strengthening inflation expectations, there was a positive impact on black commodities, and market sentiment improved. Demand entered the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season and has been increasing for five consecutive weeks. However, due to weak real - estate demand, the overall release rhythm is still weak. On the cost side, rising raw material prices provide strong cost support for steel prices. In general, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. In April, steel prices lack a basis for a strong rebound and may generally fluctuate, with the price center rising due to cost support and a possible slight increase [6][38] Operation Strategy - Single - side: Short - term long positions on dips within the range - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Wait and see [7][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, due to continuous geopolitical uncertainties, rising oil prices causing stagflation concerns, and cautious market sentiment during the performance disclosure period, it is difficult for the market to have a rapid V - shaped recovery. The index will maintain a range - bound oscillation. In the long - term, liquidity concerns are expected to improve after the conflict eases. As the inflection points of the macro - economic fundamentals and corporate earnings arrive, the main driving force of A - shares may gradually shift from liquidity to substantial performance improvement. Also, considering the long - term optimistic outlook for the index, one can choose the right time to try the roll - down strategy to obtain excess returns [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与后市展望 3.1.1行情回顾 - On March 31st, the Wind All - A Index fell slightly with increased volume. After a small rise at the opening, it oscillated and declined, closing down 1.42%. More than 4,000 stocks in the whole market fell. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed down 0.93%, 0.25%, 1.76%, and 1.91% respectively. In the futures market, the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM fell 0.87%, 0.30%, 1.79%, and 1.73% respectively (calculated by closing price) [6] 3.1.2后市展望 - **External Market**: Fed Chairman Powell said that long - term inflation expectations seem to be under control, but the Fed is closely monitoring these expectations to assess the impact of the war between the US, Israel and Iran. The current policy is in a suitable position and can wait and see. His statement led to a decline in the expectation of Fed rate hikes, giving short - term support to gold prices. - **Domestic Market**: The economic data from January to February showed that export performance far exceeded expectations, and the data of social retail sales and industrial added value were also better than expected. In terms of liquidity, the trading volume of the two markets has recently stabilized at around 2 trillion, and the margin trading balance remains at a relatively high level. - **Short - term Outlook**: Geopolitical uncertainties continue to fluctuate. Rising oil prices have raised concerns about stagflation, and market sentiment is expected to be relatively cautious during the performance disclosure period. It is difficult for the market to have a rapid V - shaped recovery, and it is necessary to wait for clearer signals in the geopolitical situation. The index will maintain a range - bound oscillation. - **Long - term Outlook**: Liquidity concerns are expected to improve after the conflict eases. China benefits from the competitive advantage of the supply chain and is more resilient. As the inflection points of the macro - economic fundamentals and corporate earnings arrive, the main driving force of A - shares may gradually shift from liquidity to substantial performance improvement. After the main contracts of IC and IM are switched to the far - month contracts, there is a deep discount again. Considering the long - term optimistic outlook for the index, one can choose the right time to try the roll - down strategy to obtain excess returns [7][8] 3.2数据概览 - The report provides multiple data charts, including the performance of domestic major indices, market style performance, industry sector performance (Shenwan Primary Index), the trading volume of the Wind All - A Index, the trading volume of stock index spot, the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, the basis trend of the main contracts, the inter - period spread trend, the share statistics of major ETF funds, and the turnover statistics of major ETFs. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][11][24] 3.3行业要闻 - Powell said that it is not yet time to determine the economic impact of the Iran war; energy price shocks are often short - term, and monetary policy transmission is too slow to hedge supply - side price pressures in real - time. Usually, such shocks are ignored, but the key premise is to closely monitor inflation expectations; long - term inflation expectations remain stable; tariffs have a one - time impact on inflation; he reiterated his commitment to bringing inflation back to 2%; he supported QE, saying that extensive research shows that buying long - term assets can lower interest rates; the Fed is closely monitoring private credit, and there is no systemic risk yet; large language models will replace a large number of automatable jobs, and the current employment environment for young people is difficult, but the prospects are optimistic; he advised the next - term Wash to avoid using monetary policy tools for other purposes. The "New Fed Wire" reported that Powell said the Fed can ignore oil price shocks but warned that patience has an end [26]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran is the core focus of the market, affecting global risk preferences, inflation expectations, and the performance of various asset classes. The market is shifting from short - term inflation panic to concerns about medium - term economic recession[4][8][11]. - Different industries are affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand dynamics, and cost factors. Some industries are expected to have short - term price support or upward trends, while others may face downward pressure or remain in a state of shock[14][16][19]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: The attack on Iran's Qeshm Island, large - scale investment in AI data centers and technology R & D, stable helium supply in South Korea, and the good performance of Zhipu API platform[2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have different basis annualized ratios[3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The US - Iran conflict affects global risk preferences. The market is shifting from inflation panic to recession concerns. It is recommended to pay attention to the war situation and control risks[4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed on Tuesday. China's March PMI data showed an improvement in manufacturing and non - manufacturing industries. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations and maintained liquidity[5][6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic recovery in the first quarter is expected, but the pressure on the profit side and inflation may affect the bond market. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term[8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of gold and silver in domestic and international markets rose. The Fed emphasized inflation control, and the US - Iran conflict situation changed[9][10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The geopolitical conflict is still the focus. The short - term pressure on precious metals has eased, but long - term inflation expectations need to be vigilant. It is recommended to wait and see[11]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The copper price rebounded, LME and domestic inventories decreased, and the spot discount narrowed[13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of copper ore is tight, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline, providing support for the copper price. The copper price is expected to fluctuate[14]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price fluctuated, the inventory increased, and the spot discount remained[15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas supply of aluminum is expected to be tight, and the domestic demand is improving. The aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short term[16]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price fell, and the downstream replenished inventory after the price decline[17][18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has stopped falling in the short term, but the follow - up purchase may be limited. The zinc price is in a downward trend and may continue to decline[19]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price rose slightly, and the inventory increased[20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot of lead has short - term support, but the high沪伦 ratio and the overall pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector may lead to a further decline in the lead price[20]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price fell, and the cost and nickel iron price were stable[21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The nickel price is expected to be weak in the short term but has strong support in the medium term. It is recommended to operate within a range[21]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price fell, the inventory changed, and the supply and demand showed different trends[22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of tin is limited, and the demand is weakly recovering. The tin price is expected to fluctuate[23]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate fell, and the contract position decreased[24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The resource - end contradiction is prominent. The short - term supply is slightly eased, but the uncertainty is still high. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors[24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price fell, the position increased, and the inventory increased[25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to rise, and the supply of alumina is tightened in the short term but remains in an oversupply situation in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see[26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price fell, the inventory increased, and the raw material price was stable[27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is stable, the terminal consumption is slightly better than expected, and the market is expected to be strong in the short term[28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose, the position decreased, and the inventory decreased[29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, the demand is expected to improve, and the price has strong support in the short term[30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fell, and the inventory decreased[32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel market is in a "weak balance" state. The demand has improved marginally, but there is no trend - upward driving force. It is necessary to pay attention to demand and raw material prices[33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price fell, and the position decreased[34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of iron ore is affected by weather and other factors, and the demand is expected to increase. The ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level[35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke fell, and the spot prices were at a premium[36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The short - term supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. It is recommended to operate in the short term or wait and see[38]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass price fell, and the inventory decreased[39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot trading is light, the demand is weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate narrowly[40]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased[41]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is tightened in the short term, and the demand is weak. The price is in a narrow - range adjustment[41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell, and the technical forms were weak[42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may be supported. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is good. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors[43][44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price fell, and the inventory and demand were weak[45]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon change little, and the price is expected to fluctuate[46]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon price fell, and the inventory was high[47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The polysilicon is in a negative - feedback adjustment state, and the price is expected to continue to find the bottom[48]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The market has different views on the rise and fall of rubber. The tire industry has different operating rates and inventory situations[50][51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade flexibly, take profit on call options, and configure put options. Hold the hedging position[53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The prices of crude oil and refined oil futures fell[54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to configure short - term short positions in crude oil, widen the price difference of different oil types, short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread[55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price rose, and the MTO profit changed[56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The methanol has included the geopolitical premium. It is recommended to take profit at high prices and widen the MTO profit at low prices[57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price changed slightly, and the futures price fell[58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of urea are both strong, and the domestic contradiction is not prominent. It is recommended to short at high prices[59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed, and the supply and demand indicators showed different trends[61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is high, and the supply and demand are in a complex situation. It is recommended to wait and see[62]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price fell, the inventory changed, and the supply and demand indicators changed[63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The enterprise profit is high, but there are supply reduction expectations. The domestic demand is under pressure, and the export situation is complex[64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price fell, the inventory increased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is expected to decrease, the demand is recovering, and the inventory is expected to decrease. Pay attention to risks[66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price fell, the inventory increased, and the processing fee changed[67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. Pay attention to risks[68]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene price fell, the inventory increased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is expected to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The valuation is expected to rise, but pay attention to risks[71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price fell, the inventory increased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE valuation has room to decline. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping volume increases[73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price fell, the inventory decreased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure of PP is relieved, and the demand is recovering. The short - term is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term is affected by production mismatch[75]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The pig price mostly fell, and the supply was abundant[77]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply improvement is limited, and it is recommended to short on rebounds[78]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price mostly fell, and the supply was stable[79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is sufficient, but the short - term price is strong. It is recommended to short on rebounds and hold short positions in the far - end contracts[80]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Trump's planned visit to China and soybean export and import data were announced[81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of protein meal fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see[83]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Indonesia's policies on palm oil and relevant production, export, and inventory data were announced[84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to rise in the medium term due to the US - Iran event[85]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The production and export data of sugar in different countries were announced[86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to the unstable international oil price, it is recommended to wait and see the sugar price[87]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Trump's planned visit to China, cotton import data, and production and consumption data were announced[88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Trump's visit is short - term positive for US cotton. It is recommended to buy on dips, but pay attention to the risk of the US - Iran event[89].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the risks and investment opportunities in various commodity sectors in the second quarter of 2026, including precious metals, non-ferrous metals, black commodities, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It points out that each sector faces different challenges and uncertainties, such as geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, high inventory, and weak demand. The report also provides corresponding investment strategies and risk management suggestions for each sector. Summary by Directory Precious Metals: Geopolitical Inflation Expectations Suppress Non-interest-bearing Assets - The Fed faces a dilemma between a weak employment market and inflation in 2Q, and any attempt to front-run the Fed's rate cuts will face high policy risk [4][5]. - The high-frequency switching of the Fed's monetary policy path has led to sharp fluctuations in the precious metals market, and the market's pricing of rate cuts has converged significantly [7]. - The geopolitical conflict has changed the transmission path of precious metals, and inflation expectations have led to a shift of funds from precious metals to high-yield assets, suppressing precious metal valuations [18]. - The repeated swings between negotiation and military confrontation between the US and Iran have made the driving effect of geopolitical events on precious metals turn into high-frequency and disordered two-way fluctuations [24]. Non-ferrous Metals: Macro Valuation Decline and Micro High Inventory - The overseas macro environment shows signs of stagflation, and interest rates and the US dollar put pressure on the valuation of non-ferrous metals [26][27]. - The high inventory situation in the non-ferrous metals market makes the market prone to narrow and violent fluctuations, and the supply side is vulnerable to non-economic factors [31][33][34]. Black Commodities: Negative Feedback under High Inventory and Weak Demand - The fundamentals of black commodities in 2Q have negative feedback risks, and the supply pressure of raw materials and the high inventory situation may lead to a negative feedback loop [36][39]. - The iron ore and coking coal markets face different risks, and the high valuation of ferroalloys lacks solid support [39]. Energy Chemicals: Geopolitical Premium - The energy chemicals market is highly sensitive to geopolitical events, and the blind judgment of the geopolitical situation may lead to a sharp decline in prices [48]. - The logistics reconstruction and basis risk in the energy chemicals market require traders to have strong time window control ability [51]. Agricultural Products: Biodiesel Policy and El Niño - The cost pricing logic of agricultural products has changed, and the easing of the Middle East situation may lead to a collapse of cost support [59]. - The supply growth of agricultural products is expected to be realized in 2Q, but the demand is weak, and the prices of some products may face downward pressure [64]. - The climate pattern switch and policy tail risks may have a significant impact on the agricultural products market [67]. Summary and Response - Precious metals: Adopt risk control as the top priority, build long-term strategic positions, and use options for risk management [69]. - Non-ferrous metals: Construct bullish call spread combinations and seagull option strategies for different types of enterprises [69]. - Black commodities: Adopt defensive and short-selling strategies, use arbitrage strategies and options to manage risks, and closely monitor marginal changes [69]. - Energy chemicals: Do not recommend unilateral trading, and construct seagull option strategy systems for upstream and midstream enterprises [69]. - Agricultural products: Adopt a band trading strategy, use arbitrage strategies to hedge risks, and strictly control positions [69].

Report Overview - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - Methanol closed at 3296.00 with a weekly increase of 5.24%;焦煤 closed at 1219.00 with a 4.10% increase; PTA closed at 6876.00 with a 3.40% increase; copper closed at 95930.00 with a 1.26% increase; palm oil closed at 9768.00 with a 0.51% increase; rebar closed at 3124.00 with a 0.03% increase. Aluminum closed at 23935.00 with a -0.35% decrease; iron ore closed at 812.00 with a -0.43% decrease; corn closed at 2369.00 with a -0.75% decrease; silver closed at 17489.00 with a -0.77% decrease; glass closed at 1041.00 with a -1.23% decrease; ethylene glycol closed at 5279.00 with a -1.38% decrease; live pigs closed at 9965.00 with a -2.50% decrease; soybean meal closed at 2937.00 with a -3.04% decrease; gold closed at 998.66 with a -4.16% decrease; crude oil closed at 740.80 with a -4.24% decrease; PVC closed at 5615.00 with a -4.43% decrease; polysilicon closed at 35680.00 with a -5.52% decrease [2] A-shares - CSI 500 closed at 7737.61 with a -0.29% decrease; SSE 300 closed at 4502.57 with a -1.41% decrease; SSE 50 closed at 2837.31 with a -1.61% decrease [2] Overseas Stocks - FTSE 100 closed at 9967.35 with a -1.29% decrease; France CAC40 closed at 7701.95 with a 0.47% increase; Nikkei 225 closed at 53373.07 with a 0.49% increase; Hang Seng Index closed at 24951.88; S&P 500 closed at 6368.85 with a -2.12% decrease; Nasdaq Index closed at 20948.36 with a -3.23% decrease [2] Bonds - China's 5-year treasury bond yield was 1.56 with a 0.67bp increase; 10-year treasury bond yield was 1.82 with a 0.39bp increase; 2-year treasury bond yield was 1.31 with a -0.28bp decrease [2] Foreign Exchange - US Dollar Index closed at 100.17 with a 0.67% increase; US Dollar mid-price was 6.91 with a 0.35% increase; Euro to US Dollar was 1.15 with a -0.50% decrease [2] Commodity Views Macro-financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 1 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic: 1-2 month industrial enterprise profits increased by 15.2% year-on-year, high-tech manufacturing profits grew by 58.7%, policies are releasing signals for stable growth, and stock index valuations are at a low historical level. Bearish logic: Uncertainty in the Middle East, rising Fed rate hike expectations, decreased trading volume, and potential weak terminal demand [3] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 is bullish, 2 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic: Safe-haven sentiment supports bonds, loose liquidity, and policy support. Bearish logic: Strong economic resilience, rising inflation expectations, and reduced short-term rate cut expectations [3] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 4 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 2 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic: Military confrontation between Iran and the US, disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, slow inventory reconstruction, and supply-demand imbalance. Bearish logic: Release of strategic reserves, increased Russian oil supply, OPEC+ production increase plan, and potential for a ceasefire [4] Agricultural Products Sector Soybean Meal - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic: High US soybean export inspections, rising fertilizer prices, slow Brazilian soybean arrivals, and increased feed demand. Bearish logic: Increasing soybean arrivals in April, faster Brazilian soybean harvest, expected increase in new-season soybean planting area, and long-term supply surplus [4] Non-ferrous Metals Sector Aluminum - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 5 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 2 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic: Attacks on aluminum plants in Bahrain and UAE, strong LME spot premium, rising domestic downstream processing enterprise operating rates, and a strong technical rebound. Bearish logic: Global inflation, potential recession trading, high domestic aluminum inventories, and low aluminum rod processing fees [5] Chemical Sector Methanol - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 6 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 1 expects a sideways trend. Bullish logic: Decreased Iranian methanol plant operating rates, improved downstream enterprise profits, increased downstream olefin demand, and accelerated inventory reduction. Bearish logic: Uncertainty in the conflict and potential price corrections [5] Precious Metals Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic: Geopolitical risks, high oil prices, and potential capital inflows. Bearish logic: Reduced market liquidity, unclear Fed rate cut path, strong US Dollar, and gold sales by some countries [6] Black Sector Coking Coal - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic: Rising energy prices, increased blast furnace operating rates, increased downstream inventory replenishment, and a favorable supply-demand pattern. Bearish logic: High domestic coking coal production, high Mongolian coal imports, and intense futures market competition [6]