Core Viewpoint - The suspension of the small package tariff exemption policy by the U.S. government is expected to have significant short-term impacts on American consumers and long-term effects on inflation and the overall economy [1][4]. Group 1: Impact on Global Logistics - Multiple countries, including France, Germany, the UK, and Belgium, have paused sending packages to the U.S. due to unclear customs policies, leading to global logistics disruptions [2][3]. - The U.S. consumers may face delays in receiving packages and could incur tariffs of $80 or more [2]. Group 2: Details of the Policy Change - The U.S. government has expanded the suspension of the small package tariff exemption, which previously applied to China and Hong Kong, to all countries starting August 29 [3][4]. - The exemption threshold was raised from $200 in 1993 to $800 in 2016, but the recent policy change will result in most small packages being subject to tariffs [3]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The number of small package exemptions entering the U.S. has increased dramatically from approximately 139 million in 2015 to over 1.36 billion in 2024, reflecting the rise of e-commerce [4]. - The removal of the exemption is seen as a form of trade protectionism that could increase living costs for consumers and disrupt global supply chains [4].

Core Viewpoint - The tightening of "small value exemption" policies by various countries and organizations is causing significant disruption in the cross-border e-commerce industry, as these policies are crucial for facilitating international trade by allowing low-value goods to be imported without tax and formal customs procedures [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Cross-Border E-Commerce - The tightening of "small value exemption" policies is seen as a strategic move by some countries to curb the global trade competitiveness of low-value goods from other nations and to promote domestic supply chain recovery [1]. - In 2024, China's cross-border e-commerce imports and exports are projected to reach 2.63 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 10.8% and an increase of 1 trillion yuan since 2020, highlighting the sector's rapid development [1]. - China has established 165 comprehensive pilot zones for cross-border e-commerce, which have become significant platforms for the industry's growth, with over 120,000 trade entities participating [1]. Group 2: Challenges and Strategic Adjustments - The policy changes are compressing profit margins for low-priced goods that rely on tax exemptions, posing survival challenges for small and medium-sized sellers, particularly in sectors like clothing and electronics [2]. - Companies are advised to shift from "small batch direct mail" to "large batch overseas warehouse stocking" to adapt to the new logistics and tax cost structures [2]. - The focus on overseas warehouses is increasing, with companies like Cainiao operating over 40 warehouses across 18 countries, aiming to provide comprehensive supply chain services and support for businesses going abroad [2]. Group 3: Recommendations for Future Development - Cross-border e-commerce enterprises are encouraged to upgrade their supply chain models and enhance local operational capabilities to adapt to changing trade environments [3]. - Implementing diversified market strategies to reduce reliance on traditional single markets and leveraging national export tax rebate policies can help maintain competitive pricing [3]. - The industry is expected to accelerate its transition towards overseas warehouses and localized operations, supported by timely and effective policies [2][3].