Asia Insights Global Markets Research Economics - Global Asia: IEEPA invalidation = Near-term relief, medium-term fog Lower tariffs are a positive for Asia's growth in the near term, but trade policy uncertainty is back. Negotiations will proceed at a slower pace. State of tariff play After the US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) struck down President Trump's International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs in a 6-3 ruling, President Trump announced that he would impose a 10% temporary import surcharge (la ...

美国最高法院近日以6比3裁决特朗普动用"紧急权力"加征的全球关税违法，再次搅动全球经贸格局，立刻带来两个重大问题：对几十个国 家政府而言，过去一年辛辛苦苦和美国谈成的关税协定，还作数吗？对数以万计服务美国市场的进出口公司而言，已经缴纳的关税，能 否要回来？ 不论美国最高法院还是白宫，对这两个问题都没有给出明确回答。但工商界已经不愿再等，一场索要退税的官司大潮已涌向白宫。 图片来源：视觉中国 在最高法院作出裁决短短几日内，已有超过900家美国公司向美国国际贸易法院（CIT）提起诉讼，要求退回所缴关税。物流巨头FedEx在2月 23日率先起诉，要求"全额退还"，开市客（Costco）等大型零售商、多家苹果供应链公司，以及数百中小进口商随即跟进，预计索要退款总额 超过1300亿美元。 贸易专家表示，中国公司也可以通过几条途径加入"索要退税"的阵营，而他们的体量也远比外界想象得大。英国《金融时报》援引的一项数据 显示，合法注册为美国进口商——从而有资格获得退税——的中国公司，已经占到美国从中国进口总额的20%。 需要明确的是，美国最高法院并没有叫停美国政府征收的所有关税，而只是叫停了特朗普依据《紧急权力法》所征收的那 ...

谁能想到，连续六年稳坐全球汽车销量第一的"巨头"，居然在开年就迎来致命一击。 不到3年换2任社长 2月6日，丰田汽车在官网突然官宣一则重磅消息，直接引爆全球车圈，57岁的首席财务官近健太，将晋 升为社长兼首席执行官，4月1日正式走马上任。 现任社长佐藤恒治，转任副会长，同时兼任新设立的首席行业官，而会长丰田章男则继续留任，稳住大 局。 可能有人觉得，企业换帅很正常，但丰田这次换帅，藏着太多无奈和紧迫感，这距离上一次管理层大换 血，还不到3年时间。 当初，佐藤恒治从丰田章男手中接过社长一职，开启丰田管理层的代际交接，当时所有人都以为，佐藤 能带着丰田稳住全球龙头地位，没想到短短两年多，就被迫"让位"。 净利润直接暴跌43%，不到3年时间再度换帅，把CFO推上社长宝座，连夜开启"保命模式"。 更让人震惊的是，曾经铁板一块的日系"两田一产"，如今彻底分裂，有的勉强续命，有的直接摆烂，整 个日本汽车业都在瑟瑟发抖。 很多人疑惑，丰田明明卖得比去年还多，怎么反而亏得一塌糊涂，原来这背后藏着的美国关税陷阱，远 比我们想象的更复杂，那么，新社长临危受命，到底能不能救丰田于水火？ 丰田直言，这样调整，就是为了缩短决策链条，提 ...

这起贸易争端的导火索，其实是印度这些年为了推进所谓的"印度制造"而搞出的各种"土政策"。 在可再生能源和汽车这两个香饽饽领域，印度表现得像是个生怕自家孩子吃亏的家长，恨不得把所有进门的客人都收一遍重税，再把自家的孩子关在温室里 喂补药。 这不明摆着是给本土企业开小灶，顺便把进口产品挡在门外吗？ 如果说早期的政策还算含蓄，那到了2024年的"电动乘用车制造促进计划"，印度简直是把"保护主义"四个大字刻在了脑门上。 他们规定，想拿15%的低关税进口电动车？ 行，先得来印度建厂，而且第三年本土化率就要达到25%，第五年直接翻倍到 50%。 更绝的是，还给进口车设了个35000美元的最低身价限制，每年还只给8万辆的配额。 这种做法在国际贸易里有个专门的说法，叫"歧视性关税"，是明摆着破坏公平竞争的行为。 中国商务部的眼睛自然是揉不得沙子的。 在起诉文件中，中方直接点出了问题的核心：印度的这些措施完全取决于是否使用了国内产品，而不是进口投入品。 这不仅违反了WTO的国民待遇原则，还让中国那些辛辛苦苦搞研发、凭实力竞争的企业失去了公平的赛场。 这就好比大家都在跑道上赛跑，印度却在别人的跑道上挖了坑，还给自家选手配了代步车 ...

前言 2月25日，美国贸易代表格里尔的话震动世界！ 他声称对全球主要贸易伙伴加征15%以上关税，对中国不加；这一决定直接让欧盟、日本等长期盟友瞬间沦为被收割的对象。 美国为何对中国态度大转弯？周边国家会如何回应？ 关税大棒转向 就在2月25日那天，华盛顿的新闻发布会现场气氛有些古怪。 美国贸易代表格里尔站在麦克风前，抛出了一枚让全球震动的"炸弹"：美国要对大部分国家加征15%甚至更高的关税，但中国不在名单里。 这话一出，台下的记者们都愣住了，这画风变太快，让人反应不过来。 要知道，就在几天前，特朗普政府还叫嚣着要依据《1974年贸易法》第122条，对所有进口商品一刀切地征收10%的临时关税，那架势摆明了要跟全世界硬 刚。 但明眼人都看得出来，这是一种典型的"找台阶下"。就在不久前，美国官方还在叫嚣要全方位封堵中国，现在突然改口，这中间的反差太大，很难不让人怀 疑其中的猫腻。 实际上，这正是美国政府惯用的伎俩：在硬茬面前撞了南墙，转头就去捏软柿子，试图用这种方式来掩饰自己的无能。 这出"关税大戏"演到这儿，已经彻底变了味。从一开始的"对华施压"，变成了现在的"放过中国，收拾盟友"。这种戏剧性的转变，恰恰暴露了美 ...

经济日报记者 梁桐 日前，联合国贸发会议发布《全球贸易更新》报告，指出贸易政策变化正在重塑全球出口竞争格 局，尤其是美国最近的关税变化使得市场准入更加严格且不均衡，改变了出口商之间的竞争态势。 贸易措施变化深刻影响出口商竞争力。报告指出，关税调整、区域贸易协定和优惠计划等贸易措施 改变了国内外市场的需求条件和相对价格，影响了国家和企业的竞争地位，尤其是美国贸易措施的规模 和方向，对出口商在美国市场上的竞争力产生了显著影响。关税增加直接提高了进口商品的成本，使得 这些商品在国内市场上的价格上升，降低了其竞争力，当某国对特定商品实施高关税时，进口商可能会 转向从其他关税较低的国家进口，从而改变贸易流向。报告举例指出，由于美国对南非葡萄酒的关税大 幅上升，南非葡萄酒在美国市场上的价格相对其他葡萄酒出口国贵了约17个百分点，导致其竞争力显著 下降。同期，美国从意大利进口的大米关税降低，使得意大利大米在美国市场上的价格相对下降，增强 了其竞争力。 另外，区域贸易协定与优惠计划的深化和扩展可能进一步重塑全球贸易格局，促进区域内贸易自由 化，同时对非成员国构成竞争压力。非均匀的关税调整可能改变全球价值链的配置。高关税可能阻 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global market is currently in an observational phase with no clear consensus-driven trends. The short - term market is unlikely to have a unilateral trend, and the Fed's interest - rate cut narrative may be the next potential catalyst [2]. - The RMB exchange rate has shown strength. Short - term strategies for export and import enterprises are proposed, such as export enterprises locking in forward exchange settlement and import enterprises adopting a rolling purchase strategy [3][4]. - The stock index is expected to be bullish, while the bond market should focus on the Two Sessions' news [5][6]. - The container shipping market for the European route is expected to be weak in the short term, with a shift in trading logic [7][10]. - In the new energy market, the speculative sentiment of lithium carbonate is strong, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of weak supply and demand [12][15]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, aluminum and its related products are expected to fluctuate and consolidate, zinc is expected to fluctuate strongly, nickel - stainless steel is expected to fluctuate at a high level, tin is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and lead is expected to fluctuate and adjust [18][22][23][25][27][28]. - In the oil and fat feed market, oilseeds have strong expectations but weak reality, and oils are expected to improve [29][31]. - In the energy and oil and gas market, high - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure, low - sulfur fuel oil is strong, and asphalt prices may decline [34][35]. - In the precious metal market, platinum - palladium is expected to be in a long - term bull market, and gold - silver is strategically bullish in the short term [38][40][41][43]. - In the chemical market, pulp and offset paper are expected to fluctuate at a low level, pure benzene - styrene should pay attention to geopolitical trends, LPG is affected by geopolitics, PX - PTA is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, MEG - bottle chips are expected to fluctuate widely, methanol can consider a positive spread strategy, plastics PP are expected to fluctuate and decline, and rubber is expected to fluctuate in a range [45][47][50][52][56][59][61][64]. - In the black market, rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to be weak, iron ore may recover seasonally, coking coal and coke need to focus on the resumption rhythm, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese should wait for the hedging opportunity [79][80][81][84]. - In the agricultural and soft commodity market, the price of live pigs may continue to decline, cotton is recommended to go long on dips, sugar's rebound space is limited, eggs may fluctuate at a low level in the short term and rise in the medium term, apples are supported by delivery contradictions, dates are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and logs can be observed [85][88][91][92][100][102][103]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The indirect negotiation between Iran and the US ended with "significant progress". The US initial jobless claims were 212,000, the Bank of Korea maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.5%, and the Bank of Japan may consider raising interest rates [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore and off - shore RMB against the US dollar both broke through the 6.84 mark. Short - term strategies for export and import enterprises are provided [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to be bullish, with attention on the sustainability of trading volume [5]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is bearish, and attention should be paid to the news of the Two Sessions [5][6]. - **Container Shipping for European Route**: The market is weak, with a shift in trading logic from expecting price increases to facing price cuts in the off - season [7][10]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The speculative sentiment is strong, and upstream enterprises are recommended to hedge by shorting at high prices [12][14]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: They are in a situation of weak supply and demand. Short - term prices may break through the support level, and medium - term strategies are to go long at low prices [15][16]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and different trading strategies are proposed [18][21]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Different trading strategies are recommended according to different products [22][23]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback of tariff news [23][24]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: They are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to US tariff and Indonesian supply - side factors [25][26]. - **Tin**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the approval progress in Indonesia and the actual resumption progress in Myanmar [27]. - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and interval operations are recommended [28]. Oil and Fat Feed - **Oilseeds**: They have strong expectations but weak reality. After the market returns to fundamentals, shorting and reverse - spread opportunities can be considered [29][30]. - **Oils**: They are expected to improve, and long - position opportunities at low prices can be considered for palm oil [31][32]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure, and low - sulfur fuel oil is strong. The market shows a differentiated pattern [34]. - **Asphalt**: Prices may decline, especially when the demand after the Spring Festival is lower than expected [35]. Precious Metals - **Platinum - Palladium**: They are expected to be in a long - term bull market, but attention should be paid to various risk factors [38][40]. - **Gold - Silver**: They are strategically bullish in the short term, and long - position strategies on dips are recommended [41][43]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: They are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and interval trading strategies are recommended [45][46]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Attention should be paid to geopolitical trends, and long - position strategies on dips are recommended for styrene [47][49]. - **LPG**: It is mainly affected by geopolitics, and the short - term pricing is dominated by the Iran - US situation [50][51]. - **PX - PTA**: They are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and long - position strategies on dips and short - spread strategies for processing fees are recommended [52][55]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: They are expected to fluctuate widely, and short - selling is not recommended in the short term [56][58]. - **Methanol**: A positive spread strategy for the 5 - 9 contract can be considered, and attention should be paid to geopolitical factors [59][60]. - **Plastic PP**: They are expected to fluctuate and decline, and attention should be paid to the demand after the resumption of work by downstream enterprises and the inventory removal speed [61][63]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate in a range, and different trading strategies are recommended for different types of rubber [64][71]. - **Urea**: It is recommended to buy at a low price, and the market price is expected to rise steadily [72]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Soda ash is expected to fluctuate with limited price movement, and glass prices are restricted by supply recovery and high inventory in the middle - stream [74][75]. - **Propylene**: It is affected by cost and supply - demand factors, and the market is still supported fundamentally [76][77]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to be weak, and although the market may hype up expectations near the Two Sessions, the fundamentals are still weak [79]. - **Iron Ore**: It may recover seasonally, and low - buying opportunities or positive - spread strategies can be considered at low valuations [79][80]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They need to focus on the resumption rhythm of mines and steel mills after the Spring Festival, and the price may face short - term supply - demand mismatch or downward pressure [81][83]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are affected by manganese ore news, and hedging opportunities after the emotional release can be waited for [84]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The price is expected to continue to decline, and a sell - call option strategy is proposed [85][87]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand and US trade policy [88][90]. - **Sugar**: The rebound space is limited, although there is some upward driving force [91]. - **Eggs**: They may fluctuate at a low level in the short term and rise in the medium term [92][93]. - **Apples**: The short - term demand is weak after the Spring Festival, but the delivery contradiction provides support [100][101]. - **Dates**: They are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the post - festival replenishment demand [102]. - **Logs**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and an observation strategy is recommended [103].

2月24日，美国海关依据相关行政令，停止征收《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）项下加征的关税， 同时转而依据《1974年贸易法》第122条对所有贸易伙伴加征进口附加费。这一政策转向标志着美国贸 易政策工具的重大调整，从"紧急状态"路径回归传统贸易法框架，但其本质仍是单边主义关税措施的延 续。此次调整会对主要经济体产生差异化影响。 美国此次关税政策调整并非简单的"减税"行为，而是法律适用路径的转换。此前，美方依据IEEPA对输 美商品加征所谓"芬太尼关税"和"对等关税"，这一路径因缺乏明确的国会授权而面临法律挑战。2月20 日，美国最高法院裁定，特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》实施的相关大规模关税措施缺乏明确 法律授权。特朗普政府转而依据《1974年贸易法》第122条加征关税，该条款授权总统在国际收支失衡 或汇率操纵等情况下征收最高15%的进口附加费，为期不超过150天，且可延长。这一路径虽同样具有 单边色彩，但相较IEEPA的"紧急状态"标签，在国际法层面更具形式合法性，也为美国保留了更大的政 策灵活性。另外，特朗普政府可能会加速启动"301调查"和"232调查"，全球贸易仍面临较大的不确定 性。 美国 ...

政策环境和竞争力变动影响贸易规律。报告指出，分化的关税变化及其导致的出口竞争力变动，将对国 际贸易规律产生直观影响。其中，美国等主要经济体的关税结构正从相对统一向差异化转变。例如，美 国平均适用关税上升了近15个百分点，且不同供应商之间的关税差异显著扩大。这种趋势可能导致全球 贸易流向的重新分配，进口商倾向于从关税较低的国家采购商品，从而改变传统贸易模式。 日前，联合国贸发会议发布《全球贸易更新》报告，指出贸易政策变化正在重塑全球出口竞争格局，尤 其是美国最近的关税变化使得市场准入更加严格且不均衡，改变了出口商之间的竞争态势。 另外，区域贸易协定与优惠计划的深化和扩展可能进一步重塑全球贸易格局，促进区域内贸易自由化， 同时对非成员国构成竞争压力。非均匀的关税调整可能改变全球价值链的配置。高关税可能阻碍中间产 品的进口，促使企业将生产环节转移至关税较低的国家，从而影响全球生产网络的布局。 贸易措施变化深刻影响出口商竞争力。报告指出，关税调整、区域贸易协定和优惠计划等贸易措施改变 了国内外市场的需求条件和相对价格，影响了国家和企业的竞争地位，尤其是美国贸易措施的规模和方 向，对出口商在美国市场上的竞争力产生了显著 ...

在南非约翰内斯堡生鲜产品市场，工作人员使用叉车将核果运往货车。（新华社发） 日前，联合国贸发会议发布《全球贸易更新》报告，指出贸易政策变化正在重塑全球出口竞争格局，尤其是 美国最近的关税变化使得市场准入更加严格且不均衡，改变了出口商之间的竞争态势。 贸易措施变化深刻影响出口商竞争力。报告指出，关税调整、区域贸易协定和优惠计划等贸易措施改变了国 内外市场的需求条件和相对价格，影响了国家和企业的竞争地位，尤其是美国贸易措施的规模和方向，对出 口商在美国市场上的竞争力产生了显著影响。关税增加直接提高了进口商品的成本，使得这些商品在国内市 场上的价格上升，降低了其竞争力，当某国对特定商品实施高关税时，进口商可能会转向从其他关税较低的 国家进口，从而改变贸易流向。报告举例指出，由于美国对南非葡萄酒的关税大幅上升，南非葡萄酒在美国 市场上的价格相对其他葡萄酒出口国贵了约17个百分点，导致其竞争力显著下降。同期，美国从意大利进口 的大米关税降低，使得意大利大米在美国市场上的价格相对下降，增强了其竞争力。 区域贸易协定通常包含关税减免条款，使得成员国之间的商品贸易更加自由，降低了交易成本。区域贸易协 定还往往包括统一的技术标 ...