Core Insights - Wheat prices are experiencing a downward trend across major exchanges, influenced by increased production estimates from the USDA [1][2] Production and Supply - The USDA reported total wheat production at 1.984 billion bushels (bbu), exceeding trade expectations by 63 million bushels (mbu) and surpassing the August Crop Production report by 57 mbu [2] - Winter wheat production is estimated at 1.402 bbu, which is 50 mbu larger than anticipated, with hard red winter (HRW) at 804 mbu, soft red winter (SRW) at 353 mbu, and white winter at 244 mbu [2] - Spring wheat production is pegged at 497 mbu, with durum wheat at 86 mbu [2] Market Activity - Wheat futures across the three exchanges have seen declines, with CBT soft red wheat futures down 10 to 12 cents, and KC HRW futures down 10 to 11 cents [1] - Preliminary open interest rose significantly, indicating net new selling, with CBT showing an increase of 10,194 contracts and KC HRW up by 7,587 contracts [1] Stock Levels - The USDA's Grain Stocks report indicated wheat stocks at 2.12 bbu as of September 1, which is 66 mbu above analyst expectations and 128 mbu larger than the same date in 2024 [3] International Developments - Taiwan has issued a tender for 80,550 metric tons (MT) of US wheat, with a submission deadline set for Thursday [3] - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates Argentine wheat production for 2025/26 at 22 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of 1.5 MMT from previous estimates [4] - The European Commission reported EU wheat exports since July 1 at 4.37 MMT, down from 6.36 MMT during the same period last year [4]