Group 1 - The main contract for strong wheat futures remains unchanged at 3050.00 yuan as of November 5 [1] - The European Union's barley export volume for the 2025/26 year is 3.76 million tons, compared to 1.73 million tons last year [2] - The EU's soft wheat export volume for the 2025/26 year is 8.03 million tons, slightly down from 8.32 million tons last year [2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting regarding the autumn sowing in the Huang-Huai-Hai region, which accounts for about 90% of the national wheat production [2] - Continuous rainy weather has delayed sowing and poses challenges for the safe overwintering of winter wheat [2] - The USDA reported that the U.S. wheat export inspection volume for the week ending October 30, 2025, was 350,293 tons, up from a revised 269,420 tons the previous week [2] - Cumulative U.S. wheat export inspection volume for the current crop year is 11.83 million tons, compared to 9.81 million tons during the same period last year [2]

Core Insights - Wheat prices are experiencing a downward trend across major exchanges, influenced by increased production estimates from the USDA [1][2] Production and Supply - The USDA reported total wheat production at 1.984 billion bushels (bbu), exceeding trade expectations by 63 million bushels (mbu) and surpassing the August Crop Production report by 57 mbu [2] - Winter wheat production is estimated at 1.402 bbu, which is 50 mbu larger than anticipated, with hard red winter (HRW) at 804 mbu, soft red winter (SRW) at 353 mbu, and white winter at 244 mbu [2] - Spring wheat production is pegged at 497 mbu, with durum wheat at 86 mbu [2] Market Activity - Wheat futures across the three exchanges have seen declines, with CBT soft red wheat futures down 10 to 12 cents, and KC HRW futures down 10 to 11 cents [1] - Preliminary open interest rose significantly, indicating net new selling, with CBT showing an increase of 10,194 contracts and KC HRW up by 7,587 contracts [1] Stock Levels - The USDA's Grain Stocks report indicated wheat stocks at 2.12 bbu as of September 1, which is 66 mbu above analyst expectations and 128 mbu larger than the same date in 2024 [3] International Developments - Taiwan has issued a tender for 80,550 metric tons (MT) of US wheat, with a submission deadline set for Thursday [3] - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates Argentine wheat production for 2025/26 at 22 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of 1.5 MMT from previous estimates [4] - The European Commission reported EU wheat exports since July 1 at 4.37 MMT, down from 6.36 MMT during the same period last year [4]

Core Insights - The strong wheat futures contract remains unchanged at 3050.00 yuan as of the latest report [1] Market Insights - As of August 31, the EU's soft wheat export volume for the 2025/26 season is 2.57 million tons, a decrease of 44% compared to the same period last year [2] - Ukraine's largest agricultural producer alliance, UAC, reports that the country has nearly completed its 2025 wheat harvest, with August wheat exports rising to 1.89 million tons and September exports expected to reach at least 1.7 million tons. The total wheat exports in July were 732,800 tons [2] - Sovecon, a grain consulting company, has raised its forecast for Russia's 2025-2026 wheat exports from 43.3 million tons to 43.7 million tons due to improved crop prospects [2] - The USDA's weekly crop progress report indicates that as of August 31, the U.S. spring wheat harvest rate is at 67%, below the market expectation of 70% [2] - The USDA data shows that as of the week ending August 28, the U.S. wheat export inspection volume was 802,780 tons, revised from the previous week's 1,020,254 tons. The cumulative wheat export inspection volume for the current crop year is 6.64 million tons, compared to 5.80 million tons in the same period last year [2]