Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The rebound of urea prices is due to improved agricultural demand and export quotas, but its sustainability remains to be verified. The short - term price center of urea has shifted upward, and the short - term range of the 01 contract is 1600 - 1700 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to order receipt and inventory reduction of high - level inventories [3]. Summary by Directory Market Changes - The price of urea has stabilized and rebounded. On November 7, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1667 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton from last week, a 2.58% increase. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1594 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from last week, a 1.59% increase [3][4]. - The main - contract basis of urea has weakened. On November 7, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 73 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (-78) - (-61) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of urea has strengthened. On November 7, the 1 - 5 spread was - 67 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (-86) - (-67) yuan/ton [3][7]. Fundamental Changes Supply - The operating load rate of Chinese urea enterprises is 83.55%, up 2.61 percentage points from last week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises is 72.89%, up 2.29 percentage points from last week, and the daily average output of urea is 18.35 tons. Next week, some overhauled units in Shanxi, Xinjiang, and Ningxia will resume production, and new production capacity in Xinjiang is planned to be put into operation, with no units scheduled for overhaul, so supply is expected to continue to increase [3][10]. Cost - The anthracite market continues to be strong. As of November 6, the含税 price of washed anthracite small lumps (S0.4 - 0.5) in Jincheng, Shanxi is 880 - 950 yuan/ton, with the closing price up 30 yuan/ton from the same period last week [3][13]. Demand - The autumn harvest and sowing are in progress. Northern winter wheat is in the concentrated sowing period, and late rice in the South is in the large - scale harvesting stage. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 31.04%, remaining flat from last week. The inventory of compound fertilizers is 70.11 tons, down 0.33 tons from last week. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has increased, and the speed of finished - product inventory reduction has slowed down. Other industrial demands such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin have strengthened [3][18][22]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory is 134.2 tons, up 2.5 tons from last week, changing from inventory reduction to inventory accumulation. Urea port inventory is 20.5 tons, down 1.3 tons from last week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts is 4585, equivalent to 9.17 tons, an increase of 3130 from last week [3][28]. Key Points of Attention - The operating conditions of compound fertilizer enterprises, the reduction and overhaul of urea units, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [3]

埃及5大尿素工厂突遭停产！市场预期印度或将在2025年宣布更多进口招标，尿素价格能否反弹走高？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...