Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Urea prices opened high and closed low, then rallied in the afternoon, with an intraday increase of nearly 4%. The market is expected to be bullish in the short - term, mainly due to the positive impact of the China - India friendly talks and the expected increase in India's urea export quota. However, the high inventory level of urea factories restricts the upward space of urea prices [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened high and closed low, then rallied in the afternoon, with an intraday increase of nearly 4%. The upstream factory's shipment atmosphere improved, and the spot trading atmosphere is expected to improve tomorrow. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is in the range of 1680 - 1710 yuan/ton. The overall domestic demand is insufficient, and the urea factory's inventory is expected to continue to increase. The market is expected to be bullish in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the Indian tender in September [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures**: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1756 yuan/ton, closed at 1817 yuan/ton, with a gain of 3.53%. The trading volume increased by 29,238 lots to 213,033 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 14,980 lots, and short positions increased by 22,768 lots. Some futures companies' net long and net short positions changed [2][3] - **Spot**: The upstream factory's quotes rose steadily. Affected by the futures turning positive, the upstream factory's shipment atmosphere improved. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is in the range of 1680 - 1710 yuan/ton [6] Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotes decreased, and the futures closing price increased. Based on Shandong, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, entering the risk - free arbitrage range, with the January contract basis at - 77 yuan/ton (- 63 yuan/ton) [7] - **Supply Data**: On August 19, 2025, the national daily urea output was 194,200 tons, the same as yesterday, with an operating rate of 82.69% [11]