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尿素市场进入“涨有顶、跌有底”局面
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-11-12 04:12
Core Viewpoint - The domestic urea market has shown a trend of initial decline followed by a rise in November, contrasting with the futures price which has experienced a rise followed by a decline [1] Group 1: Market Trends - As of November 11, the average price of urea in the domestic market was 1644.45 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.11% from the previous working day [1] - The urea futures market has seen the main contract price decline for three consecutive trading days, although it still maintains an increase of over 1% for the month [1] Group 2: Production and Inventory - The average daily production of urea in China has reached approximately 200,000 tons in November, marking an increase of 11.1% compared to the same period last year [2] - As of November 6, the inventory of urea production enterprises in China was 1.342 million tons, which is a decrease of about 3.9% compared to the previous month but an increase of approximately 9.9% year-on-year [1][2] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Currently, the demand is primarily driven by agricultural reserve fertilizer procurement, with industrial demand supported by higher operational rates of compound fertilizer enterprises, which have reached nearly 40% [2] - Despite being in the agricultural off-season, there is still support for future demand due to reserve needs, leading to a competitive supply-demand dynamic [2]