Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 9 日星期四 重要事项: 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.09.05」 尿素市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场延续低位波动，截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂下跌至1650- 1700元/吨，均价环比下跌5元/吨。 行情展望：近期部分新增装置检修，暂无停车企业装置恢复，国内尿素日产量减少，下周预计3家 企业计划停车，2-4家停车企业恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，产量变动的幅度有限。国 内农业需求处于季节性淡季，苏皖农业备肥有小幅增加趋势。工业复合肥因前期原料有一定量的 储备，短期对原料尿素的补仓推进或有下降，下周随着前期停车装置陆续恢复提升负荷，复合肥 产能利用率陆续回升。国内需求推进缓慢，部分企业出货不及预期，本周国内尿素企业库存涨跌 不一，整体库存水平小幅增加，重大活动结束后，下游工业开工有提升预期，加之尿素阶段性集 港出口，尿素企业库存有下降趋势。 策略建议： UR2601合约短线预计在1700-1760区 ...

Industry Overview - The average daily production of urea in the past week was 192,700 tons, showing a month-on-month decrease but a year-on-year increase [1] - As of September 4, urea prices were reported at 1,650 CNY/ton in Gansu and 1,670 CNY/ton for medium-sized granules in Shandong [1] - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises reached 1,085,800 tons, exceeding last week's expectations, with port sample inventory at 600,000 tons, also above previous expectations [1] Market Sentiment - According to Guotai Junan Futures, there has been a relaxation in port inspections, leading to an increase in export volumes. However, domestic urea production facilities are undergoing significant maintenance, resulting in a noticeable decline in operating rates [2] - The agricultural sector remains in the off-season, and industrial demand is increasing slowly. The market is experiencing negative feedback due to unmet expectations from recent bidding announcements, leading to a short-term bearish outlook for urea prices, with a reference range of 1,680-1,780 CNY/ton [2] Production and Demand Dynamics - Recent maintenance of some new production facilities has led to a slight decrease in domestic urea production. This week, two companies plan to halt production while three others are resuming operations [3] - Agricultural demand is in a seasonal lull, although there is a slight increase in fertilizer preparation in Jiangsu and Anhui provinces. Industrial compound fertilizer purchases are primarily for stock replenishment, and the overall operating rate of enterprises has decreased [3] - Despite limited adjustments in operating rates due to policy impacts, there is an expectation of improvement starting from the 4th of the month. Domestic demand is progressing slowly, with some companies experiencing lower-than-expected shipments [3] - Overall, the inventory levels of domestic urea enterprises have shown mixed trends, with a slight overall increase. Following major events, there is an anticipated rise in downstream industrial operations, coupled with a phase of urea exports, suggesting a potential decrease in urea enterprise inventories [3] - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,700-1,760 CNY/ton in the short term [3]

Core Viewpoint - The urea market is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with both spot and futures prices showing weakness due to low demand and lack of supportive factors in the market [4][5]. Group 1: Urea Price Index and Market Trends - As of August 26, the urea small particle price index is 1768.18, down 7.27 from the previous day, reflecting a 0.41% decrease month-on-month and a 16.11% decrease year-on-year [1]. - The urea futures market shows a slight decline, with the UR2601 contract closing at 1737, down 9 from the previous trading day's settlement price, indicating a 0.52% decrease [4]. Group 2: Spot Market Analysis - The domestic urea market is operating weakly, with some regions experiencing slight price reductions. The overall sentiment remains cautious, and prices are likely to continue to decline [5]. - Specific regional prices as of August 26 include: Northeast at 1720-1750 CNY/ton, East China at 1690-1720 CNY/ton, and North China at 1610-1760 CNY/ton [6][7]. Group 3: Regional Price Movements - In the Northeast, prices fell to 1730 CNY/ton in Jilin and 1740 CNY/ton in Liaoning, while in North China, prices remained stable at 1610 CNY/ton in Shanxi [6]. - In South China, the price in Guangdong is around 1860-1880 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease from the previous working day [7].

尿素产业日报 2025-08-25 动。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1745 | -3 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -44 | -1 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 222940 | 13639 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -37480 | -2983 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 5123 | 1050 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1770 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1750 | -10 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1740 | -20 山东(日,元/吨) | 1700 | -40 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1760 | -20 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 1 | 5 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 450 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 450 | 0 | | 产业情况 | ...

Report Overview - The report is a weekly market report on the urea market, released by Ruida Futures Research Institute on August 15, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea market showed a weak downward trend this week. With some plant restarts, the daily output of urea increased slightly. Domestic agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and industrial demand is tepid. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to rise, and it is expected to keep increasing in the short term. The report suggests trading the UR2601 contract in the range of 1700 - 1770 yuan [6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Strategy Recommendation**: Trade the UR2601 contract in the 1700 - 1770 yuan range [6] - **Market Review**: The domestic urea market declined weakly this week. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong dropped to 1680 - 1730 yuan/ton, with the average price down 55 yuan/ton week - on - week [7] - **Market Outlook**: Some plants restarted, increasing the daily output of urea. Next week, 1 - 2 enterprises are planned to stop production while 3 - 5 are expected to resume. Considering potential short - term breakdowns, output is likely to increase. Agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and industrial demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is limited. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to rise and is expected to keep rising in the short term [7] 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 0.8% [11] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of August 15, the UR 9 - 1 spread was - 16 [15] - **Position Analysis**: Not elaborated in the summary part - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 15, there were 3573 warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea, an increase of 200 from last week [23] Spot Market - **Domestic Price**: As of August 14, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1720 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan), and in Jiangsu was 1730 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan) [28] - **Foreign Price**: As of August 14, the FOB price of urea in China was 460 US dollars/ton, an increase of 50 US dollars/ton from last week [32] - **Basis**: As of August 14, the urea basis was - 6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week [35] 3. Industry Chain Analysis Upstream - **Coal and Gas Prices**: As of August 13, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of August 14, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.85 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.15 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [39] Industry - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: As of August 14, the output of Chinese urea producers was 134.86 million tons, an increase of 2.01 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.51%. The capacity utilization rate was 83.22%, an increase of 1.24% from the previous period [42] - **Inventory**: As of August 14, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 46.4 million tons, a decrease of 1.9 million tons week - on - week, a decline of 3.93%. As of August 13, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 95.74 million tons, an increase of 6.98 million tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 7.86% [45] - **Export**: In June 2025, urea exports were 66,240.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2618.13%. The average export price was 366.28 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4662.05% [48] Downstream - **Compound Fertilizer and Melamine**: As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 43.48%, a week - on - week increase of 1.98 percentage points. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 49.82%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points from last week [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic urea market maintains a stable and slightly stronger trend, with enterprise quotes increasing slightly by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. Although the new order trading atmosphere has weakened and downstream procurement has become more cautious, most enterprises have controllable inventory pressure supported by pending orders, and short - term quotes remain firm. Market sentiment is significantly boosted by the macro - level, but the actual demand follow - up will be the key factor determining the sustainability of the market. Overall, the urea market is viewed as oscillating, with positives mainly from the macro and cost sides and negatives from weak domestic demand [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost - The prices of coking coal, anthracite small pieces, and natural gas remained unchanged at 470 yuan, 890 yuan, and 4050 yuan respectively on August 13, 2025, compared to the previous day [1] Price - Domestic urea prices in different regions showed mixed trends on August 13, 2025. Prices in Shandong increased by 20 yuan to 1730 yuan, while prices in Shanxi decreased by 10 yuan to 1620 yuan. International prices such as China FOB, Middle East FOB, Southeast Asia CFR, and Brazil CFR remained unchanged [1] Inventory - Factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream sample inventory all remained unchanged at 88.76, 48.30, and 1700 respectively on August 13, 2025, compared to the previous day [1] Supply - The 5 - day production, overall urea production start - up rate, coal - based start - up rate, and gas - based start - up rate remained unchanged on August 13, 2025, compared to the previous day. The gas - based start - up rate decreased by 0.00 [1] Demand - Indicators such as pending orders, compound fertilizer start - up rate, melamine start - up rate, and formaldehyde start - up rate all remained unchanged on August 13, 2025, compared to the previous day [1] Profit - Profits from fixed - bed, coal - water slurry, and some other production methods remained unchanged on August 13, 2025, compared to the previous day. The profit from natural gas, liquid ammonia decreased by 60 yuan [1] Associated Products - The prices of compound fertilizer and melamine remained unchanged at 2500 yuan and 5180 yuan respectively on August 13, 2025, compared to the previous day. The price of methanol increased by 5 yuan to 2255 yuan [1] Futures - The settlement price of urea futures increased by 2 yuan to 1728 yuan on August 13, 2025, compared to the previous day. The basis increased by 11 yuan to 14 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 9600 to 81594, and the open interest decreased by 16902 to 74908. The warehouse receipt volume remained unchanged [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic urea market in China experienced a trend of rising and then falling prices in August, influenced by various news factors, with a return to rational market transactions following export news [1] Market Analysis - As of August 11, the average price of urea in China was 1773.4 yuan per ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.69% compared to August 1 and an 18.24% year-on-year decline [1] - The expectation of a relaxed supply in the market continues, while demand lacks significant support, indicating that the market is likely to remain under pressure in the short term without any substantial positive news [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The urea market is considered to be in an overall oscillating state, with macro and cost factors being positive, while weak domestic demand is negative [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost - The price of coking coal on August 12, 2025, was 470.00, unchanged from the previous day; the price of anthracite small pieces was 890.00, also unchanged; the price of natural gas decreased by 50.00 to 4050.00 [1] Price - Mainstream urea enterprise prices in key regions continued to decline, with low - end factory prices of 1660 - 1670 yuan/ton seeing increased transactions. The short - term market is expected to stabilize and the low - end prices may rise slightly. The market needs more positive factors such as export news or macro - sentiment boost [1] Inventory - Factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream sample inventory remained unchanged at 88.76, 48.30, and 1700.00 respectively on August 12, 2025 [1] Supply - Urea daily production was 192,100.00, and the overall start - up rate was 82.98%, with coal - based at 83.66% and gas - based at 76.52%, all remaining unchanged [1] Demand - The start - up rates of compound fertilizer, melamine, and formaldehyde remained unchanged at 41.50, 61.10, and 41.53 respectively [1] Profit - The profit of fixed - bed was - 167.00, water - coal slurry was 282.00, and natural gas was - 185.00, all unchanged. The price of liquid ammonia decreased by 20.00 to 2180.00 [1] Associated Products - The price of compound fertilizer was 2500.00, unchanged; melamine increased by 30.00 to 5180.00; and something (the text seems incomplete here) increased by 20.00 to 2250.00 [1] Futures - The settlement price increased by 8.00 to 1726.00, the basis decreased by 15.00 to 3.00, the increase rate was 1.67%. The trading volume decreased by 10,414.00 to 91,194.00, the open interest decreased by 17,264.00 to 91,810.00, and the warehouse receipt volume increased by 200.00 to 3823.00 [1]

「 2025.08.01」 尿素市场周报 瑞达期货研究院 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场弱势下行，截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂下跌至1720-1810元/ 吨，均价环比下跌60元/吨。 行情展望：近期部分装置检修结束，国内尿素日产量小幅增加，下周可能3家企业装置计划停车， 2-3家停车企业恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，产量减少的概率较大。国内农业需求处于 季节性淡季，需求继续走弱。当前逐步进入秋季肥生产阶段，复合肥工业需求逢低适当采购，复 合肥企业开工率稳中有升但开工提升缓慢，对尿素刚需偏少，下游工厂多逢低少量采购为主。国 内尿素需求走弱，出口对接不及预期，工厂新单成交放缓，出货流向同步减少，本周国内尿素企 业库存增加，虽然复合肥适当补仓但支撑有限，短期尿素企业库存仍有累库趋势。 策略建议： UR2509合约短线建议在1690-1770区间交易。 「 期货市场情况」 尿素期货价格走势 ...