目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： UR2605合约短线预计在1770-1830区间波动。 瑞达期货研究院 「 2026.01.30」 尿素市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 3 4 「 期货市场情况」 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场呈现冲高回落，截止周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂涨至1740-1780元/ 吨，均价环比上涨45元/吨。本周期国内尿素企业陆续进入春节收单阶段，农业需求的跟进以及市 场情绪的带动，尿素工厂收单较为顺利，并未出现明显降价吸单现象，下游跟单积极性尚可。 行情展望：前期部分检修装置恢复，带动国内尿素产量增加，下周暂无企业装置计划停车，1-3家 停车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，预计产量增幅有限。近期苏皖以及其 他区域春节前农业备肥需求持续推进，但增量有限。工业领域维持刚需采购，复合肥本周产能利 用率环比下滑，部分地区受到环保预警等影响，装置出现降负荷情况，工业需求对尿素支持减弱。 本周国内尿素企业库存波动较小， ...

| | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 2012 31号 | | 【GE 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 尿素数据日报 | | | | | 国贸财货研究院 | | 期货从业号:F3054270 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈三州 | | 投资咨询证号:Z0015946 | | | 指标 | 2026/01/26 | 2026/01/23 | 涨跌值 | 行情评述 | | | 沫煤 | 500. 00 | 500. 00 | 0. 00 | | | 成本 | 无烟小块 | 920.00 | 920. 00 | 0.00 | | | | 天然气 | 3870. 00 | 3850.00 | 20. 00 | | | | 河南 | 1740.00 | 1740.00 | 0.00 | | | | 河北 | 1760.00 | 1750.00 | 10. 00 | 本周工业复合肥开工率逐渐提升,但因 | | | 安徽 | 1750.00 | 1750.00 | 0.00 | 农业需求下降明显,且尿素供应持续高 | | | ...

上周，国内尿素行情以弱势盘整为主，后期部分工厂成交略有好转，报价小幅反弹，但国内尿素市场需 求活跃度不高，仅以下游逢低补货为主，尿素企业日产量稳定在20万吨以上。上周，复合肥工厂开工率 小幅提升，其对于尿素原料仍维持刚需采购，预计随着春节的逐步临近，下游复合肥工厂开工负荷将呈 下降趋势，其他下游工厂按需采购为主，需求形势基本稳定。 01 价格方面 供应方面，上周国内尿素日产量继续较前周提升，国内尿素平均日产量在20.3万吨，较前周平均日产量 增加约0.3万吨，平均开工率约为86.1%。1月23日，国内尿素日产量约为20.53万吨，开工率约为 86.97%。 上周，国内尿素行情先抑后扬，整体波幅空间不大，下游以逢低采购为主。至上周五，北方（不含山 西、东北及西北）尿素工厂出厂价在1680~1720元（吨价，下同）；山西工厂低端价格在1610元左右； 新疆尿素工厂价格稳中下滑，疆内出厂报价在1310~1530元；江苏及安徽中小颗粒尿素工厂出厂价在 1700~1800元，高端报价在江苏省内；两广地区尿素市场价在1830~1870元，较上周同期下滑10元。上 周，国内尿素市场批发价在1750~1850元。 上周，国内 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry in the energy and chemical sector is "oscillation" [1] 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - The urea price is expected to oscillate, with the 05 contract reference range between 1720 - 1820 yuan/ton. The market is advised to take a wait - and - see approach [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, the price of the urea main contract 2605 dropped 26 yuan to 1772 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China mainstream area fell 10 yuan to 1760 yuan/ton. Long - position holdings decreased by 4882 lots to 238,400 lots, and short - position holdings decreased by 5056 lots to 255,200 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily urea production in the industry is 202,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous workday and 279,000 tons more than the same period last year. The current开工率 is 85.8%, a 4.5% increase from 81.2% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 986,100 tons, a decrease of 36,100 tons from last week, a 3.53% month - on - month decrease. The sample inventory at urea ports is 134,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6,000 tons [1] - Demand: The compound fertilizer开工率 is 40.1%, a month - on - month increase of 2.9%, and the melamine开工率 is 54.3%, a month - on - month increase of 6.7% [1] - Tender: On January 2nd, India's NFL held a urea import tender, receiving 26 suppliers with a total bid volume of 3.62 million tons, including 1.59 million tons on the east coast and 2.02 million tons on the west coast. The lowest bids were from Koch, at CFR426.8 dollars/ton on the east coast and 424.8 dollars/ton on the west coast [1] - Import and Export: In November 2025, urea imports were 197.77 tons, a 135.71% month - on - month increase; the average import price was 1107.41 dollars/ton, a 278.44% month - on - month increase. In the same month, urea exports were 601,800 tons, a 49.95% month - on - month decrease; the average export price was 424.76 dollars/ton, a 50.80% month - on - month decrease [1] - Oil Price: Geopolitical tensions in Iran and other regions have eased, reducing potential supply risks and causing international oil prices to fall. The NYMEX crude oil futures were closed for the US Martin Luther King Memorial Day holiday with no settlement price. The ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract fell 0.19 dollars to 63.94 dollars/barrel, a 0.30% month - on - month decrease. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2603 contract rose 2.9 to 442.6 yuan/barrel, and then fell 2.3 to 440.3 yuan/barrel at night [1] Market Logic - Last week, the urea enterprise inventory dropped below 1 million tons. The lowest factory - gate price of mainstream urea factories yesterday was between 1690 - 1700 yuan/ton. New orders for urea factories have significantly weakened this week, but most prices remain stable due to the support of pending orders. Market transaction resistance has increased, leading to the oscillation of urea prices [1] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to take a wait - and - see approach [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply of urea is expected to increase as maintenance devices have复产 plans and daily output is set to rise, but demand remains supported. With agricultural fertilizer procurement and increased raw - material replenishment in the compound fertilizer industry, and the inventory level of urea enterprises being low compared to the same period last year, the price of urea will fluctuate within the range of 1,730 - 1,830 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - Urea futures prices continued to rise at the beginning of the week and declined slightly at the end. On January 16, the closing price of the urea 2605 contract was 1,791 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous week, a 0.79% increase. The spot price in the Henan market averaged 1,744 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous week, a 0.81% increase [4][7]. - The basis of the main urea contract weakened first and then strengthened. On January 16, the main basis in the Henan market was - 47 yuan/ton, with a weekly range of (-86) - (-47) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of urea fluctuated narrowly, at 28 yuan/ton on January 16, with a weekly range of 20 - 30 yuan/ton [4][11]. Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: The operating load rate of urea in China was 83.59%, down 1.15 percentage points from the previous week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 54.18%, up 2.61 percentage points from the previous week. The daily output of urea was 20.07 tons. Some devices in Xinjiang, Shandong, Yunnan, and Henan were under maintenance or reduced production, while some in Sichuan and Xinjiang resumed production. Maintenance devices in Gansu, Yunnan, and Sichuan are planned to resume next week, indicating an expected increase in supply [4][13]. - **Cost**: The price of anthracite coal was slightly stronger. As of January 15, the含税 price of washed anthracite small lumps in Jincheng, Shanxi (S0.4 - 0.5) was 850 - 900 yuan/ton, with the closing - price center up 5 yuan/ton from the previous week [4][17]. - **Profit**: The gross profit margin of coal - based urea was 0.33%, and that of gas - based urea was - 10.64%. The mainstream price of the urea market increased, leading to an increase in production profit [17]. - **Demand**: - The average advance receipt of major urea producers was 5.9 days, and the weekly sales - to - production ratio of urea enterprises was 98.8%. Agricultural demand was mainly for reserve procurement, and industrial demand was stable overall [18][19]. - The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 40.08%, up 2.91 percentage points from the previous week. The inventory of compound fertilizers was 71.18 tons, up 1.66 percentage points from the previous week. The compound fertilizer market was in the stage of concentrated winter - storage fertilizer sales, and raw - material inventory was replenished at appropriate prices [4][23]. - The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 54.29%, up 3.08 percentage points from the previous week, with a weekly output of 29,000 tons. Although a device of Shandong Heli Tai had a temporary short - stop maintenance and Hubei Huaqiang resumed production, the overall operating load rate of domestic melamine enterprises is expected to continue to increase next week [26]. - The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores decreased, weakening the demand support for the panel market [27]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory was 84 tons, down 29,000 tons from the previous week and 69 tons less than the same period last year. Urea port inventory was 27.2 tons, down 6,000 tons from the previous week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 13,355, totaling 267,100 tons, an increase of 4,280 receipts (85,600 tons) compared to the same period last year [4][30]. Key Points of Attention - The operating conditions of compound fertilizer enterprises, the reduction and maintenance of urea devices, export policies, and coal - price fluctuations [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea market showed a narrow - range fluctuation. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong remained unchanged compared to last week. As the urea price rises, downstream follow - up has slowed down [6]. - Some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, increasing domestic urea production. Next week, no enterprise devices are planned to stop, and 3 - 5 stopped devices may resume. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the change in production is expected to be limited [6]. - The agricultural demand is in the traditional off - season, with only limited follow - up in the reserve demand for green - turning fertilizers in some local areas. The industrial sector maintains rigid - demand procurement, and the continuous progress of the compound fertilizer industry provides support for urea. Some urea enterprises have balanced production and sales, and some have accelerated their shipment speed. However, as the price rises, the downstream chasing trend may slow down, and the short - term de - stocking amplitude of urea enterprises is expected to be limited [6]. - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1750 - 1830 in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic urea market had a narrow - range fluctuation this week. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong was 1720 - 1760 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. Downstream follow - up slowed as the price rose [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Production is expected to change little due to resumed devices and possible short - term failures. Agricultural demand is in the off - season with limited increase, and industrial demand maintains rigid procurement. The compound fertilizer industry supports urea. Some enterprises' inventory decreased this week, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1750 - 1830 in the short term [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 0.79% [12]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of January 16, the UR 5 - 9 spread was 28 [15]. - **Position Analysis**: Not elaborated further in the provided content. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 16, there were 13355 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, an increase of 505 compared to last week [21]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of January 15, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1760 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu it was 1770 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton) [26]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of January 15, the FOB China price of urea was 402.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.5 US dollars/ton compared to last week [30]. - **Basis**: As of January 15, the urea basis was - 41 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton compared to last week [35]. 3.4 Industry Chain Analysis - **Upstream**: As of January 14, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton (unchanged). As of January 15, the NYMEX natural gas closed at 3.14 US dollars/million British thermal units (unchanged) [38]. - **Industry**: As of January 15, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 140.51 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.35 tons (2.44%), and the capacity utilization rate was 85.25%, a week - on - week increase of 2.03%. As of January 15, the port sample inventory was 13.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 tons (4.29%). As of January 14, the total enterprise inventory was 98.61 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.61 tons (3.53%). In November 2025, urea exports were 60.18 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49.95% [41][44][47]. - **Downstream**: As of January 15, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 40.08%, a week - on - week increase of 2.91 percentage points, and is expected to remain stable with a narrow - range increase. As of January 15, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 62.18%, a week - on - week increase of 7.83 percentage points [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry (urea) is "oscillating slightly bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term urea price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger, with the 05 contract reference range between 1730 - 1830 yuan/ton. The recommended trading strategy is to sell put options [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Tuesday, the price of the main urea contract 2605 fell by 2 yuan to 1774 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China mainstream area was 1740 yuan/ton. Long - position holdings decreased by 1904 lots to 229,000 lots, and short - position holdings decreased by 6890 lots to 246,000 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 202,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous working day and 279,000 tons from the same period last year. The current operating rate is 85.8%, a 4.5% increase from 81.2% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.0222 million tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week, a 0.29% month - on - month increase. The sample inventory at urea ports is 140,000 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons month - on - month [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 37.7%, a 1.6% month - on - month decrease, and the operating rate of melamine is 58.5%, a 3.1% month - on - month decrease [1] - Tender: On January 2, India's NFL held a urea import tender, receiving 26 suppliers with a total bid volume of 3.62 million tons, including 1.59 million tons on the east coast and 2.02 million tons on the west coast. The lowest quotes were from Koch, at CFR426.8 dollars/ton on the east coast and 424.8 dollars/ton on the west coast [1] - Import and Export: In November 2025, urea imports were 197.77 tons, a 135.71% month - on - month increase; the average import price was 1107.41 dollars/ton, a 278.44% month - on - month increase. In the same month, urea exports were 601,800 tons, a 49.95% month - on - month decrease; the average export price was 424.76 dollars/ton, a 50.80% month - on - month decrease [1] - Other News: According to CCTV News, on January 11, the US District of Columbia Federal Prosecutor's Office launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell regarding the renovation project of the Fed's Washington headquarters and whether he lied to Congress about the project scope [1] Market Logic - Last week, the inventory of urea enterprises increased slightly. The lowest ex - factory price of mainstream urea factories over the weekend was 1670 - 1700 yuan/ton. The release of the Indian tender price is positive for the international market, but there is no clear news about new domestic export quotas [1] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to sell put options [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - No relevant information provided Group 3: Summary by Key Indicators Market Prices in Mainstream Areas - The market prices of urea in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Anhui decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while those in Shanxi, Heilongjiang, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged on January 12, 2026 [2] Factory Prices - The factory prices of Hebei Dongguang decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while those of Shandong Hualu, Jiangsu Linggu, and Anhui Haoyuan remained unchanged [2] Basis - The basis of Shandong 05, Shandong 01, Hebei 05, and Hebei 01 increased by 14 - 24 yuan/ton [2] Monthly Spread - The 1 - 5 spread and 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1 yuan/ton [2] Warehouse Receipts - The total number of warehouse receipts increased by 350 to 13,200 [2] International Quotes - The FOB prices in the Middle East, the U.S. Gulf, Egypt, and the Baltic, as well as the CFR price in Brazil, increased by 2 - 7 dollars/ton [2]

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Market Weekly Report - Report Date: December 26, 2025 - Researcher: Lin Jingyi - Qualification Numbers: Futures Practitioner No. F03139610, Futures Investment Consulting No. Z0021558 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic urea market showed a strong fluctuation. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex-factory price of small and medium-sized urea particles in Shandong was 1,670 - 1,740 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 20 yuan/ton week-on-week. Although the actual export volume has not shown obvious abnormalities recently, market sentiment has been repeatedly affected by export expectations, which has stimulated downstream purchasing to some extent [6]. - Recently, some new device overhauls have led to a continued decline in domestic urea production. Next week, no enterprise devices are planned to stop, and 3 - 5 stopped devices may resume production. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the probability of an increase in production is relatively high [6]. - Although agriculture is in the off - season for rigid demand, local agricultural reserves in Jiangsu and Anhui may increase slightly, while commercial reserve demand may slow down due to price constraints. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer plants decreased slightly this week due to local environmental protection warnings, and it may fluctuate slightly in the short term. Attention should be paid to weather and local environmental protection conditions [6]. - Recently, driven by market sentiment, urea factories have continuously advanced orders and improved shipments. At the same time, affected by local environmental protection warnings, some urea devices have reduced production, leading to a continued decline in domestic urea enterprise inventories. In the short term, as environmental protection warnings end and urea production rebounds, inventories are expected to rise [6]. - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,710 - 1,760 yuan in the short term [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic urea market was strong this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong was 1,670 - 1,740 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. Market sentiment was affected by export expectations, which stimulated downstream purchasing [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Production may increase next week. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, with local agricultural reserves in Jiangsu and Anhui possibly increasing slightly and commercial reserve demand slowing down. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer plants may fluctuate slightly. Urea enterprise inventories may rise as production rebounds after environmental protection warnings end [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,710 - 1,760 yuan in the short term [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the main Zhengzhou urea contract oscillated and closed higher this week, with a weekly increase of 2.24% [9]. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of December 26, the UR 5 - 9 spread was 34 [13]. - **Position Analysis**: Not elaborated in the text. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 26, the number of Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts was 10,750, a decrease of 226 compared to last week [19]. Spot Market - **Domestic Price**: As of December 25, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1,730 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was 1,720 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [25]. - **External Price**: As of December 25, the FOB price of urea in China was 390 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.5 US dollars/ton compared to last week [29]. - **Basis**: As of December 25, the urea basis was - 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton compared to last week [33]. 3. Industrial Chain Analysis Upstream - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: As of December 24, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal was 695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to last week; the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.25 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.3 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [36]. Industry - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: As of December 25, China's urea production was 1.3334 million tons, a decrease of 32,500 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 2.38%; the capacity utilization rate was 78.77%, a decrease of 1.92% from the previous period, showing a slight downward trend [39]. - **Inventory**: As of December 25, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 177,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 39,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28.26%; as of December 24, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0689 million tons, a decrease of 110,800 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 9.39% [40]. - **Export**: According to customs statistics, in November 2025, urea exports were 601,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49.95% [45]. Downstream - **Compound Fertilizer and Melamine Start - up Rates**: As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.62 percentage points; the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 58.07%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points from last week [48].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The report states that the short - term domestic demand for urea is weak. Although exports are progressing, the domestic supply - demand situation remains loose, and the market is expected to decline in the near term. It suggests a neutral view of the market with both macro and cost factors being positive, while domestic demand being negative [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Cost - Coking coal price on 2025/12/24 was 490.00, up 5.00 from the previous day;无烟小块 remained at 940.00; natural gas remained at 3560.00 [1] Price - Domestic prices in different regions showed mixed trends. For example, prices in Henan, Anhui, Shandong, and Shanxi increased, while that in Hebei decreased. International prices such as China FOB, Middle East FOB, Southeast Asia CFR, and Brazil CFR remained unchanged [1] Inventory - Factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream sample inventory all remained unchanged on 2025/12/24 compared to the previous day [1] Supply - Daily production, overall开工率, coal - based开工率, and gas - based开工率 all remained unchanged. The number of pending orders and复合肥开工 also remained stable [1] Demand -开工率 of melamine, formaldehyde, and other downstream products remained unchanged [1] Profit - Profits from fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and natural gas remained unchanged, while the price of liquid ammonia decreased by 10.00 [1] Related Products - Prices of related products such as compound fertilizer remained unchanged, while prices of melamine, methanol, etc. decreased [1] Futures - The settlement price increased by 19.00, the basis increased by 16.00, the trading volume decreased by 11422.00, the open interest increased by 8319.00, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 100.00 [1]