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广发证券:6大指标看居民入市:温度几何?
Xuan Gu Bao· 2025-09-22 00:09
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report maintains that the market has established a "bull market mentality," and once a trend is formed, it is difficult to reverse in the short term, emphasizing the importance of adhering to industry main lines [1] - The transition from a bear market to a bull market can be divided into two phases: "watching" and "entering," with specific emotional and funding indicators to observe [29][31] Group 2 - Three emotional indicators are identified to assess the degree of resident participation in the bull market, including internet search volumes for keywords like "bull market" and "stocks," app download volumes, and new account openings at securities firms [2][31] - The emotional uplift phase for residents entering the market began in mid-August, corresponding to the Shanghai Composite Index around 3750 points and a market turnover of approximately 2.5 trillion [2][31] Group 3 - The report highlights that the number of new accounts opened in August approached levels seen during the spring market surge but was less than half of the levels during the "924" period last year, indicating that resident sentiment is still in its early stages [3][31] - The report notes that while the current funding volume has increased since August, it has not yet reached peak levels compared to previous bull markets [8][12] Group 4 - The report discusses the funding indicators, noting that the net inflow of funds in August was approximately 4058 billion, which is significantly lower than the peak inflows seen in previous bull markets [12][48] - The net inflow of leveraged funds in August was 2700 billion, which is considered relatively high compared to recent years but still below the levels seen in the 2014-2015 bull market [15][50] Group 5 - The report indicates that the current trend of resident participation in the market is characterized by a gradual shift in risk preference, with a notable increase in the use of "fixed income+" and ETFs rather than active equity funds [17][53] - The report compares the current inflow of funds through ETFs and active equity funds, noting that the current inflow levels are still in the early stages compared to previous bull markets [21][55] Group 6 - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a bull market mentality and adhering to industry main lines, using a moving average deviation indicator to assess the strength of the main line trend [25][60] - Current average deviation values for key sectors such as optical modules, PCBs, and innovative pharmaceuticals indicate that most trends remain healthy, with a need to monitor the innovative pharmaceuticals sector for potential weakness [25][60]