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上半年居民存贷比仍处高位,后续消费空间支撑信贷修复
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-15 11:26
Core Viewpoint - The financial data for the first half of the year indicates a significant increase in deposits, while the demand for resident loans remains sluggish, reflecting a cautious consumer sentiment and a high loan-to-deposit ratio of 9.21 [1][7]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In June, new RMB loans amounted to 2.24 trillion yuan, with corporate loans accounting for approximately 79% of the total, indicating strong demand from businesses [2][3]. - The total new loans for enterprises in the first half of the year reached 11.5 trillion yuan, while resident loans only increased by 1.17 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year decrease of 2.9 billion yuan [3][4]. - The M1 and M2 growth rates showed signs of recovery, with M1 increasing by 4.6% and M2 by 8.3% in June, suggesting improved liquidity in the market [6][7]. Group 2: Resident Loan Dynamics - The demand for resident loans has been slow to recover, with the first half of the year seeing only 1.17 trillion yuan in new loans, significantly lower than previous years [3][4]. - In June, resident loans increased by 597.6 billion yuan, with short-term and medium-to-long-term loans showing slight improvements, although overall growth remains weak [4][5]. - The ongoing decline in mortgage rates, averaging around 3.1% in the first half of the year, is expected to alleviate some pressure on housing loans [5][6]. Group 3: Deposit Trends - Total deposits increased by 17.94 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, with household deposits contributing 10.77 trillion yuan, reflecting a strong savings trend [7][8]. - The loan-to-deposit ratio for households remains high at 9.21, indicating a conservative spending approach among consumers [7][8]. - The narrowing gap between M1 and M2 growth rates suggests a shift towards more active deposit utilization, driven by improved market conditions and consumer sentiment [6][8].