Core Viewpoint - The industrial commodity futures market is experiencing a significant downturn, with multiple products, including coking coal and lithium carbonate, hitting trading limits due to tightened regulatory measures and speculative fund withdrawals [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 28, coking coal futures contracts hit the trading limit, with a notable drop of 11% in the main contract [3]. - The lithium carbonate futures contract saw a reduction of 11,300 contracts in a single day, representing a 23% decrease compared to the previous week [2]. - Other industrial products, such as glass, pure alkali, and industrial silicon, also faced declines, with polysilicon futures dropping 5.8% [1]. Group 2: Regulatory Actions - Exchanges have implemented trading limits to control speculative activities, with new rules stating that non-futures company members can only open a maximum of 3,000 contracts in lithium carbonate futures and 500 contracts in coking coal futures [2]. - The rapid convergence of futures and spot price differences indicates a response to these regulatory measures, with the price gap for lithium carbonate narrowing from 6,520 yuan/ton to 1,350 yuan/ton [2]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - The market is shifting from "emotional pricing" to "realistic pricing," emphasizing the importance of core indicators such as inventory depletion and capacity replacement [1]. - Despite recent price surges, the fundamentals for certain products like polysilicon and lithium carbonate remain weak, with high inventory levels and supply uncertainties affecting market dynamics [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that while there may be short-term price fluctuations, the overall trend will be dictated by fundamental supply and demand factors, particularly if demand from real estate and manufacturing sectors does not improve [6].