9月30日，国内期市能化板块跌幅居前。其中，纯碱期货主力合约大幅收跌2.26%，报1255.00元/吨。 现货方面，据中财期货介绍，华南地区轻质纯碱均价为1350元/吨，重质纯碱均价为1400元/吨；东北地 区轻质纯碱均价为1350元/吨，重质纯碱均价为1400元/吨，沙河地区重质纯碱均价为1203元/吨。 展望后市，光大期货表示，在新投产能压力下纯碱宽松程度将进一步扩大，但当前基本面对市场影响程 度较弱。后续宏观刺激政策、反内卷及环保等外部题材将和纯碱羸弱的基本面持续博弈，故纯碱期价 上、下方空间都将受限，整体走势弱于玻璃。 基本面来看，建信期货指出，供应高位运行，但库存持续去化，整体偏弱格局未改。纯碱周产由降转升 至77.69，涨至今年以来最高点，环比增长4.19%。纯碱装置运行稳定，无检修消息，后期产量预计进一 步增加。 需求端，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，玻璃产线冷修数量不变，整体产量不变，依旧底部徘徊，刚需生 产迹象明显，利润回升，主要来自于现货价格上行，预计下周产量继续底部。光伏玻璃走平，对整体纯 碱需求依旧不变，伴随反内卷进程，后续光伏玻璃减产加速，需求有望减弱。 ...

| 木期货日报 | 证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 曹剑兰 | ZOO 19556 | 2025年9月27日 | | | | | | | | | | | | 期货和现货价格 | 品种 | 9月26日 | 日日25日 | 旅鉄 | 旅鉄幅 | 单位 | | | | | | | | 原木2511 | 803.0 | 4.5 | 0.56% | 807.5 | 0.49% | 原木2601 | 823.0 | 819.0 | 4.0 | | | | | 2.5 | 0.30% | 原木2603 | 827.0 | 824.5 | 2.5 | 0.30% | 原木2605 | 830.0 | 827.5 | | | | | 11-01价差 | -15.5 | -16.0 | 0.5 | -21.5 | 2.0 | 11-03价差 | -19.5 | | | | | | | -57.5 | -4.5 | 11 ...

9月24日，国内期市能化板块多数飘红。其中，PTA期货主力合约开盘报4580.00元/吨，今日盘中高位震 荡运行；截至发稿，PTA主力最高触及4630.00元，下方探低4560.00元，涨幅达1.27%附近。 华联期货分析称，供应端上周装置维持稳定，前期重启装置负荷提升，总体供应压力逐步回升。需求端 聚酯持稳，传统旺季需求端表现不温不火，终端订单情况一般。库存端行业库存延续去化，但聚酯产品 线累库。成本方面原油隔夜大幅反弹，TA估值驱动短线走强。总体看TA供需面有所走弱，技术面区间 震荡偏弱。操作方面区间偏空交易，2601合约参考压力4700-4750。 宁证期货指出，PTA供应存增加预期。需求看，聚酯及终端负荷较前期缓慢回升，短期需求端存一定支 撑，不过后续新订单以及负荷回暖预期有限，关注下终端接单情况出现好转的持续性。成本看，国内外 PX检修装置重启，PX供应逐步增至偏高水平，PXN承压；原油震荡。整体上，PTA震荡偏弱看待。 建信期货表示，原油小幅反弹，但PTA现货供应充足，需求缺乏利好支撑，成本支撑与供应充裕博弈， 预计PTA行情窄幅震荡。 目前来看，PTA行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于PT ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial commodity futures market is experiencing a significant downturn, with multiple products, including coking coal and lithium carbonate, hitting trading limits due to tightened regulatory measures and speculative fund withdrawals [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 28, coking coal futures contracts hit the trading limit, with a notable drop of 11% in the main contract [3]. - The lithium carbonate futures contract saw a reduction of 11,300 contracts in a single day, representing a 23% decrease compared to the previous week [2]. - Other industrial products, such as glass, pure alkali, and industrial silicon, also faced declines, with polysilicon futures dropping 5.8% [1]. Group 2: Regulatory Actions - Exchanges have implemented trading limits to control speculative activities, with new rules stating that non-futures company members can only open a maximum of 3,000 contracts in lithium carbonate futures and 500 contracts in coking coal futures [2]. - The rapid convergence of futures and spot price differences indicates a response to these regulatory measures, with the price gap for lithium carbonate narrowing from 6,520 yuan/ton to 1,350 yuan/ton [2]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - The market is shifting from "emotional pricing" to "realistic pricing," emphasizing the importance of core indicators such as inventory depletion and capacity replacement [1]. - Despite recent price surges, the fundamentals for certain products like polysilicon and lithium carbonate remain weak, with high inventory levels and supply uncertainties affecting market dynamics [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that while there may be short-term price fluctuations, the overall trend will be dictated by fundamental supply and demand factors, particularly if demand from real estate and manufacturing sectors does not improve [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The polysilicon futures price turned from rising to falling on July 18, but it's too hasty to judge the price has reached the top. If the "anti - involution" policy is effectively implemented, the price still has support, and it should be treated as high - level oscillation [3][4]. - The A - share market is moderately positive with various consumption - stimulating policies, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate upwards at a high level [7][8]. - Gold has adjusted due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, but the long - term upward trend remains, and it can be bought at low when it reaches an important support level [11][12]. - Iron ore's short - term trend is upward despite today's high - level decline, and a bullish mindset should be maintained [16][17]. - Glass's fundamentals haven't changed significantly, and its trend is driven by news and sentiment. The bullish trend continues [19][20]. - Methanol's port inventory is accumulating, downstream demand is weak, and it should be short - sold with a light position [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polysilicon Futures - The polysilicon futures price had a cumulative increase of over 50% in the past 16 trading days, with the main contract rising 7.49% on the 17th, reaching a record high of 45,700 yuan/ton. But it fell 0.9% at the mid - day close on the 18th, closing at 43,620 yuan/ton. Technically, there are signs of a possible price correction, but the price may still be supported by policy and supply - demand improvements [4]. A - share Market - A - share's three major indexes opened higher, fell during the session, and then rebounded strongly at the end. With the frequent introduction of consumption - stimulating policies, it is moderately positive for A - shares, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate upwards at a high level [7][8]. Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing gold to adjust. However, the long - term upward trend remains, and it can be bought at low when it reaches an important support level [11][12]. Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron - making water output remains high. Although the price rose and then fell today, the upward trend remains unchanged, and a bullish mindset should be maintained [16][17]. Glass - The supply side of glass has not experienced significant losses and cold repairs, the factory inventory has decreased marginally, and the downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking power. The fundamentals haven't changed significantly, and the trend is driven by news and sentiment. The bullish trend continues [19][20]. Methanol - This week, the unloading of foreign vessels was smooth, and the methanol port inventory continued to accumulate. The downstream demand remained weak, especially in Jiangsu where the inventory increased significantly. It should be short - sold with a light position [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - On July 14, equity indices and CGB futures declined, while commodity futures showed a relatively balanced performance with new energy metals leading the gains [12][15]. - For lithium carbonate, the short - term price increase is driven by supply speculation, and in the long run, the surplus logic remains. It is recommended to wait for inventory to rise and price to rebound before short - selling [19][24]. - Crude oil's production increase negative impact is being digested, and under the pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, it is expected to fluctuate. The rebound space is limited by the inventory build - up expectation [27][31]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to macro sentiment and inventory build - up rhythm. In the medium - and long - term, there are concerns about consumption, and a high - level short - selling strategy is advisable [33][36]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On July 14, equity indices and CGB futures declined. Among commodity futures, new energy metals led the gains. The top three gainers were lithium carbonate, silicon metal, and crude oil, while the top three decliners were Chinese jujube, aluminum, and cast aluminum alloy [12][13][15]. 1.2 Daily Rise 1.2.1 Lithium Carbonate - On July 14, lithium carbonate rose 3.7% to 66480 yuan/ton. The price increase is due to supply speculation under improved fundamentals, with weak supply - demand drive. In the long run, the surplus logic remains. Short - term upstream - downstream game is intense, and warehouse receipts have decreased rapidly. It is recommended to avoid risks and short - sell at a high level after inventory rises and price rebounds [19][23]. - Market attention to the photovoltaic industry's "anti - involution" and supply - side reform has increased, and lithium carbonate has followed the upward trend. The "Yichun Mines Approval Problem" news had no impact on production. Supply - demand fundamentals have not changed much, and warehouse receipt volume is the key. Supply has increased, but imports may decline in July - August. Demand growth was high from January to June, and the July off - season impact is limited. Social inventory is accumulating, and warehouse receipt inventory has decreased in July, but may recover in August. Policy changes include domestic "anti - involution" sentiment and the US "Big Beautiful Act" affecting demand [20][22][24]. 1.2.2 Crude Oil - On July 14, crude oil rose 2.6% to 527.5 yuan/barrel. The negative impact of production increase is being digested, and inventory build - up is limited. Under the pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, it is expected to fluctuate. The rebound space is limited by the inventory build - up expectation. Refinery operating rates are high during the peak demand season, but wait for refinery gross profit and operating rate to decline and inventory to accumulate [27][30][31]. 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Aluminum - On July 14, aluminum fell 1.4% to 20415 yuan/ton. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate due to macro sentiment and inventory build - up rhythm. In the medium - and long - term, there are concerns about consumption. China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased in June, and downstream industry average operating rate decreased slightly this week. Short - term anti - involution expectation supports the price, but fundamentals show marginal weakening, and the subsequent price depends on real consumption [33][34][36]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - China's goods trade import and export in the first half of the year reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a YoY increase of 2.9%. Exports were 13 trillion yuan, up 7.2%, and imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, down 2.7%. In June, import and export growth rates were positive and rising [39]. - China will implement zero - tariff treatment for 53 African countries having diplomatic relations with it. Since December 1 last year, China has given zero - tariff treatment to all least - developed countries having diplomatic relations with it, and imports from these countries achieved double - digit growth in the first half of this year [39]. - China - US trade decreased by 9.3% YoY in the first half of the year. Affected by the US "reciprocal tariffs", it changed from growth in Q1 to decline in Q2. Recent Geneva and London talks have achieved progress, and both sides are implementing the London Framework outcomes [39][40]. 2.2 Industry News - The increment of China's social financing scale from January to June was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. RMB loans to the real economy increased by 12.74 trillion yuan, corporate bond net financing was 1.15 trillion yuan, and government bond net financing was 7.66 trillion yuan [40]. - It is reasonable for small and medium - sized banks to appropriately increase bond holdings within the supervision - permitted scope, but they need to balance investment returns and risk - taking [40].

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.43% and the Shenzhen Component down by 0.23% as of midday [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 987.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 43.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The humanoid robot sector experienced a surge, with Upwind New Materials achieving a four-day consecutive limit-up and Zhongdali De gaining two consecutive limit-ups [3][8] - The electric power sector also strengthened, with YN Energy hitting the limit-up within one minute of opening [5][6] - The pan-financial sector faced significant adjustments, with multi-financial and internet financial stocks leading the decline, including Nanhua Futures and Dazhihui hitting the limit-down [3][13] Individual Stock Highlights - YN Energy opened and quickly reached the limit-up, marking a two-day consecutive limit-up [6] - Upwind New Materials saw a remarkable increase, with a cumulative rise of 107.46% over four trading days following a major acquisition announcement [9][11] - Guolian Minsheng's H-shares surged nearly 39% shortly after opening, driven by strong earnings forecasts [17][20] - Huijing Holdings experienced a dramatic rise of over 316% shortly after its resumption of trading [21][25] Investment Insights - The electric power sector is expected to benefit from rising electricity demand due to high temperatures, with fire power generation likely to increase significantly [7] - The humanoid robot industry is anticipated to enter a phase of rapid production and expansion, positively impacting the entire supply chain [12] - The non-bank financial sector is undergoing adjustments, with companies like Dazhihui facing significant losses due to operational challenges [16]

Core Viewpoint - The futures industry needs to deepen digital transformation through AI algorithms optimization, data integration, and intelligent risk control to help enterprises anticipate risks [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The futures and derivatives market plays an irreplaceable role in stabilizing enterprise operations and ensuring supply chain security [1] - Current global economic conditions are characterized by high volatility and low growth, with geopolitical conflicts exacerbating commodity price fluctuations [1] - AI models in the commodity trading market face multiple challenges, particularly due to data quality issues leading to model prediction distortions [1] Group 2: Data Quality Issues - The reliance on historical data for AI model training can lead to prediction inaccuracies if the data lacks completeness, representativeness, and timeliness [1] - The sparsity of data from emerging markets compared to the dominance of data from Europe and the US increases the prediction error rates in price linkage [1] Group 3: Company Strategies - The company, Jinshida, is addressing these challenges by developing various proprietary systems to assist in the digital transformation of risk management for commodity enterprises [2] - Jinshida aims to achieve operational intelligence and data assetization through the integration of intelligent agents, thereby creating diversified service models [2] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The increasing proportion of algorithmic trading in the commodity market may lead to risks associated with fragile liquidity structures [2] - Continuous development of differentiated data sources is essential to address the limitations of non-structured information texts and to overcome the homogeneity in market trading decisions brought by AI [2]