金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 1 / 8 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.， LTD 聊聊看多玻璃主力合约的五大理由 基于行业供需、政策导向、技术面信号等核心维度，梳理抄底玻璃2605合约的五大核心逻辑， 兼顾基本面支撑与交易机会： 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 1.供应收缩确定性强：行业持续亏损倒逼产能出清，1月7日讯，近日现货报价相对平稳，近期部 分厂家提涨。月底年初产线冷修逐渐兑现，且存预期外冷修产线。当前浮法玻璃日熔降至15.15万吨， 为历年新低。 2.成本筑底支撑价格：当前价格逼近900-1000元/吨的现金流成本区间，下方下跌空间有限，原 材料市场供需平衡，液碱等核心原料价格稳定，成本端形成强支撑。 3.需求边际改善可期：2026年地产竣工降幅收窄至正增长，基建专项债与绿色建材政策拉动刚 需，光伏、汽车玻璃等新兴领域需求同比增长，出口市场持续扩容补充增量。 GOLDTRUST F ...

本报讯（记者姚宜兵）2025年12月31日，中国证监会发布通知，同意大商所焦煤期权注册。同日，大商 所发布焦煤期权合约和焦煤期权上市交易有关事项的通知，对焦煤期权的上市交易时间、交易合约、挂 牌基准价等事项进行了明确。 据了解，焦煤是钢铁行业、煤化工产业的核心基础原料。我国是全球最大的焦煤生产国和消费国，2024 年，我国主焦煤生产量1.65亿吨，占全球产量的53%；消费量2.06亿吨，占全球消费量的63%。 为服务产业有效管理价格波动风险，2013年，大商所上市了焦煤期货。上市以来，焦煤期货市场运行平 稳，规模不断扩大，功能有效发挥，价格影响力稳步提升，越来越多的产业企业利用焦煤期货进行套期 保值。2025年前11个月，焦煤期货日均成交量104万手，日均持仓量67万手，期现价格相关性为97%， 服务实体经济能力显著增强，为焦煤期权的推出奠定了坚实基础。 近年来，焦煤受供需、政策等多重因素影响，价格波动较为剧烈，产业企业对运用衍生工具开展精细化 风险管理的需求日益强烈。焦煤期权上市后，将与焦煤期货、焦炭期货以及铁矿石期货、期权一起，为 相关产业提供覆盖钢铁原燃料的更全面的风险管理工具体系，更好满足产业链企业精 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views of the Report The report offers comprehensive analysis and forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. It assesses the supply - demand situation, price trends, and influencing factors of each commodity, providing investors with reference for trading decisions [2][4]. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining, with a trend strength of 0. Gold prices are affected by factors such as inflation data and central bank policies [2][5]. - **Silver**: Adjusting at a high level, trend strength is 0. Silver prices are in a high - level adjustment phase [2][5]. - **Platinum**: ETFs are continuously flowing in, and prices are oscillating upwards, trend strength is 1 [2][28]. - **Palladium**: Successfully breaking through the previous high, with strong upward momentum, trend strength is 1 [2][28]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Both domestic and overseas inventories are decreasing, providing support for prices, trend strength is 0 [2][11]. - **Zinc**: Moving sideways in a range, trend strength is 0 [2][14]. - **Lead**: Inventory reduction is supporting prices, trend strength is 0 [2][17]. - **Tin**: Supply is facing new disruptions, trend strength is 1 [2][20]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillating within a range, trend strength is 0 [2][25]. - **Alumina**: Slightly declining, trend strength is 0 [2][25]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum, trend strength is 0 [2][25]. - **Nickel**: The surplus is undergoing a structural shift, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks, trend strength is 0 [2][32]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply and demand are both weak, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level, trend strength is 0 [2][32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related**: The report does not directly cover crude oil, but some products are affected by it. For example, asphalt is in a low - level oscillation, trend strength is 0 [2][78]. - **PTA**: Cost support is relatively strong, with a 4500 - 4800 range operation suggested, trend strength is 1 [2][63][69]. - **MEG**: In a range - bound market, trend strength is 1 [2][63][69]. - **Rubber**: Widely oscillating, trend strength is 0 [2][70]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The upward trend is slowing down, trend strength is 0 [2][74]. - **LLDPE**: Supply elasticity is limited, and valuation continues to be under pressure, trend strength is 0 [2][92]. - **PP**: Factory warehouse warrants are cancelled, and the market is moving sideways, trend strength is 0 [2][95]. - **Caustic Soda**: There will still be pressure in the later stage, trend strength is 0 [2][98]. - **Paper Pulp**: Widely oscillating, trend strength is 0 [2][101]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, trend strength is 0 [2][108]. - **Methanol**: Oscillating with support, trend strength is 0 [2][111]. - **Urea**: Oscillating with support, trend strength is 0 [2][115]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, trend strength is 0 [2][119]. - **LPG**: Strong in the short - term but under pressure in the long - term, trend strength is 0 [2][123]. - **Propylene**: Narrowly adjusting in the short - term, trend strength is 0 [2][124]. - **PVC**: The rebound is difficult to sustain, trend strength is 0 [2][132]. - **Fuel Oil**: Consolidating in the short - term with support below, trend strength is 0 [2][135]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Narrowly oscillating, with the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market narrowing, trend strength is 0 [2][136]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: May rebound in the short - term and is searching for a bottom while oscillating, trend strength is 0 [2][160]. - **Soybean Oil**: Weak performance of US soybeans, and it is difficult for soybean oil to stabilize, trend strength is 0 [2][160]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillating at a low level, trend strength is 0 [2][166]. - **Soybean**: Oscillating, trend strength is 0 [2][166]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market, trend strength is 0 [2][169]. - **Sugar**: Weakly operating, trend strength is - 1 [2][173]. - **Cotton**: Oscillating with an upward bias, attention should be paid to downstream demand, trend strength is 0 [2][69][178]. - **Eggs**: Maintaining an oscillating trend, trend strength is 0 [2][184]. - **Hogs**: The peak demand during the Winter Solstice has passed, trend strength is - 1 [2][186]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to oil mill purchases, trend strength is 0 [2][192]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: In an oscillating market, trend strength is 0 [2][138]. Fibers - **Short Fiber**: Oscillating at a low level in the short - term and facing pressure in the medium - term, trend strength is 0 [2][148]. - **Bottle Chip**: Oscillating at a low level in the short - term and facing pressure in the medium - term, trend strength is 0 [2][148]. Paper - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach, trend strength is 0 [2][151]. Aromatics - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating in the short - term, trend strength is 0 [2][156].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Industry Association is committed to serving national strategies and promoting the development of the futures market to support the real economy and maintain market stability [1] Group 1 - The association has been focusing on the construction of Shanghai's "Five Centers" since June, emphasizing its mission to enhance the futures market's contribution to national development [1] - A special competition titled "Promoting Futures Market Services for National Development" was launched, featuring activities such as online voting, expert reviews, and on-site presentations [1] - A total of 24 outstanding cases were selected and will be showcased to highlight the achievements in supporting the real economy [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [4] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Soda ash continues to be in a weak pattern of supply - demand imbalance. Although weekly production and operating rate have declined, the absolute output remains high. With flat shipments, weak supply - demand in downstream float glass, and no improvement in terminal real estate and photovoltaic demand, the cost provides support but high inventory restricts price increase. Short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and medium - long term may be treated with rebound short - selling [8]. - For glass, the spot performance is lower than expected, supply is stable, inventory is high, and demand in the real estate market is weak. However, with the accelerating cold - repair due to declining profits, if about 5000 tons of production lines are cold - repaired by the end of the year, inventory can be reduced. Currently, the glass price is undervalued, and the downward space is limited. Without new market expectations, the downward trend may continue [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On November 24, the main soda ash futures SA601 contract rebounded slightly. The closing price was 1183 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 1.02%, with a daily reduction of 58,280 lots [7]. - Soda ash is in a weak supply - demand imbalance. Weekly production and operating rate are down, but absolute output is still high. Downstream float glass has weak supply - demand, and terminal real estate and photovoltaic demand show no improvement. Cost supports the price, but high inventory restricts price increase. Short - term trend is volatile, and medium - long term may be rebound short - selling [8]. Glass - The spot performance is lower than expected, and the impact of concentrated production line shutdowns in Shahe is less than expected. Supply is stable, inventory is high after the holiday, and demand in the real estate market is weak. With declining profits, cold - repair is accelerating. About 5000 tons of production lines are planned for cold - repair by the end of the year. If cold - repaired, inventory can be reduced. Currently, the glass price is undervalued, and the downward trend may continue without new expectations [9]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production, but no specific data analysis is presented in the text [12][16][15]

Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report is dated October 16, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team includes researchers for different sectors such as Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), and Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] 3. Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices fluctuated. The closing price of Si2511 was 8,570 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.12%. The trading volume was 206,727 lots, and the open interest was 144,190 lots, a net decrease of 18,484 lots [4] Outlook - Spot prices remained stable, basis fluctuations weakened, and capital divergence converged. Supply - side pressure persisted, with the output in the second week of October at 95,700 tons and the monthly output expected to reach 420,000 tons. There was no significant increase in demand, with stable monthly demand for polysilicon, 120,000 tons for organic silicon, and 120,000 tons for exports and alloy demand. The oversupply pressure remained, and there was no de - stocking drive in the market. The policy side entered a vacuum period. Future support was mainly concentrated on production cuts in the southwest and rising electricity prices, and potential policy benefits were yet to be observed. Fundamentally, it was difficult to provide significant drivers, and the price was expected to fluctuate between 8,200 - 9,000 yuan/ton in the short term [4] 4. Market News - On October 15, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,357 lots, a net decrease of 840 lots compared to the previous trading day. The organic silicon DMC market remained stable, with quotes ranging from 11,100 - 11,500 yuan/ton. Most manufacturers still had some pre - sold orders as support. Currently, the number of overhauling manufacturers was large, and some manufacturers planned to enter overhaul, leading to a reduction in market supply [5]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) in China, focusing on the transition from land finance to new productive forces, emphasizing technological innovation and artificial intelligence, and enhancing consumer roles to address complex international situations [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth Target**: The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to set an economic growth target of around 4.5%, aligning with previous five-year plans that typically included specific targets [9]. 2. **Investment Focus**: Key investment areas include promoting price recovery to expand domestic demand, developing emerging industries such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, marine economy, and biomedicine, and addressing "bottleneck" technologies [10][11]. 3. **Real Estate Development Model**: The plan aims to establish a new real estate development model, transitioning from land sales to equity investments, and enhancing the capital market's quality [12][36]. 4. **Banking Sector Reforms**: The banking industry will undergo reforms to strengthen risk control, accelerate digital transformation, and optimize credit structures, with increased support for technological innovation and green sectors [37][38]. 5. **Securities Industry Development**: The securities sector will focus on supply-side optimization, improving service quality, and enhancing capital market system construction to meet the needs of new productive forces [2][50]. Additional Important Content 1. **Consumer Demand Expansion**: Expanding domestic demand is crucial, with a focus on traditional and new consumption areas, including household appliances and emerging sectors like pet economy and domestic beauty products [17][18]. 2. **Fixed Income Market Changes**: The fixed income market will be reshaped due to the decline of land finance and the rise of new productive forces, with potential risks in the municipal bond market and opportunities in technology innovation bonds [20][22]. 3. **New Quality Productive Forces**: This concept encompasses the transformation of traditional industries, the development of strategic emerging industries, and the cultivation of future industries, aiming to enhance overall productivity [15]. 4. **Real Estate Market Dynamics**: The real estate sector faces challenges in meeting rigid demand, necessitating a new model that links people, housing, land, and finance [28][30]. 5. **Digital Transformation in Banking**: The banking sector is expected to leverage AI and digital technologies to enhance risk management and operational efficiency, aligning with the trends of the digital economy [40][41]. Conclusion The "15th Five-Year Plan" represents a critical juncture for China's economic development, focusing on innovation, consumer demand, and structural reforms across various sectors, including banking, real estate, and securities. The emphasis on new productive forces and digital transformation indicates a strategic shift towards sustainable and high-quality growth in the coming years.

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for soda ash has seen a significant decline, with the main contract dropping by 2.26% to 1255.00 CNY/ton, indicating a weak overall market condition [1] Supply and Inventory - Supply remains high, but inventory continues to decrease, maintaining a weak market structure [1] - Weekly production of soda ash has increased to 77.69 thousand tons, the highest point this year, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 4.19% [1] - Soda ash production facilities are operating stably with no maintenance news, and production is expected to further increase in the future [1] Demand Analysis - The number of cold repairs in glass production lines remains unchanged, keeping overall production at a low level, with signs of just-in-time production and profit recovery mainly driven by rising spot prices [1] - The demand for soda ash remains stable, but the photovoltaic glass market is flat, and with the acceleration of production cuts in photovoltaic glass, demand is expected to weaken [1] Market Outlook - According to Everbright Futures, the pressure from new production capacity will further widen the supply of soda ash, although the current fundamentals have a limited impact on the market [1] - Future macroeconomic stimulus policies, anti-involution, and environmental factors will continue to interact with the weak fundamentals of soda ash, leading to limited upward and downward price movements, with overall trends weaker than that of glass [1]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The 01 contract range is expected to be between 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak - production season of the main producing areas. If the raw material output is smooth, consider a short - selling strategy at the upper limit of the range; if the raw material output is not smooth, the rubber price is expected to continue to operate within the range [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 25, the price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a 0.34% increase. The full - milk basis was - 820 yuan/ton, up 12.20%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged at 14,850 yuan/ton. The non - standard price difference was - 720 yuan/ton, up 6.49%. The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber in the international market was 50.45 Thai baht/kg, up 0.20%, and the FOB intermediate price of glue was 55.30, down 0.90%. The price of natural rubber lumps in Xishuangbanna was 13,200 yuan/ton, and the price of glue was 14,400 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The market mainstream price of raw materials in Hainan was 13,200 yuan/ton, down 1.49%, and the market mainstream price of foreign rubber raw materials in Hainan remained unchanged at 9,100 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 15 yuan/ton, up 50.00%; the 1 - 5 spread was 55 yuan/ton, down 26.67%; the 5 - 9 spread was - 40 yuan/ton, up 11.11% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, Thailand's production was 421,600 tons, up 1.61%; Indonesia's production was 197,500 tons, up 12.09%; India's production was 45,000 tons, down 2.17%; China's production was 101,300 tons, down 1.30%. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobile tires was 73.58%, down 0.08%, and the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.72%, up 0.06%. In August, domestic tire production was 10,295,400 tons, up 9.10%, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 63,010,000 pieces, down 5.46%. In July, the total import volume of natural rubber was 474,800 tons, up 2.47%. In August, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was 660,000 tons, up 4.76%. The daily production cost of dry rubber (STR20) in Thailand was 13,007 yuan/ton, up 0.34%, and the daily production profit was - 213 yuan/ton, up 49.53%. The daily production cost of dry rubber (RSS3) was 17,123 yuan/ton, down 0.24%, and the daily production profit was 2,677 yuan/ton, up 1.56% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) was 286,639 tons, down 0.95%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 44,553 tons, down 3.07%. The weekly inbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao was 2.47%, up 0.88%, and the outbound rate was 6.44%, down 1.50%. The weekly inbound rate of dry rubber in general trade in Qingdao was 9.62%, up 6.19%, and the outbound rate was 9.58%, up 6.03% [1]. Group 2: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Currently, the log market shows a volatile pattern, with a trading volume of only about 12,000 lots, and the market maintains a narrow - range fluctuation around 800. As the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" approach, attention should be paid to whether the shipment volume improves significantly after entering the seasonal peak season. The current daily average shipment volume is around 60,000 cubic meters, but it has not exceeded 70,000 cubic meters. From the perspective of delivery logic, buyers' willingness to take delivery is poor, and sellers' hedging positions suppress the market, lacking a strong upward driving force. If the fundamentals remain in a weak - balance state, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Under the current pattern of "weak reality and strong expectation", it is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 26, the price of log 2511 was 803 yuan/cubic meter, up 4.5 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day, with a 0.56% increase; the price of log 2601 was 823 yuan/cubic meter, up 4 yuan/cubic meter; the price of log 2603 was 827 yuan/cubic meter, up 2.5 yuan/cubic meter; the price of log 2605 was 830 yuan/cubic meter, up 2.5 yuan/cubic meter. The 11 - 01 spread was - 15.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.5 yuan/cubic meter; the 11 - 03 spread was - 19.5 yuan/cubic meter. The basis of the 11 - contract was - 53 yuan/cubic meter, and the basis of the 01 - contract was - 4 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 3.9A small - sized radiata pine at Rizhao Port was 710 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; the price of 3.9A medium - sized radiata pine was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; the price of 3.9A large - sized radiata pine was 880 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged. The price of 4A small - sized radiata pine at Taicang Port was 720 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; the price of 4A medium - sized radiata pine was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; the price of 4A large - sized radiata pine was 820 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged. The price of spruce 11.8 at Rizhao Port was 1,150 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - sized A radiata pine was 114 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, unchanged, and the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce was 128 euros/JAS cubic meter, unchanged [2]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.119, down 0.01. The theoretical import cost was 799.14 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.11 yuan/cubic meter, with a 0% increase, calculated based on a 15% over - length [2]. - **Supply**: In August, the port shipping volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 1.666 million cubic meters, down 3.87% from July. The number of ships at the port was 44, down 6.38% from July. As of September 19, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 2.92 million cubic meters, down 100,000 cubic meters from the previous week [2]. - **Demand**: As of September 12, the daily average shipment volume of logs was 59,800 cubic meters, down 31,000 cubic meters from the previous week. This week, 10 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive, an increase of 4 from the previous week, with a total arrival volume of about 336,000 cubic meters, an increase of 126,000 cubic meters from the previous week [2]. Group 3: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In terms of fundamentals, the regulation effect on the supply side is less than expected, and the pattern of over - capacity in the industry remains unchanged. At the same time, the inventory of downstream component links is high, and the price has loosened. It is expected that before the National Day holiday, the polysilicon price will mainly remain range - bound, with a possible fluctuation range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to whether the national - level policies on capacity clearance and industry stockpiling will issue specific timetables and implementation details, observe the actual operating rate and production - cut implementation of polysilicon enterprises, and track the inventory digestion progress and new order demand of downstream photovoltaic component factories [3]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 25, the average price of N - type re -投料 was 52,550 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a 0.10% increase. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50,500 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton, with a 2.02% increase. The N - type material basis (average price) was 1,185 yuan/ton, up 5.80%. The average price of N - type silicon wafers (210mm) was 1.70 yuan/piece, unchanged. The average price of N - type silicon wafers (210R) was 1.39 yuan/piece, down 0.71%. The average price of single - crystal Topcon battery cells (210R) was 0.288 yuan/piece, unchanged. The average price of Topcon components (210mm, distributed) was 0.683 yuan/watt, unchanged. The average price of N - type 210mm components for centralized projects was 0.679 yuan/watt, up 0.15% [3]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract price was 21,365 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, with a - 0.03% decrease. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract was 50 yuan/ton, down 91.80%. The spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was - 2,315 yuan/ton, up 3.34%. The spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 420 yuan/ton, up 20.00%. The spread between the third - continuous and the fourth - continuous contract was 295 yuan/ton, up 637.50%. The spread between the fourth - continuous and the fifth - continuous contract was - 180 yuan/ton, up 20.00%. The spread between the fifth - continuous and the sixth - continuous contract was 240 yuan/ton, up 637.50% [3]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: The silicon wafer production was 13.78 GW, down 1.01%. The polysilicon production was 3.11 kilotons, up 0.32% [3]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The polysilicon production was 131.7 kilotons, up 23.31%. The polysilicon import volume was 0.1 kilotons, down 9.63%. The polysilicon export volume was 0.3 kilotons, up 40.12%. The net export volume of polysilicon was 0.2 kilotons, up 94.25%. The silicon wafer production was 56.04 GW, up 6.24%. The silicon wafer import volume was 0.05 kilotons, up 74.18%. The silicon wafer export volume was

Core Viewpoint - The PTA futures market is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the main contract showing a price range between 4560.00 and 4630.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a gain of approximately 1.27% [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: Recent stability in production facilities has led to an increase in operational load, resulting in a gradual rise in overall supply pressure [1]. - Demand side: Polyester demand remains stable, but the traditional peak season is showing lackluster performance, with general terminal order conditions being average [1]. - Inventory: Industry inventory continues to decrease, although there is an accumulation in the polyester product line [1]. Cost Factors - Cost dynamics: A significant rebound in crude oil prices has been observed, which is expected to drive short-term strength in TA valuations [1]. - PX supply: The restart of domestic and international PX maintenance facilities is leading to a gradual increase in PX supply, putting pressure on PXN [1][2]. Market Outlook - Overall market sentiment: The PTA market is anticipated to experience weak fluctuations, with a focus on the balance between cost support and ample supply [2]. - Trading strategy: Recommendations suggest a bearish trading approach, with reference pressure levels for the 2601 contract set between 4700 and 4750 CNY/ton [1].