焦煤全合约跌停、碳酸锂期货单日减仓23% 行业人士对记者分析称，中长期而言，工业品期货走势仍以基本面主导、政策扰动为炒作逻辑。投资者 需警惕市场从"情绪定价"向"现实定价"的切换，关注库存去化节奏、产能置换进展及新能源产业链需求 韧性等核心指标。 炒作资金撤退，期现价差快速收敛 交易所出手进行调控下，投机资金开始撤退。 以盘中率先跌停的碳酸锂为例，截至7月28日收盘，碳酸锂2509合约单日减仓11.3万手，较上周五环比 减少23%。 根据广期所日前公告，自7月28日交易时起，非期货公司会员或者客户在碳酸锂期货LC2509合约上单日 开仓量不得超过3000手。 而上个交易周，碳酸锂期货主力合约单日成交量维持在100万手以上。多头借"反内卷"题材狂飙，投机 资金涌入，碳酸锂主力合约一度冲上8万元/吨大关。 这也拉大了期货与现货的价格差。7月25日，碳酸锂2509合约的结算价达到79460元/吨，而同日国内电 池级碳酸锂现货均价为72940元/吨，升水幅度达到6520元。目前在交易限额后，价差迅速收敛至1350 元/吨。 除了碳酸锂，焦煤期货也被限额交易，大商所要求非期货公司会员或者客户自7月29日交易时（即28日 ...

从政策维度来看，当前"反内卷"政策的核心在于通过规范行业竞争秩序、淘汰低效产能、推动技术升 级，重塑周期行业的盈利模型。相关行业的估值逻辑已经发生根本性变化，从"弱预期弱现实"变为"强 预期弱现实"，回调或形成二浪上涨的优质买点。 行情的回落让投资者不禁疑问，"反内卷"行情结束了吗？ 从驱动逻辑角度来看，短暂的回调并不影响反内卷政策驱动下行业估值逻辑的根本性变化。这种短期调 整更多是市场恐高情绪的阶段性释放，而非底层估值逻辑的逆转。 从历史来看，以上一轮供给侧改革为例，在2016年2月到2017年底，建材行业涨幅达45.75%，钢铁行业 涨幅达41.61%，煤炭行业涨幅达31.55%。本轮改革政策还没有具体文件落地，若后续确切文件下发， 相关行业有望受益，指数或也会迎来行情。 今日开盘，"反内卷"概念主线全线回落，煤炭ETF（515220）跌超3%，钢铁ETF（515210）跌超2%， 建材ETF（159745）、光伏50ETF（159864）跌近1.5%。 相关机会： 煤炭ETF（515220）：全市场唯一一只煤炭ETF，规模突破70亿元。跟踪中证煤炭指数，集齐动力煤 +焦煤焦炭+煤化工。 钢铁ETF（51 ...

"反内卷" ：市场可能误解了什么？20250722 摘要 当前经济结构转型期，工业企业利润增速放缓，与 2016 年供给侧改革 相似，但本次反内卷主要针对需求良好领域的主动增产导致的过剩，避 免直接刺激需求以防加剧竞争。 外需行业资产周转率降至历史低位，表明尽管外需表现优于内需，但外 需行业面临更显著的供给问题和竞争压力，企业通过降价竞争抢占市场 份额。 与 2015 年不同，当前企业虽盈利不佳，但制造业投资大幅冲高，主动 增加投资以应对竞争，同时生产走强，表明企业主动增加供给应对竞争。 当前产能利用率较低的领域集中在中下游，与 2016 年上游原材料产能 过剩不同，且私营企业、民企面临更大挑战，国企产能利用率相对较高。 高耗能行业用电量增速放缓但工业生产强劲，源于设备更新带来的能耗 降低，未来淘汰落后产能的影响预计减弱，煤炭和生猪行业或面临供给 调控。 上游价格上涨挤压下游企业盈利，中下游成本上升幅度超过原材料价格 上涨幅度，表明存在过度投资导致的折旧等额外刚性成本，不利于反内 卷。 通过严格执行新老划断政策，淘汰不符合标准的老设备，可拉动 PPI 约 0.5 个百分点，提升工业企业利润约 1 个百分点，同 ...

XDIstue XD中国牧 十几码代 (0.2) 1898.43亿市值 2368.38亿市值 7218.12亿市值 17.75亿成交额 7.13亿成交额 8.17亿成交额 29.50 9.23 15.29 +0.07(+0.24%) +0.12(+0.79%) +0.04(+0.44%) 证券 电池 中信证券 宁德时代 国泰海通 CATL 4200.14亿市值 3464.24亿市值 12364.85亿市值 18.87亿成交额 18.55亿成交额 59.82亿成交额 28.34 19.65 271.20 +0.09(+0.32%) +0.35(+1.81%) +5.70(+2.15%) 消费电子 互联网服务 工业富联 立讯精密 东方财富 F 5383.90亿市值 2808.71亿市值 3717.11亿市值 35.27亿成交额 53.15亿成交额 61.94亿成交额 27.11 38.73 23.52 -0.39(-1.42%) -0.67(-1.70%) -0.08(-0.34%) 家电行业 食品饮料 海天味业 格力电器 kk 海尔智家 2681.95亿市值 2419.85亿市值 2265.78亿市值 10.0 ...

Core Insights - The China Securities Index Free Cash Flow Index (932365) has shown a positive performance, with a 0.72% increase as of July 18, 2025, and notable gains in constituent stocks such as Sumida (600710) up 5.28% and Luzhou Laojiao (000568) up 3.61% [1][4] Performance Summary - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159233) has increased by 0.98%, with a latest price of 1.03 yuan, and has accumulated a 0.59% increase over the past two weeks as of July 17, 2025 [1][3] - The ETF recorded a turnover rate of 6.88% during the trading session, with a total transaction volume of 13.52 million yuan, and an average daily transaction volume of 35.07 million yuan over the past year [3] Profitability and Drawdown - Since its inception, the Free Cash Flow ETF has maintained a monthly profit percentage of 100.00% and a monthly profit probability of 78.95% [3] - The maximum drawdown since inception is 2.14%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.16%, and it has the fastest recovery time of 8 days among comparable funds [3] Fee Structure and Tracking Accuracy - The management fee for the Free Cash Flow ETF is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10% [3] - The tracking error over the past month is 0.176%, indicating a high level of tracking accuracy [3] Valuation Metrics - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the Free Cash Flow Index is 10.46, which is in the 13.38th percentile over the past year, suggesting it is undervalued compared to 86.62% of the time in the last year [3] Top Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Free Cash Flow Index account for 57.48% of the index, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938) and China Merchants Energy (601919) [4][6]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese economy** and the **supply-side reform** initiatives, particularly focusing on the **steel**, **cement**, and **photovoltaic glass** industries. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Economy**: Despite the U.S. imposing tariffs on multiple countries, the market's reaction has been muted. However, the long-term effects on U.S. corporate profits and inflation are expected to be significant post-Q3 2023, necessitating vigilance from companies regarding potential risks [1][3][21]. 2. **Differences in Supply-Side Reform 2.0**: The current supply-side reform differs from the 2015-2018 reforms in its broader scope, complexity due to international factors, and emphasis on institutional adjustments for long-term stability [1][4][5][17]. 3. **Economic Performance in H1 2025**: China's economy showed resilience with a GDP growth exceeding 5%, driven by export activities and policy support. However, challenges are anticipated in H2 2025 due to supply-demand imbalances and deepening deflation [1][8][9]. 4. **Sector-Specific Production Cuts**: The steel industry plans to cut production by approximately 30 million tons, while the cement industry has a reduction plan set to begin in November 2024. The coal industry is unlikely to be involved in this round of reforms due to electricity safety concerns [1][10][11][12]. 5. **Challenges in the Photovoltaic Industry**: The photovoltaic glass sector is currently facing losses, with leading companies beginning to reduce production. The industry struggles with low concentration and weak demand, making comprehensive supply-side reform a lengthy process [1][13][30][31]. 6. **External Demand Pressures**: China faces external demand pressures from high tariffs, potential declines in exports to the U.S., and a global trade cycle downturn, which could impact economic growth and inflation [1][18][19]. 7. **Stock Market Outlook**: The Chinese stock market has entered a volatile phase since June, with recommendations to focus on A-shares while maintaining caution towards Hong Kong stocks. The long-term impact of supply-side reforms is expected to be positive for the overall stock market [2][20][25][27][28]. 8. **Future Economic Predictions**: The macroeconomic outlook for 2025 and 2026 suggests a potential deflationary environment, but successful supply-side reforms could lead to upward risks in economic growth [1][29]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Institutional Adjustments Needed**: The current reform emphasizes the need for institutional changes, including local government fiscal systems and social security frameworks, to achieve sustainable development [1][5][36]. 2. **Market Reaction to Policy Changes**: The market's response to new tariff policies has been characterized by investor fatigue, indicating a desire for clarity and stability in trade relations [1][22]. 3. **Long-Term Investment Strategies**: The call suggests a cautious approach to investments in the short term, with a focus on individual A-share opportunities, while the overall market is expected to improve in terms of investment returns over the next 6 to 12 months [1][24][28].

Group 1: Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index components showed a positive trend with insurance, oil, and securities sectors rising significantly, while the banking sector also performed well [1][6]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The insurance sector, including companies like China Life and Ping An, saw increases in market capitalization, with China Life at 1,387.12 billion and Ping An at 1,036.22 billion, reflecting gains of 2.05% and 2.04% respectively [3]. - The oil sector, represented by Sinopec and PetroChina, also experienced growth, with Sinopec's market cap at 698.73 billion and PetroChina at 1,588.62 billion, both showing positive changes of 1.17% and 1.41% respectively [3]. - The semiconductor industry, including Northern Huachuang and Cambrian, faced slight declines, with Northern Huachuang down by 1.43% [3]. - The beverage sector, particularly Kweichow Moutai, reported a market cap of 1,780.16 billion, with a minor decrease of 0.13% [3]. Group 3: Trading Volume - Trading volumes varied across sectors, with the insurance sector leading with a total trading volume of 24.01 billion for Ping An, while the semiconductor sector had lower volumes, with Northern Huachuang at 9.73 billion [3][4]. - The automotive sector, represented by BYD, had a significant trading volume of 47.62 billion, indicating strong investor interest [3].

宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 期货执业证号:F3074875; 2025/7/3 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | | | | | | 较前值变动 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | | | | | | | | | (bp) | | स्टे | DR001 | 1.51 | 14.09 | DR007 | 1.91 | 20.92 | | E | GC001 | 1.35 | -11.00 | GC007 | 1.50 | -8.00 | | F | SHBOR 3M | 1.62 | -0.85 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 场 | 1年期国债 | 1.34 | -0.50 | 5年期国债 | 1.49 | 0.50 | | 与 | 10年期国债 | 1.65 | 0.10 | 10年期美债 | 4.26 | 2.00 | | 流 | 回顾:央行昨日开展了3315亿元7天期逆回购操作 ...

Group 1 - The central theme of the article revolves around the insights from a high-level meeting and the market sentiment in July, particularly in the technology sector [1][3]. - The sixth meeting of the Central Financial Committee focused on advancing the construction of a unified national market, emphasizing the need to address challenges such as low-price disorderly competition and to guide companies towards improving product quality [3][4]. - The policy direction for the second half of the year is expected to focus on reducing overcapacity and eliminating vicious competition, which has been highlighted in recent discussions and articles [3][4]. Group 2 - Specific industries that may benefit from the policy shift towards reducing internal competition and overcapacity include the new energy sector, automotive industry, traditional energy sectors like coal, and traditional manufacturing industries such as steel [4]. - The anticipated policy changes could lead to a reduction in supply while maintaining demand, potentially allowing prices to recover and improving financial performance for companies within these sectors [4].

最近中国股市出现调整的主要原因是什么？ 最近中国股市的调整表面上看是由于海外地缘政治冲突的升温，但实际上更合 理的解释是前期以创新药、新消费为代表的主题交易已经相对拥挤，市场借此 利空释放压力，优化交易结构。虽然伊核冲突因美国介入进一步升温，可能导 致全球风险释放，但这并不构成 A 股核心矛盾。如果因此出现明显下跌，建议 积极布局，因为全年 A 股市场投资机会依然看好。 对于未来美元走势及其影响有何看法？ 未来美元趋势性走弱将持续，这对全球资本流动和资产定价有重要影响。特朗 普上台后美元已显著走弱，最低跌至近三年低位。逻辑上，美国缩减贸易逆差 将冲击美债需求，加之财政空间有限，下半年可能转向财政扩张政策。美联储 降息大概率发生，美外利差收窄也利于美元走弱。历史上美元走弱期间，大宗 周期论剑｜冲突与波动，再议周期 20250622 摘要 美元趋势性走弱持续，受益于此，大宗商品和非美权益资产表现将优于 美股，中国资产尤其是港股将受益于港币联系汇率制度带来的流动性利 好。 下半年中国经济需求边际走弱，但风险整体可控。稳定资本市场政策支 持下，防御、稳健红利类方向及中报业绩占优方向韧性较强，周期板块 如制冷剂、农化、 ...