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《农产品》日报-20250829
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 02:44
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - **Grains and Oilseeds**: Domestic two - meal decline space is limited, with cost support. In the fourth quarter, global soybean supply is not loose. It's advisable to wait for the stabilization and go long at low prices in the 3000 - 3050 range. The bean - rapeseed price difference may widen again [2]. - **Pigs**: Pig spot prices are stable with small fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see. If the weight has room to decrease, the far - end has support. Pay attention to the support of the 01 contract around 13800 [3]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn is weak, and the futures price rebounds. In the medium term, the new - season corn cost decreases, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is obvious [6]. - **Oils**: Palm oil maintains a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength. For soybean oil, the industrial consumption in the US is uncertain, and the domestic basis quotation will be boosted after the inventory decreases [9]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar is expected to consolidate in the 15 - 17 cents/pound range. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be in a weak oscillation [11]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate in a range, and the far - end is under pressure after the new cotton is listed [12]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices maintain a bearish trend due to sufficient supply and slow market digestion [14]. 3. Summary by Variety Grains and Oilseeds - **Prices**: For soybeans, the spot price in Harbin is 3980 yuan/ton, and the futures price of the main contract is 3927 yuan/ton. For rapeseed meal, the spot price in Jiangsu is 2500 yuan/ton, and the futures price of RM2601 is 2483 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 225, and the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal is 75. The spot bean - rapeseed meal spread is 540 [2]. - **Profits**: The crushing profit of Brazilian October shipment is 70, with a 79.5% increase [2]. Pigs - **Futures**: The price of the main contract of live pigs 2511 is 13590 yuan/ton, and the price of 2601 is 13940 yuan/ton. The main contract basis is - 190, with a 42.42% increase [3]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Henan is 13750 yuan/ton [3]. - **Other Indicators**: The sample - point slaughter volume per day is 142240 heads, with a 0.32% increase [3]. Corn - **Futures**: The price of corn 2511 is 2185 yuan/ton, and the price of corn starch 2511 is 2493 yuan/ton [6]. - **Spreads**: The 11 - 3 spread of corn is - 15, and the 11 - 3 spread of corn starch is - 46 [6]. - **Profits**: The import profit is 452 yuan/ton, with a 2.33% increase [6]. Oils - **Prices**: The spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil is 8640 yuan/ton, and the futures price of Y2601 is 8464 yuan/ton [9]. - **Spreads**: The 09 - 01 spread of soybean oil is 74, and the spot bean - palm spread is - 830 [9]. - **Costs and Profits**: The import cost of palm oil in Guangzhou Port in January is 9758.7 yuan/ton, and the import profit is - 333 yuan/ton [9]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5602 yuan/ton, and the price of ICE raw sugar is 16.50 cents/pound [11]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning is 5910 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Indicators**: The national sugar production cumulative value is 1116.21 million tons, and the sales cumulative value is 955.00 million tons [11]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of cotton 2509 is 13690 yuan/ton, and the price of ICE US cotton is 67.28 cents/pound [12]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton is 15240 yuan/ton [12]. - **Industry Indicators**: The commercial inventory is 182.02 million tons, and the industrial inventory is 92.42 million tons [12]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the egg 09 contract is 2843 yuan/500KG, and the price of the 10 contract is 2930 yuan/500KG [14]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price is 3.26 yuan/jin [14]. - **Industry Indicators**: The egg - chick price is 3.20 yuan/feather, and the breeding profit is - 17.89 yuan/feather [14].