1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Affected by the decline in crude oil futures, the crude palm oil futures may further decline to around 4,500 ringgit. In China, the Dalian palm oil futures will first test the support at around 9,700 yuan, and there is a risk of further decline after breaking the 9,500 - yuan support [1]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil has a requirement for a stagflation callback. In China, after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, demand is expected to gradually increase, but with the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the basis quote is expected to remain stable [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The Zhengzhou rapeseed oil 05 contract is under pressure at the 10,000 - yuan mark. The spot market traders are bearish on the far - month rapeseed oil basis, and the far - month basis quote has dropped by 20 yuan/ton [1]. 2.2 Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are affected by energy prices. In the short term, raw sugar prices may fluctuate with oil prices. In China, the domestic sugar market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and sugar prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile and weak pattern [3]. 2.3 Cotton - ICE cotton futures rose. The global cotton production in 2026/27 is expected to decline by 4% to 24.9 million tons, while consumption remains stable. In China, the upward space of domestic cotton prices is restricted by the external market. Although the industrial fundamentals are sound, the follow - up needs to focus on downstream orders, new - year planting area, and weather [5]. 2.4 Red Dates - The jujube market is in the off - season. The prices in the main sales areas are loose, and the consumption is weak. The futures prices are expected to maintain a low - level volatile operation in the short term [7]. 2.5 Apples - The inventory structure of apple main producing areas is differentiated. The prices of high - quality apples are firm, while those of ordinary apples in Shandong are under pressure. The market sentiment has weakened, and the short - term disk is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [9]. 2.6 Corn - The price of corn in the Northeast is stable and weak, and that in North China has rebounded locally. The marginal demand is decreasing, but the limited remaining grain and rigid demand support the price. Attention should be paid to subsequent policy releases [11][13]. 2.7 Meal - The USDA's report shows an increase in US soybean planting area. The domestic soybean meal market is pessimistic, and the future supply pressure will continue to increase [14]. 2.8 Pigs - Pig prices continue to decline. The capacity reduction is slow, and the short - term market may be boosted by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a possibility of further decline under capacity pressure [16]. 2.9 Eggs - The supply of eggs is stable, and the demand has slowed down. After a slight decline in egg prices, the local breeding end is reluctant to sell, and the prices are expected to maintain a low - level volatile trend [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On April 1, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean oil was 9,000 yuan, down 100 yuan from March 31, a decrease of 1.11%; the futures price of Y2605 was 8,624 yuan, down 44 yuan, a decrease of 0.51%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 8,520 yuan, up 130 yuan, an increase of 1.32%; the futures price of P2605 was 9,780 yuan, down 86 yuan, a decrease of 0.87%. The spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil was 10,122 yuan, down 160 yuan, a decrease of 1.56%; the futures price of OI2605 was 9,884 yuan, down 164 yuan, a decrease of 1.66% [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of Y2605 was 476 yuan, up 144 yuan, an increase of 43.37%; the basis of P2605 was 205 yuan, up 216 yuan, an increase of 1963.64%; the basis of OI2605 was 402 yuan, up 4 yuan, an increase of 1.01%. The soybean oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) was 40 yuan, unchanged; the palm oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) was - 44 yuan, down 22 yuan, a decrease of 100.00%; the rapeseed oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) was 17 yuan, down 16 yuan, a decrease of 17.20% [1]. 3.2 Sugar - **Futures and Spot Markets**: On April 1, the futures price of SR2605 was 5,356 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan, a decrease of 0.78%; the futures price of SR2609 was 5,380 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan, a decrease of 0.94%. The spot price in Nanning was 5,440 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan, a decrease of 0.18%; the spot price in Kunming was 5,290 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan, a decrease of 0.09% [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 9.26 million tons, down 456,100 tons, a decrease of 4.69%; the cumulative national sugar sales were 3.45 million tons, down 1.3016 million tons, a decrease of 27.39%. The national sugar sales rate was 37.30%, down 11.60 percentage points, a decrease of 23.72% [3]. 3.3 Cotton - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of CF2605 was 15,245 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan, a decrease of 0.91%; the futures price of CF2609 was 15,375 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan, a decrease of 0.90%. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 16,632 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan, a decrease of 0.35%; the CC Index of 3128B was 16,797 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan, a decrease of 0.31% [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 0 tons, down 547,700 tons, a decrease of 100.0%; the industrial inventory was 102,400 tons, up 13,000 tons, an increase of 14.5%. The import volume was 166,500 tons, down 39,100 tons, a decrease of 19.0% [5]. 3.4 Red Dates - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of CJ2605 was 8,635 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan, a decrease of 1.31%; the futures price of CJ2607 was 8,835 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan, a decrease of 1.01%; the futures price of CJ2609 was 9,020 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan, a decrease of 0.99%. The Cangzhou special - grade spot price was 9,060 yuan/ton, unchanged [7]. - **Inventory**: As of April 1, the total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 4,457, equivalent to 22,285 tons of red dates [7]. 3.5 Apples - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of AP2605 was 9,860 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan, an increase of 0.35%; the futures price of AP2610 was 8,497 yuan/ton, down 246 yuan, a decrease of 2.81%. The basis was - 1,525 yuan/ton, down 91 yuan, a decrease of 6.35% [9]. - **Inventory and Market**: The national cold - storage inventory was 4.4179 million tons, down 266,400 tons, a decrease of 5.69%. The trading in the main producing areas was average, and the market sentiment has weakened [9]. 3.6 Corn - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of C2605 was 2,350 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, a decrease of 0.04%; the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price was 2,385 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan, an increase of 0.42%. The basis was 35 yuan, up 11 yuan, an increase of 45.83% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: In the Northeast, the price of wet corn is stable and weak; in North China, the price has rebounded locally. The demand of downstream enterprises is decreasing, but the limited remaining grain and rigid demand support the price [11][13]. 3.7 Meal - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3,180 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan, a decrease of 1.85%; the futures price of M2605 was 2,875 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan, a decrease of 1.37%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2,500 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan, a decrease of 0.79%; the futures price of RM2605 was 2,265 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan, a decrease of 1.48% [14]. - **Spreads and Profits**: The soybean meal inter - period spread (05 - 09) was - 87 yuan, down 14 yuan, a decrease of 19.18%; the rapeseed meal inter - period spread (05 - 09) was - 71 yuan, down 8 yuan, a decrease of 12.70%. The oil - meal ratio of the spot was 2.87, up 0.084, an increase of 3.02%; the oil - meal ratio of the main contract was 3.00, up 0.026, an increase of 0.88% [14]. 3.8 Pigs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of LH2605 was 9,610 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan, a decrease of 1.64%; the futures price of LH2607 was 10,605 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan, a decrease of 1.16%. The Henan spot price was 9,300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [16]. - **Industry Situation**: Pig prices continue to decline, the capacity reduction is slow, and the short - term market may be affected by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a risk of further decline [16]. 3.9 Eggs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of JD2605 was 3,440 yuan/500KG, down 25 yuan, a decrease of 0.73%; the futures price of JD2606 was 3,220 yuan/500KG, down 4 yuan, a decrease of 0.12%. The egg - producing area price was 3.31 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan, a decrease of 1.27% [19]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of eggs is stable, and the demand has slowed down. After a decline in egg prices, the local breeding end is reluctant to sell, and the prices are expected to be volatile at a low level [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oil and Fat Industry - Indonesia will implement the B50 biodiesel policy this year, increasing the palm oil blending ratio from 40% to 50%, strengthening the global vegetable oil demand in the biofuel field. Short - term BMD palm oil may still rise. In China, port palm oil inventory is at the second - highest level since 2022, with sufficient supply and weak demand, but import inversion supports the futures market. - Analysts expect the US soybean planting area in 2026 to increase to 84.7 million acres, with higher soybean inventories, which may suppress the soybean oil market. In China, the oil mill operating rate has decreased, and the soybean oil output has reduced, but the trading volume is light. - Affected by the Middle - East conflict and Indonesia's B50 policy, the Zhengzhou rapeseed oil futures mainly follow the international market and maintain a volatile adjustment pattern [1]. 2.2 Sugar Industry - The ICE raw sugar futures fell but had a monthly gain. The sugar price was dragged down by the adjustment of energy prices due to the situation in the Middle - East. Brazil has canceled the industrial product tax on diesel, and the sugar price may fluctuate with oil prices in the short term. In China, the beet sugar production is in line with expectations, and the cane sugar production exceeds expectations. The domestic sugar market has strong supply and weak demand, and the sugar price is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern [2]. 2.3 Cotton Industry - The ICE cotton futures fell due to the expected increase in the US cotton planting area in 2026. In China, the upward space of cotton prices is restricted by the external market. The "Golden March" peak season is ending, the new orders of textile enterprises have decreased significantly, and the inventory - clearing rhythm has slowed down. However, the downstream product inventory is at a low level, which supports the cotton price. Future focus should be on downstream orders, new - year planting area, and weather [3]. 2.4 Red Date Industry - The red date market is in the off - season, with weak consumption and inventory pressure. The futures warehouse receipts registration has decreased year - on - year. The market sentiment is weak, and the futures price is expected to maintain a low - level shock. Attention should be paid to the weather in the main production areas [4]. 2.5 Apple Industry - The Qingming Festival stocking was less than expected, and the apple shipment speed decreased. The performance of production areas was differentiated. The price of high - quality apples in Shaanxi was firm, while the ordinary apples in Shandong were under pressure. The market sentiment has weakened, and the short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the weather in the main production areas for the far - month contracts [5]. 2.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - In the northeast, the warming temperature increases the willingness of grain - holders to sell, but the limited remaining grain and the strong price - holding attitude of traders limit the decline. In North China, the price is stable as the grain - holders are reluctant to sell. The demand side has a weakening marginal demand in the north port, and the deep - processing enterprises have a low inventory and a slow procurement rhythm. The feed enterprises have rigid demand, and wheat substitution is increasing. The futures price is expected to stabilize and rebound slightly, but the policy grain supply and substitution limit the rebound space [8]. 2.7 Meal Industry - The USDA's report on the US soybean planting area was slightly lower than market expectations, and the US soybean futures rose slightly. In China, the soybean meal market has cooled down, and the spot trading volume has decreased. The overall inventory is not loose, but the market sentiment is pessimistic. The future supply pressure will increase, and soybean meal lacks effective support [10]. 2.8 Pig Industry - The pig price has shown a weak trend again. The second - fattening and end - of - month supply reduction have limited support for the price. The breeding side is still resistant, and there is no active capacity reduction. The futures price has fallen across the board, and the far - month contracts are more affected by the expected capacity pressure. The short - term price may be boosted by the second - fattening sentiment, but the high feed price and limited profit space for large pigs require further observation [12]. 2.9 Egg Industry - On the supply side, the number of old hens being culled is increasing slightly, and the overall egg supply is stable. On the demand side, the demand support weakens after the Qingming Festival stocking. The market inventory is at a certain level, and the egg price is expected to maintain a low - level shock and a weak trend [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil and Fat Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.22% to 9000 yuan, and the futures price of Y2605 decreased by 0.53% to 8668 yuan. The basis was 05 + 320, down 10 points. - Palm oil: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 1.65% to 9855 yuan, and the futures price of P2605 decreased by 0.64% to 9930 yuan. The basis was P2605 - 11, down 11 points. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 0.21% to 10282 yuan, and the futures price of OI605 decreased by 0.07% to 9884 yuan. The basis was OI605 + 398, down 15 points [1]. 3.1.2 Inventory and Supply - Demand - Palm oil: The inventory in Chinese ports is at a high level, and the supply is sufficient. The production in Malaysia from March 1 - 25 decreased by 11.21% month - on - month. - Soybean oil: Analysts expect the US soybean planting area to increase, and the domestic oil mill operating rate has decreased, with reduced output but light trading volume. - Rapeseed oil: Affected by the Middle - East conflict and Indonesia's policy, the market sentiment is boosted [1]. 3.2 Sugar Industry 3.2.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of sugar 2605 decreased by 0.79% to 2388 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar 2609 decreased by 0.66% to 5431 yuan/ton. - Spot: The price in Nanning decreased by 0.55% to 5450 yuan/ton, and the price in Kunming decreased by 0.56% to 5295 yuan/ton. The basis in Nanning increased by 33.33%, and the basis in Kunming increased by 11.21% [2]. 3.2.2 Industry Situation - The national sugar production decreased by 4.69% to 926 million tons, and the sales volume decreased by 27.39% to 345 million tons. The production in Guangxi decreased by 8.36% to 565.13 million tons, and the monthly sales volume increased by 20.16% to 162.23 million tons. The national sugar sales rate decreased by 23.72% to 37.30%, and the sales rate in Guangxi decreased by 24.60% to 35.25%. The national industrial inventory increased by 17.03% to 581 million tons [2]. 3.3 Cotton Industry 3.3.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of cotton 2605 decreased by 0.65% to 15295 yuan/ton, and the price of cotton 2609 decreased by 0.64% to 15430 yuan/ton. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 0.21% to 16691 yuan/ton, and the CC Index: 3128B decreased by 0.16% to 16820 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3.2 Industry Situation - The commercial inventory decreased by 100% to 0, the industrial inventory increased by 14.5% to 102.40 million tons, the import volume decreased by 19.0% to 16.65 million tons, and the bonded - area inventory increased by 9.8% to 47.10 million tons. The yarn inventory days decreased by 1.2% to 21.45 days, and the grey - cloth inventory days increased by 0.3% to 33.24 days. The textile enterprise's processing profit decreased by 1.3% to - 2255 yuan/ton [3]. 3.4 Red Date Industry 3.4.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of red date 2605 decreased by 0.28% to 8750 yuan/ton, the price of red date 2607 decreased by 0.39% to 8925 yuan/ton, and the price of red date 2609 decreased by 0.55% to 9110 yuan/ton. - Spot: The price of Cangzhou's special - grade red dates decreased by 0.22% to 9060 yuan/ton, and the price of first - grade red dates remained unchanged at 7900 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4.2 Industry Situation - The market is in the off - season, with weak consumption and inventory pressure. The futures warehouse receipts and effective forecasts decreased by 0.09% to 4400 [4]. 3.5 Apple Industry 3.5.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of apple 2605 decreased by 0.38% to 9826 yuan/ton, and the price of apple 2610 decreased by 0.23% to 8743 yuan/ton. - Spot: The price performance in different production areas is differentiated, with high - quality apples in Shaanxi being firm and ordinary apples in Shandong under pressure [5]. 3.5.2 Industry Situation - The Qingming Festival stocking was less than expected, and the apple shipment speed decreased. The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 5.69% to 441.79 million tons [5]. 3.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry 3.6.1 Price Changes - Corn: The price of corn 2605 in Jinzhou Port increased by 0.21% to 2351 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 9.38% to - 29 yuan/ton. - Corn starch: The price of corn starch 2605 increased by 0.29% to 2745 yuan, and the basis decreased by 3.96% to 218 yuan [8]. 3.6.2 Industry Situation - In the northeast, the supply and demand situation is affected by the temperature and the attitude of grain - holders. In North China, the price is stable due to the reluctance of grain - holders to sell. The demand side has different situations in different sectors [8]. 3.7 Meal Industry 3.7.1 Price Changes - Soybean meal: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3240 yuan, and the futures price of M2605 decreased by 0.75% to 2915 yuan. The basis increased by 7.26% to 325 yuan. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.79% to 2520 yuan, and the futures price of RM2605 decreased by 0.91% to 2299 yuan. The basis increased by 0.45% to 221 yuan [10]. 3.7.2 Industry Situation - The USDA's report on the US soybean planting area affected the market. The domestic soybean meal market has cooled down, and the future supply pressure will increase [10]. 3.8 Pig Industry 3.8.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of the main contract of pigs decreased by 2.35% to 9770 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 7 spread increased by 9.43% to - 960 yuan/ton. - Spot: The prices in different regions had different changes, with the price in Shandong increasing by 50 yuan to 9900 yuan/ton [12]. 3.8.2 Industry Situation - The pig price is weak, and the capacity reduction is slow. The second - fattening sentiment may support the price, but the feed price is high [12]. 3.9 Egg Industry 3.9.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of egg 04 decreased by 2.11% to 3200 yuan/500KG, and the price of egg 05 decreased by 0.38% to 3440 yuan/500KG. - Spot: The egg price in the production area decreased by 2.72% to 3.35 yuan/jin [15]. 3.9.2 Industry Situation - The supply is stable, and the demand support weakens after the Qingming Festival stocking. The market inventory is at a certain level, and the egg price is expected to be weak [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soft Commodity Sector** - **Sugar**: International sugar supply surplus has improved, and domestic sugar market fundamentals are also improving. Zhengzhou sugar may rise in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously after the main contract stabilizes on a pullback [3]. - **Pulp**: The cost support of pulp mills is emerging, but the improvement in fundamentals is limited, and the upward space of pulp may be restricted. It is recommended to operate with a short - bias in the range [4]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The spot market is stable, but the demand improvement in the peak season is limited. It is recommended to operate in the range with a short - bias [6]. - **Cotton**: The medium - term support of the cotton market remains unchanged, and the short - term futures price is expected to return to a relatively strong shock. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [7]. - **Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Sector** - **Apple**: There is limited new driving force, and the futures price may continue to fluctuate in the high - level range. It is recommended to return to a wait - and - see state [8]. - **Jujube**: The futures price shows characteristics of having a ceiling and a floor. It is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points in the 2605 contract, and for long - position holders, it is recommended to buy protective put options at the same time. Cautious investors can hold the reverse spread of short 2605 and long 2609 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Futures** - **Apple 2605**: Return to wait - and - see. The supply side provides support, but the consumption support is insufficient, and the futures price continues to fluctuate in the high - level range. The support interval is 9000 - 9200, and the pressure interval is 11000 - 11500 [18]. - **Jujube 2605**: Short - term buying on dips. The expected production reduction may gradually be reflected in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory begins to peak and decline. The support interval is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure interval is 9500 - 9800 [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - **Sugar 2605**: Go long after stabilization. The international sugar supply surplus situation has improved, and the supply and demand fundamentals in China are improving, but the supply is still sufficient. The support interval is 5250 - 5300, and the pressure interval is 5600 - 5650 [18]. - **Pulp 2605**: Short on rallies. The rise in the outer - disk price of broad - leaf pulp drives the pulp futures to strengthen, but the peak - season demand for finished paper needs to be verified, and the improvement in the supply and demand of bleached softwood pulp is limited. The support interval is 5000 - 5100, and the pressure interval is 5350 - 5400 [18]. - **Double - offset Paper 2605**: Operate in the range. The spot market is stable, but the demand has entered the off - season. In the short term, pay attention to the support situation after the futures price further declines and the basis widens. The support interval is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure interval is 4250 - 4300 [18]. - **Cotton 2605**: Hold long positions cautiously. The significant increase in imported cotton and cotton yarn exerts short - term pressure, but the outer - disk stabilizes and rebounds, and the medium - term upward expectation of the futures price remains unchanged. The support interval is 14900 - 15000, and the pressure interval is 16300 - 16500 [18]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In January 2026, the export volume of fresh apples was about 99,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.14% and a year - on - year increase of 9.44%. In February, it was about 79,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.83% and a year - on - year increase of 15.96%. As of March 25, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 4.4179 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 266,400 tons. As of March 26, it was 3.8947 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 294,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 217,900 tons [19]. - **Spot Market Situation**: In the Shandong production area, the price of late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in stock is stable, and the transaction in cold storage is average. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price is stable, and the cold - storage packaging volume is acceptable for the Tomb - sweeping Festival. In the sales area, the arrival of goods is stable, the overall sales speed is average, and the mainstream price is stable [19][20][21]. - **Jujube Market**: As of March 5, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year increase of 7.39%. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is stable [22]. - **Sugar Market**: In the first half of March, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 29.67% year - on - year, the sugar - making ratio decreased by 25.27 percentage points year - on - year, and the sugar production decreased by 88.60% year - on - year. In India, the sugar - making work in the 2025/26 crushing season is coming to an end. In Thailand, as of March 25, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume increased by 8.81% year - on - year, and the sugar production increased by 12.01% year - on - year. As of March 25, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased by 6 week - on - week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased by 219,700 tons. India announced that the domestic sugar sales quota for April 2026 was 2.3 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons compared with the same period last year. As of March 24, the non - commercial net long position of ICE sugar was - 95,804 contracts [24]. - **Pulp Market**: After the Spring Festival, the price of South American BHK pulp increased by $10 per ton in February, and the seller announced another price increase of $20 per ton in March, which led to cautious waiting and seeing from buyers. The domestic market transaction is weak, many factories shut down, and the port inventory increases by 205,000 tons [26]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: Last Thursday, the inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% compared with the previous Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points week - on - week. The industry's overall inventory - reduction speed decreased. This week, the operating load rate of double - offset paper was 57.43%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points week - on - week, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.67 percentage points week - on - week [27]. - **Cotton Market**: As of March 28, the net export contract of Egyptian cotton in two weeks was 1,544 tons, and the signing volume of India and Pakistan increased, while China cancelled some contracts. As of March 30, 2026, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 47,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.04% [28]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: The closing prices of apple 2605, jujube 2605, sugar 2605, pulp 2605, and cotton 2605 were 9826, 8750, 5398, 5124, and 15295 respectively, with daily declines of 37, 25, 43, 58, and 90 respectively, and daily decline rates of 0.38%, 0.28%, 0.79%, 1.12%, and 0.58% respectively [29]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot prices of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, double - offset paper, and cotton were 4.45 yuan per catty, 9.40 yuan per kilogram, 5420 yuan per ton, 5180 yuan (Shandong Yinxing), 4350 yuan (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin), and 16850 yuan per ton respectively. The环比 changes were 0, - 0.10, - 40, 0, 0, and 27 respectively, and the year - on - year changes were 0.45, - 5.30, - 750, - 1300, - 800, and 1969 respectively [34]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary is provided in the given text, only relevant figures are mentioned. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - **Apple**: The 5 - 10 spread is 1083, with a week - on - week decrease of 17 and a year - on - year increase of 954. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long on dips [54]. - **Jujube**: The 5 - 9 spread is - 360, with a week - on - week increase of 25 and a year - on - year increase of 5. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. - **Sugar**: The 5 - 9 spread is - 33, with a week - on - week decrease of 7 and a year - on - year decrease of 139. It is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [54]. - **Cotton**: The 5 - 9 spread is - 135, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 and a year - on - year increase of 5. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [54]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific data summary is provided in the given text, only relevant figures are mentioned. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt quantities of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton are 0, 4269, 16862, 189631, and 12420 respectively. The环比 changes are 0, - 4, 0, 1468, and - 15 respectively, and the year - on - year changes are 0, - 2796, - 10548, - 185592, and 3170 respectively [88]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data summary is provided in the given text, only relevant figures are mentioned.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Oscillating [2] - Apple: Bullish with oscillations [5] - Logs: Oscillating [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The US Department of Agriculture's new - year cotton planting intentions exceeded market expectations. ICE cotton futures gave back previous gains, while domestic Zhengzhou cotton maintained an oscillating trend. The "Golden March" for downstream products is coming to an end, and the increase in subsequent orders remains to be seen. Overall, Zhengzhou cotton maintains a relatively strong stance [2]. - Apple cold - storage trading in production areas is somewhat light. Before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, merchants' enthusiasm for restocking is low. The contradiction between high prices and limited consumer acceptance still exists, and the listing of seasonal fruits in April will suppress the upward space of futures prices. The market is also facing delivery disturbances in the short term, and the price may maintain an oscillating trend [5]. - The domestic log supply is highly dependent on imports. The inventory shows the characteristics of "de - stocking before the festival and inventory accumulation after the festival". The increase in import costs provides strong support for futures prices. The demand for logs is mainly from the real - estate construction sector, and the real - estate industry is still in an adjustment period, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation. In the short term, prices may oscillate between 790 - 810 yuan per cubic meter [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume was 397,954, and the open interest was 1,077,502. The settlement prices were 15,330 for May, 15,460 for September, and 15,880 for January. The settlement price of the ICE May contract was 70.00, down 19 points; July was 72.13, down 29 points; December was 74.34, down 27 points, with a trading volume of about 113,000 lots [2]. Important Information - From January to February 2026, the yarn output of large - scale enterprises was 3.308 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5% [2]. - In December 2025, the sales of clothing and clothing fabrics by US wholesalers were $13.443 billion, a year - on - year increase of 2.47% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.63% [2]. - Last week, 3,700 tons of US cotton were inspected, with a cumulative inspection of 3.0544 million tons [2]. - On March 30, the cotton yarn futures reduced trading volume and open interest, and the price declined, while the spot price remained stable. The sales price of cotton yarn from spinning enterprises was slightly weak, and some enterprises with rising inventories sold at discounted prices. The operating rate of the downstream weaving market remained at a high level, with good sales of 40S compact - spun yarn, and the supply shortage of about 60S high - count yarn was alleviated, but the price remained firm [2]. Market Logic - The US Department of Agriculture's new - year cotton planting intentions exceeded market expectations, causing ICE cotton futures to give back previous gains. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton maintained an oscillating trend. The "Golden March" for downstream products is coming to an end, and the increase in subsequent orders remains to be seen. Overall, Zhengzhou cotton maintains a relatively strong stance [2]. Trading Strategy - For the 05 contract, gradually roll over long positions below 15,300 yuan per ton to the 09 contract and control the position [2]. Apple Market Review - The apple futures price declined, and the main contract was shifted. The closing price of the 2605 contract was 9,826 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.38% [5]. Important Information - In Shandong, the price of bagged late - Fuji apples (80) was 3.80 - 4.00 yuan per catty (striped red, first - and second - grade); the price of bagged late - Fuji apples (above 80) was 3.00 - 3.50 yuan per catty (striped red, general goods); the price of bagged late - Fuji apples (above 80) of the third - grade was 2.50 - 2.80 yuan per catty; the price of striped 80 first - and second - grade apples was 4.10 - 4.50 yuan per catty [5]. - In Shaanxi, the price of bagged late - Fuji apples (starting from 70) of semi - commercial grade was 4.70 - 4.80 yuan per catty. In the Weinan production area, there was a small amount of merchant - sourced goods left in cold storage, mainly self - shipped, with little procurement for transfer. The market was stable. The current price of late - Fuji apples (starting from 75) of general goods was about 4.00 yuan per catty [5]. - In Gansu, the price of late - Fuji apples (above 75) of mountain - grown semi - commercial grade in Renda Town was about 4.50 yuan per catty [5]. Market Logic - Apple cold - storage trading in production areas is somewhat light. Before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, merchants' enthusiasm for restocking is low. The contradiction between high prices and limited consumer acceptance still exists, and the listing of seasonal fruits in April will suppress the upward space of futures prices. The market is also facing delivery disturbances in the short term, and the price may maintain an oscillating trend [5]. Trading Strategy - Maintain a bullish view on the 05 contract. Reduce long positions below 10,000 yuan per ton [5]. Logs Market Review - The log futures price declined. The closing price of the main 2605 contract was 820.0 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 0.67% [7]. Important Information - The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from yesterday and down 10 yuan per cubic meter from last week; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from yesterday and down 10 yuan per cubic meter from last week [7]. - As of January 23, the total domestic coniferous log inventory decreased by 3.11% to 2.49 million cubic meters; the radiata pine inventory decreased by 2.3% to 2.12 million cubic meters, and the inventories of North American timber and spruce - fir both decreased by 10,000 tons [7]. - The average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 63,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 900 from last week [7]. Market Logic - The domestic log supply is highly dependent on imports, with New Zealand accounting for 64% of imports. From January to February 2026, New Zealand's log shipping rhythm first decreased and then increased. The inventory shows the characteristics of "de - stocking before the festival and inventory accumulation after the festival". The increase in import costs provides strong support for futures prices. The demand for logs is mainly from the real - estate construction sector, and the real - estate industry is still in an adjustment period, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation. In the short term, prices may oscillate between 790 - 810 yuan per cubic meter [7]. Trading Strategy - The 05 contract of logs will oscillate [7].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][7][8] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: The global cotton market supply - demand pattern is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season. In China, due to increased consumption and potential production cuts, the medium - long - term cotton price center may rise, but short - term upside is limited by internal - external price differences and policy factors [2][3] - Sugar: Internationally, the raw sugar remains strong, and the Brazilian sugar - making ratio may decline. Domestically, there is an oversupply with high industrial inventory, and the upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is weak, but it has strong support due to the Middle East situation [5][7] - Pulp: The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026, but domestic demand is insufficient, and port inventory remains high. The pulp price is likely to consolidate at a low level in the short term [8] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 15,295 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton (-0.58%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,691 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16,850 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton. The USDA's 2026/27 crop planting intention report shows that the expected cotton planting area in the US is 9.64 million acres, up 3.9% year - on - year [1] Sugar - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,398 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton (-0.79%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,420 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,295 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The consulting firm Safras&Mercado predicts that Brazil's sugar export volume in the 2026/27 season may decrease by 14.2% to 29 million tons, and production will drop to 40.3 million tons, while ethanol production will increase by 10.7% to 42.58 billion liters [4] Pulp - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,124 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton (-1.12%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,155 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,790 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton. In February 2026, the total European port inventory increased by 15.34% month - on - month and 2.99% year - on - year [7] Group 4: Market Analysis Cotton - International: The Middle East conflict causes oil price fluctuations, and the macro - level impact on cotton prices needs attention. The global supply - demand pattern is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season. Domestic: In the 25/26 season, domestic cotton production increased significantly, but consumption also increased. The "Golden March and Silver April" peak season is expected to be good, and inventory may be tight at the end of the year. There is a production cut expectation for new crops [2] Sugar - International: The raw sugar is strong, and the Brazilian sugar - making ratio may decline due to geopolitical conflicts. Domestic: The sugarcane harvest is delayed, production increases more than expected, and the industry is in a inventory - building stage with high industrial inventory and increased imports [5] Pulp - Supply: Overseas new production capacity is limited in the past two years, and major overseas broadleaf pulp mills have announced production cuts and conversion plans. If European and American consumption improves, the pressure on China's imports may be relieved. Demand: Although there is a large amount of finished paper production capacity in China, terminal demand is insufficient, and port inventory remains high. In 2026, the demand for pulp is expected to improve [8] Group 5: Strategies - Cotton: Adopt a neutral strategy. Pay attention to new - year target price policies, planting area reduction, and potential reserve - releasing policies [3] - Sugar: Adopt a neutral strategy. Consider the sugar price as oscillating in the short term due to supply - demand and geopolitical factors [7] - Pulp: Adopt a neutral strategy. The pulp price is likely to consolidate at a low level in the short term due to high inventory [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For sugar, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar showed signs of stabilizing overnight. With the volatile Middle - East situation, the ethanol - to - sugar price conversion and sugar mills' adjustment of the sugar - making ratio need to be monitored. The sugar - making ratio in the 26/27 crushing season may decline, and the raw sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the medium term, the expected reduction in Brazil's output may offset part of the oversupply. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar's price center has risen due to the boost from the external market, and the impact of macro factors on the market should be noted [5]. - For cotton, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly overnight. The import expectation and the previously rumored additional processing trade import quota (sliding duty) for cotton have been implemented, and the issuance time is earlier than before, which may put some pressure on cotton prices in the short term. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate in the near future. In the long - term, with increased consumption and last year's low carry - over inventory, the supply this year is expected to be tight. Considering the policy - regulated planting area, the general trend of Zhengzhou cotton remains unchanged [5]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Sugar Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of sugar contracts SR2609, SR2605, and SR2611 were 5431, 5398, and 5455 respectively, with price drops of - 36, - 43, and - 30 and percentage drops of - 0.66%, - 0.79%, and - 0.55% respectively. The 11 - number sugar contracts 2610, 2607, and 2605 had previous day closing prices of 16.04, 15.67, and 16.04 respectively, with price drops of - 0.11, - 0.1, and - 0.11 and percentage drops of - 0.68%, - 0.63%, and - 0.68% respectively [2]. - **Cotton Futures**: No detailed futures - related data for cotton is provided in the report. Spot Market - **Sugar Spot**: The current spot prices of white sugar in Liuzhou and Kunming are 5460 and 5295 respectively. The current basis for Liuzhou and Kunming relative to SR2509 is 5 and - 160 respectively. The quota - within and quota - outside import prices from Brazil are 3331 and 4239 respectively, and from Thailand are 3847 and 4912 respectively [2]. Industry News - **Yunnan Sugar Production**: The first sugar mill in Yunnan finished crushing in late March. Due to increased sugarcane production, most sugar mills may extend their production time, and the crushing end time may be postponed, making the sugar output in this crushing season uncertain. In March, strong winds and continuous rainfall in Yunnan affected sugarcane cutting and transportation, reducing the amount of sugarcane for crushing. The estimated single - month sugar production in Yunnan in March is 56 - 58 tons, less than last year's 60.85 tons [3]. - **Brazil Sugar Production and Export**: In the 2026/27 season starting in April, Brazil's sugar export volume may decrease by 14.2% to 2.9 billion tons from 3.38 billion tons in the 2025/26 season. The sugar production in 2026/27 is expected to drop from 4.35 billion tons to 4.03 billion tons as sugar mills tend to use more sugarcane for ethanol production due to high energy prices [3]. - **India Sugar Production**: In the 2025 - 26 crushing season, the sugar - cane crushing in Maharashtra, India, is nearing the end. As of March 24, 2026, 183 out of 210 sugar mills have finished crushing. The sugar output in the state has reached 9.8838 million tons, with a current average sugar - extraction rate of 9.48% [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second quarter of 2026, Zhengzhou cotton may face risks of oscillating decline. Attention should be paid to macro - factors, downstream demand, and weather in major producing countries. In the long - term, a relatively optimistic view is held for both domestic and international cotton, and opportunities to buy long - term contracts on dips are recommended. The estimated range for Zhengzhou cotton in 2026 is 14,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the estimated operating range for ICE cotton is 60 - 80 cents/pound [105][106] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In Q1 of 2026, the outer - market cotton first declined and then rebounded. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton continued to rise to around 15,500 yuan/ton. The spread between domestic and foreign cotton remained at a high level, reaching over 4,000 yuan/ton at one point and then narrowing to over 3,000 yuan/ton [2][4][5] 3.2 Impact of Middle - East Geopolitical Conflicts on Cotton - The impacts are multi - faceted, including fiber substitution (positive), cost increase (positive), supply reduction (positive), inflation (positive), and negative impacts on industrial demand. Overall, the impact is neutral [7] 3.3 Domestic Cotton Fundamental Analysis - **Commercial Inventory**: It has entered the seasonal destocking period. As of March 15, the national commercial inventory increased slightly by 52,100 tons year - on - year, while the Xinjiang commercial inventory decreased by 129,100 tons year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed [12] - **Industrial Inventory**: As of the end of February, the national cotton industrial inventory was at the highest level in the same period in history for nearly four months. As of March 15, the national industrial inventory decreased to 902,700 tons, a decrease of 54,600 tons compared with the same period last year [17] - **Planting Area**: The reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang may be less than previously expected. It is initially estimated that the planting area in 2026 will be reduced by about 3%, and the output is expected to remain above 7 million tons [21] - **Import**: The 300,000 - ton sliding - scale tariff processing trade quota has narrowed the domestic - foreign spread but it remains high. In January - February 2026, cotton imports totaled 370,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41%, and棉纱 imports totaled 290,000 tons, an increase of about 80,000 tons year - on - year [26] - **Textile Industry**: The "Golden March" textile peak season was realized, but there may be pre - emptive demand. The new orders in late March decreased significantly. The textile enterprises' product inventory is low, but the social inventory of cotton yarn has risen to a relatively high level [33][40] - **Terminal Textile and Apparel**: In January - February 2026, the export of textile and apparel totaled 50.45 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. The domestic retail sales of textile and apparel increased by 10.4% year - on - year, and the online retail sales of wearing goods increased by 18% year - on - year [51][55] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In the 2025/2026 period, the supply - demand is expected to be in a tight balance. In the 2026/2027 period, the supply - demand gap is expected to widen [58][59][60] 3.4 International Cotton Fundamental Analysis - **US Cotton**: The export signing progress of old - crop cotton is still slow, but it is expected to meet the export target. The USDA's intended planting area in late March increased slightly year - on - year. The weather has a greater impact on the yield of new - crop cotton. The initial assessment of the 2026/2027 supply - demand pattern shows a slightly loose balance under normal weather conditions [67][76][85] - **Brazilian Cotton**: The planting area and output are expected to decline slightly. The 2025/2026 total output is expected to be 3.795 million tons, and the planting area is expected to be 2.0136 million hectares [88][89] - **Global Supply - Demand**: In the 2025/2026 period, the global supply - demand is in a loose balance. In the 2026/2027 period, the supply - demand is expected to tighten, but high oil prices bring great uncertainties to the demand outlook [90][99] 3.5 Market Summary and Outlook - **2026 Q2**: Zhengzhou cotton may face risks of oscillating decline. Attention should be paid to macro - factors, downstream demand, and weather in major producing countries. The outer - market may also experience oscillations, and the price center is expected to move up slightly compared with Q1 [105][108] - **Long - term**: A relatively optimistic view is held for both domestic and international cotton. The estimated range for Zhengzhou cotton in 2026 is 14,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the estimated operating range for ICE cotton is 60 - 80 cents/pound [106]

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is an agricultural products morning report released by the agricultural products team of the research center on April 1, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Corn/Starch Market Data - From March 25 to March 31, 2026, the price in Jinzhou decreased by 10 yuan, the price in Shekou decreased by 10 yuan, the basis decreased by 15 yuan, the trade profit remained unchanged, the import profit increased by 7 yuan, the basis of starch decreased by 8 yuan, and the processing profit increased by 10 yuan [3] Market Analysis - Short - term: The supply of corn is tight, which supports the price, but the increase in the supply of policy wheat and the expected increase in market circulation may suppress the price; for starch, the high price affects sales, but the tight supply of raw materials supports the price, and the slow recovery of downstream consumption may limit price increases [4] - Long - term: For corn, focus on import and domestic auction policies; for starch, focus on downstream consumption rhythm and inventory changes [4] Group 3: Sugar Market Data - From March 25 to March 31, 2026, the price in Liuzhou decreased by 20 yuan, the price in Nanning decreased by 40 yuan, the price in Kunming decreased by 30 yuan, and the basis increased by 23 yuan, while the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [5] Market Analysis - International market: The fundamentals are slightly stronger, with India lowering the production forecast and ISO lowering the expected global surplus in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season. Crude oil prices affect raw sugar valuation [5] - Domestic market: After the festival, there are discussions about import policies, the futures market fluctuates strongly. Low - cost imported sugar and high - pressure on the spot market limit the upside [5][6] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Market Data - From March 25 to March 31, 2026, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 110 yuan, the price of imported M - grade US cotton increased by 1, the import profit decreased, the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 103, the price of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 20, the import profit of Vietnamese yarn increased by 37, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 96 [7] Market Analysis - The low initial inventory offsets most of the increase in production. With the expansion of domestic textile production, good downstream profits, and consumption - promotion policies, cotton demand is expected to improve. The decrease in Xinjiang's planting area in the new season makes cotton suitable for long - term long positions [7] Group 5: Eggs Market Data - From March 25 to March 31, 2026, the price in Shandong decreased by 0.20 yuan, the price in Henan decreased by 0.15 yuan, the price in Hubei decreased by 0.09 yuan, the basis decreased by 51 yuan, the price of white - feather broilers increased by 0.05 yuan, and the price of live pigs decreased by 0.15 yuan [9] Market Analysis - The slowdown in the culling of laying hens may be due to farmers' active delay in culling. The increase in the number of chicks replenished from January to February and the good replenishment sentiment from March to April slow down the process of capacity reduction. However, the increase in feed costs compresses the profit margin of egg - laying hen farming. The market is treated in a reverse - spread pattern [10] Group 6: Apples Market Data - From March 25 to March 31, 2026, the national inventory increased by 7, the Shandong inventory increased by 37, and the Shaanxi inventory increased by 20 [11] Market Analysis - The apple market mainly trades high - quality goods, with stable overall transactions. In the western region, the supply of high - quality goods is limited, and the number of merchants decreases in the second half of the week. In Shandong, the number of merchants looking for high - quality goods increases, and the price of high - quality goods is stable and slightly firm. The sales atmosphere in the sales area is not strong, and there is no obvious backlog in the transit warehouse [11] Group 7: Pigs Market Data - From March 25 to March 31, 2026, the price in Anhui decreased by 0.15 yuan, the price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.15 yuan, and the basis increased by 235 yuan [11] Market Analysis - The spot price rebounded slightly on the weekend. The reduction in supply by some farmers at the end of the month, the replenishment of second - fattening pigs at low prices, and the enhanced sentiment of some retail farmers to hold back sales, but the demand is limited. There is still pressure to reduce production and inventory in the near term, and the low - level fluctuations increase. Pay attention to the evolution of capacity reduction [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic situation shows a mixed picture, with some indicators improving while others facing challenges. The geopolitical situation, especially the Iran - US conflict, has significant impacts on the global economy, trade, and financial markets. Central banks are implementing various monetary policies to maintain economic stability and promote growth [1][2][13] - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile and relatively strong performance in the second quarter, and attention should be paid to international situation changes and crude oil import conditions [21] - The stock market is volatile, with different sectors showing different trends, and the public - offering fund market is making progress in implementing performance comparison benchmark regulations [30][31] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter and the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in March 2026 was 50.4%, up from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI: business activity was 50.1%, slightly down from the previous month [1] - In February 2026, social financing scale was 23855 billion yuan, M0, M1, and M2 year - on - year growth rates were 14.1%, 5.9%, and 9.0% respectively. New RMB loans were 9000 billion yuan. CPI was 1.3% year - on - year, and PPI was - 0.9% year - on - year [1] - In February 2026, fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year growth was 1.8%, and social consumer goods retail sales cumulative year - on - year growth was 2.8%. Exports and imports in February 2026 increased by 39.60% and 13.80% year - on - year respectively [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The US, Iran are willing to end the war, but Iran requires guarantees. The Iran - US conflict may cause significant GDP losses in Arab countries, rising unemployment, and increased poverty [2] - The Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee suggests integrating incremental and stock policies, using various tools for monetary policy regulation, and maintaining financial market stability [3] 3.2.2 Metals - Goldman Sachs raised the Q2 2026 LME aluminum price forecast to $3450 from $3200. On March 31, domestic tin and copper inventories reached new lows, while aluminum inventory reached a new high [4] - Three Middle - Eastern aluminum plants cut production by about 2.63 million tons. On March 31, the gold持仓 of SPDR Gold Trust increased by 0.11% to 1047.28 tons [5] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In mid - March, the price of rebar increased by 0.83% month - on - month to 3189.1 yuan/ton, the price of coke decreased by 2.08% month - on - month to 1346.4 yuan/ton, and the price of coking coal increased by 0.4% month - on - month to 1420.7 yuan/ton [6] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - US API crude oil inventory increased by 10.263 million barrels last week, causing oil prices to fall. Sadara Chemical Company temporarily shut down due to supply chain disruptions. Iran's oil discount has narrowed, and the average selling price has risen. The US Treasury Secretary said the oil market has a daily supply shortage of 10 - 12 million barrels [7] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In mid - March, the prices of soybean meal, soybeans, and cotton increased by 6.82%, 2.98%, and 2.15% month - on - month respectively, reaching new highs [9] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On March 31, the central bank conducted 32.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 15 billion yuan [10] 3.3.2 Important News - The US and Iran are willing to end the war, but there is no formal negotiation yet. Iran listed 18 US ICT and AI - related companies as "legitimate targets" [11][12] - China's economic sentiment improved in March, with manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI output indexes all returning to the expansion range [14] - From January to February, state - owned enterprises' total operating income increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the profit decreased by 2% year - on - year. The asset - liability ratio at the end of February was 65.4%, up 0.5 percentage points year - on - year [15] - A number of national regulations will be implemented in April. The Ministry of Finance announced the issuance arrangements for key - term, short - term, and ultra - long - term treasury bonds in Q2 2026 [15][16] - In February, government bond net financing decreased by 292.53 billion yuan year - on - year, and corporate bond net financing decreased by 18.02 billion yuan year - on - year. At the end of February, the bond market custody balance was 198.9 trillion yuan, with foreign institutions holding 3.4 trillion yuan [16] - New special bonds issuance accelerated in Q1 2026, reaching 1.1599 trillion yuan, a 21% increase from the same period in 2025 [17] - The trading association supported 370+ enterprises to issue 1.06 trillion yuan of science and technology innovation bonds. New bond indexes will be launched on April 1 [17][18] - Global central banks are selling US Treasury bonds at the fastest pace in more than a decade. The market trading logic has shifted from inflation trading to recession trading [18] - Some bond - related events include bond redemption options, asset transfers, and rating changes [19] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market was volatile, with most major interest - rate bond yields rising slightly. Treasury bond futures mostly strengthened. The inter - bank market liquidity was very loose [20][21] - The exchange - traded bond market had mixed performance, with some bonds rising and some falling. The convertible bond index and related indexes also showed different trends [21][22] - Money market interest rates mostly declined, and the yields of some domestic and foreign bonds also changed [22][24][25] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 49 basis points at the 16:30 close. The US dollar index fell 0.62%, and most non - US currencies rose [26] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that accelerating the revitalization of existing assets helps local platforms transform and serve economic growth. The acceleration of government debt clearance for enterprises is expected to repair the balance sheets and valuations of industries such as construction [27][28] - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the "South - bound Bond Connect" meets the needs of institutional diversification, and the Hong Kong bond market may expand, providing more choices for global asset allocation [28] 3.4 Stock Market News - The A - share market declined, with some sectors rising and some falling. The Hong Kong stock market had a mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising slightly and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling [30][31] - The public - offering fund market is making progress in implementing performance comparison benchmark regulations [31] 3.5 Today's Reminder - On April 1, 132 bonds were listed, 120 bonds were issued, 55 bonds were due for payment, and 173 bonds paid principal and interest [29]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton spot trading is mostly sluggish, and the spot basis is generally stable. The mainstream lower sales basis of 2025/26 southern Xinjiang Kashi machine - picked 3129/29B is CF05 + 1100 - 1200, and that of 2025/26 northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B is CF05 + 1300 - 1550 [2] - The overall quotation of pure cotton yarn is stable, and the sales are average. The trading center of some categories of a few open - end spinning enterprises has declined steadily, and individual traders have a large negotiation space for sales [2] - The ICE cotton futures rose first and then fell. The USDA's 2026 US cotton planting area intention was higher than market expectations, causing the futures to give back all gains and close slightly down 0.13% [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2605 closed at 15,295 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.58%, and its night - session price was 15,510 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 1.41%. The trading volume was 397,954 lots, a decrease of 7,030 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,077,502 lots, a decrease of 10,283 lots [1] - CY2605 closed at 21,545 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.14%, and its night - session price was 21,750 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.95%. The trading volume was 9,872 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 7,465 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - ICE US cotton 5 closed at 69.98 cents/pound yesterday with a daily decline of 0.13% [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 12,420, a decrease of 15 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 489, an increase of 118 [1] - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 219, a decrease of 1 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 78, an increase of 142 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: - The price of northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,554 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan from the previous day, a decline of 0.48% [1] - The price of southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,493 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan from the previous day, a decline of 0.48% [1] - The price in Shandong was 16,889 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 0.12% [1] - The price in Hebei was 16,895 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 0.09% [1] - The 3128B index was 16,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 0.16% [1] - The Cotlook:A index was 80.20 cents/pound, an increase of 0.10 cents from the previous day, an increase of 0.12% [1] - The price of pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The arrival price of pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan from the previous day, a decline of 0.01% [1] - **Spread Data**: - The CF5 - 9 spread was - 135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan from the previous day [1] - The spread between northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,260 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - Domestic cotton spot trading is mostly cold, and the spot basis is generally stable. The sales basis of southern and northern Xinjiang cotton is given [2] - The overall quotation of pure cotton yarn is stable, and the sales are average. Some spinning enterprises and traders have different sales situations [2] - ICE cotton futures rose first and then fell. The USDA's 2026 US cotton planting area intention was higher than market expectations, leading to a decline [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]