当中国人民享受假期的欢愉时，特朗普却面临着越来越多的麻烦。过去几天内，特朗普政府接连迎来了 三大坏消息，这让他不得不紧急发布声明来稳定局势，而美国财长也公开暗示中国：不要不给美国面 子。 在分析这些坏消息之前，我们先来看看美国国内的局势。目前，美国的"内战"局势愈发严峻，芝加哥等 地爆发了大规模的暴力冲突。特朗普已经派遣了国民警卫队来进行镇压，但上百人的抗议队伍与移民 局、海关执法人员发生了剧烈冲突，甚至爆发了枪击事件。先是加利福尼亚州，接着是俄勒冈州和伊利 诺伊州，似乎所有由民主党主导的州都成为了特朗普政策的打击目标。 能导致美国债务危机提前爆发，进而引发经济风暴。如果美债问题失控，整个美国经济将遭遇巨大的冲 击。 而在外部，美国和欧洲的关系也在恶化。随着俄乌战争的持续，普京显然没有停止推动俄罗斯与欧洲的 矛盾。特朗普虽然口头上支持乌克兰，但依然坚持要求欧洲购买武器再向乌克兰提供援助，这无疑让美 国在经济上受益，而欧洲却为此付出了代价。长期下去，欧洲的内部矛盾会加剧，美欧之间的隔阂也会 越来越大，而这正是普京所期待的局面。 与此同时，欧洲国家对美国的信任逐渐动摇。意大利和瑞士近期分别邀请中国外长王毅访问，显 ...

不可否认，从战略上看，特朗普这一手牌很有针对性，也抓住了美国的几个痛点，难以被简单驳斥。但美国重返南亚并非易事，现实里有不少麻烦要处 理。首先，巴国内恐怖主义问题长期存在，美资在当地曾遭受损失；即使美国把某些武装列为恐怖组织，巴基斯坦政府也并未彻底根除这些势力——这给 美方投资与安全带来不确定性。其次，中巴之间已有的战略关系和大框架并非轻易改变；同时美印关系、地区力量平衡错综复杂，一旦实际操作，牵一发 而动全身。 在中美较量的背景下，中国把"稀土"当成了一张重要牌，确实让美国感到为难。中国之所以愿意坐到谈判桌前，很大程度上是因为国内稀土储量逼近临 界，需要通过谈判寻求缓和与时间，以免被动局面继续恶化。 但特朗普并不是容易放手的人。他的团队找到了一个意想不到的办法——把目光投向巴基斯坦。眼下中美领导人很快要在韩国举行首轮会晤，这是否意味 着特朗普因此更有底气回到谈判桌上，值得关注。 据观察者网引述《金融时报》的报道，有巴方消息称，美巴正考虑在帕斯尼合建一个港口，并以此为节点把交通与基础设施向巴基斯坦中西部延伸，方便 把当地重要矿产运往美国。到目前为止，美巴官方尚未对外确认这一计划，但《金融时报》获得消息本身就像 ...

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 9 月 29 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...

Report Summary - Report Date: September 26, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The previous logic of soybean shortage has loosened due to Argentina's suspension of export taxes on soybeans and their by - products, and some domestic oil mills have started to actively purchase Argentine soybeans, shaking the shortage logic for the fourth quarter. With sufficient purchases for September and October, the supply until the end of November is generally worry - free. However, the potential supply reduction from December to January needs to closely track Argentine soybean purchases, Argentine policy continuity, and the progress of Sino - US negotiations. - The market is currently affected by Argentina's policy change and high inventory, leading to a significant price decline. Before the National Day, there is a lack of potential bullish factors, and the technical trend is weak. The market is expected to experience low - level fluctuations after a rapid decline [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Contract Performance**: - For the Soybean Meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 2922, the opening price was 2958, the highest price was 2976, the lowest price was 2951, the closing price was 2967, with a rise of 45 and a gain of 1.54%. The trading volume was 1,262,657, the open interest was 1,937,464, and the open interest decreased by 97,619. - For the Soybean Meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 2851, the opening price was 2858, the highest price was 2875, the lowest price was 2858, the closing price was 2870, with a rise of 19 and a gain of 0.67%. The trading volume was 13,790, the open interest was 43,222, and the open interest increased by 4,295. - For the Soybean Meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 2895, the opening price was 2929, the highest price was 2950, the lowest price was 2922, the closing price was 2940, with a rise of 45 and a gain of 1.55%. The trading volume was 75,971, the open interest was 479,636, and the open interest decreased by 17,194 [6]. - **External Market and Policy Impact**: The US soybean futures contract fluctuated, with the main contract at 1015 cents. Argentina suspended export taxes on all grains and by - products such as soybean oil and soybean meal. After the tax reduction, the CIF price of Argentine soybeans in China is 30 - 50 dollars/ton lower than that of the US. Some domestic oil mills have started to purchase Argentine soybeans, and there have been orders for Argentine soybean meal since mid - to - late August [6]. 3.2 Industry News - Argentina's government announced on Monday that it would suspend export taxes on all grains and by - products such as soybean oil and soybean meal until October 31 or until the total export volume reaches 7 billion dollars. Previously, the export tax on Argentine soybeans was 26%, and that on soybean oil and soybean meal was 24.5% [6][7]. - Since Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes on soybeans and grain by - products this week, Chinese buyers have purchased about 20 ships (about 1.3 million tons) of Argentine soybeans, an increase from the previously reported 10 - 15 ships. In August 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. Among them, the year - on - year growth rates of formula feed, concentrated feed, and additive premixed feed were 3.4%, 8.3%, and 7.9% respectively [18]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spread between Soybean Meal 1 - 5 contracts, the spread between Soybean Meal 5 - 9 contracts, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, the ex - factory price of soybean meal, and the basis of the Soybean Meal 01 contract. The data sources are Wind and the Research Center of CCB Futures [11][13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the dynamics of the commodity market in relation to global liquidity and monetary policy, particularly in the context of the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which are expected to influence commodity prices and demand recovery [4][11]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy and Commodity Market - The recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to create a new narrative for future rate cuts, impacting the commodity market through liquidity-driven mechanisms, demand recovery expectations, and inflation trading [4][11]. - The market often anticipates these changes, as seen with gold prices rising before the actual rate cut, followed by a "sell the fact" reaction post-announcement [5]. Economic Indicators - In August 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, primarily due to falling food prices, while the core CPI rose by 0.9%, indicating a recovery in domestic demand [5][6]. - China's PPI fell by 2.9% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed, suggesting some improvement in energy and raw material prices [6]. Export and Consumption Trends - China's export growth in USD terms was 4.4% year-on-year, but the growth rate has slowed, particularly in exports to the US, which fell by 33.1% [6]. - Domestic consumption, as reflected in retail sales, grew by 3.4% year-on-year, indicating a still-weak recovery in internal demand [6]. Commodity Supply Dynamics - Certain metals are showing signs of demand recovery, with lithium carbonate experiencing strong demand due to government policies and international orders, reflecting a 246% year-on-year increase in orders [7]. - The new energy storage initiatives set by the government are expected to drive significant growth in the lithium battery sector, with a direct investment of approximately 250 billion yuan [7]. Industrial Silicon and Coal Supply - The industrial silicon sector is undergoing a transformation towards high-quality development, with production expected to decrease by 17% year-on-year in 2025 [8]. - Recent regulatory measures in Inner Mongolia indicate a tightening of coal supply, with potential production reductions of over 61 million tons if strict compliance is enforced [10]. Market Outlook - The current financial attributes are driving commodity price volatility, with expectations of price increases supported by supply-side constraints and a shift towards a more accommodative global liquidity environment [11]. - The article suggests a strategy of buying on dips, focusing on specific commodities influenced by supply-side changes and macroeconomic events, while being cautious of potential downturns related to US economic data [11].

Report Summary 1. Market Data - As of September 19, 2025, the closing prices of various assets are provided, including commodities (e.g., coking coal at 1232.00, glass at 1216.00), A-shares (e.g., CSI 500 at 7170.35, SSE 50 at 2909.74), overseas stocks (e.g., Nasdaq at 22631.48, S&P 500 at 6664.36), bonds (e.g., 2-year Chinese Treasury bond yield at 1.48), and foreign exchange (e.g., USD-CNY central parity rate at 7.11) [1] - The weekly changes show that commodities rose by 0.32%, A-shares fell by 0.44%, overseas stocks fell by 1.98%, bonds had various yield changes, and foreign exchange also had corresponding fluctuations [1] 2. Commodity Views Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways movement [3] - Bullish logic: Smooth first - round Sino - US negotiations, policies to boost consumption, increased A - share trading volume, increased margin trading balance, and positive Shanghai real estate policies [3] - Bearish logic: Market already priced in rate - cut expectations, large - financial stocks' decline, regulatory intention to cool the market, approaching National Day holiday, and reduced ETF shares tracking the CSI 300 [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 expect a sideways movement [3] - Bullish logic: Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, central bank's liquidity injection, and long - term fundamental support for the bond market [3] - Bearish logic: Expectations for Q4 growth - stabilizing policies, high risk - appetite, and poor result of 30 - year special Treasury bond issuance [3] Energy Sector - **Crude Oil** - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 2 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways movement [4] - Bullish logic: Potential inflation in the far - term, Russian supply disruption, Asian demand, undervalued price, and Fed's expected rate cuts [4] - Bearish logic: Seasonal decline in European and American demand, OPEC's Q4 production increase, increased US distillate inventory, and US refinery maintenance [4] Agricultural Sector - **Soybean Oil** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways movement [4] - Bullish logic: Lower - than - expected US soybean good - quality rate, biodiesel policy, expected decline in October soybean imports, and Sino - US trade uncertainty [4] - Bearish logic: Argentina's export tax suspension, South American soybean sowing, high domestic inventory, inventory accumulation, and expected high US soybean yield [4] Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 5 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 2 expect a sideways movement [5] - Bullish logic: Fed's rate - cut cycle, improved downstream consumption after price decline, pre - holiday stocking demand, and entry into the traditional peak demand season [5] - Bearish logic: Neutral Fed stance, continuous inventory accumulation, weak peak - season characteristics, and slow inventory depletion [5] Chemical Sector - **Methanol** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways movement [5] - Bullish logic: Iranian plant shutdown, improved MTO profit, reduced port pressure, and macro - policy support [5] - Bearish logic: High coastal inventory, strong supply pressure, and weak pre - holiday stocking demand [5] Precious Metals Sector - **Gold** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 6 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 2 expect a sideways movement [6] - Bullish logic: Strong central bank demand, US stagflation risk, Fed's rate - cut cycle, and increased ETF holdings [6] - Bearish logic: Short - term profit - taking after rate - cut, rebound of the US dollar index and Treasury yields, and potential slowdown of rate - cut [6] Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways movement [6] - Bullish logic: Decreased port inventory, pre - holiday restocking by steel mills, reduced arrivals, and increased molten iron production [6] - Bearish logic: Increased shipments from Australia and Brazil, weak steel demand, increased shipments from non - mainstream countries, and declining steel mill profitability [6]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The stock index is expected to rise in the long - term, but the probability of a unilateral upward trend before the National Day holiday is low. It is recommended to control positions [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward trend [1]. - After the interest rate cut, the gold price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, but there is still room for growth in the long - term [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Long - term bullish, but low probability of unilateral rise before National Day, control positions [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term rate risk warning by central bank suppresses rise [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: Short - term high - level oscillation, long - term upward potential [1]. - **Silver**: Short - term strong due to market sentiment [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Pressured by profit - taking after Fed rate cut, but expected to stabilize and rise with overseas easing and domestic demand [1]. - **Aluminum**: Pressured by profit - taking, but limited downside in consumption season [1]. - **Alumina**: Weak fundamentals but limited downside as price nears cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: Social inventory increase pressures price, but Sino - US relations may boost sentiment [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term macro - dominated, may be strong, pay attention to supply and macro changes [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term oscillation, Sino - US relations may boost sentiment, pay attention to production [1]. - **Tin**: Potential low - buying opportunities in demand season [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Influenced by supply and market sentiment factors [1]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Affected by US inventory, OPEC+ production plan, and Fed rate cut [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Short - term follows crude oil, supply of raw material is sufficient [1]. Chemicals - **PTA**: Output increases, basis falls, downstream profit recovers [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Basis strengthens, but new device and hedging pressure exist [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory devices return, delivery willingness weakens [1]. - **Benzene and Styrene**: Supply increases, import pressure rises [1]. - **Urea**: Limited upside due to weak demand, supported by cost [1]. - **PE**: Price oscillates weakly due to demand and maintenance [1]. - **PVC**: Oscillates weakly with supply pressure and high near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: Upward momentum is suppressed by OPEC production and inventory [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: May break through oscillation range due to supply disruption [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Long - term bullish with de - stocking expectation, pay attention to Sino - US talks [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Recommend 11 - 1 calendar spread strategy [1]. - **Cotton**: New crop is expected to be abundant, short - term supply may be tight [1]. - **Sugar**: Expected to oscillate weakly with limited downside [1]. - **Corn**: Expected to oscillate at the bottom, focus on new - crop price [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Buy on dips, pay attention to Sino - US policy [1]. Others - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillates, focus on warehouse receipt cancellation after September delivery [1]. - **Logs**: Oscillates with stable spot price and falling foreign quotes [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Weak due to supply increase and limited downstream demand [1]. - **Shipping (Container Shipping to Europe)**: Freight rates are falling faster than expected [1].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Oils and fats [1] - Report date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Market review: In the East China market, the basis price of Grade 3 rapeseed oil from September to October is OI2601 + 220, and from November to December is OI2601 + 230; the basis price of Grade 1 rapeseed oil in September is OI2601 + 310, and in October is OI2601 + 330. The basis price of Grade 1 soybean oil in the spot market is Y2601 + 150, in October is Y2601 + 160, from October to January is Y2601 + 190, from February to May is Y2601 + 130, and from April to July is Y2605 + 200. The basis price of 24 - degree palm olein in East China in September is P2601 - 50, in October is P2601 + 0, and from October to November is P2601 + 50 [7] - Market analysis: Affected by the decline of US soybean oils and fats and the Malaysian market, the domestic oils and fats sector opened high and closed low. The EPA proposed a supplementary rule for the renewable fuel standard to solve the exemption problem of small refineries. The progress of Sino - US negotiations made the market speculate that China might purchase US agricultural products, and the soybean import volume in the fourth quarter might increase, causing funds to withdraw. The near - term rapeseed oil continued the de - stocking trend, with relatively concentrated supply, and traders mainly sold at higher basis prices. It is necessary to pay attention to the Sino - Canadian trade progress and the supply of rapeseed raw materials [7] - Market forecast: It is expected that the oils and fats will fluctuate in the near term. Soybean oil has certain support around 8200, and the fluctuation range of palm oil is approximately 9000 - 9600 [7] Group 3: Industry News - Malaysian palm oil exports: From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 742,648 tons, a 2.5% increase compared to the 724,191 tons exported from August 1 - 15. Exports to China were 11,000 tons, a significant increase compared to 8,800 tons in the same period last month [8] - Palm oil production forecast: Apex Securities analysts said that palm oil production may peak again from September to October and then decline due to favorable weather conditions [8] - Indian oil imports: In August 2025, India's palm oil imports increased by 15.76% to 990,528 tons compared to July; soybean oil imports decreased by 25.27% to 367,917 tons; and sunflower oil imports increased by 28.53% to 257,080 tons [8] Group 4: Data Overview - Data charts: Include charts of spot prices of East China Grade 3 rapeseed oil, East China Grade 4 soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm olein, basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1 spreads, US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate, and US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate [10][12][20]

Report Summary 1. Market Data - **Commodities**: Gold closed at 834.22 with a weekly increase of 2.28%, silver at 10035.00 with 2.27% increase, and aluminum at 21120.00 with 2.05% increase. Some commodities like palm oil decreased by 2.41%, and polycrystalline silicon dropped by 5.51% [2]. - **Stocks**: A - shares such as CSI 500 rose by 3.38%, SSE 50 by 0.89%. Overseas stocks like Nikkei 225 increased by 4.07%, and Nasdaq Composite by 2.03% [2]. - **Bonds**: Yield of 10 - year Chinese Treasury bonds increased by 3.99bp, and 2 - year by 0.78bp [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: Euro - US dollar exchange rate increased by 0.15%, while the US dollar index decreased by 0.12% [2]. 2. Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions, 4 are bullish, 0 bearish, and 4 neutral. Bullish factors include expected Fed rate cuts, potential new policies, large - scale reverse repurchase, and progress in Sino - US talks. Bearish factors are shrinking trading volume, possible lower - than - expected Fed rate cuts, weak domestic economic data, and a 1.4 - billion - share decrease in CSI 1000 ETF [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions, all 7 are neutral. Bullish factors are weak economic indicators, rising domestic rate - cut expectations due to Fed rate - cut expectations, and stable liquidity. Bearish factors are high stock market risk appetite and potential bond supply pressure in Q4, as well as bond fund redemptions [4]. Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 bearish, and 5 neutral. Bullish factors are expected Fed rate cuts, increased global oil demand forecast, supply disruptions, and limited shale oil production growth. Bearish factors are the end of the gasoline consumption season, weak US employment and consumption, rising US rig count, and increasing US crude oil inventories [5]. Agricultural Products Sector - **Rapeseed Oil**: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 bearish, and 4 neutral. Bullish factors are limited Canadian菜籽 supply, expected late arrival of Australian菜籽, and tight market supply. Bearish factors are abundant global菜籽 supply, high domestic rapeseed oil inventory, weak consumption, and import restrictions [5]. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 8 institutions, 6 are bullish, 0 bearish, and 2 neutral. Bullish factors are expected Fed rate cuts, supply disruptions, strong demand, low domestic inventory, and positive market sentiment. Bearish factors are potential limited Fed rate - cut space, unproven peak - season demand, high - price resistance, and impact of low - cost imported copper [6]. Chemical Industry Sector - **Urea**: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 bearish, and 4 neutral. Bullish factors are increased procurement, production cuts, inventory reduction, and price support from exports. Bearish factors are rising enterprise inventory, increased production capacity utilization, slow - recovering industrial demand, and the end of agricultural demand [6]. Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 bearish, and 5 neutral. Bullish factors are weak US employment data, central bank gold purchases, concerns about Fed independence, and a weak US dollar. Bearish factors are high market risk appetite and potential post - rate - cut pullbacks [7]. Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal**: Among 8 institutions, 4 are bullish, 0 bearish, and 4 neutral. Bullish factors are potential new policies, high market risk appetite, coal - production control, and increased iron - water and coking production. Bearish factors are high Mongolian coal imports, resumed coal production, approaching end of demand peak, and reduced downstream purchasing [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected focus on a social media application in the ongoing tensions between China and the United States, rather than traditional economic tools like tariffs, chips, or rare earth materials [1] Group 1 - The confrontation between China and the United States has shifted from economic measures to a specific social media platform, indicating a significant change in strategy [1] - The metaphor of two top martial artists deciding the fate of a breakfast dumpling shop illustrates the absurdity and unexpected nature of the current geopolitical landscape [1]