Core Viewpoint - 澳博控股's 3Q25 performance slightly missed market expectations, with net income of HKD 7.034 billion, a year-on-year decline of 6% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2%, recovering to 85% of 3Q19 levels [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for 3Q25 was HKD 0.881 billion, down 15% year-on-year but up 28% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 93% of 3Q19 levels, slightly below Bloomberg consensus estimate of HKD 0.896 billion [1] - Daily operating costs decreased to HKD 21.5 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.5% [1] Development Trends - Management expects all satellite casinos to close by December 31, 2025, with potential acquisitions of 十六浦 and 凯旋门 casinos by 澳博控股, anticipated to be completed by the end of 2025 [1] - To regain market share from satellite casinos, 澳博 plans to increase the number of sales and marketing personnel and integrate clients from existing satellite casino contracts [1] - 澳博 intends to enhance marketing rebate expenditures to convert target customers from satellite casinos to 上葡京 [1] - Capital expenditures are projected at HKD 2 billion for 2025 for gaming area upgrades, HKD 1.5-1.8 billion for 2026 for 横琴 hotel renovations, and HKD 1 billion for 2027 [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - 2025 adjusted EBITDA forecast has been lowered by 14% to HKD 3.827 billion, primarily due to the closure of satellite casinos, while the 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast remains unchanged [2] - Current trading is at 9 times 2026 adjusted EV/EBITDA, with a target price reduced by 12% to HKD 2.20, corresponding to 8 times 2026 adjusted EV/EBITDA, indicating a 20% downside from the current stock price [2]