Workflow
市场抱团
icon
Search documents
策略周报:美国关税再遇反复,抱团防守延续-20250601
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-06-01 07:56
Group 1 - The report highlights the ongoing fluctuations in US tariff policies, indicating that despite recent legal challenges, the Trump administration is likely to continue pursuing its tariff agenda, which may lead to further negotiations and uncertainties [9][10]. - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May improved to 49.5%, reflecting a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.3%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [9]. - The report suggests that the bond market is currently in a volatile phase, with a recommendation to actively allocate around the 1.7% yield on ten-year government bonds while waiting for a potential decline in interest rates [12][10]. Group 2 - In the stock market, there is an increasing risk associated with concentrated investments in defensive sectors such as banking, pharmaceuticals, and new consumption themes, with a recommendation to wait for adjustment pressures to ease before making further investments [3][12]. - The report notes that the A-share market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with a focus on defensive sectors, while high-level concentrated themes are facing increased rotation and divergence, leading to higher adjustment pressures [10][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring key indicators in both the A-share and bond markets, noting a decline in market turnover and a drop in average daily trading volume to 1,093.9 billion yuan, the lowest level since September 24 of the previous year [21][20].