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【汽车】平价智能化推进路径探讨——汽车智驾行业的梳理与思考(三)(倪昱婧)
光大证券研究· 2025-04-03 08:47
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the price range of 100,000 to 200,000 yuan is crucial for the breakthrough and mass adoption of urban intelligent driving in China, with expectations of significant growth in penetration rates by 2025 and beyond [3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The penetration rate of L2+ urban intelligent driving in China is expected to approach 10% by 2025, with rapid growth anticipated in 2026 and thereafter [3]. - The supply side is dominated by BYD, with new models from Leap Motor and GAC Toyota featuring laser radar priced below 150,000 yuan, indicating a shift in supply dynamics [3]. - On the demand side, consumers are more price-sensitive and primarily use vehicles for urban commuting, suggesting that technology and cost reduction are key to addressing supply-demand mismatches [3]. Group 2: Cost Reduction Strategies - Urban intelligent driving may achieve cost reductions through three main strategies: 1) chip downsizing, 2) eliminating laser radar, and 3) self-developed chips combined with multi-domain integration [4]. - Chip downsizing can save significant costs, but may face challenges in complex scenarios due to data loss and latency [4]. - Eliminating laser radar can enhance the upper limits of large models while achieving technical cost reductions [4]. - The combination of self-developed chips and multi-domain integration is seen as a long-term direction for cost reduction in manufacturers [4]. Group 3: AI Model Optimization - Current collaborations between automakers and DeepSeek (DS) are primarily focused on intelligent cockpit areas [5]. - The application of DS in intelligent driving is expected to be challenging in the short term, mainly focusing on cloud distillation and simulation data generation [5]. - The core challenges for AI models like DS in autonomous driving include cross-modal differences, real-time performance, and safety [5]. - In the long term, automakers are expected to leverage DS's innovative thinking to optimize intelligent driving models and further promote affordable intelligent solutions [5].
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光大证券研究· 2025-04-03 08:47
Group 1: Automotive Industry - The price range of 100,000 to 200,000 yuan is identified as a key segment for the breakthrough of urban intelligent driving in China, with various automakers adopting different cost-reduction strategies [4] - Long-term cost reduction in the automotive sector is expected to focus on self-developed chips and multi-domain integration, while DeepSeek aims to optimize intelligent driving models through innovative thinking [4] Group 2: Robotics Industry - UBTECH (9880.HK) is positioned as a rare "technology + scenario" dual-driven player in the humanoid robot sector, entering a phase of accelerated commercialization due to its comprehensive technology layout and first-mover advantage in industrial scenarios [5] - Major companies are increasingly entering the robotics industry, with VIVO announcing the establishment of "vivo Robot Lab" to venture into the home robotics field, and other companies like Yijia and Wolong Electric Drive making strategic upgrades and partnerships [6] Group 3: Company Financial Performance - Cloud Road Co., Ltd. (688190.SH) reported a revenue of 1.9 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.24%, with a net profit of 361 million yuan, up 8.73% year-on-year [6] - Hangyang Co., Ltd. (002430.SZ) achieved an operating income of 13.716 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 3.06%, but experienced a decline in net profit by 24.15% [7] - Huaron Co., Ltd. (603855.SH) reported a net profit of 462 million yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.26%, while facing challenges in the traditional oil and gas market [8] - Nine Strong Bio (300406.SZ) recorded a revenue of 1.659 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 4.75%, but saw a net profit increase of 1.70% [9]