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Can Netflix Stock Double by 2028?
The Motley Fool· 2025-07-22 07:25
Core Viewpoint - Netflix has transformed its business model and stock performance, showing significant growth despite being perceived as a mature company, with a stock increase of over 500% in the last three years [2][12]. Financial Performance - In Q2, Netflix reported a revenue increase of 16% to $11.1 billion, marking its fastest growth rate in four quarters, although the results matched estimates [6]. - The operating margin expanded from 27.2% a year ago to 34.1%, with earnings per share (EPS) rising from $4.88 to $7.19, surpassing the consensus estimate of $7.06 [8]. - Management raised its full-year revenue guidance from $43.5 billion-$44.5 billion to $44.8 billion-$45.2 billion, while also projecting a currency-neutral operating margin increase to 29.5% [9]. Business Strategy - Netflix has shifted to embrace advertising as a core business driver, utilizing its proprietary ad tech platform, Netflix Ads Suite, across all markets [7]. - The company has stopped reporting subscriber counts, making it harder to gauge growth drivers, but management indicated growth is due to new subscriber additions, ad business expansion, and price hikes [7]. Content and Viewership - Netflix's content strategy is yielding positive results, with several series and films attracting over 50 million viewers in the quarter, and members watched 95 billion hours in the first half of the year, a 1% increase [10]. - Non-English content now accounts for more than a third of total viewing, indicating the success of its local content strategy [10]. Future Outlook - While Netflix's stock may not replicate its past growth, a doubling of earnings per share (EPS) over the next five years is considered a reasonable expectation, supported by double-digit revenue growth and expanding operating margins [15]. - The stock's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is around 50, which is viewed as high for a company previously seen as mature, suggesting that further growth will require substantial merit [14].
精彩演出即将上演,奈飞为何成为流媒体之王?
美股研究社· 2025-04-22 10:02
Core Viewpoint - The company Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) is performing well despite intense competition in the streaming industry, with management successfully enhancing revenue, profit, and cash flow. The latest financial results for Q1 FY2025 exceeded analyst expectations, but analysts recommend a "hold" rating due to high stock prices and limited potential for further outperformance [1][11]. Financial Performance - For Q1 FY2025, Netflix reported revenue of $10.54 billion, a 12.5% increase from $9.37 billion in the same quarter last year, surpassing analyst expectations by $40 million [1][4]. - The company's operating income for Q1 FY2025 was $3.35 billion, with a net income of $2.89 billion and diluted EPS of $6.61, exceeding analyst expectations by $0.95 [4][7]. Regional Performance - Revenue from the UCAN (U.S. and Canada) region was $4.62 billion, a 9.3% increase from $4.22 billion year-over-year [3]. - The Asia-Pacific region saw the fastest growth, with revenue increasing by 23.1% from $1.02 billion to $1.26 billion [3]. - EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) revenue grew by 15.1%, from $2.96 billion to $3.4 billion, while Latin America experienced slower growth at 8.3%, increasing from $1.17 billion to $1.26 billion [3]. Advertising and Content Strategy - Netflix is expanding its advertising business, launching the Netflix Ads Suite to enhance services for advertisers, with more ad-related products expected to launch throughout the year [5]. - The company continues to invest in high-quality content, with popular series achieving significant viewership, such as "The Upshaws" with 124 million views and "The Night Agent" with 146 million views [6]. Future Outlook - For the entire FY2025, management expects revenue to be between $43.5 billion and $44.5 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 12.8% [8]. - The operating margin is projected to reach 29%, up from 26.71% in FY2024, with net income expected to be around $11.02 billion [9]. - Free cash flow is anticipated to be approximately $8 billion for the year [9]. Valuation Concerns - Despite strong performance, Netflix's valuation remains high, making it less attractive for value investors. Analysts find it difficult to envision further expansion of the company's price-to-earnings ratio given broader economic challenges [11].