沥青早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/08 沥 青 日期 华东现货低 价 山东现货低价 东北现货低价 盘面价格 主力基差 盘面主力-马瑞 油成本价差 韩国华东CI F 韩国华东价格 人民币 山东焦化料 2025/04/28 3520 3450 3800 3451 69 192 463 4078 4290 2025/04/29 3520 3450 3800 3430 90 258 463 4077 4260 2025/04/30 3520 3450 3800 3408 112 - 463 4076 4260 2025/05/06 3520 3410 3700 3361 129 - 455 4011 4260 2025/05/07 3500 3410 3700 3432 58 - 455 4011 4260 变化 -20 0 0 71 -71 - 0 0 0 日度点评： 山东现货持稳，市场参考价3510-3700元/吨。沥青盘面震荡，裂差利润中性水位。山东地区汽油柴油小幅上涨。沥青日产6. 3(+0)万吨。 周度观点： 本周原油端供应趋紧、油价上涨，沥青价格随之走高，山东现货小幅上涨、盘面小幅走强，开工低位 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report This week, due to the tightening supply of crude oil and rising oil prices, asphalt prices increased. Shandong's spot prices rose slightly, and the futures market strengthened marginally. With low production and a slight increase in shipments, factory inventories continued to decline while social inventories increased, resulting in stable overall inventories. The market is showing marginal improvement. Although the fundamentals have slightly improved, the short - term outlook is weakly stable, and inventories are expected to gradually accumulate at a low level in the first half of the year. The price is expected to fluctuate with crude oil, and attention should be paid to the actual inventory situation and the impact of US sanctions on raw materials. Consider long positions in distant contracts such as the 09 contract [1]. 3) Summary by Directory a) Daily Review Shandong's spot prices remained stable, with a market reference price of 3,510 - 3,700 yuan/ton. The asphalt futures market fluctuated, and crack spread profits were at a moderate level. Gasoline and diesel prices in Shandong increased slightly. Asphalt daily production was 6.3 (+0) million tons [1]. b) Weekly Viewpoint - **Price Movement**: This week, due to tight crude oil supply and rising oil prices, asphalt prices increased. Shandong's spot prices rose slightly, and the futures market strengthened marginally [1]. - **Inventory Status**: Low production and a slight increase in shipments led to a continuous decline in factory inventories and an increase in social inventories, resulting in stable overall inventories. The market is showing marginal improvement. The north has a tight supply, while the supply in East and South China is relatively abundant [1]. - **Factors Affecting the Market**: Positive factors include low inventory levels, tight and expensive heavy - oil raw materials, and a decrease in production in April. Negative factors include weak demand, weak spot prices in East and South China, and price cuts by Sinopec [1]. - **Outlook and Suggestions**: The fundamentals have slightly improved, and the short - term outlook is weakly stable. Inventories are expected to gradually accumulate at a low level in the first half of the year. The price is expected to fluctuate with crude oil. Attention should be paid to the actual inventory situation and the impact of US sanctions on raw materials. Consider long positions in distant contracts such as the 09 contract [1].