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光大期货软商品类日报1.23
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-23 01:27
Sugar Industry - The current spot price range for sugar from Guangxi Sugar Group is 5260 to 5360 CNY/ton, while Yunnan Sugar Group quotes between 5110 to 5160 CNY/ton, reflecting an overall decrease of 10 CNY/ton [2][6] - Recent rebound in raw sugar futures has not broken the range-bound pattern, attributed to declining sugar production in Brazil and supportive ethanol-to-sugar pricing, with the market currently in Brazil's off-season [2][6] - The core issue remains the estimated production for the new crushing season starting in April, with limited positive impacts from the production side at this moment, necessitating attention to the progress of northern hemisphere production [2][6] - Domestic spot prices are slowly declining, and the market lacks new drivers for further declines, with expectations of narrow fluctuations in the short term [2][6] Cotton Industry - On Thursday, ICE cotton prices fell by 0.61% to 63.91 cents/pound, while Zhengzhou cotton futures rose by 1.06% to 14730 CNY/ton, with a significant increase in open interest by 12765 contracts to 800,000 contracts [8] - The cotton 3128B spot price index increased by 75 CNY/ton to 15520 CNY/ton compared to the previous day [8] - Internationally, ongoing macroeconomic disturbances and delayed expectations for the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve until June have weakened the US dollar, leading to a lack of sustained upward momentum in cotton prices [8] - Domestically, the focus has shifted back to fundamentals, particularly pre-holiday inventory replenishment and operational conditions, with textile companies showing limited motivation for significant restocking ahead of the Spring Festival [8] - As the holiday approaches, operational rates are expected to gradually decline from high levels, indicating limited upward drivers for cotton prices in the short term, although future policy developments may provide some support [8]