财达期货｜螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 财达期货｜螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 2025-11-24 淡季需求特征尚未显现，螺矿延续偏强整理 【螺纹钢】 研究员 Z0017173 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 9 页 姓名：薛国鹏 F3073406 期货方面：本周螺纹 01 合约在空头主力减仓驱动下维持偏强整理走势。截 止周五，螺纹 01 合约收于 3057 元/吨，环比上周上涨 4 元，周 涨幅 0.13%。 从 业 资 格 号 ： 现货方面：本周螺纹主流地区价格继续小幅上调，整体成交一般。截止周 五，全国螺纹平均报价上调 26 元至 3268 元/吨；其中上海地区 螺纹价格上调 30 元至 3220 元/吨；杭州地区螺纹价格上调 10 元至 3250 元/吨；北京地区螺纹价格上调 30 元至 3220 元/吨； 天津地区螺纹价格维持不变 3210 元/吨；广州地区螺纹价格上 调 70 元至 3400 元/吨。 投 资 咨 询 号 ： 基 本 面：供给方面：全国 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 82.19%，环比减少 0.62%， 同比增加 0.26%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 88.58%，环比减少 0.22%， ...

2025 年 11 月 24 日 铝：关注下方支撑 氧化铝：基本面压力仍在 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | T-22 | | | | | 11 | T-1 | T-5 | | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | | | | | 21340 | -190 | -500 | 430 | 830 | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | | | | | 21390 | ー | l | ー | l | | LME铝3M收盘价 | | | | | 2807 | 0 | -52 | 62 | 244 | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | | | | | 267742 | 97899 | -30434 | 185640 | 122442 | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | | | | | 3020 ...

免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司 无关。 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨，投资者应合理合法使用本报告所提供的信息、建议，不得用于未经允许的其他任何用途。 如因投资者将本报 ...

| 业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 | 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年11月21日 | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | | | | | | | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | 11月20日 | 11月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | 品种 | | | | | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | 9550 | 9450 | 100 | 1.06% | 墓差 (通室S15530章准) | 475 | 60 | 415 | 691.67% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 9750 | 9800 | 50 | 0.51% | 元/吨 | 基差 (Sl4210基准) | -75 | -440 | 82.95% | 365 | | 新疆99硅 | 9000 | 8850 | 1.69% | 120 | 基差(新疆) | 725 | 260 | 465 | 178.85% | | | 月间价差 | 合约 | ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 11 月 21 日） 二、日度数据监测 | | 二、日度数据监测 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 分 | 项 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 涨 跌 | | | | | 工业硅 | | | | | 期货结算价（元/吨） | 主力 | 9390 | 9075 | -315 | | | | 近月 | 9390 | 9080 | -310 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(华东) | 9350 | 9350 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(黄埔港) | 9350 | 9350 | 0 | | | 不通氧553#现货价格 | 不通氧553#硅(天津港) | 9250 | 9300 | 50 | | | （元/吨） | 不通氧553#硅(昆明) | 9350 | 9350 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(四川) | 9050 | 9050 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(上海) | 9650 | 9700 | 50 | | | | 通氧553#硅(华 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-11-21 地缘端：以色列国防部长：必须摧毁哈马斯在加沙的地道网络，以色列军队正在不间断地工作以完成这项任务。 动态供给：动态供给：11月份剩余3周周均运力27.58万TEU，WEEK47/48/49周运力分别为27.87/26.9/27.96万TEU。 12月份月度周均运力31.3万TEU，WEEK50/51/52/53周运力分别为33.3/27/31.42/33.47万TEU。11月份共计10个空 班和1个TBN（其中MSC/PA联盟4个空班，双子星联盟1个空班，OA联盟5个空班，OA联盟的1个TBN后续预计均 转为空班）。12月份共计4个TBN和1个空班（OA联盟3个TBN，MSC/PA联盟1个TBN，MSC/PA联盟1个空班）。 12月合约:12月合约交易更多关注节奏问题，预期和现实交相辉映，估值逐步清晰，关注12月份挺价落地成色。四 季度船司需要为下一年长协谈判做准备，为了保证来年收入基本盘稳固，船司会通过供应端调节使得运价处于较 高位置。节奏方面，12月合约节奏预计首先交易涨价预期（10月中旬左右宣布11月份涨价函，10月底有部分船司 再度发布11月下半月涨价函），然后 ...

Report Information - Report date: November 21, 2025 [1][4][13][14][19][22][25][35][39][43][48][53][57][63][67][69][72][80][83][85] - Report title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Energy and Chemicals [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides short - term trend forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including trends such as supply - demand changes, price fluctuations, and trading strategies for each commodity [2][4][10][11][12] Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply is expected to be tight, with a rising unilateral price. Suggest 5 - 9 month - spread positive arbitrage, long PX and short PTA/PF/PR, and long PX and short pure benzene for hedging. The terminal polyester demand is weakening marginally [10][11] - **PTA**: The upside space may be limited, do not chase high. Cost provides support, and the month - spread view is revised to positive arbitrage [11] - **MEG**: The medium - term trend is weak. Short at high prices and maintain reverse arbitrage for month - spreads. Supply is expected to increase, and there is an oversupply situation in December [12] Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: It is in a volatile state. The supply side provides support, but the demand side from tire factories is weak, and the inventory is accumulating seasonally [13][14][17][18] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in a volatile state. Short - term prices are supported by the rubber sector, but the medium - term fundamentals of butadiene are under pressure [19][20][21] Asphalt - It follows the weak trend of crude oil. The production has decreased this week, and both factory and social inventories have decreased [22][34] LLDPE - Agricultural demand may be reaching its peak. Pay attention to supply pressure. The raw material cost is under pressure, and the downstream demand is supported by rigid needs, but the mid - and downstream inventory - holding willingness has weakened [35][36] PP - Do not short in the short term, but the medium - term trend is still under pressure. The supply is high, and the demand peak has passed. Low profits limit the downward space [39][40] Caustic Soda - The trend is still under pressure. High production and high inventory continue, and the demand side has limited support. The cost support is weak, and the long - term negative feedback from alumina production cuts may occur [43][45] Pulp - It is in a volatile state. The price fluctuation is affected by factors such as futures stability, weak demand, and high inventory [48][50][52] Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The market trading atmosphere is general, and the price has been adjusted downward in some regions [53][54] Methanol - It is in a weakly volatile state with a narrowing downward space. The supply is high, the demand from the MTO industry is under pressure, and the cost - side pricing logic weight increases slightly [57][60][62] Urea - It is expected to be volatile with support in the short term. The enterprise inventory has decreased, and the fourth - batch export quota and mid - stream replenishment may relieve the pressure [63][65][66] Styrene - It is in a short - term volatile state. The short - term aromatic hydrocarbon blending oil logic continues, and the pure benzene market has a weak chemical reality and a strong blending oil expectation [67][68] Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The enterprise production is stable, and the downstream demand is based on low - price rigid needs [69][70] LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Supply - demand expectations are tightening, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [72] - **Propylene**: The spot trend is strong, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom [72] PVC - Do not short at low levels. It is in a low - level volatile state. The futures price is at a historical low, and some devices may cut production. However, the high - production and high - inventory situation is difficult to change in the short term [80][81] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It has strengthened in the short term, with a continuous rebound at night [83] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The weak trend continues, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has slightly decreased [83] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is in a volatile state [85] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: It is in a short - term volatile state [31] - **Bottle Chip**: It is in a short - term volatile state, and the processing fee is compressed [31] Offset Printing Paper - It is in a low - level volatile state [32] Pure Benzene - It is mainly volatile in the short term. The overseas blending oil market is starting, and the chemical fundamentals are weak [34][68]

Report Overview - Research Variety: Iron ore - Report Cycle: Daily - Date of Report: November 17, 2025 - Research Analyst: Feng Jiayu [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On November 17, 2025, the iron ore futures market had prices rising in an upward - trending oscillation. The price increase was driven by rising macro - policy expectations and short - term demand recovery. However, the fundamental situation of iron ore has not fundamentally improved, and the market is in a structural game. Short - term prices are supported by policy expectations and a phased increase in demand, while medium - to long - term prices face pressure from a continuous supply surplus, shrinking steel mill profits, and high port inventories. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 750 - 820 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch include policy signals from important meetings, the sustainability of the increase in steel mill hot - metal production, and the process of port inventory reduction [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market Conditions - On November 17, 2025, the iron ore i2601 contract showed an upward - trending oscillation. The lowest point was 767.5, the highest was 791, and it closed at 788.5, with a 1.81% increase. The trading volume was 351,300 lots, an increase of 84,900 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest was 481,400 lots, an increase of 1,019 lots from the previous day [2]. 3.1.2 Variety Prices - The 12 iron ore futures contracts showed a backwardation market pattern with near - term contracts stronger than far - term ones. All contracts generally rose, with the increase ranging from 3.5 to 14 points. The total open interest of the variety was 907,493 lots, an increase of 6,657 lots compared to the previous trading day. The i2605 contract had the largest increase in open interest, with an increase of 4,639 lots [5]. 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Basis Data - In the past 5 trading days, the basis of the main iron ore i2601 contract fluctuated slightly, with a maximum of 45.9 yuan/ton, a minimum of 39 yuan/ton, and 39 yuan/ton on the reporting day [8]. 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - In the past 5 trading days, the registered warehouse receipts fluctuated slightly, with a maximum of 900 lots, a minimum of 800 lots, and 900 lots on the reporting day [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Demand Side - The steel mill hot - metal production increased slightly to 236,880 tons per day on a month - on - month basis. However, steel mill profits continued to deteriorate, the number of maintenance plans increased, the blast furnace operating rate decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the hot - metal production may decline in a step - by - step manner in the future [9]. 3.3.2 Macroeconomic Environment - Hawkish remarks from Fed officials suppressed the risk appetite for commodities. In China, the year - on - year decline in real estate investment widened, the growth rate of infrastructure investment slowed down, and terminal demand weakened seasonally [10].

01-23 11下 2000-2010 01-17~15 | | | 投资询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【了C国贸期货 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 甲醇数据日报 | | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 投资咨询号: Z0021177 | 卢钊毅 | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | 2025/11/19 | | | | 数据来源:钢联 | | | | | | | 를 | | 内蒙古北线 陕西关中 新疆（疆外） 山东临沂 太仓 | | | | | 河南 | | 现 点 | 现值 | 2002 1570 | 1968 | 1905 | | 2140 | 2015 | | 货 区 | 前值 | 2012 1620 | 1960 | 1905 | | 2140 | 2020 | | 域 | 涨幅 | (10) (50) | 8 | 0 | | 0 | (5) | | 期 号 | | MA2601 MA2605 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 2029 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Due to the high inventory and oversupply, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. Stainless steel is also expected to stay in a low - level oscillation due to weak demand, high inventory, and a downward - shifting cost center [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On November 18, 2025, the main nickel contract 2512 opened at 116,420 yuan/ton and closed at 114,840 yuan/ton, a - 1.67% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 117,416 (+14,501) lots, and the open interest was 99,682 (-7,659) lots. The main nickel contract continued its downward trend and may continue to oscillate to find the bottom in the short term. The Fed's internal division on a December interest rate cut and the rising dollar index (to 99.6) pressured commodity prices and led to the decline of nickel prices [1]. - In the nickel ore market, the trading atmosphere was fair, and prices remained stable. In the Philippines, there were tenders for 1.4% nickel ore from Eramen and 1.25% nickel ore from Benguet. Downstream nickel - iron prices were falling, and iron mills were mainly in a wait - and - see mode and had a price - pressing mentality. In Indonesia, the November (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price fell by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/wet ton, and the mainstream premium was +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [2]. - The spot price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 119,000 yuan/ton, a 1,500 - yuan/ton drop from the previous trading day. As prices continued to fall, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises increased, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands mostly rose. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 150 yuan/ton to 4,050 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 500 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 35,826 (+799) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 257,694 (+5,604) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - It is recommended to mainly use range - bound operations for single - sided trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On November 18, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2601 opened at 12,415 yuan/ton and closed at 12,365 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 92,400 (-44,713) lots, and the open interest was 177,321 (-4,171) lots. The main stainless - steel contract showed a low - level oscillation, with prices oscillating between 12,300 - 12,500 yuan/ton, breaking below the 5 - day moving average, indicating an initial short - term downward trend. Due to weak downstream demand, high inventory, and the continuous decline of nickel prices, there were still no signs of a rebound in stainless - steel prices [3]. - Spot prices continued to decline to historical lows, but the market was pessimistic, and trading did not improve significantly. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,675 (-25) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,700 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 365 to 615 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 3.00 yuan/nickel point to 899.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - A neutral stance is recommended for single - sided trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].