【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃日报：短期震荡偏强 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 8 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：玻璃主力低开高走，日内走强。120 分钟布林带三轨开口向 上，短期延续震荡偏强信号，盘中压力关注前期高点附近，支撑关注今日的低点 附近。成交量较昨日减 24.8 万手，持仓量较昨日增 67492 手；日内最高 1171， 最低 1136，收盘 1163，（较昨日结算价）涨 30 元/吨，涨幅 2.65%。 2，现货市场：整体产销向好，除西北地区价格暂稳外，其他区域均有企业 提涨。华北：市场成交向好，厂家挺价心理渐起；华东：下游刚需补货为主，价 格暂稳；华中：成交尚可，湖北个别厂家提涨；华南：下游适量采购，重心上移。 3，基差：华北现货价格 1020，基差-143 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止1月8日，全国浮法玻璃日均产量为15.01万吨，比1日-0.96%。 全国浮法玻璃产量 105.92 万吨，环比-1.32%，同比-3.9%。行业平均开工率 71.96%， 环比-1.08%；平均产能利用率 75.63%，环比-1.03%。湖南旗滨光能科技有限公 司郴州一线设计产能 1000 吨 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短期震荡偏强 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 8 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力低开低走，日内走弱。120 分钟布林带三轨开口向 上，短期震荡偏强信号，上方压力重点关注周线的 60 均线附近，支撑继续关注 日线的 40 均线附近。成交量较昨日减 15.6 万手，持仓量较昨日增 13.1 万手； 日内最高 1271，最低 1222，收盘 1239，（较昨日结算价）涨 2 元/吨，涨幅 0.16%。 2，现货市场：窄幅上涨。企业装置大稳小动，博源银根产量提升，产业供 应高位徘徊。下游采购情绪一般，多维持按需补货，低价成交为主。 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1250，基差 11 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 1 月 8 日，国内纯碱产量 75.36 万吨，环比+5.65 万吨，涨 幅 8.11%。其中，轻碱产量 34.91 万吨，环比+2.30 万吨；重碱产量 40.45 万吨， 环比+3.35 万吨。综合产能利用率 84.39%，上周 79.96%，环比+4.43%。其中氨 碱产能利用率 90.41%，环比+11.20%；联产产能利用率 74.11%，环比 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Palm Oil - Affected by a mix of bullish and bearish fundamentals, palm oil futures prices will continue to trade in a range. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are consolidating, with short - term prices holding above 8,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to whether it can effectively break through the moving average resistance and whether Malaysian palm oil can hold above 4,000 ringgit [1]. 2.2 Soybean Oil - Uncertainty in the US biodiesel policy makes CBOT soybean oil vulnerable to the movements of related varieties. Although the purchase of US soybeans by Cofco this week boosted CBOT soybean prices, global soybean supply remains ample, keeping CBOT soybeans under pressure. In the domestic market, the pre - Spring Festival stocking period and reduced soybean imports are positive factors, but CBOT soybeans may still correct after a short - term rebound, and the May contract of Dalian soybean oil faces resistance around 7,950 - 8,000 yuan [1]. 2.3 Rapeseed Oil - With limited available domestic rapeseed oil in the spot market, the market is closely watching whether COFCO will start operations on the 10th. Supported by tight spot supply, the downside for rapeseed oil in the short term is limited, and the overall trend will be a wide - range shock adjustment [1]. 2.4 Red Dates - Downstream demand is on a need - to - buy basis, with more buyers inspecting goods, but there is no significant improvement in trading volume. Spot prices are weakly stable. Driven by positive sentiment in the commodity market, futures prices rebounded, and the basis narrowed. The generation of new - season warehouse receipts is accelerating. The pre - Spring Festival stocking and actual inventory - reduction progress should be monitored. In the short term, there is no obvious fundamental driver, and futures prices will fluctuate and consolidate [2]. 2.5 Corn - In the northeast, corn trading is average, and prices are stable, while in the north port, prices declined slightly due to increased arrivals. In the north China region, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants is low. However, due to profit losses, plants are not willing to raise prices, so prices are generally stable. On the demand side, low inventory at the north port supports prices, but deep - processing plants' profit losses limit their acceptance of high - priced corn, and feed companies have sufficient inventory. Policy - wise, the targeted auction of imported corn and the start of competitive sales supplement market supply but have limited short - term impact. In the short term, the reluctance to sell and downstream restocking support the futures market, but selling pressure and policy - driven supply limit the upside. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and farmers' selling attitudes [5]. 2.6 Sugar - As the Brazilian sugarcane crushing season nears its end, its influence on the raw sugar market is diminishing. The market focus has shifted to the northern hemisphere's sugarcane production. India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is increasing, while Thailand's production is still down year - on - year. In the short term, prices are expected to trade in the range of 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, pre - Spring Festival stocking has boosted sales, and December's Guangxi production and sales data met expectations. However, as it is the peak of the sugar - making season, market participants are cautious, and price increases face resistance. Sugar prices are expected to remain in a low - level range - bound pattern [8][9]. 2.7 Apples - With the approaching Spring Festival stocking season, the trading atmosphere in the apple market has warmed up, and the number of trucks arriving at wholesale markets has increased. High - quality apples are in short supply and prices are firm, but high prices may suppress consumption, and competition from other fruits (such as citrus) has put pressure on ordinary apples' inventory. Futures prices have rebounded, and delivery profits have improved. Attention should be paid to inventory - reduction progress [13]. 2.8 Cotton - ICE cotton futures declined due to falling crude oil prices and a stronger US dollar. In the US cotton - growing areas, rising temperatures, reduced precipitation, and an increasing drought index are in line with the winter La Nina weather pattern. USDA export sales have returned to normal levels, and shipments have slowed. In the domestic market, processing enterprises are holding firm on prices, and the basis is strong. The core drivers are the expected reduction in cotton planting in Xinjiang and downstream restocking, but low - cost foreign cotton and the off - season demand limit price increases. In the short term, cotton prices are expected to remain bullish, but there is a risk of correction after continuous price increases [16]. 2.9 Eggs - Based on previous chick sales data, the number of laying hens entering the laying period in January is expected to be lower than the number of old hens leaving the flock, potentially reducing the laying - hen inventory and easing supply pressure. After continuous price increases, the downstream market is resistant to high - priced eggs, and all sectors are actively selling. Egg prices in the production areas are mixed. Market circulation is smooth, and inventory levels are low. As the traditional consumption peak approaches, downstream stocking demand is rising, but due to relatively ample supply, the main contract is expected to trade in a low - level range [18]. 2.10 Pigs - Spot pig prices have returned to a range - bound pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has declined significantly. In the north, pig sales have decreased, but high prices have dampened slaughterhouses' purchasing enthusiasm. In the south, demand has dropped sharply, providing little support for prices. Some second - fattening operations are still buying, but overall enthusiasm is low due to high current prices and weak future expectations. The market is betting on pre - Spring Festival consumption, but pigs are expected to be sold in mid - to - late January, and the overall supply in January is expected to be ample. Futures prices were previously strong due to market sentiment, but the upside is limited, and there will be pressure later [19]. 2.11 Meal - Affected by funds and sentiment, US soybean prices are strong, but the global supply - demand situation remains loose, and the expected high - yield in South America continues to suppress prices. The market is waiting for the USDA supply - demand report next Monday for new trading guidance. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans and soybean meal remains ample, but the expected future tightness supports the 3 - 5 spread and basis. The expected low arrivals in the first quarter are uncertain due to auctions and arrival schedules. The downside for soybean meal is limited, and the upside is mainly affected by policy. In the short term, with positive macro sentiment, the futures market will be range - bound and bullish [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread Data 3.1.1 Oils - **Soybean Oil**: On January 7, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,460 yuan, the May 2026 futures price (Y2605) was 7,958 yuan, up 0.58% from the previous day, and the basis was 502 yuan, down 8.39% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan, the May 2026 futures price (P2605) was 8,562 yuan, up 0.73%, and the basis was 8 yuan, down 88.57%. The import cost at Guangzhou Port for May was 8,930 yuan, down 0.18%, and the import profit was - 368 yuan, up 17.58% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,900 yuan, the May 2026 futures price (OI605) was 9,130 yuan, down 0.38%, and the basis was 802 yuan, up 4.55% [1]. - **Spreads**: The 05 - 09 spread for the three oils was 150 yuan, up 8.70%; for palm oil, it was 110 yuan, down 6.78%; for rapeseed oil, it was 14 yuan, down 73.08%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread was - 110 yuan, unchanged; the 2605 spread was - 604 yuan, down 2.72%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1,440 yuan, unchanged; the 2605 spread was 1,137 yuan, down 6.65% [1]. 3.1.2 Red Dates - On January 8, the price of the main contract (2605) was 9,150 yuan/ton, up 1.95%. The 5 - 7 spread was - 45 yuan/ton, up 35.71%, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 180 yuan/ton, up 18.18%. The basis for Cangzhou's top - grade red dates was - 75 yuan/ton, up 60%. The total number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 3,008, up 1.72% [2]. 3.1.3 Corn - The price of the March 2026 corn contract (2603) was 2,248 yuan/ton, up 1.17%. The basis was 72 yuan, down 30.10%. The 3 - 7 spread was - 36 yuan, up 21.74%. The north - south trading profit was - 21 yuan, down 31.25%, and the import profit was 267 yuan, up 3.71% [5]. 3.1.4 Sugar - The May 2026 sugar futures price (2605) was 5,281 yuan/ton, up 0.42%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 12 yuan, up 25%. The spot price in Nanning was 5,350 yuan/ton, up 0.19%, and the basis was 69 yuan, down 14.81%. Nationwide, the cumulative sugar production was 105 million tons, down 23.24%, and the cumulative sales were 35 million tons, down 42.53% [8]. 3.1.5 Apples - The price of the main contract (2605) was 8,583 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The 5 - 10 spread was 1,109 yuan, up 2.40%. The basis was - 1,383 yuan, up 2.19%. The total number of trucks arriving at three major fruit wholesale markets increased, and the national cold - storage inventory was 733.56 million tons, down 1.41% [10]. 3.1.6 Cotton - The May 2026 cotton futures price (2605) was 15,035 yuan/ton, up 1.21%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 190 yuan, down 2.70%. The Xinjiang ex - factory price of 3128B cotton was 15,574 yuan/ton, up 0.56%. The commercial inventory was 534.9 million tons, up 14.2%, and the industrial inventory was 98.39 million tons, up 4.7% [16]. 3.1.7 Eggs - The March 2026 egg futures price (03) was 3,011 yuan/500 kg, up 0.37%. The basis was 86 yuan/500 kg, up 69.26%. The 3 - 4 spread was - 253 yuan, down 1.20%. The price of egg - laying chicks was 2.8 yuan per chick, unchanged, and the price of culled hens was 3.95 yuan per catty, up 2.07% [18]. 3.1.8 Pigs - The price of the May 2026 pig futures contract (2605) was 12,260 yuan/ton, up 0.04%. The basis of the main contract was 1,215 yuan, up 6.58%. The 3 - 5 spread was - 475 yuan, down 6.74%. The spot price in Henan was 13,000 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The self - breeding profit per pig was - 35 yuan, up 73.41%, and the number of fertile sows was 3,990 million heads, down 1.12% [19]. 3.1.9 Meal - For soybean meal, the spot price in Jiangsu was 3,120 yuan, up 0.65%. The May 2026 futures price (M2605) was 2,811 yuan, up 1.26%, and the basis was 300 yuan, down 4.63%. The import crushing profit for Brazilian soybeans for February shipment was 157 yuan, up 45.4%. For rapeseed meal, the spot price in Jiangsu was 2,490 yuan, up 2.05%, and the May 2026 futures price (RM2605) was 2,419 yuan, up 1.21% [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn: The price of corn and starch futures rose in tandem on Wednesday. The spot market in the Northeast remained stable, while the price in the North China was generally stable with minor adjustments. The price in the sales area declined slightly. The short - term focus is on the price pressure around 2270, and the weekly indicators continue to have a bearish expectation [2]. - Soybean and Bean Meal: CBOT soybeans hit a one - week high on Wednesday. Domestic two - meal prices fluctuated higher with an increase of over 1%. The bean meal trading volume increased, and the inventory is expected to rise again. The range - bound thinking remains unchanged, waiting for the USDA supply - demand report next week [2]. - Palm Oil: BMD palm oil rose on Wednesday. The estimated production of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil in the 25/26 year is provided. Domestic three major oil futures prices all rose, and an oil price range - bound thinking is adopted. Attention is paid to the USDA supply - demand report on January 13th and the visit of the Canadian president to China in mid - early January [2]. - Eggs: The main contract of eggs fluctuated strongly on Wednesday, with a slight daily increase. The spot price mostly rose, and the short - term spot price continued the slight rebound trend. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the main contract can break through the long - term moving average [2][3]. - Pigs: The live - hog futures fluctuated and adjusted on Wednesday. The national live - hog price mostly rose, with local declines. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the short - term pig price can continue to rebound. It is recommended to set a dynamic stop - profit in the short term and pay attention to the technical performance of the long - term moving average of the live - hog futures main contract [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2. Market Information - Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil in January at $915.64 per ton, lower than that in December. The export tax will remain at $74 per ton, and a 10% special export tax is also levied [4]. - The estimated soybean production in Argentina in the 2025/26 year was lowered by 1% to 46 million tons, with an estimated range of 44.8 - 47.2 million tons. The current planting area is estimated to be 16.7 million hectares [4]. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from late December to mid - December 2025, among 50 important production materials, 18 product prices rose, 28 declined, and 4 remained flat. The price of live hogs (ternary) increased by 1.7% [4]. - According to SPPOMA data, from December 1 - 31, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 7.39% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.13%, and the production decreased by 8.07% [4]. - OPEC+ agreed to maintain stable oil production in Q1 2026. The organization had agreed to suspend production increases in January, February, and March last November. The next meeting will be held on February 1st [5]. 3. Variety Spreads - Charts of the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, bean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live hogs are presented [7][8][12][16]

截至12月31日，全样本独立焦化厂焦炭日均产量62.7万吨/日，周环比+0.1万吨/日，247家钢厂焦炭日均 产量46.8万吨/日，周环比+0.0万吨/日，总产量为109.5万吨/日，周环比+0.1万吨/日。 【期现】 截至1月7日收盘，焦煤期货强势上涨走势，以收盘价统计，焦煤近月2601合约+51.5(+4.75%)至1135.0， 焦煤主力2605合约+68.0(+6.2%)至1164.0，1-5价差走弱至-29.0。S1.3G75山西主焦煤(介休)仓单1230元/ 吨，环比+0.0元/吨，基差+66.0元/吨；S1.3G75主焦煤(蒙5)沙河驿仓单1180/吨(对标)，环比+31.0元/吨， 蒙5仓单基差+16.0元/吨。 【供给】 截至12月31日，汾渭统计88家样本煤矿产能利用率79.76%，环比-2.89%，原煤产量805.56万吨/周，周 环比-29.17万吨/周，原煤库存222.15万吨，周环比+17.5万吨，精煤产量410.26万吨/周，周环比-17.43万 吨/周，精煤库存148.52万吨，周环比+13.63万吨。 截至12月31日，钢联统计523矿样本煤矿产能利用率79.6%，周环比-4 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力高开高走，日内强势。120 分钟布林带三轨开口向 上，短期震荡偏强信号，上方压力重点关注周线的 60 均线附近，支撑关注日线 的 60/40 均线附近。成交量较昨日增 152.1 万手，持仓量较昨日减 15426 手；日 内最高 1277，最低 1188，收盘 1271，（较昨日结算价）涨 89 元/吨，涨幅 7.53%。 2，现货市场：价格趋稳。个别装置负荷小幅提升，检修预期较少，行业供 应高位徘徊。下游需求表现一般，多按需补货，低价成交为主。 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1250，基差-21 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 1 月 1 日，国内纯碱产量 69.71 万吨，环比-1.47 万吨，跌 幅 2.07%。其中，轻碱产量 32.61 万吨，环比-0.02 万吨；重碱产量 37.1 万吨， 环比-1.45 万吨。综合产能利用率 79.96%，上周 81.65%，环比-1.69%。其中氨 碱产能利用率 79.21%，环比-4.11%；联产产能利用率 72.77%，环比-1.08%。15 家年产能百万吨及以上规模企业整体产能利用率 8 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映 研究人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法,并不代表广发期货或系附属机构的立场,在任何情况下,报告内审仪供参考,报告中的信息或所霖 达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给 发期货特定客户及其他专业人士,版权归 广发期货所有，未经广发期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为"广发期货" 知识图强, 求实奉献, 客户至上, 合作共赢 | を业期现日报 | | | --- | --- | | 王涛庭 Z0019938 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年1月6日 | | | 原田 | | 1月5日 1月4日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | 江苏一级 8410 8410 0 0.00% | 现价 | | Y2605 7856 7862 -୧ -0.08% | 期价 | | Y2605 554 548 б 1.09% | 基差 | | 江苏5月 05 + 520 05 +520 0 - | 现 ...

2026年01月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：短期高位震荡市 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：高位震荡市 | 2 | | MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏强20260107 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:短期中枢上移 | 6 | | LLDPE：标品排产回落，现货坚挺 | 8 | | PP：存量检修不多，基差被动走弱 | 9 | | 烧碱：短期偏强，中期震荡 | 10 | | 纸浆：震荡偏强20260107 | 12 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 14 | | 甲醇：短期偏强 | 15 | | 尿素：震荡中枢上移 | 17 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 19 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | LPG：进口成本坚挺，关注负反馈兑现 | 22 | | 丙烯：需求平稳，现货小幅探涨 | 22 | | PVC：短期偏强，但上方空间或有限 | 25 | | 燃料油：转入强势，短期易涨难跌 | 26 | | 低硫燃料油：跟涨走势，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅收窄 | 26 | | 集运指数（欧线）：02补贴水，远月关注补贴 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 07 日 纸浆：震荡偏强 20260107 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.612 | 5, 530 | +82 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.614 | 5.544 | +70 | | | | 成交量(手) | 374.040 | 223. 450 | +150. 590 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量(手) | 220, 737 | 213, 721 | +7.016 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 131, 054 | 115. 576 | +15, 478 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -23.717 | -23.560 | -157 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | -12 | 70 | -82 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) | -892 | -830 | -62 | | | 月差 ...

| | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2601 | 6448 | 6400 | 48 | PF01-02 | -84 | -62 | -22 | | PF | 短纤2602 | 6532 | 6462 | 70 | PF02-03 | 0 | -56 | 56 | | | 短纤2603 | 6532 | 6518 | 14 | PF主力基差 | 3 | 53 | -50 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 165849 | 173239 | -7390 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 535 | 6.515 | 20 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 131998 | 153152 | -21154 | 短纤产销率 | 77% | 53% | 24% | | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | 瓶片2601 | 0 | 5810 | -5810 | PR01-02 | -6066 | -132 | -5.934 ...